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Forum » More General Categories » Education/Career/Finance » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1668197103 09-20-2022, 04:50 PM
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#211
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I think we get 75 and rally. Depending on their goals etc.



Just don't see them doing 100.



Playing both sides. Puts for next week, Calls are a little further out. Mostly in cash in case we get some direction from this and they're firm on their goals.




Put buyers could possibly get wrecked soon.
post 1668197213 09-20-2022, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted By lntense⏩
I think we get 75 and rally. Depending on their goals etc.



Just don't see them doing 100.
yup. fed hasn't been doing unexpected things this year that shock the market, unless i missed it
post 1668197373 09-20-2022, 04:55 PM
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Originally Posted By lntense⏩
I think we get 75 and rally. Depending on their goals etc.



Just don't see them doing 100.
I don’t see 100 and 75 is max most likely. Seems nutty how high we’ve gone and so fast. Just doesn’t seem like anything is seriously pricing in the cost of borrowing.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1668203273 09-20-2022, 06:52 PM
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Tomorrow I am most excited for the fed meeting, compared to every prior meeting, I’m thinking he big dicks it 100
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1668203803 09-20-2022, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Tomorrow I am most excited for the fed meeting, compared to every prior meeting, I’m thinking he big dicks it 100
They were hawkish at Jackson Hole then we got a hot CPI report.

100 bps might happen. Hope I’m wrong.
post 1668206523 09-20-2022, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted By chickenbroccoli⏩
They were hawkish at Jackson Hole then we got a hot CPI report.

100 bps might happen. Hope I’m wrong.
JPow's still trying to aim for a "soft landing" . . . probably not possible in reality, but he wants to keep up the illusion. Everyone is expecting 75 points. I don't see him dropping 100 points and setting off that chitstorm. Market would dive hard. I think it's more likely they go 75 this time around and then maybe another 50-75 in Oct and then see where things stand. Probably will keep creeping up for awhile.
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post 1668207123 09-20-2022, 08:27 PM
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I've adopted a contrarian approach over the last week.




I do the opposite of what I think is going to happen.
post 1668207193 09-20-2022, 08:28 PM
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Fed isn't that stupid.

They have more information than anyone.

You could say they are holding cards close and refuse to give any guidance but everything points to steady 50bps or 75bps every fomc till they reach 3.5-4%.



If Jerome comes out tmmrw and says its over we are doing 100 bps than 75 bps etc.

Market crashes.


Fed is now going into blackout after tmmrw to not be part of midterm election talk.
post 1668209933 09-20-2022, 09:39 PM
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100 bps please.
Management Information Systems Crew
Canadian Crew
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post 1668209953 09-20-2022, 09:39 PM
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MASSIVE explosion @ BP oil refinery in Ohio, anyone think this will push oil stonks higher tomARRROOWWWW??????

Link:https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showt...hp?t=181736783
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I’ll go deeper tomorrow, but imo I think their debt load is going to become incredibly problematic. Especially their pension liabilities. These rate hikes will blow these problems up dramatically.
I will be here anxiously awaiting your post sweety <3
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1668210693 09-20-2022, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Interesting.

How liquid are wba options.

Spread decent?
Spread was 1-2 cents when I bought.

Hoping for a target style meltdown. Unsure if their PBM can make up for retail store failures. They've been trying to push into telemed/primary care but I don't know how that is going either.
Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Thx for the input brah, I'll stay away for now. Don't think I'll do much till fed talks tomorrow
I didn't forget bb

Ford looks great on paper for 2022, but holy fuk it feels like they are genuinely fukking doomed. They sell trucks first and foremost. They are expensive and they usually carry the best profit margins by far hence they ditched a majority of cars. They are already stretching consumers thin selling trucks with 1-3% interest over 7 years... how tf are they going to manage to get people to buy a new truck at 5-8% interest over 7 years??? The numbers will start to get crazy enough you can't hide how massive their payments are and I don't think they can push loan length out much further... Sales are going to come crumbling down once more and more people/businesses start seeing these costs. Most people in need of these big ticket items have already made their moves as well when interest rates were low so it might take time for everyone to come to the realization(due to low demand) how insane the vehicle market is currently. Looked at their balance sheet and $210B is their debt load. Interest rates go to 4% for them that means it would cost 8B to service that debt... Obviously most of that debt is short term so they would never pay near that interest rate on accounts payable ect ect, but their interest on debt obligations could easily start chunking their profits by $1-2B a year. Sign me up for $5P leaps!
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1668233033 09-21-2022, 10:57 AM
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upst and affirm in a race to the bottom after today rate hikes...
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1668235183 09-21-2022, 11:33 AM
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smells like rugpull
post 1668236743 09-21-2022, 12:04 PM
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“Priced in”. Bulltards think every bad news is good news. Still can reverse on Powell talk or dump even more when he keeps saying Volcker
post 1668237503 09-21-2022, 12:18 PM
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#225
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Jerome will need to be very firm at press conference to carry this sell down even further.

Usually he somehow finds hopium with words and we get rally post fomc.


Meanwhile.....under the hood.


