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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
09-19-2022, 08:00 PM
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#181
- chickenbroccoli
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So much doom and gloom. I don’t see SP500 2900-3000 happening. Can we just chill for awhile and move sideways 3700-4000. Why is a dump needed.
09-19-2022, 08:21 PM
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#182
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By chickenbroccoli⏩
Could keep spiraling downward once we see the impact from continued rate hikes and bad earnings calls.So much doom and gloom. I don’t see SP500 2900-3000 happening. Can we just chill for awhile and move sideways 3700-4000. Why is a dump needed.
Someone I just spoke with said they tried to buy a car and the dealer offered a 7% loan. That used to be common but now that is insane relative to previous borrow rates. At some point there should likely be a credit crunch where no one wants to borrow anymore but no one knows how it will manifest itself or who gets hit first. Tbh I think imma make out like a goddam king shorting WBA.
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09-20-2022, 06:51 AM
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#183
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By chickenbroccoli⏩
Doom and gloom?So much doom and gloom. I don’t see SP500 2900-3000 happening. Can we just chill for awhile and move sideways 3700-4000. Why is a dump needed.
Refer to the table above. fwd earnings projection and p/e multiple.
Wall street analyst think sp next year does $250 apply any multiple to that 17,18,19 and you are well into 4250+...back to ath by end of year if they are right ($250 next year is honestly pure bs someone just smoking crack)
Fedex bombing guidance doesn't help but there can always be outlier. We saw it with meta/netflix earlier this year.
Imagine any of the big companies amazon/google/apple/tesla revising guidance next month.
Market is getting ahead of itself hoping fed pivots. Every rally was built on hopium.
CPI being above expected caused rug pull.
Now they are hoping fed does 75bps and they try rally this back to 4000.
Every time fed hikes rates.
US (dxy) gets stronger.
This in turn hurts earnings.
10 year yield goes up.
Cycle is same.
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Walgreens?Could keep spiraling downward once we see the impact from continued rate hikes and bad earnings calls.
Someone I just spoke with said they tried to buy a car and the dealer offered a 7% loan. That used to be common but now that is insane relative to previous borrow rates. At some point there should likely be a credit crunch where no one wants to borrow anymore but no one knows how it will manifest itself or who gets hit first. Tbh I think imma make out like a goddam king shorting WBA.
Someone I just spoke with said they tried to buy a car and the dealer offered a 7% loan. That used to be common but now that is insane relative to previous borrow rates. At some point there should likely be a credit crunch where no one wants to borrow anymore but no one knows how it will manifest itself or who gets hit first. Tbh I think imma make out like a goddam king shorting WBA.
Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
Lmaooo Room temperature IQ confirmed.Constantly posting “the market might go up or down!” along with your gay littlechart doesn’t help with optionsyou dumb fuk. You never help anyone with anything lmfao. You just sit there and post your dumb little charts the entire day, providing zero actual value.
Then your best comeback is “yeah I’m red, but not as red as you!” As if you have any idea in the first place lmfao
A broken clock is right twice a day. Stop embarrassing yourself, beavercel
Then your best comeback is “yeah I’m red, but not as red as you!” As if you have any idea in the first place lmfao
A broken clock is right twice a day. Stop embarrassing yourself, beavercel
You're really embarrassing yourself.
Go back to main misc and make new fraud threads.
09-20-2022, 07:15 AM
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#184
- heiltrump2024
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- heiltrump2024
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ipof.. sux for whoever held.
09-20-2022, 07:49 AM
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#185
- Carbonfibre
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only guy that was holding it here Heaney got out luckily.
rip ipof warrent holders.
Chamath is snake oil man.
Always was.
https://sec.report/Document/00011046...5d1_ex99-1.htm
rip ipof warrent holders.
Chamath is snake oil man.
Always was.
https://sec.report/Document/00011046...5d1_ex99-1.htm
09-20-2022, 08:29 AM
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#186
- heiltrump2024
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
nice. was he in shares or warrants? i think share holders get their money back @ $10 right?only guy that was holding it here Heaney got out luckily.
rip ipof warrent holders.
Chamath is snake oil man.
Always was.
https://sec.report/Document/00011046...5d1_ex99-1.htm
rip ipof warrent holders.
Chamath is snake oil man.
