**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

09-13-2022, 10:04 AM

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#91

SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩

Depends. Have you maxed out your 10% gain on I-bonds yet?

Never messed with bonds crew

09-13-2022, 10:04 AM

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#92

OT2000
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩

wrong way to look at it - u must buy stonks on days like today. I don't understand why people wait until the stonk is ath to buy.

Your sarcasm meter needs batteries bro.

Only time I actually buy is really bad days or the day after depending on current market. This could easily roll into more days so I’m watching.

I didn’t actually sell anything because I’m still up on what I do have.

09-13-2022, 10:06 AM

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#93

RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩

Never messed with bonds crew

9.6% gain for 6 months and I'm guessing it will be similar for the next 6 months too. Might not be easy to beat that in the markets for the next year or so... just sayin'

All I am trying to do today is dump my Sofi and Payo CCs that I've got left. I've got bids to BTC leaving around 20-25% premium and my bids are the highest right now. Just gotta hope someone will give me a desperation sell. Unfortunately the PAYO options are thinly traded so might not go through which is fine TBH.

Looking to open CSPs but unsure what I want. Thinking of JPM, but wouldn't go higher strike than $110.

09-13-2022, 10:10 AM

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#94

Carbonfibre
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these is over extended move btw.

way beyond what they were pricing yesterday.

$390 SPY seems like huge stretch today.

already starting to base.

09-13-2022, 10:34 AM

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#95

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decided on a whim to start buying things I think might end up getting bought out.

500 shares of SNAX @0.69 (ayyy lmao)
100 shares of OPAD @$1.45

just buying small chunks to see where these go.

09-13-2022, 10:59 AM

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#96

Carbonfibre
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Rob look at yields, they will explode next week depending on Fed move.

If next week Fed goes aggressive 75BPS now even 100BPS is being tossed around.

growth gonna take another leg to shiit at 100BPS hike.

any moves should be done after market process next week Fed.

This atm is steep as phuck.

Everyone just ignoring what sustained 4%+ fed fund rate will do....

Right now market is pricing sustained 4% till July next year.

Thats a phucking long time that will be real bad for margins on any stock.

09-13-2022, 11:10 AM

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#97

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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩

Rob look at yields, they will explode next week depending on Fed move.

If next week Fed goes aggressive 75BPS now even 100BPS is being tossed around.

growth gonna take another leg to shiit at 100BPS hike.

any moves should be done after market process next week Fed.

This atm is steep as phuck.

Everyone just ignoring what sustained 4%+ fed fund rate will do....

Right now market is pricing sustained 4% till July next year.

Thats a phucking long time that will be real bad for margins on any stock.

Fed absolutely has to keep hiking. Their hikes should crush Euro so I’m playing that angle a little.

I had that big x5 hit with DMS buyout offer so I’m using those funds to try and catch a couple more potential buyouts or just small caps that should rise. I like OPAD because if they get stuck with their home inventory I’m secretly hoping they turn into a REIT of sorts lol.

Snax has a fairly healthy alternative to beef jerky and their market cap is tiny and their CEO is purchasing a large number of shares so I’m thinking turn around or buyout are possible.

Crazy how cyclical markets are. When it’s pumping they convince retail to buy overinflated IPOs for “muh growth” then they dump and retail dumps and when everyone is sick of it private equity pays 1/5 of public offer to take it public at a 40% premium and then repeat the cycle in 4-5 years.

09-13-2022, 11:58 AM

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#98

camaleom
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we will close the day over 400 so MM wreck all those puts LOL

09-13-2022, 12:02 PM

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#99

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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩

we will close the day over 400 so MM wreck all those puts LOL

Max pain

From other thread:

Originally Posted By twovalvekid⏩

What does this have to do with paying your mortage if you dont have an ARM tho....your payment stays the same. Taxes may shift....slowly...but...

