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Quick Navigation Bottom Misc
Forum » More General Categories » Education/Career/Finance » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1705567581 08-28-2024, 08:32 AM
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#6931
  1. taf1968
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩




So what's up with SMCI lol?
Hindenburg report, I think.
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*

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post 1705568091 08-28-2024, 08:48 AM
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#6932
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Sounds like SMCI has been engaging in some accounting shenanigans that are now coming to light

Delaying their 10-K and the reasoning behind it seems to all but confirm Hindenburg’s report
post 1705568241 08-28-2024, 08:53 AM
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#6933
  1. Abzu
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Originally Posted By taf1968⏩
Hindenburg report, I think.
The timing feels a little weird.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1705568641 08-28-2024, 09:00 AM
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#6934
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
The timing feels a little weird.
They delayed the 10-k today though.

Also what was your low target for WBA? I think you said $7 or 8$? I didn’t have a number I just assumed it would be whenever they announce they are cutting dividend to $0.01
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1705568921 08-28-2024, 09:07 AM
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#6935
  1. Abzu
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NVDA under $125.
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
They delayed the 10-k today though.

Also what was your low target for WBA? I think you said $7 or 8$? I didn’t have a number I just assumed it would be whenever they announce they are cutting dividend to $0.01
I'm planning on entering right around $8 and I will let you know when I do.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1705569161 08-28-2024, 09:11 AM
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#6936
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
NVDA under $125.

I'm planning on entering right around $8 and I will let you know when I do.
I’ve got an order for 2 more 1/2026 calls $15 for $85 each. Just averaging down slightly to probably make a little gain at some point. I’m figuring I’ll go down to the $10 strike for the real money. Unsure if I could go with the June 2025 chain or if that is too soon. Gotta wait till they have a legitimate plan to be profitable again and maybe sell off their boots group too. Might not hurt if they can sell a piece of their primary care business too.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1705569411 08-28-2024, 09:21 AM
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#6937
  1. ScrillaIsBake
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My whole watchlist is in the red rn, broootal

I'm still up 25% on NVDA, wondering when to offload or just hold long term
post 1705569711 08-28-2024, 09:28 AM
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#6938
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I’ve got an order for 2 more 1/2026 calls $15 for $85 each. Just averaging down slightly to probably make a little gain at some point. I’m figuring I’ll go down to the $10 strike for the real money. Unsure if I could go with the June 2025 chain or if that is too soon. Gotta wait till they have a legitimate plan to be profitable again and maybe sell off their boots group too. Might not hurt if they can sell a piece of their primary care business too.
I just reviewed it again and you are right, the 1st target is ~$9, the second target is ~$8.65, the third target is ~$8 and the final target is ~$6.90.

You could buy earlier dates by staggering the strikes to be closer to the money and then selling those first as WBA hits your price targets.

I generally buy the safe options and lotto tickets but the lottos are the ones that go out into 2026 as you need time for those to develop.

The further dates you can buy way OTM on strike or further than you would usually feel comfortable.

I would still buy the $10 if it was reasonably priced, if not then I try to find a better deal.

I would start to move to a better strike as WBA hits the lower price targets.

I don't think I'm buying at the current price target of $9 but it would safe.

I hate paying too much when I feel confident WBA will go under $9.

I sometimes miss trades doing this though lol KR comes to mind.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1705570001 08-28-2024, 09:37 AM
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#6939
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
I just reviewed it again and you are right, the 1st target is ~$9, the second target is ~$8.65, the third target is ~$8 and the final target is ~$6.90.

You could buy earlier dates by staggering the strikes to be closer to the money and then selling those first as WBA hits your price targets.

I generally buy the safe options and lotto tickets but the lottos are the ones that go out into 2026 as you need time for those to develop.

The further dates you can buy way OTM on strike or further than you would usually feel comfortable.

I would still buy the $10 if it was reasonably priced, if not then I try to find a better deal.

I would start to move to a better strike as WBA hits the lower price targets.

I don't think I'm buying at the current price target of $9 but it would safe.

I hate paying too much when I feel confident WBA will go under $9.