Always was.
https://sec.report/Document/00011046...5d1_ex99-1.htm
anyways i have no position in this, but i think tomorrow SPY goes up 15pts.. simply because of midterms and fed not wanting to do anything to jeopardize that. although i'm not really sure why the fed is careful not to hurt the democrats. don't want to make this political, but it just doesn't make sense to me. i'd think they would want to be aggressive as possible to bring inflation down so democrats can take credit for it. i guess it's between that or seeing the stock market doing well by the time midterms roll around? maybe pumping/stabilizing is just an easier thing to do.
09-20-2022, 08:38 AM
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#187
- Heaney
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩
Warrants. I sold back in the spring for a fat L.nice. was he in shares or warrants? i think share holders get their money back @ $10 right?
anyways i have no position in this, but i think tomorrow SPY goes up 15pts.. simply because of midterms and fed not wanting to do anything to jeopardize that. although i'm not really sure why the fed is careful not to hurt the democrats. don't want to make this political, but it just doesn't make sense to me. i'd think they would want to be aggressive as possible to bring inflation down so democrats can take credit for it. i guess it's between that or seeing the stock market doing well by the time midterms roll around? maybe pumping/stabilizing is just an easier thing to do.
anyways i have no position in this, but i think tomorrow SPY goes up 15pts.. simply because of midterms and fed not wanting to do anything to jeopardize that. although i'm not really sure why the fed is careful not to hurt the democrats. don't want to make this political, but it just doesn't make sense to me. i'd think they would want to be aggressive as possible to bring inflation down so democrats can take credit for it. i guess it's between that or seeing the stock market doing well by the time midterms roll around? maybe pumping/stabilizing is just an easier thing to do.
09-20-2022, 08:41 AM
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#188
- heiltrump2024
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
well hey you get a nice tax writeoff for many years to comeWarrants. I sold back in the spring for a fat L.
unless it works differently in canada
09-20-2022, 08:44 AM
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#189
- Carbonfibre
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Could been worse Heaney.
Also yeah only one that got butt phucked is warrent holders.
Who ever was holding shares will just get money back at $10.
This is what warrant holders saw today.
To be fair though. Think most knew that October deadline was coming and Scamath could have filed for year extension to keep scam going.
Most would have left warrents.
rope material.
Also yeah only one that got butt phucked is warrent holders.
Who ever was holding shares will just get money back at $10.
This is what warrant holders saw today.
To be fair though. Think most knew that October deadline was coming and Scamath could have filed for year extension to keep scam going.
Most would have left warrents.
rope material.
09-20-2022, 08:49 AM
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#190
- mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
lol why are you coming at ppl ITT? Carbonfibre contributes good content.Constantly posting “the market might go up or down!” along with your gay little chart doesn’t help with options you dumb fuk. You never help anyone with anything lmfao. You just sit there and post your dumb little charts the entire day, providing zero actual value.
Then your best comeback is “yeah I’m red, but not as red as you!” As if you have any idea in the first place lmfao
A broken clock is right twice a day. Stop embarrassing yourself, beavercel
Then your best comeback is “yeah I’m red, but not as red as you!” As if you have any idea in the first place lmfao
A broken clock is right twice a day. Stop embarrassing yourself, beavercel
Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩
inflation is a long term fight. Ppl have short memories. They are not going to fix inflation by midterms. But if the stock market tanks even 2 days before mid terms, that is all ppl will be focused on. America has reached potato level politics, both sides of the aisle.nice. was he in shares or warrants? i think share holders get their money back @ $10 right?
anyways i have no position in this, but i think tomorrow SPY goes up 15pts.. simply because of midterms and fed not wanting to do anything to jeopardize that. although i'm not really sure why the fed is careful not to hurt the democrats. don't want to make this political, but it just doesn't make sense to me.i'd think they would want to be aggressive as possible to bring inflation down so democrats can take credit for it.i guess it's between that or seeing the stock market doing well by the time midterms roll around? maybe pumping/stabilizing is just an easier thing to do.
anyways i have no position in this, but i think tomorrow SPY goes up 15pts.. simply because of midterms and fed not wanting to do anything to jeopardize that. although i'm not really sure why the fed is careful not to hurt the democrats. don't want to make this political, but it just doesn't make sense to me.i'd think they would want to be aggressive as possible to bring inflation down so democrats can take credit for it.i guess it's between that or seeing the stock market doing well by the time midterms roll around? maybe pumping/stabilizing is just an easier thing to do.
