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MISC Crypto Crew (MCC) Vol: XIII: Money printer goes brrrrrr, But Bitcoin doesnt
08-23-2020, 08:55 PM
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#151
- Parkerscott
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Originally Posted By BDSMBBW⏩
This is the sunk cost fallacy and you run the risk of losing opportunity cost. Sometimes its better to just rebalance. Its nearly 3 years since the market crashed. Do some fundamental analysis and decide whether or not something still even has a future. A few of those coins might go on a monster rally but even then it might never reach its break even point.Oh what i meant to say was that -
if someone bought a ****coin , and it went down 90%+, thats when one should hodl..If a **** coin goes down 20% or so..maybe it'd be time to cut losses..HODLing or not depends on how much a coin goes down..if you look at WTC, its down like 99%, in this case you have no option but to hodl cuz the value has already been completely wiped, so might as well hodl on to it.
if someone bought a ****coin , and it went down 90%+, thats when one should hodl..If a **** coin goes down 20% or so..maybe it'd be time to cut losses..HODLing or not depends on how much a coin goes down..if you look at WTC, its down like 99%, in this case you have no option but to hodl cuz the value has already been completely wiped, so might as well hodl on to it.
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08-23-2020, 09:05 PM
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#152
- jamalfudge
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The rest of the world is already way ahead in chitcoin tech vs the US. The best we can do is hang on for dear life. I know we've got some non-US brahs in here. They can probably confirm.
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08-23-2020, 09:15 PM
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#153
- Horse86
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those countries have been putting out chit for generations. They’ve had time to practice.
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08-23-2020, 09:21 PM
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#154
Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
sunk cost fallacy would be adding to losers or DCA'ing on chit coins. Which is not what i am saying. My point was that there's no use selling a chitcoin if its down 90%+.This is the sunk cost fallacy and you run the risk of losing opportunity cost. Sometimes its better to just rebalance. Its nearly 3 years since the market crashed. Do some fundamental analysis and decide whether or not something still even has a future. A few of those coins might go on a monster rally but even then it might never reach its break even point.
Fundamental analysis doesn't matter on scam pump n dumps.
08-23-2020, 09:34 PM
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#155
Originally Posted By BDSMBBW⏩
Hodling a position down to 10% reeks of terrible/emotional/inexperienced decision making. I made that mistake when I first got into this space. Learned from it and thankfully already knew then not to put all my eggs in one basket so I was able to dig myself out.Oh what i meant to say was that -
if someone bought a ****coin , and it went down 90%+, thats when one should hodl..If a **** coin goes down 20% or so..maybe it'd be time to cut losses..HODLing or not depends on how much a coin goes down..if you look at WTC, its down like 99%, in this case you have no option but to hodl cuz the value has already been completely wiped, so might as well hodl on to it.
if someone bought a ****coin , and it went down 90%+, thats when one should hodl..If a **** coin goes down 20% or so..maybe it'd be time to cut losses..HODLing or not depends on how much a coin goes down..if you look at WTC, its down like 99%, in this case you have no option but to hodl cuz the value has already been completely wiped, so might as well hodl on to it.
So yes, you're right, if you're in a situation where your position has been decimated by that much, no point in getting out. Although you could argue jumping from an old rekt ****coin to a new ready to get pumped ****coin might salvage some of those losses. Easier said than done obviously. And anyone that's held on to something that's dropped 90% in value probably doesn't have the time or crypto trading wherewithal to pull that off.
But the key in what you said is that, if a ****coin goes down 20%, take the damn L and move on. Or at least have a specific number in mind that will trigger you to sell.
08-23-2020, 09:49 PM
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#156
Originally Posted By Mogambo⏩
The bold part of what you wrote is key..whether or not a trader has knowledge of TA or not, he has to know how much losses he is willing to take on any speculation..I think even some FA legends like buffet have loss limits when it comes to stocks..Hodling a position down to 10% reeks of terrible/emotional/inexperienced decision making. I made that mistake when I first got into this space. Learned from it and thankfully already knew then not to put all my eggs in one basket so I was able to dig myself out.
So yes, you're right, if you're in a situation where your position has been decimated by that much, no point in getting out. Although you could argue jumping from an old rekt ****coin to a new ready to get pumped ****coin might salvage some of those losses. Easier said than done obviously. And anyone that's held on to something that's dropped 90% in value probably doesn't have the time or crypto trading wherewithal to pull that off.