It has nothing to do with paying the mortgage. Only has to do with not paying mortgage or for people who want to get either a larger or smaller home that can’t move because they are trapped in their home and only getting $300 or $400 a month closer to getting out from under it lmao

09-13-2022, 01:18 PM

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#100

topperstyle
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My chest

09-13-2022, 01:21 PM

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#101

Carbonfibre
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if there is no buyer response at 3900 on SP

than.....

you better prepare lube.

right now retail is panicking and buying puts left and right (that is why VIX is going up)

higher vix goes the more expensive OTM puts become

dealers will eventually go phuck your puts.

this has to be at 3900 otherwise ....

09-13-2022, 01:27 PM

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#102

SipNPiz
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What a time to be alive traded SARK for STR

09-13-2022, 01:33 PM

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#103

Venom08
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Yikes. SPY is aiming towards $380

09-13-2022, 01:34 PM

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#104

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Want AMD $70 CSP for Oct at $2.50… but fuk this market.

09-13-2022, 01:47 PM

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#105

Carbonfibre
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^^^^^^

market was retarded (positioned wrong) going into CPI this morning.

everyone was heavy long and in calls and they rug pulled.

they set up really nice trap.

no white house warning on bad inflation nothing.

you saw the analyst prediction for today.

all were wrong.

market is now moving faster and bigger due to options and trading at knee jerk shorter time frame.

it went from don't fight fed to lets fight the fed and guess when they will pivot.

so far every time market rips for no reason / fed goes yeah okay more reason to hike higher.

I mean yesterday Apple was ripping based on some bs report that iphone 14 pre sales were hot (like how can you get that accurate info?? apple doesn't release order figures)

09-13-2022, 02:21 PM

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#106

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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩

^^^^^^

market was retarded (positioned wrong) going into CPI this morning.

everyone was heavy long and in calls and they rug pulled.

they set up really nice trap.

no white house warning on bad inflation nothing.

you saw the analyst prediction for today.

all were wrong.

market is now moving faster and bigger due to options and trading at knee jerk shorter time frame.

it went from don't fight fed to lets fight the fed and guess when they will pivot.

so far every time market rips for no reason / fed goes yeah okay more reason to hike higher.

I mean yesterday Apple was ripping based on some bs report that iphone 14 pre sales were hot (like how can you get that accurate info?? apple doesn't release order figures)

Apple orders won't be crazy. They just conned everyone into free Iphone 13s w/ Verizon. Not many buyers left to upgrade.

This was one fuk of a rug pull.

09-13-2022, 02:34 PM

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#107

lntense
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I had spy puts. Nice gain.

Should have shorted meta, or any chip stock.

EVs strong relatively, any idea why?

09-13-2022, 02:48 PM

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#108

Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By lntense⏩

I had spy puts. Nice gain.

proof or negs. (srs not srs)

you seem to only post when you win.

09-13-2022, 02:48 PM

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#109

dontstopbelief
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Lol very predictable drop, been listening to cnbc cucks pumping lower inflation based off absolutely no data for the last 2 weeks, living in fairy land

09-13-2022, 02:59 PM

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#110

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Originally Posted By dontstopbelief⏩

Lol very predictable drop, been listening to cnbc cucks pumping lower inflation based off absolutely no data for the last 2 weeks, living in fairy land

cnbc / fox etc is entertainment show

listening to anything they say ie Cramer you might as well flush money down the toilet.

were you holding puts or shorting too?

09-13-2022, 03:03 PM

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#111

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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩

cnbc / fox etc is entertainment show

listening to anything they say ie Cramer you might as well flush money down the toilet.

were you holding puts or shorting too?

Higher cash weighting is all, I generally stay invested in good companies long term, I don't trade in and out of macro data, mugs game imo.

09-13-2022, 03:45 PM

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#112

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I'm really curious about how these upgrade deals are being (literally) accounted for, it sounds like Apple has basically been doing what the car companies have been doing (particularly Tesla): offering to take previous phones to offset the cost of a new upgrade so you pay only the difference between the new item and what you're trading in.

