A few I like this year who should have some value regardless in addition to massive upside if the RB1 misses time.

Zach Charbonnet
Jaylen Warren
Elijah Mitchell
Samaje Perine

2023 Late round RBs/Handcuffs

Mitchell
Warren
Bigsby

If you're drafting a zero RB built and want some guys once you fillin your WR/QB/TE/Flex

Montgomery
White
Khalil Herbert

looking forward to another season gents.

i find myself once again on the justin herbert hype train despite him costing me a championship last year with his mediocre (fantasy) play.

-threw the ball a million times with a career high completion % last year
-TD regression would presumably take care of itself even if everything around him was exactly the same as last season
-played hurt quite a bit from the early rib injury, clean bill of health now

-big Mike has always been a glass cannon but the kid they drafted is clearly his apprentice (Quentin Johnston, 6'3 215 first rounder)
-Kellen Moore has to be an improvement at OC and did wonders for Dak Prescott over the years

you guys don't need me to post about how good Herbert is, we already knew that. but to me his ceiling is QB1 overall and he's not going anywhere near that in drafts (QB 6 or 7 according to fantasy pros so far)

For one of my two leagues our Lottery determined I’ll be drafting 4th (12 team PPR). I really could see chase/JJ/kupp going in front of me and CMC falling which would be awesome.

Qb seems especially deep this year.

I took Herbert ahead of Mahones last year to 'mix it up'...I have 4th pick but in a standard scoring league. In the past I always had success with going with a strong RB duo but I just feel like Eckler is getting a touch old and is due for regression. Robinson an unkown, Barkley somewhat keen, I like Pollards situation I like but that's a reach. Chubb overdue for some regression? I dunno. I really like Kupp but he is older than I realised and makes me weak at RB2.

I'm not touching Kupp with a top 3 pick at all. After JJ & Chase, my third pick is probably Kelce. There's never been a positional advantage like he has. If you're in TE premium, he might be #1 overall. I feel like Mahomes-Kelce stack is a league winner this year (esp in 6pt TD leagues), and I'd spend a 1 and a 2 on them if it worked out that way and worry about WRs and RBs later. Both positions are really deep this year.

Ekeler should have at least one more top season. He's got a number of seasons on his legs, but they've avoided the tough carries with him and have tried to get him in space instead, so it's not as bad as a grinder RB. It seems like he should be due for some TD regression since 18 doesn't seem sustainable, but we said that last year and he "regressed" from 20 to 18. I don't know about at 4, but I'm fine with Ekeler as a first rounder again this year.

Interesting strategy, just grabbing Kelce that high seems like a reach (I get I thought, high risk high reward). Won’t he regress sometime here??

I got burned grabbing Andrews in the second round last year so a little gun shy at this position and was opting to take a lower tier guy later (someone like Friermuth or Goedart if he falls) but you’ve definitely given me something to think about

Kelce will regress at some point (more likely hit a wall), but I'm not going to try to predict that. I'm not going to draft that way in every league, so the year when Kelce hits the wall (if he doesn't retire first), if I have him, that team will be a loss. I'm OK with that.

Andrews isn't Kelce's caliber. I'd much rather have Goedert or Freiermuth in rounds 7-10 than Andrews in the 2nd (although I don't think Andrews ADP is in the second this year). If not Kelce, then I'm not touching TE before 6 or 7.

Glad to see this thread get created and at least getting some posts. I've hardly started doing any research yet so I appreciate this thread as a reminder and somewhat of a jumping off point. From reading the above it sounds like WR's early this year over RB's; I also feel like QB is pretty deep, guys like Prescott, Rodgers, Watson, and Wilson can be had fairly late certainly at least one of those will have a decent fantasy year and would be worth waiting on.

WR early is definitely the trend this year for sure. There are typically 7 sometimes 8 WRs in the first round of 12 team leagues this year, and I think JJ and Chase are the consensus top 2 overall (when was the last time two WRs were the clear top 2 picks).

Yeah I think quality RBs are going to fall and be easy to scoop up

In a $20 buy in league at work. Everyone seems motivated and competitive so looking forward to it.

12 team, full PPR. I’m drafting at the #4


Haven’t played in a few seasons. Looked at the top 10 WR and barely recognized most names.

If Jefferson or Chase are available at 4 I'd take them. Best way to start a PPR league in my opinion.

It's not likely at 4. JJ and Chase are the top two off the board this year in most drafts. I guess there is a chance that Chase slips based on Burrow's injury, but that's definitely not how it was going before the injury.

I’d be shocked if that happens in any draft. The likely pick here is best RB available, Kelce, or Kupp/Tyreke Hill

I could see 2 of CMC, Ekeler, or Kelce going in the first 3 picks in some home leagues. Could have even thrown Kupp in that group as well before he got injured. Some sites like ESPN are notoriously retarded when it comes to rankings in their draft rooms too so someone might see like 9 RBs ranked in the first round and think they better take one with an early pick.

