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Forum » More General Categories » Education/Career/Finance » *Official* Options trading thread: Why Alpha/Beta when you can Theta?
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Thread: *Official* Options trading thread: Why Alpha/Beta when you can Theta?

post 1674261793 01-06-2023, 02:09 PM
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#1141
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
End of first week of January/beginning of second week may see a pop on SPY and QQQ with target of 20ma on daily (roughly 397.57 and 285.83 gap fills respectively) so I'd like to be out of SQQQ by then and rebuy when target is hit.
so the pop happened. QQQ 20ma is currently 270.84 and I think it could hit Monday. Gap fill still plausible target.

"I think there is a good chance QQQ dips below 260 tomorrow "
low of day was 260.34

Basically fcuked my trade. Closed my SQQQ cc early and sold out of SQQQ position for minor loss. Total net of roughly 3k on the trade.
post 1674440833 01-09-2023, 09:49 AM
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#1142
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
QQQ 20ma is currently 270.84 and I think it could hit Monday. Gap fill still plausible target.
Target hit. Exactly why I wanted to exit SQQQ, otherwise would be down 6%+ on my position. This is the caveat when dealing with 3x leveraged etf and holding overnight or weekend.

$600 scalp on TQQQ this morning. QQQ still has possible 20ma weekly target and gap fill, at roughly 277.94 and 283.01 respectively. Will be looking to reenter SQQQ if that happens.

STO
OXY dec13 64csp x10
AAPL dec13 136cc
GOOG dec13 93cc x4
TSLA dec13 132cc x6

looking to net just over 2k with these contracts
post 1674464963 01-09-2023, 03:44 PM
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#1143
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QQQ put up a sell signal midday so took a swing position on SQQQ and holding overnight.

Looking for QQQ to dip and fill gap at 268.80.

Lotto play would be QQQ Dec10 264P@0.14 but not willing to gamble. Potential 5X play imo.

QQQ 263.33 was battle area last week as that was the bottom of the last gap fill.
post 1674531143 01-10-2023, 02:25 PM
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QQQ did not close the gap. SQQQ came within $0.03 of my sell target of 52.25.

Closed out my position and managed two profitable scalps for roughly 4200 net. Still holding my short contracts for the week.
post 1674600093 01-11-2023, 01:51 PM
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#1145
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added TSLA Dec13 125cc x 18

now looking to net just under 6400 this week on my contracts.
post 1674661643 01-12-2023, 10:04 AM
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#1146
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Tempted to get back into some spy straddles but think I’m gonna just watch on the sidelines
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post 1674762353 01-13-2023, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
added TSLA Dec13 125cc x 18

now looking to net just under 6400 this week on my contracts.
All my short contracts expired worthless.

Total net of 10k+ for this week including my swings and scalps. Lots of money to be made scalping this week if you were watching.
post 1675178783 01-17-2023, 05:05 PM
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#1148
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STO
Oxy Jan20 63csp x10
TSLA Jan20 135cc x 24
AAPL Jan20 139cc
AAPL Jan20 138cc x2
CL Feb17 80cc

Looking to net 4600 for contracts expiring this week
post 1675181383 01-17-2023, 05:31 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Amateur question:

Let's say you hold a stock, and you're long (1 year+).

If you write a covered call and you unfortunately end up in the money, it's great you can get the reduced tax burden from selling something you've held > 1 year, but won't you lose that benefit if you decide to repurchase the same ticker, unless you wait another year?

Is it generally a disadvantage to write covered calls on your longs for this reason?
You can roll your cc to a higher strike or a date further out. You don't have to have your shares assigned.

Imo the main disadvantage to writing calls so far out is reduced premium and trying to predict price so far out. If you are happy to let your shares go at X% as well as collect premium then I'd say it's OK.
post 1675206613 01-17-2023, 09:42 PM
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#1150
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Hmm doesn't this only work if your stock doesn't blow way past your strike price? Since rolling out would be much more expensive then.
There are going to be various factors on how expensive it will be. IV when you roll is a big factor as well as, historical volatility at the time you wrote the contracts, and yes how deep itm the contracts are when you roll them.

