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» More General Categories » Education/Career/Finance » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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post 1668355563 09-23-2022, 02:16 PM
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#331
  1. MarioMiami305
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior
My total lay assessment: QE should have backed off in Fall of 2020, but no way Trump was going to risk having dow drop a few points since his re-election was already unlikely. Biden should have immediately put the brakes on, but instead he slammed his foot on the gas pedal.

2 pretty big fukk ups, IMO. Think if 2020 weren't an election year, we would be in better shape. Just bad luck.

In any case, the bold reminds me of this quote:
umm...do you realize the fed has been doing QE and 0% intrest rates for like 12 years?
-germ theory is 100% fake
-raw meat , raw eggs , raw butter, raw milk everyday crew
-no alcohol crew
-moisturize with butter and wash face with milk crew
post 1668356873 09-23-2022, 02:41 PM
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#332
  1. ghostfacedup
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Cry more snowflake. Why don’t you go post in your thread with your friends.

If you don’t see fed did far more than politicians you are blind and ignorant.
fed was pressured early not to raise rates by Biden admin, didn't want stock market to fall after rising under Trump. Put 2 and 2 together. If you voted for this, you should be exiled.
post 1668356923 09-23-2022, 02:42 PM
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#333
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
As poster above said both sides have done it around election time. Tbh when trump was railing against hikes I thought we needed them then and not those sissy 0.25 fukkin hikes.

That said forgiving student loans definitely isn’t helping any causes and I’m almost certain if fed gets what they want (unemployment 5%+) they are going to push student loan payments out AGAIN.
we barely had any inflation or inflated energy under Trump, barely any. It's called management.

You idiots could simply look up quotes by Janet Yellen (and yes, you **** voted for her as well essentially, great job goys). Why don't you turds actually figure who runs things, bitches.
post 1668357503 09-23-2022, 02:56 PM
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#334
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By ghostfacedup
fed was pressured early not to raise rates by Biden admin, didn't want stock market to fall after rising under Trump. Put 2 and 2 together. If you voted for this, you should be exiled.
Yes. So we all agree both sides have done it. And I certainly did not vote for it.

If you are a political zealot/lunatic you should be beaten with a hose till you realize neither extreme figure is good.

Not imply you are. I’m just fuking sick of kunts running around acting like their favorite political man is perfect. Our system sucks. Neither side seems to do well at keeping balance. Arguing politics is useless. Neither side has a perfect solution for the masses they just try to appease 51% of the country at the expense of everyone else. I think we are diverse enough as a country now that this does not work.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668358223 09-23-2022, 03:10 PM
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#335
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GOOG can suck my fukin nuts. What an absolute cats breakfast of a chart on that pile of steaming dog shiet.

Having said that, might buy more.
post 1668358493 09-23-2022, 03:18 PM
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#336
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Yes. So we all agree both sides have done it. And I certainly did not vote for it.

If you are a political zealot/lunatic you should be beaten with a hose till you realize neither extreme figure is good.

Not imply you are. I’m just fuking sick of kunts running around acting like their favorite political man is perfect. Our system sucks. Neither side seems to do well at keeping balance. Arguing politics is useless. Neither side has a perfect solution for the masses they just try to appease 51% of the country at the expense of everyone else. I think we are diverse enough as a country now that this does not work.
Yes. Both sides have done it. But democrats are FAR worse and it’s not even debatable.
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1668358773 09-23-2022, 03:24 PM
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#337
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By MarioMiami305
umm...do you realize the fed has been doing QE and 0% intrest rates for like 12 years?
Yeah, we've had close to 0 interest for a long time.

Off the top of my head (feel free to google and correct me), we had QE at some point after the 2008 crash, but they turned it off. It wasn't on super long, and not as aggressive as 2020.

In 2020 QE turned back on again and withway more aggression than whatever they did in 2011/12/13.

Low interest rates can cause inflation. But QEreally causes inflation.
mo e
post 1668359913 09-23-2022, 03:55 PM
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#338
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
If market knew that fed would be doing either 75bps or 100bps, and it turned out to be 75bps, why wasn't this atleast priced in beforehand? In the past unless I'm mistaken there wasn't this much of a move after a fed announcement.