But the key in what you said is that, if a ****coin goes down 20%, take the damn L and move on. Orat least have a specific number in mind that will trigger you to sell.
So yes, you're right, if you're in a situation where your position has been decimated by that much, no point in getting out. Although you could argue jumping from an old rekt ****coin to a new ready to get pumped ****coin might salvage some of those losses. Easier said than done obviously. And anyone that's held on to something that's dropped 90% in value probably doesn't have the time or crypto trading wherewithal to pull that off.
But the key in what you said is that, if a ****coin goes down 20%, take the damn L and move on. Orat least have a specific number in mind that will trigger you to sell.
man even though i love TA some of the insights we can get in intelligent investor book is invaluable.
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor
08-23-2020, 09:53 PM
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#157
- Parkerscott
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Originally Posted By BDSMBBW⏩
No. You are arguing semantics at this point regarding sunk cost.sunk cost fallacy would be adding to losers or DCA'ing on chit coins. Which is not what i am saying. My point was that there's no use selling a chitcoin if its down 90%+.
Fundamental analysis doesn't matter on scam pump n dumps.
Fundamental analysis doesn't matter on scam pump n dumps.
Also fundamental analysis does matter. You are playing a different game. Someone like Buffet would tell you that theres a difference between value investing and following the crowd. You can do whatever you want but I've been here long enough to see rug pull after rug pull of assets already built on top of shaky code.
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08-23-2020, 11:06 PM
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#158
Dude fundamental analysis does not apply to 99% of crypto stuff. Most of us are speculating here...
Buffet invests in company stocks which change the real world , not pump and dumps started by scamsters like justin sun.
Buffet invests in company stocks which change the real world , not pump and dumps started by scamsters like justin sun.
08-23-2020, 11:37 PM
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#159
- Parkerscott
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Originally Posted By BDSMBBW⏩
You keep telling yourself that.Dude fundamental analysis does not apply to 99% of crypto stuff. Most of us are speculating here...
Buffet invests in company stocks which change the real world , not pump and dumps started by scamsters like justin sun.
Buffet invests in company stocks which change the real world , not pump and dumps started by scamsters like justin sun.
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08-23-2020, 11:40 PM
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#160
- phillyfreak7
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Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
Parkerscott giving great advice and idiots fighting on him with itYou keep telling yourself that.
BAT at the highest it's been in over a year. I bought a small amount in 2017, I might add to it soon
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08-24-2020, 12:04 AM
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#161
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Originally Posted By BDSMBBW⏩
Fundamental analysis does nothing, period. Buffet was an abnormality, and even he evens out in the last decades. If you do believe in it though, there is no reason not to apply it to crypto as well. It will maybe help you to weed out the most ridiculous s**t coins but that‘s just about it.Dude fundamental analysis does not apply to 99% of crypto stuff. Most of us are speculating here...
Buffet invests in company stocks which change the real world , not pump and dumps started by scamsters like justin sun.
Buffet invests in company stocks which change the real world , not pump and dumps started by scamsters like justin sun.
How to lose fat for Noobs: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=129247741
08-24-2020, 12:14 AM
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#162
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Originally Posted By wave_length⏩
So what you are saying is we need something like a "coinbase index fund?"Fundamental analysis does nothing, period. Buffet was an abnormality, and even he evens out in the last decades. If you do believe in it though, there is no reason not to apply it to crypto as well. It will maybe help you to weed out the most ridiculous s**t coins but that‘s just about it.
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08-24-2020, 12:16 AM
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#163
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Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
Basically what I did for myself.So what you are saying is we need something like a "coinbase index fund?"
How to lose fat for Noobs: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=129247741
08-24-2020, 01:37 AM
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#164
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All of crypto is a pump and dump
08-24-2020, 02:03 AM
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#165
- Serenadium
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Originally Posted By wave_length⏩
Narrative analysis (a subset of fundamental analysis) is everything in crypto.Fundamental analysis does nothing, period. Buffet was an abnormality, and even he evens out in the last decades. If you do believe in it though, there is no reason not to apply it to crypto as well. It will maybe help you to weed out the most ridiculous s**t coins but that‘s just about it.
Those who invested in the dominant narratives and found relevant projects early at the time have enjoyed untold fortunes.
1. The base layer infrastructure era (ETH, antshares, NEM, EOS, IOTA, Qtum, Lisk, HOLO, XRB). Most of those did 50-1000x+.
2. Interoperability era (ICON, Aion, Wanchain, Fusion, Cosmos, Polkadot). Most of those did 10x+, ICON was probably 300x at one point.