I have a hard time believing this is being reflected accurately in the accounting world, in that the companies are realizing revenue only for the cost of upgrading and not locking in the total price of the new item as if the buyers aren't only paying a fraction of that. Maybe they're just pushing enough units for it to still crunch out without showing a big dip in revenue, or the items traded in are being monetized elsewhere, but I dunno

09-13-2022, 04:03 PM

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#113

dankydank
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Watched my Apple puts go from +80 to -30 to +60 these past 3 trading days. Bought these near the top in August 2 months out. Sticking with my thesis we bottom in early/mid October before the next rally until the big dump end of year. Gonna hold these SQQQ as well until then or breakeven. Got them at $307 yesterday so decent room until

09-13-2022, 05:11 PM

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#114

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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩

Depends. Have you maxed out your 10% gain on I-bonds yet?

With my write offs this year I may actually get a small tax return, so I’m going to go the I-bond route for that as well for max gainz!

09-13-2022, 05:18 PM

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#115

heiltrump2024
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bought amd @ 77, hoping for small bounce

09-13-2022, 05:28 PM

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#116

Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩

I'm really curious about how these upgrade deals are being (literally) accounted for, it sounds like Apple has basically been doing what the car companies have been doing (particularly Tesla): offering to take previous phones to offset the cost of a new upgrade so you pay only the difference between the new item and what you're trading in.

I have a hard time believing this is being reflected accurately in the accounting world, in that the companies are realizing revenue only for the cost of upgrading and not locking in the total price of the new item as if the buyers aren't only paying a fraction of that. Maybe they're just pushing enough units for it to still crunch out without showing a big dip in revenue, or the items traded in are being monetized elsewhere, but I dunno

Will get back to you eventually.

Remember reading article how complicated accounting can get on stuff like this.

Can't track it down atm.

09-13-2022, 05:38 PM

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#117

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Originally Posted By Destor⏩

I'm really curious about how these upgrade deals are being (literally) accounted for, it sounds like Apple has basically been doing what the car companies have been doing (particularly Tesla): offering to take previous phones to offset the cost of a new upgrade so you pay only the difference between the new item and what you're trading in.

I have a hard time believing this is being reflected accurately in the accounting world, in that the companies are realizing revenue only for the cost of upgrading and not locking in the total price of the new item as if the buyers aren't only paying a fraction of that. Maybe they're just pushing enough units for it to still crunch out without showing a big dip in revenue, or the items traded in are being monetized elsewhere, but I dunno

No they get cash up front. Verizon pays them for phones. They sort of lock everyone into 2-3 year contracts with unlimited everything plans (data included).

09-13-2022, 05:50 PM

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#118

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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩

Watched my Apple puts go from +80 to -30 to +60 these past 3 trading days. Bought these near the top in August 2 months out. Sticking with my thesis we bottom in early/mid October before the next rally until the big dump end of year. Gonna hold these SQQQ as well until then or breakeven. Got them at $307 yesterday so decent room until

Why do we dump again after the rally? To me, markets are forward looking and are now beginning to price in the fact that:

1. Inflation will be sticky - the Fed might limited on what they can do because this is likely more a supply than a demand-side issue

2. Corporate earnings are about to be ****. The cost of servicing debt for cash-flow poor companies is getting higher and higher. As they become even less profitable (in terms of cash, not adjusted earnings), layoffs will happen and that has ripple effects throughout the economy, weakening everything to varying effects

3. Higher rates means "TINA" doesn't work anymore and people can look to short-term bonds/the USD for safety => less inflows into equities

I think the market looks 6-12 months out, and that sounds about right when supply chains, etc. will start normalizing again, but the short-term outlook is certainly a lot bleaker.

Not saying you're wrong or that I'm right, but I just don't see another downside catalyst for the market (barring geopolitical/black swan types of events), unless my estimates for supply chains getting fixed is considerably longer than what I'm thinking they'll be (I think around summer next year, we should see some meaningful progress on this front)

09-13-2022, 06:00 PM

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#119

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is this an accurate representation of an average joe's retirement? pretend they were born in 1960 and started investing at 33 in 1993. buying nothing but SPY.

They invested a total of 72 grand and is now worth 243k with dividends being reinvested.

if they stop buying, they will still make approx $3677 in annual dividends based on 618 shares