Also did anyone catch when Jpow said they hope to bring inflation down to 2% by end of the year? Isn't it unrealistic for this to happen, and wouldn't Jpow know it's unrealistic? Why is he leading everyone on?
Market probably moved based on his remarks (less than optimistic).
mo e
post 1668362433 09-23-2022, 04:57 PM
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#339
  1. GreatReset1
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This is Biden's America. This economy will crumble under the empty suit that is Biden. Rob2Park**** and CarbonBeta wanted this. They deserve this.
post 1668362833 09-23-2022, 05:06 PM
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#340
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By GreatReset1
This is Biden's America. This economy will crumble under the empty suit that is Biden. Rob2Park******* and CarbonBeta wanted this. They deserve this
Bruh why you so mad I’m your moms favorite conservative miscer. Is it because I mog you in every way imagineable and even though you wanna be me I deny you? Hop of my kawk and get some money to buy puts and learn to trade like the rest of us.

My WBA puts doubled today
F puts were pretty meh
My SMR puts did well- the $12.5 are almost ITM.

I shouldda left my CCs on sofi in place but it’s not a big deal. Trying to decide if I want to get assigned some shares with CSP or if I just want to try and wait for a more certain bottom.

Tempted to start accumulating DMS warrants again for the buyout offer at $2.5 I just don’t know if the party offering can back out if they don’t get the necessary financing in place and idk how hard that will be with market conditions and interest rate hikes
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668365163 09-23-2022, 06:05 PM
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#341
  1. Destor
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior
Market probably moved based on his remarks (less than optimistic).
Yeah the market moved based on the hawkish forecast, 0.75 next meeting and 0.50 after that is now the expectation and I think it was previously 0.50 and 0.25.

The median among Fed officials is now hitting 4.4% by the end of the year and 4.6% next year but there’s a wide spread of opinions about what happens in 2023.

0.75 is all but locked in for the next meeting unless something dramatic happens, there was only one dissenter and every other Fed official has another 0.75 coming
post 1668365853 09-23-2022, 06:20 PM
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#342
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By ghostfacedup
we barely had any inflation or inflated energy under Trump, barely any. It's called management.

You idiots could simply look up quotes by Janet Yellen (and yes, you **** voted for her as well essentially, great job goys). Why don't you turds actually figure who runs things, bitches.
Do you have memory loss? Trump plowed in cares act on top of fed going max QE and 2 years of 0 percent fund rate. Cares act directly went to average folks handing free money which caused even bigger demand this causes INFLATION... (this was not his fault no matter who is in power had to do this)

Plus did covid happen or not? Where world shut down and opened can of worms on geopolitical issues. Suddenly global economy is not close as it was thought. Those computer chips are not easy to get as they were etc Supply chain issues went out of whack.

This opened door for de-globalization.

Covid was the thing that derailed 40 years of friendly monetary policy of free money that allowed companies that turned no profit for 20 years to prosper.


Amazon turned profit when?

Tesla the best example turned profit when?

What was Elon doing since 2009 on verge of bankruptcy suddenly comes in this amazing free fed money (which is your tax money) handed to him on platter and guy becomes richest man in world.

Funny how that works doesn't it.

You hand free money to rich and they create huge gap between rich and poor creating even bigger income inequality. How riveting.

Now no matter what party is in power they have the exact same problem now called populism....wealthy 10% own everything and the gap got even bigger after covid.



That kid that will graduate college in 2-3 years will not be able to afford house.

That same kid will demand government does something about. They will vote in who ever will promise them tax cuts / help etc.

Hence here comes first time home credit tax...(this creates inflation)



This is what 40 years of friendly monetary policy looks like.



Fed funds rate.

Greatest bull run in you life time happened from 2010 to 2020.

Until covid happened which could been excuse really for Fed to go time for music stop once you realize there is no hope in hell to pay down national debt.

post 1668366023 09-23-2022, 06:23 PM
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#343
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Destor
Yeah the market moved based on the hawkish forecast, 0.75 next meeting and 0.50 after that is now the expectation and I think it was previously 0.50 and 0.25.

The median among Fed officials is now hitting 4.4% by the end of the year and 4.6% next year but there’s a wide spread of opinions about what happens in 2023.

0.75 is all but locked in for the next meeting unless something dramatic happens, there was only one dissenter and every other Fed official has another 0.75 coming
75bps wasn't the problem.

Market priced that in. Market has priced in 3.5% Fed fund rate till March next year actually.

This was the problem.

Huge revision compared to June fed meeting.





Plus you had major phuck up.

Where everyone in market was expecting August inflation to come in 7.8-8 percent.