I sometimes miss trades doing this though lol KR comes to mind.
Lmao yeah that was a solid one. I got stuck in Payo warrants for legit 2 years though so saves you that hassle. Usually open a position so it stays on my screen which is why I initially bought.

Unless they have really bad news I don’t know how far below $8 they can possibly go. Seems like a majority of bad news is already priced in and I honestly am starting to think even dividend cut should be about priced in and might give shares a pop once announced. I’m trying to wait a little bit and see if IV will drop a little before I continue buying full tranche 1 and consider if when I go for tranche 2.

Also interesting that even as they go to close stores they in the recent past just bought a bunch of rite aid locations in Michigan…

Edit: IV close to 60… ideally for a big buy I’ll try to wait till it’s closer to 40
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1705570381 08-28-2024, 09:49 AM
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#6940
  1. SipNPiz
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I love reading about companies struggling with financial controls and how it undermined their reputation, lowers bond ratings etc. the only thing worse than poor financial controls is a good ol Ponzi scheme.
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1705570921 08-28-2024, 10:03 AM
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#6941
  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By ScrillaIsBake⏩
My whole watchlist is in the red rn, broootal

I'm still up 25% on NVDA, wondering when to offload or just hold long term
Why do people get upset about a sale? Stocks going up does you no good, you should be happy to buy low,

My take on your NVDA dilemma:

personally I don’t have any shares of NVDA unfortunately, I’m picking up a few hundred bucks every week selling options on it with very low Delta, and if there is a giant dip I may get assigned and take possession of the shares, which is fine, but if I did have shares, it would be a classic mistake to sell now, you cannot time earnings, you don’t have the inside information, you will never catch the dip buy after either, even if you are correct this time You sell and it goes down, you’re just instilling bad habits, this constant jumping in and out of the market is what your broker and Wall Street wants you to do, this is how they make money, stock like NVDA you should never be selling at all, just borrow against your portfolio. If you were up 400%, yeah obviously sell some, maybe sell 10% or even 1/3 if the market is very toppy, but no more.
post 1705571931 08-28-2024, 10:43 AM
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#6942
  1. Destor
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NVIDIA is too expensive, the risk/reward doesn’t seem to be there

It’s a cyclical, one day the companies will stop spending like crazy on AI chips and the numbers will come down. Might not be for a couple years, who knows.
post 1705573621 08-28-2024, 11:29 AM
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#6943
  1. SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
NVIDIA is too expensive, the risk/reward doesn’t seem to be there

It’s a cyclical, one day the companies will stop spending like crazy on AI chips and the numbers will come down. Might not be for a couple years, who knows.
Pretty soon shareholders and board members at these companies buying NVDA chips will realize the $40B they invested in AI chips has a ROI of 0.2% until we get to good general AI I’m not betting big on LLM changing the business world.
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1705574201 08-28-2024, 11:44 AM
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#6944
  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Pretty soon shareholders and board members at these companies buying NVDA chips will realize the $40B they invested in AI chips has a ROI of 0.2% until we get to good general AI I’m not betting big on LLM changing the business world.
That’s a pretty big statement, you think a few dozen people sitting in the board meeting at Google just casually decided to toss $100 billion on the computer chips without knowing exactly what the consequences will be?

They is gonna sit around and wait and then one day go oh ****, that 100000,000,000 didn’t buy us Jack ****!

Maybe before we spend 100 billion we should consult the team of experts that can run various test tasks and models for us first? Oh wait, we have done that, but did we ask sipnpiz tho?

Obviously nah videa can fall to $50 from here, or it can go to 200, but I’m just sayin
post 1705574241 08-28-2024, 11:46 AM
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#6945
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
NVIDIA is too expensive, the risk/reward doesn’t seem to be there

It’s a cyclical, one day the companies will stop spending like crazy on AI chips and the numbers will come down. Might not be for a couple years, who knows.
Can be, but I remember people saying the same thing when videa was $800 and $500, as well as 300 as well as 100 etc.
post 1705575041 08-28-2024, 12:04 PM
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#6946
  1. SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
That’s a pretty big statement, you think a few dozen people sitting in the board meeting at Google just casually decided to toss $100 billion on the computer chips without knowing exactly what the consequences will be?