Ultimately, Komissar Biden is the fed's employer, so of course they are going to try to make him happy to the extent possible. I don't think that means they do anything and everything to help him out. But if it is just holding off an inevitable crash for a few extra months, why not do that (from their perspective)?
mo e
09-20-2022, 08:54 AM
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#191
- Heaney
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
#GOOGgang now anyways. IPOF is below my line, to quote a man.Could been worse Heaney.
Also yeah only one that got butt phucked is warrent holders.
Who ever was holding shares will just get money back at $10.
This is what warrant holders saw today.
To be fair though. Think most knew that October deadline was coming and Scamath could have filed for year extension to keep scam going.
Most would have left warrents.
rope material.
Also yeah only one that got butt phucked is warrent holders.
Who ever was holding shares will just get money back at $10.
This is what warrant holders saw today.
To be fair though. Think most knew that October deadline was coming and Scamath could have filed for year extension to keep scam going.
Most would have left warrents.
rope material.
09-20-2022, 09:29 AM
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#192
- Lefticle
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- Lefticle
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
If you go to the last page, you’ll see he came after me completely unprovoked and I put that jackass in his place.lol why are you coming at ppl ITT? Carbonfibre contributes good content.
Always Neg Back Crew.
09-20-2022, 10:44 AM
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#193
- Destor
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We've never seen a market bottom while the Fed is in the process of raising rates. People shorting Apple moreso makes me think we're closer, but we're still probably not done until people sell their Apple and walk away in disdain
The SPAC explosion was emblematic of the money printers running at full bore, Chamath was just one of the many people lined up to get their piece through methods employing varying degrees of unscrupulousness
The SPAC explosion was emblematic of the money printers running at full bore, Chamath was just one of the many people lined up to get their piece through methods employing varying degrees of unscrupulousness
09-20-2022, 10:52 AM
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#194
- dopamine72
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Been day trading/swing trading FUBO, SNAP and now thinking about buying some F on this dip....Anyone?????
What are ya'lls quick trade ideas for today?
What are ya'lls quick trade ideas for today?
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
09-20-2022, 11:09 AM
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#195
- chickenbroccoli
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
SPY trading 384.20 right now buy 100 shares. Sell covered call at 380 exp 9/21.Been day trading/swing trading FUBO, SNAP and now thinking about buying some F on this dip....Anyone?????
What are ya'lls quick trade ideas for today?
What are ya'lls quick trade ideas for today?
Collect $620 of premium and expect assignment with $420 loss. Profit $200. 620 - 420 = 200
09-20-2022, 11:16 AM
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#196
- GreatReset1
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This market right now is a reflection of Biden's America. It will continue to go down and people will start losing everything. Carbonfibre supports this and will go down with the ship.
09-20-2022, 11:29 AM
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#197
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Market is forward looking.We've never seen a market bottom while the Fed is in the process of raising rates. People shorting Apple moreso makes me think we're closer, but we're still probably not done until people sell their Apple and walk away in disdain
The SPAC explosion was emblematic of the money printers running at full bore, Chamath was just one of the many people lined up to get their piece through methods employing varying degrees of unscrupulousness
The SPAC explosion was emblematic of the money printers running at full bore, Chamath was just one of the many people lined up to get their piece through methods employing varying degrees of unscrupulousness
They are trying to predict when Fed will have to pivot. (Its as simple as that)
At some point fed will reach ceiling where shiit will blow up with raising fed fund rate to 3.5-4%....now there is even talk of 4.5% and keeping it there till next year summer before doing 25bps cuts.
Most if not all things are usually priced in. Hedge funds employ the brightest minds/quants in the business, they have model for every single scenario.
I mean one simply has to look at the 10 year yield curve and its going to moon.
US dollar is becoming safe heaven to other currencies and countries that are getting crushed.
09-20-2022, 11:33 AM
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#198
- Carbonfibre
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fyi.
market is dumping.
Because Putin is doing rare address to country atm.
Saying they are doubling down on Ukraine war.
So more escalation.
market is dumping.
Because Putin is doing rare address to country atm.
Saying they are doubling down on Ukraine war.
So more escalation.