They all thought great crude is down / Energy is big component of CPI.
post 1668372853 09-23-2022, 08:53 PM
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#344
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
^^ out of curiosity, if you had to guess, how much has selling calls reduced your cost basis on sofi?
Hard to say. I got fukked on both calls and CSP during the drop and I had 15 $17.5C that were leaps for jan 2023 and I had 20-30CSP at various points. Net option gain has been $4,660. I've gotten assigned 1,900 shares and I'm down close to $13,000 on them as of today.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668373033 09-23-2022, 08:56 PM
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#345
  1. Carbonfibre
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5 minutes of your time.

this guy almost had heart attack today.

post 1668374453 09-23-2022, 09:22 PM
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#346
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
Cot damn $4,660 off sofi options, I expected much less. Their premiums are terrible but I guess when you have thousands of shares it adds up. There doesn't seem to be any "safe" covered call strike that yields decent premium, like right now for one month expiry at $6 strike there is .20, but $6 is quite a risk of shares getting called away.

I'm sitting on 1400 shares @ $8 cost basis. If ameritrade's gainskeeper wasn't so misleading I could've broke even and even sold at profit during the last rally to $8.40, but I thought my cost basis was higher so here I am bag holding now
My chit is a mess. I lost like $5k on those $17.5C alone. I had to keep pushing my CSP out further and further taking losses along the way until I managed to unload the last of the October ones when shares spiked last earnings and netted $2k which almost erased the losses from CSP gone bad. I started selling the puts at $15/share so I did fairly well at unwinding/defending my positions. So net loss on 1900 shares is still $8,000 or something. Tbh I still think very highly of Sofi and am going to be increasing position closer to $4. I'll do the same thing I've been doing and I'll sell $4 CSP-- March $4CSP for $50 doesn't look bad, but I might wait till closer to $70-80 if possible and go for 10-20 contracts.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668374943 09-23-2022, 09:33 PM
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#347
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
5 minutes of your time.

this guy almost had heart attack today.

lol poor guy - was a good watch. fuark, maybe cathie wood was right about deflation risks.

Oh well, weather it out and this time next year QE will be turned back on.
mo e
post 1668377613 09-23-2022, 11:11 PM
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#348
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
5 minutes of your time.

this guy almost had heart attack today.

Old fella watching his retirement fund disappear 😅
post 1668395643 09-24-2022, 10:34 AM
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#349
  1. Venom08
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As chitty as these sell-offs have been, if you're not DCA'ing you're not going to be happy when we run up to ATHs again. The fact of the matter is that assets will appreciate even though we'll be in a recession. It's weird times.
post 1668399483 09-24-2022, 12:19 PM
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#350
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Originally Posted By Venom08
As chitty as these sell-offs have been, if you're not DCA'ing you're not going to be happy when we run up to ATHs again. The fact of the matter is that assets will appreciate even though we'll be in a recession. It's weird times.
a.k.a the sling-shot move up is imminent
post 1668399773 09-24-2022, 12:25 PM
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#351
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For once I agree with venom
post 1668405673 09-24-2022, 03:01 PM
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#352
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Venom08
As chitty as these sell-offs have been, if you're not DCA'ing you're not going to be happy when we run up to ATHs again. The fact of the matter is that assets will appreciate even though we'll be in a recession. It's weird times.
Those EUO calls absolutely printing. glad you are back to making solid gains
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668460103 09-25-2022, 07:08 PM
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#353
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All currencies crashing right now. Didn’t think it would dump much more but could be another 2-3% red day coming at this rate
post 1668460633 09-25-2022, 07:17 PM
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#354
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GBPUSD flush and halt is super phucked up.

British pound went to levels back to 1985.

There is some serious currency issues going on.

post 1668461463 09-25-2022, 07:33 PM
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#355
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Bye bye Britain


https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...us-2022-09-26/
post 1668467563 09-25-2022, 10:35 PM
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#356
  1. SipNPiz
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Who woulda thought the consumer coin (USD) was the strongest coin
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1668470203 09-26-2022, 01:11 AM
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#357
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most people these days are saying to stay cash but these dips are nice. likely to see even lower after earnings?
post 1668476503 09-26-2022, 06:51 AM
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#358
  1. taf1968
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So much for the people who were saying the USD was on its way out as the ww currency for business.
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*

**Distal Bicep Rupture Crew (Feb 2013)** -- recovery log: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=151942933
**Extreme Dips Crew** - http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=136113651
post 1668477083 09-26-2022, 07:05 AM
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#359
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Might throw 50k into chit like QYLD, JEPI, etc since 100kish is just rotting away in my checking account. Might as well grab monthly dividends. Someone tell me I'm not stupid.
**Drinks colon cleanse for fun crew**
post 1668477333 09-26-2022, 07:15 AM
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#360
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By taf1968
So much for the people who were saying the USD was on its way out as the ww currency for business.
Rest of the world is in much worse condition than here.

That being said.

Since everything is manipulated these days.

This might come around again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord
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