They is gonna sit around and wait and then one day go oh ****, that 100000,000,000 didn’t buy us Jack ****!

Maybe before we spend 100 billion we should consult the team of experts that can run various test tasks and models for us first? Oh wait, we have done that, but did we ask sipnpiz tho?

Obviously nah videa can fall to $50 from here, or it can go to 200, but I’m just sayin
That’s exactly what I’m saying it’s all fomo.
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1705575821 08-28-2024, 12:28 PM
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#6947
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NVIDIA going to $200 would require adding almost $2trillion in market cap (unlikely) and would only be a 60% increase (not much)

That’s where I’d land with the risk vs reward angle, it’s unlikely the stock moves that much higher and if it does the benefits are limited unless you put big big money into it.

Need 10-baggers,5-baggers minimum
post 1705576961 08-28-2024, 01:01 PM
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#6948
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Bought Nvidia on margin. Just one paycheck. Share count is one nice round number. I’ll probably keep the shares either way.
post 1705577091 08-28-2024, 01:05 PM
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#6949
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I think the btc halving needs to couple with a surge in demand enough for the supply cost curve to matter. We’ll probably noticed steeper climbs and dives soon.

Also people are probably waiting for the election to know how much they should allocate.
post 1705581231 08-28-2024, 02:55 PM
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#6950
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NVIDIA proposing a $50b buy back, they need to crash the valuation for that to even make sense because $50b isn’t chit on a $3trillion valuation

1.6% of the float as of the close
post 1705582151 08-28-2024, 03:15 PM
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#6951
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I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1705586861 08-28-2024, 05:05 PM
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#6952
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Originally Posted By generalserpant⏩
bought nvidia on margin. Just one paycheck. Share count is one nice round number. I’ll probably keep the shares either way.
r.i.p.
post 1705593841 08-28-2024, 08:31 PM
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#6953
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
r.i.p.
That is a little dramatic don't you think? lmao
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1705595381 08-28-2024, 09:26 PM
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#6954
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Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
r.i.p.
you think it's a sell?
post 1705595401 08-28-2024, 09:27 PM
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#6955
  1. SipNPiz
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Wholesale gasoline gapped down, lowest level since January
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1705596631 08-28-2024, 10:16 PM
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#6956
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The move in NVIDIA itself isn’t crazy as long as it doesn’t trigger anything cascading across the broader market tomorrow
post 1705597081 08-28-2024, 10:40 PM
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#6957
  1. TugOfPeace
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seems like a bad time for SOXL. my cost basis at $53, I want to avg down but I'm afraid with how fast this can move downwards. maybe I'll bite in the high $20s
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
post 1705597381 08-28-2024, 10:52 PM
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#6958
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
seems like a bad time for SOXL. my cost basis at $53, I want to avg down but I'm afraid with how fast this can move downwards. maybe I'll bite in the high $20s
Lmao Tug I got a lot of love for you fella, but I think you trade too emotionally to be holding a 3x ETF. Not to mention you really shouldn't hold those long term. They are meant for short technical trades which I am sure you know.

Broader markets will weather NVDA move fine I imagine. Their results were good, just not the blowout that they once were, but once your market cap pushes past 2T pretty much nothing they offer will suffice.

Feelzweirdmane that I've got a pretty substantial position going in RILY which could very easily go under and yet I'm not in the slightest nervous. Even if it did the last couple trades I made would keep me in the green for 2024 even though I had 500+ options expire worthless on NYCB already this year. This is why I like my trading strategy of hunting for 10 baggers because fukking up a few trades doesn't wreck my entire year.

In other news tonight was a night for the boys sorry for my intoxicated rambling.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1705597801 08-28-2024, 11:18 PM
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#6959
  1. TugOfPeace
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^^I've actually been pretty patient with my trades the past few years. SOXL was just poor timing on my part, I bought 50 shares after a steep dip to $57, then bought 50 more at $47. Did not expect it to go all the way down to $27ish lmao. It happened so fast! I was expecting a dead cat bounce to get out but there was none..
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
post 1705600061 08-29-2024, 02:55 AM
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#6960
  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By taf1968⏩
Hindenburg report, I think.
Nazis on trial?
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