3. Scaling solutions era (Zilliqa, Quarkchain, Raiden, OMG). 6x - 50x gains
4. DeFi era (MKR, Synthetix - 100x+, Aave - 100x+ , YFI - 1000x, Ren - 20x, Kyber - 17x, Bancor - 5x, Loopring - 9x, Chainlink - 8x). Even scams marketing themselves as DeFi have mooned out of control (Ampleforth - 100x, YAM, Statera - 100x)
Most narratives come to an end, the only thing that has really lasted is Bitcoin. Also I'm still strongly inclined to believe fundamental analysis works, people either make decisions on poor info or they don't have the mental inclination needed to assess tech at the bleeding edge.
08-24-2020, 04:52 AM
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#166
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Originally Posted By Serenadium⏩
Crypto hasn‘t been studied long enough but the stock market has. There are two rules that apply for stocks:Narrative analysis (a subset of fundamental analysis) is everything in crypto.
Those who invested in the dominant narratives and found relevant projects early at the time have enjoyed untold fortunes.
1. The base layer infrastructure era (ETH, antshares, NEM, EOS, IOTA, Qtum, Lisk, HOLO, XRB). Most of those did 50-1000x+.
2. Interoperability era (ICON, Aion, Wanchain, Fusion, Cosmos, Polkadot). Most of those did 10x+, ICON was probably 300x at one point.
3. Scaling solutions era (Zilliqa, Quarkchain, Raiden, OMG). 6x - 50x gains
4. DeFi era (MKR, Synthetix - 100x+, Aave - 100x+ , YFI - 1000x, Ren - 20x, Kyber - 17x, Bancor - 5x, Loopring - 9x, Chainlink - 8x). Even scams marketing themselves as DeFi have mooned out of control (Ampleforth - 100x, YAM, Statera - 100x)
Most narratives come to an end, the only thing that has really lasted is Bitcoin. Also I'm still strongly inclined to believe fundamental analysis works, people either make decisions on poor info or they don't have the mental inclination needed to assess tech at the bleeding edge.
Those who invested in the dominant narratives and found relevant projects early at the time have enjoyed untold fortunes.
1. The base layer infrastructure era (ETH, antshares, NEM, EOS, IOTA, Qtum, Lisk, HOLO, XRB). Most of those did 50-1000x+.
2. Interoperability era (ICON, Aion, Wanchain, Fusion, Cosmos, Polkadot). Most of those did 10x+, ICON was probably 300x at one point.
3. Scaling solutions era (Zilliqa, Quarkchain, Raiden, OMG). 6x - 50x gains
4. DeFi era (MKR, Synthetix - 100x+, Aave - 100x+ , YFI - 1000x, Ren - 20x, Kyber - 17x, Bancor - 5x, Loopring - 9x, Chainlink - 8x). Even scams marketing themselves as DeFi have mooned out of control (Ampleforth - 100x, YAM, Statera - 100x)
Most narratives come to an end, the only thing that has really lasted is Bitcoin. Also I'm still strongly inclined to believe fundamental analysis works, people either make decisions on poor info or they don't have the mental inclination needed to assess tech at the bleeding edge.
1. Active investing (market timing and stock picking e.g. through fundamental analysis) on avarage performs worse than passive investing due to higher costs alone (Sharpe‘s law).
2. Future outperformers cannot be identified by their past performance, as proven by countless studies.
Due to lack of regulation, there are a lot of absolute s**t coins in crypto. That‘s where you can have an advantage compared to stocks, simply by avoiding those.
How to lose fat for Noobs: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=129247741
08-24-2020, 05:34 AM
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#167
- isingmodel
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SXP retraced more than I expected (I bought back in a little too early at $3.3) but I think we good now, breaking the resistance on both SXP/BTC and SXP/USDT and FA is very bullish
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BTC to $200k
08-24-2020, 06:15 AM
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#168
- lordpatrick
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Originally Posted By Mogambo⏩
Setting a reminder 2 months.I'm not sure in what context you mean this. Better to hold bags in relation to BTC? Or better to hold alt bags that you are in the red on?
Also, it's not good rationale to make decisions based on one alts performance. And even using the example you gave, advocating to hold a bag that's been in sideways action for damn near 3 years because it spiked recently isn't sound advice. And it's not even close to the ATH that I'm sure many (if not most) of the OMG hodlers right now got in at. Just makes no sense to tie up your funds like that for years without any returns or ability to take advantage of new opportunities. But whatever, hodl away.