09-20-2022, 11:33 AM
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#199
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Up massive on SQQQ shares but this ******* company Apple keeps pumping while the rest of the market is blood red. If I picked any other company in August for puts I’d be up like 300+% instead of 100
09-20-2022, 11:39 AM
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#200
- heiltrump2024
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
is quant generally a young mans career?Market is forward looking.
They are trying to predict when Fed will have to pivot. (Its as simple as that)
At some point fed will reach ceiling where shiit will blow up with raising fed fund rate to 3.5-4%....now there is even talk of 4.5% and keeping it there till next year summer before doing 25bps cuts.
Most if not all things are usually priced in. Hedge funds employ the brightest minds/quants in the business, they have model for every single scenario.
I mean one simply has to look at the 10 year yield curve and its going to moon.
US dollar is becoming safe heaven to other currencies and countries that are getting crushed.
They are trying to predict when Fed will have to pivot. (Its as simple as that)
At some point fed will reach ceiling where shiit will blow up with raising fed fund rate to 3.5-4%....now there is even talk of 4.5% and keeping it there till next year summer before doing 25bps cuts.
Most if not all things are usually priced in. Hedge funds employ the brightest minds/quants in the business, they have model for every single scenario.
I mean one simply has to look at the 10 year yield curve and its going to moon.
US dollar is becoming safe heaven to other currencies and countries that are getting crushed.
it sounds interesting but i believe there are only two schools which teach a masters in financial engineering, and atleast one of them is ivy league
09-20-2022, 11:50 AM
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#201
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩
Young mans game now probably cause its heavy algo trading that needs someone that can pick up on tech quick.is quant generally a young mans career?
it sounds interesting but i believe there are only two schools which teach a masters in financial engineering, and atleast one of them is ivy league
it sounds interesting but i believe there are only two schools which teach a masters in financial engineering, and atleast one of them is ivy league
Quant is just term thrown around for someone that is really good at recognizing patterns / arbitrage / pricing etc.
If you're good at math/statistics and know computer programming you could apply to work at wallstreet firms.
The big boy funds are always chasing phd's brightest they can find and they pay big.
You could have degree in stats / math / engineering / cs etc to apply.
Hell hedge funds that trade commodities hire meteorologists so they can get price out something like crop yields based on forward weather models.
I have cs degree and work in gaming industry way more relax (less pay) environment hence the miscing daily lmao.
09-20-2022, 01:14 PM
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#202
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
No way I’d buy ford. I think they are a better short tbh.Been day trading/swing trading FUBO, SNAP and now thinking about buying some F on this dip....Anyone?????
What are ya'lls quick trade ideas for today?
What are ya'lls quick trade ideas for today?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-20-2022, 01:24 PM
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#203
- Lefticle
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Originally Posted By GreatReset1⏩
This market right now is a reflection of Biden's America. It will continue to go down and people will start losing everything. Carbonfibre supports this and will go down with the ship.
Always Neg Back Crew.
09-20-2022, 01:41 PM
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#204
- Carbonfibre
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Tmmrw cruise missile will be dropped at 2PM EST and 30 minute after Jpow press conference.
Everyone got their panties wet that Fed will do 100BPS surprise hike.
Puts are being bought like wild fire.
If this doesn't happen 100 bps hike. Those puts will go to garbage real fast.
There could be monster one day rally in the cards right after fomc. Market is hedging hard today. (hence vix at 27 atm)
flip side 100bps would sink this market below 3800 (if there was surprise hike)
Everyone got their panties wet that Fed will do 100BPS surprise hike.
Puts are being bought like wild fire.
If this doesn't happen 100 bps hike. Those puts will go to garbage real fast.
There could be monster one day rally in the cards right after fomc. Market is hedging hard today. (hence vix at 27 atm)
flip side 100bps would sink this market below 3800 (if there was surprise hike)
09-20-2022, 01:49 PM
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#205
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I bought 10 short term puts of WBA $30p for Oct for $33 each. Might buy more of these or perhaps go longer dated. I’ll watch earnings for RAD and I think they will both move similarly. Their stores are highly unprofitable and the costs to staff their stores are outrageous right now even though they offer the lowest wages in the industry thanks to high bonuses they offer and OT worked. I haven’t looked into other pieces of their business to see what their revs will be, but I think their small box stores are a big piece of their pie. They got hit with billions in losses from lawsuits. They still have plenty more lawsuits pending in regards to opioid dispensing. They are buying a specialty group outright with a multiple based on their initial buy from 2021 so I doubt that was priced particularly well and it costs over a billion in an environment where cash flow and cash on hand are important. I won’t be shocked if they revise or remove guidance before earnings hence I didn’t wait longer to buy puts.Tmmrw cruise missile will be dropped at 2PM EST and 30 minute after Jpow press conference.