In short, you should be prepared to relinquish your shares at the strike price + premium if you are unfamiliar with the nuances of unraveling itm contracts.
post 1675370713 01-19-2023, 02:53 PM
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#1151
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
STO
Oxy Jan20 63csp x10
TSLA Jan20 135cc x 24
AAPL Jan20 139cc
AAPL Jan20 138cc x2
CL Feb17 80cc

Looking to net 4600 for contracts expiring this week
BTC
TSLA Jan20 135cc x24 for roughly 85% gain

STO
TSLA Jan27 125cc x24
post 1675389413 01-19-2023, 08:03 PM
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#1152
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Edit: I'm gonna make this simple, hypothetical scenario:

January - Share price $20, you buy $15 puts for April expiration.
February - Company announces $10 dividend for March but also has some very bad news.
March - Share price rises to $25, and after ex-div it drops to $15. It continues to drop due to the bad news and goes all the way down to $7.50.

Do your puts increase in value when share price drops from $20 to $15 (since that drop is happening after ex-div when share price drops from $25 to $15)?
Your puts will increase whenever price drops, all things being equal. How much it drops depends on option greeks and IV.
post 1675395713 01-19-2023, 10:13 PM
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#1153
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Isn't it true the puts don't increase in value based on share price after ex-div due to the options chain being readjusted? That's the angle I was curious about. Someone in the trading thread tried this and got burned.

I thought there would be a distinction between someone buying those $15 puts before dividend payout is announced and a person buying them right before ex-div.

In the latter, the person buying them before ex-div would see no profit from their puts. In the former, I figured they would. Is that right?
AFAIK that was a special dividend. In your example you are buying 3 months out so the value of the contract is going to be much more dependent on price action, iv and greeks.
post 1675396123 01-19-2023, 10:26 PM
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#1154
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Isn't it true the puts don't increase in value based on share price after ex-div due to the options chain being readjusted? That's the angle I was curious about. Someone in the trading thread tried this and got burned.

I thought there would be a distinction between someone buying those $15 puts before dividend payout is announced and a person buying them right before ex-div.

In the latter, the person buying them before ex-div would see no profit from their puts. In the former, I figured they would. Is that right?
AFAIK that was a special dividend. In your example you are buying 3 months out so the value of the contract is going to be much more dependent on price action, iv and greeks.

Also possible that contracts expiring during div period are reclassified as XYZ and XYZ1. Not 100%.
post 1675438133 01-20-2023, 01:00 PM
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#1155
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Had GOOG Jan20 94cc x4. Rolled to Feb03 94cc x4 for additional 1.95 credit each.
post 1675467323 01-20-2023, 09:51 PM
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#1156
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
STO
Oxy Jan20 63csp x10
TSLA Jan20 135cc x 24
AAPL Jan20 139cc
AAPL Jan20 138cc x2
CL Feb17 80cc

Looking to net 4600 for contracts expiring this week
Recap closed tsla cc early, opened goog cc and rolled out to next week.

Net of just under 5k for the week.
post 1675656203 01-23-2023, 01:15 PM
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#1157
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Opened a CC on bros last Friday at close. Already ITM today.

Reminds me why I stopped doing CCs a long time ago. JFL
It closed at 34 on Friday. It's now 34.61. Not sure what you were expecting. At the very least you should have targets or a basic understanding of option greeks before getting into options.
post 1675899053 01-26-2023, 05:31 PM
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#1158
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It's important to continually set targets so you can plan your trades.

this is what I wrote on Discord:
usersignup — 01/12/2023 1:39 PM
have to stay nimble. So ready to exit tsla when I see it turn. Target 136 before earnings.

Hit 136 on 01/17/23 one week before earnings

usersignup — 01/18/2023 5:48 AM
Target hit premarket. Another big day here and potential 156 by earnings next week.
137.57 is gap fill so needs to get over that to make a run.

Hit 156 on 01/26/23 day after earnings.