Also, it's not good rationale to make decisions based on one alts performance. And even using the example you gave, advocating to hold a bag that's been in sideways action for damn near 3 years because it spiked recently isn't sound advice. And it's not even close to the ATH that I'm sure many (if not most) of the OMG hodlers right now got in at. Just makes no sense to tie up your funds like that for years without any returns or ability to take advantage of new opportunities. But whatever, hodl away.
This is exactly what is going to happen:
All alts will get their satoshi pump. These pumps will be fueled by the "DeFi" bubble, and soon the "DOT" coins bubbles (load up on some if you don't have any, wink wink KULUPU dyor).
Then at some point, BTC is going to get some "China bans Bitcoin" fud. Maybe USA bans Bitcoin. Alts will be near their ATH or a bit lower in satoshi values (including the "bad" portfolio), they will start bleeding hard.
Then, magically, talks of a "BTC ETF" will appear in 2021, and a new parabolic (and in my opinion the final one) run will start.
That narrative is already at play here. If you aren't seeing these uniswap coins with no whitepapers and just a website doing 10000% a day, and you don't realize an irrational bull market has just started, then I don't know what you are doing.
08-24-2020, 06:17 AM
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#169
08-24-2020, 03:17 PM
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#170
- W1LLW
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- W1LLW
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Considering the conflicting reports i'm reading of "crash vs moon after labor day", I thought i'd post this here as a bookmark to reference after. Just to compare market cap and 24hr volume.
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08-24-2020, 04:57 PM
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#171
08-25-2020, 08:58 AM
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#172
08-25-2020, 09:41 AM
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#173
Innovated by private companies, but in the end it will still be controlled by the fed - giving them more control on money than ever before. They definitely won't be using XRP - most likely will start their own fed coin.
08-25-2020, 09:44 AM
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#174
- W1LLW
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Originally Posted By BDSMBBW⏩
Where are your facts to prove "definitively" that they won't be using XRP when the head of US Bank regulation just said they would be looking at a private company, and that most of this tech already exists in silicon valley?Theydefinitelywon't be using XRP - most likely will start their own fed coin.
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08-25-2020, 11:09 AM
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#175
Originally Posted By W1LLW⏩
There's no chance that a private company and its independently developed product would get incorporated into the US financial system in any way. The Fed, and whatever other interested government parties, have been researching this space for sure. They will and probably have been picking apart XRP tech. But that's all in the name of in house RnD.Where are your facts to prove "definitively" that they won't be using XRP when the head of US Bank regulation just said they would be looking at a private company, and that most of this tech already exists in silicon valley?
You don't think Zuckerberg was on his knees pleading to work something out with his Libra project with the blessing of the US government? That **** got shutdown quick. Investors fled when they saw that it would be impossible to get regulatory approval.
08-25-2020, 12:23 PM
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#176
- Parkerscott
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lmfao at this BAT meme. Sound on
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08-26-2020, 06:33 AM
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#177
08-26-2020, 06:39 AM
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#178
- W1LLW
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Originally Posted By Mogambo⏩
Are you saying you don't see the possibility of Ripple being integrated into banking as much as a tech like... say Zelle? I'm sure you've heard of it at some point.There's no chance that a private company and its independently developed product would get incorporated into the US financial system in any way. The Fed, and whatever other interested government parties, have been researching this space for sure. They will and probably have been picking apart XRP tech. But that's all in the name of in house RnD.
You don't think Zuckerberg was on his knees pleading to work something out with his Libra project with the blessing of the US government? That **** got shutdown quick. Investors fled when they saw that it would be impossible to get regulatory approval.
You don't think Zuckerberg was on his knees pleading to work something out with his Libra project with the blessing of the US government? That **** got shutdown quick. Investors fled when they saw that it would be impossible to get regulatory approval.
Originally Posted By SquatNYC⏩
No. It's one of the few with utility but it's wildly boring to follow, not entirely unlike XRP.Lol is BAT considered a chit coin?
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08-26-2020, 07:25 AM
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#179
08-26-2020, 07:27 AM
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#180
Originally Posted By W1LLW⏩
We were talking about the Fed incorporating blockchain.Are you saying you don't see the possibility of Ripple being integrated into banking as much as a tech like... say Zelle? I'm sure you've heard of it at some point.
No. It's one of the few with utility but it's wildly boring to follow, not entirely unlike XRP.
No. It's one of the few with utility but it's wildly boring to follow, not entirely unlike XRP.
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