Everyone got their panties wet that Fed will do 100BPS surprise hike.
Puts are being bought like wild fire.
If this doesn't happen 100 bps hike. Those puts will go to garbage real fast.
There could be monster one day rally in the cards right after fomc. Market is hedging hard today. (hence vix at 27 atm)
flip side 100bps would sink this market below 3800 (if there was surprise hike)
Everyone got their panties wet that Fed will do 100BPS surprise hike.
Puts are being bought like wild fire.
If this doesn't happen 100 bps hike. Those puts will go to garbage real fast.
There could be monster one day rally in the cards right after fomc. Market is hedging hard today. (hence vix at 27 atm)
flip side 100bps would sink this market below 3800 (if there was surprise hike)
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-20-2022, 01:52 PM
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#206
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Interesting.I bought 10 short term puts of WBA $30p for Oct for $33 each. Might buy more of these or perhaps go longer dated. I’ll watch earnings for RAD and I think they will both move similarly. Their stores are highly unprofitable and the costs to staff their stores are outrageous right now even though they offer the lowest wages in the industry thanks to high bonuses they offer and OT worked. I haven’t looked into other pieces of their business to see what their revs will be, but I think their small box stores are a big piece of their pie. They got hit with billions in losses from lawsuits. They still have plenty more lawsuits pending in regards to opioid dispensing. They are buying a specialty group outright with a multiple based on their initial buy from 2021 so I doubt that was priced particularly well and it costs over a billion in an environment where cash flow and cash on hand are important. I won’t be shocked if they revise or remove guidance before earnings hence I didn’t wait longer to buy puts.
How liquid are wba options.
Spread decent?
09-20-2022, 02:09 PM
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#207
- dopamine72
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Thx for the input brah, I'll stay away for now. Don't think I'll do much till fed talks tomorrowNo way I’d buy ford. I think they are a better short tbh.
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
09-20-2022, 02:40 PM
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#208
- chickenbroccoli
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Imagining 100 bps tomorrow…
09-20-2022, 02:48 PM
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#209
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
I’ll go deeper tomorrow, but imo I think their debt load is going to become incredibly problematic. Especially their pension liabilities. These rate hikes will blow these problems up dramatically.Thx for the input brah, I'll stay away for now. Don't think I'll do much till fed talks tomorrow
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-20-2022, 04:20 PM
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#210
- Destor
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Even after the Fed changes gears, and with the market trying to price all this in, the lag between interest rate changes and impact on the real economy means we'll have months of negative data to contend with and unknowns around those dataMarket is forward looking.
They are trying to predict when Fed will have to pivot. (Its as simple as that)
At some point fed will reach ceiling where shiit will blow up with raising fed fund rate to 3.5-4%....now there is even talk of 4.5% and keeping it there till next year summer before doing 25bps cuts.
Most if not all things are usually priced in. Hedge funds employ the brightest minds/quants in the business, they have model for every single scenario.
I mean one simply has to look at the 10 year yield curve and its going to moon.
US dollar is becoming safe heaven to other currencies and countries that are getting crushed.
They are trying to predict when Fed will have to pivot. (Its as simple as that)
At some point fed will reach ceiling where shiit will blow up with raising fed fund rate to 3.5-4%....now there is even talk of 4.5% and keeping it there till next year summer before doing 25bps cuts.
Most if not all things are usually priced in. Hedge funds employ the brightest minds/quants in the business, they have model for every single scenario.
I mean one simply has to look at the 10 year yield curve and its going to moon.
US dollar is becoming safe heaven to other currencies and countries that are getting crushed.
We've never had a bottom in the market while the Fed is in the process of raising rates, the bottom hits after they start lowering rates
This actually makes sense conceptually with the way the Fed uses rates to modulate the economy: raising rates suggests the economy needs to be throttled, lowering rates suggests the economy needs help. Many of the bears right now think the Fed will hike until something breaks, and then they'll pause and assess
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