Just mentioned them since he said he's unfamiliar with many of the current top WRs and if he has a chance at 1 he should take it.

Yeah, if he's there at 4, I think it's a great pick (almost must-draft...). At 4, I'm perfectly fine with Kelce (or Tyreek or CMC) if JJ and Chase are first off the board, too.

that wasn't such a crazy idea this time a year ago. why not right? they had just signed big Mike to an extension after he had a great 2021. Allen was healthy. I saw no red flags on Herbert. Then he cracked his ribs and became a checkdown machine especially after Williams turned into a glass cannon and missed a bunch of time.

I think one of the biggest wildcards of the first few rounds is Mark Andrews. Mark was not near elite last year. I know everyone assumes it was just because of Lamar missing time but I'm not so sure. '21 Andrews might be the mirage and the real thing is a good-not-great TE that isn't worth drafting multiple rounds ahead of a guy like Dallas G or even Njoku/Engram

Lamar missed time in '21 as well yet Andrews continued to dominate. I'm wondering if the league caught up to him a bit or it was just one of those things. His ADP barely gives you a discount as we speak; he's late 20s overall right now. I'd much rather grab a guy like Olave, Slim Reaper Smith, Etienne etc and deal with TE later. For perspective Hockenson is going a good 15 picks later, Dallas a good 40+ picks later.

Yeah, it's Kelce or wait on TEs for me this year. Andrews regressed. Hockenson is probably my TE2, but he's not worth reaching for. Guys like Goedert, Engram, Freiermuth, Njoku, Pitts, Waller, etc are all going to be inconsistent and unpredictable and there are a bunch of guys in the same tier, so I'd rather see which one falls than try to differentiate and reach for my favorite one of that group.

Who should I take at #8 in a 12 team league? I haven't played FF since 2005, so no idea what I'm doing. LOL.

well it's hard to say, you won't know who is available until your pick. Generally it'll be one of these guys;
Saquon
Kelce
Tyreek
Bijan Robinson

your settings may influence all this. if it's a full PPR league the receivers will probably be flying in the first round. there's no concrete answer to this, and if you don't know what you're doing, stick to the general rankings provided in whatever format you're using

I'm not touching Saquon in the first this year. He basically ruined the season of the people who drafted him last year with how ordinary he was in the second half after a scorching start. I love Saquon. He might be my all-time favorite college player, but I'm out on him in fantasy now (unless he really falls).

Do you know the roster settings (how many of each position you start) and if there's any points per reception (ppr)?

The Bijan hype train seems to be enormous right now. All the experts seem to think he’s going to have breece hall numbers and then some.

that's fair to say although you can't blame people for looking at his overall season and seeing him as a top 3-5 back. you know he's going to be on the field all the time, you know he has great hands and an established relationship with DJ. he got his one-year deal with incentives to push it. i don't want to use a mid first on him either but for the right price, i'm still in. there are only maybe 5 top guys at RB you can actually trust this year.yes and why not? i'm aboard the hype train for him too. the falcons will want to look smart in drafting him. they aren't going to scat-back him. he will get his chance. look at how guys like zeke and saquon did their rookie years. this isn't a "wait and watch" scenario. i bet they give him the ball 250 times plus a bunch of catches. that offense was very strong on the run LY.

LY;
Allgeier 210 carries for 1k+ (nice player but he'll obviously take a back seat)
Cordarrelle Patterson 144 carries for 695 (again nice player but come on. and he's 31 years old now)

that's about 5 YPC across 350 carries for two guys who are nowhere near as talented to Robinson.

One of the best prospects ever and the best landing spot will do that. Wouldn't be surprised to see him go right after CMC.

Traditional settings and PPR--yes.

Back in the day you always went RB first, but now I've heard to go WR or even QB if one of the top 2 are available. With 12 teams, it seems like it is going to be slim picken's pretty quick though.

Bijan? Really?

A lot of RB's taken in Round 1 of the actual NFL draft tend to bust....

i grabbed those names off of the current ADP list on fantasypros. but objectively I'd have no problem taking him late first.

besides the reasons i stated in my last post about the Atlanta run game, here are some round 1 (real life draft) RBs recently taken, so I'm not sure who you are referring to as a "tend to bust"
Todd Gurley
Fournette
Saquon
Mccaffrey
Josh Jacobs
Zeke
Helaire

all those guys were at least good (Helaire, Jacobs, Gurley) or fantastic (saquon, zeke) their rookie seasons. it's also a matter of opportunity. example - Rashaad Penny was a first round pick but didn't get the job that year (Chris Carson)