STO for this week
TSLA Jan27 160cc x 10
TSLA Jan27 125cc x 24
OXY Jan27 64csp x10
AAPL Jan27 144cc x3

still holding GOOG Feb03 94cc x4

Looking to net just over 26K this week
post 1675973583 01-27-2023, 05:12 PM
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#1159
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
It's important to continually set targets so you can plan your trades.

this is what I wrote on Discord:
usersignup — 01/12/2023 1:39 PM
have to stay nimble. So ready to exit tsla when I see it turn. Target 136 before earnings.

Hit 136 on 01/17/23 one week before earnings

usersignup — 01/18/2023 5:48 AM
Target hit premarket. Another big day here and potential 156 by earnings next week.
137.57 is gap fill so needs to get over that to make a run.

Hit 156 on 01/26/23 day after earnings.

STO for this week
TSLA Jan27 160cc x 10
TSLA Jan27 125cc x 24
OXY Jan27 64csp x10
AAPL Jan27 144cc x3

still holding GOOG Feb03 94cc x4

Looking to net just over 26K this week
Rolled my TSLA Jan27 160cc to March03 160cc
Will let my TSLA 125cc get called away
Rolled AAPL Jan27 144cc to Feb03 144cc

Left over 100k on the table if you can believe it, but made some good change regardless. TSLA run was insane.
post 1676159703 01-30-2023, 08:15 AM
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#1160
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Tsla scalp this morning for 1800.

Will probably hold off on anything until FOMC later this week. Possible will enter SQQQ but looking for QQQ conformation sell off
post 1676395363 02-02-2023, 11:06 AM
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#1161
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Posted on discord on Jan 25.

If 150 holds tomorrow we could get a moonshot.
156 is right at bottom of trendline that it dropped through. Now it has to recover that trendline. 156 and then consolidate then could see 198 as ultimate target.

unfortunately was already committed to deep itm CC...
post 1676558963 02-04-2023, 07:08 PM
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#1162
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
How close to strike do you generally write your contracts? I realized that I missed quite an opportunity to whittle down my cost basis on UPST the past six months.

Going to start writing a large amount of CSP contracts at probably 60% of strike price, on a biweekly basis. If I do this for a year this will more than halve my cost basis.

Edit: I may be mistaken, not quite sure if volatility has spiked to such an extent that these premiums are way higher than they normally are. I'm looking at 4/17 $13.50 CSP for example, showing $.21 per contract.
depends on market conditions. Declining markets I will write calls closer to the money, as I expect price to drop. No sense in writing 20delta calls if the price is going to dip. This assumes I want to hold the shares. In bullish environment I will write calls at 15-20delta depending on how volatile I expect the period to be.

For CSP I generally don't want to own the shares, just collect premium. Those I will write at 5delta. In declining markets with volatile stocks I will avoid writing calls completely unless I want to take a position.
post 1676559433 02-04-2023, 07:18 PM
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#1163
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Opened a large position in AMZN hoping to capitalize on earnings. Unfortunately market pulled back. Still comfortable owning the shares and will hold until I get a sell signal. Sold 125 weekly calls for net just under 2600.

total net for week including swing trades 5500.
post 1676741613 02-07-2023, 02:17 PM
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STO
TSLA feb10 197.50cc x10
AMZN feb10 106cc x20
post 1676763543 02-07-2023, 09:16 PM
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was buying some TQQQ friday calls for around 0.30. then they dipped to 0.07. shoulda added more but didn't. they swung back up into this high 0.20s

now i can see how addicting options can be
post 1676766453 02-07-2023, 10:23 PM
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#1166
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KMX $70P April , carmax earnings gonna be trash and outlook even worse
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post 1676884933 02-09-2023, 08:02 PM
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bought a GOOG $100 C 3/17 for $2.45

hoping that glitch in their new AI was just overblown and can make a quick recovery
post 1676885103 02-09-2023, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted By Bingo559⏩
bought a GOOG $100 C 3/17 for $2.45

hoping that glitch in their new AI was just overblown and can make a quick recovery
see what I posted on discord about GOOG. I have March03 94 covered calls.
post 1676885353 02-09-2023, 08:09 PM
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#1169
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thanks
post 1676887983 02-09-2023, 09:04 PM
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#1170
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
see what I posted on discord about GOOG. I have March03 94 covered calls.
whats the link for misc discord brah?
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