Fed is telling you

shiit didn't even hit fan yet.


imagine fed fund rate at 4.5% next year

good luck with that mortgage



post 1668237543 09-21-2022, 12:18 PM
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GD....so many things look tasty right now, but I cant pull myself to do it yet.
post 1668237723 09-21-2022, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
good luck with that mortgage
i've been waiting to see how the RE market moves with all this news. on one hand the rise in interest rates has curbed demand, but on the other hand, even if prices come down the interest rate is a bit ridiculous. it's a lose/lose situation unless making significant down payment or paying cash. best time to buy was right before the pandemic when prices were normal and interest rates were <3%

apparently many decades ago interest rates were in the teens so we haven't seeanythingyet..
post 1668238273 09-21-2022, 12:35 PM
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#228
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩
i've been waiting to see how the RE market moves with all this news. on one hand the rise in interest rates has curbed demand, but on the other hand, even if prices come down the interest rate is a bit ridiculous. it's a lose/lose situation unless making significant down payment or paying cash. best time to buy was right before the pandemic when prices were normal and interest rates were <3%

apparently many decades ago interest rates were in the teens so we haven't seeanythingyet..
Yup boomer at work just shared his first mortgage was 14% variable rate in the 1980s, at the time fixed was 17%
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1668238873 09-21-2022, 12:45 PM
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#229
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Spread was 1-2 cents when I bought.
I didn't forget bb

Ford looks great on paper for 2022, but holy fuk it feels like they are genuinely fukking doomed. They sell trucks first and foremost. They are expensive and they usually carry the best profit margins by far hence they ditched a majority of cars. They are already stretching consumers thin selling trucks with 1-3% interest over 7 years... how tf are they going to manage to get people to buy a new truck at 5-8% interest over 7 years??? The numbers will start to get crazy enough you can't hide how massive their payments are and I don't think they can push loan length out much further... Sales are going to come crumbling down once more and more people/businesses start seeing these costs. Most people in need of these big ticket items have already made their moves as well when interest rates were low so it might take time for everyone to come to the realization(due to low demand) how insane the vehicle market is currently. Looked at their balance sheet and $210B is their debt load. Interest rates go to 4% for them that means it would cost 8B to service that debt... Obviously most of that debt is short term so they would never pay near that interest rate on accounts payable ect ect, but their interest on debt obligations could easily start chunking their profits by $1-2B a year. Sign me up for $5P leaps!
lol thx brah

Damn I'm glad I asked...Good points
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1668240733 09-21-2022, 01:21 PM
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#230
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What a dumbass day, every chart looks the same
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1668241173 09-21-2022, 01:29 PM
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#231
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
What a dumbass day, every chart looks the same
Nobody is laying off staff... but there is one hellofa lot of reorganization going on in most companies right now that sure has the appearance of trying to slim down and run their company more efficiently with perhaps a few less people than usual. But no layoffs

If you are wondering what it looks like just ask all the desk jockeys at Ford, Meta, netflix, peloton, and Google! White collar jobs are getting axed with a lot of intensity and honestly it is about time. Worker bees can't really be removed and most companies have a skeleton crew of minimum wage employees as is. Lots of unionizing efforts right now too (looking at you home depot, starbucks, amazon, and tesla). Hopefully my desk job doesn't follow suit lmao
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668241293 09-21-2022, 01:30 PM
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If you played the 0 DTE otm calls and outs today then congrats. This kind of movement would turn 10k into 1 mil
post 1668241613 09-21-2022, 01:38 PM
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#233
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
If you played the 0 DTE otm calls and outs today then congrats. This kind of movement would turn 10k into 1 mil
You think so? 2% swing from today's low to today's high?
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1668241683 09-21-2022, 01:38 PM
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#234
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^^^^^ (not rob but danky above)

nope.

market makers / dealers are not stupid

they price these events in just like they do when some company has earnings to report.

even far out OTM puts or calls were expensive today to play.


today you had massive vol crush.
post 1668242223 09-21-2022, 01:51 PM
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Not only are companies not really laying off, only recently have we started to see substantial wage hikes rolling out in larger industries on the backs of inflation and that will help price increases entrench themselves


The recent rail strikes are a good example, looks like it's set to happen in the UK now as well. We fought for more money for our crews on this project just the other month, and we got it. The provincial energy authority is already warning residents to prepare for higher prices going forward.

I expect to see big hikes in construction and other large sectors that employ huge amounts of people, are experiencing labour shortages, and that require a physical presence
post 1668242483 09-21-2022, 01:55 PM
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0 DTEs with 1-2 hours til expiration were going for less than 10 cents and hit $1-2 both ways today. Had 3 major 2+ swings within about 20 mins of each other
post 1668242743 09-21-2022, 01:59 PM
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SNAP is about to reach my entry point...It has a negative PE ratio too
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Nobody is laying off staff... but there is one hellofa lot of reorganization going on in most companies right now that sure has the appearance of trying to slim down and run their company more efficiently with perhaps a few less people than usual. But no layoffs

If you are wondering what it looks like just ask all the desk jockeys at Ford, Meta, netflix, peloton, and Google! White collar jobs are getting axed with a lot of intensity and honestly it is about time. Worker bees can't really be removed and most companies have a skeleton crew of minimum wage employees as is. Lots of unionizing efforts right now too (looking at you home depot, starbucks, amazon, and tesla). Hopefully my desk job doesn't follow suit lmao
Good info as usual
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1668242843 09-21-2022, 02:00 PM
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Welp...There goes everything.....


Jesus christ
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1668242953 09-21-2022, 02:02 PM
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#239
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that was one fuk of a close dayum
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668243043 09-21-2022, 02:03 PM
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#240
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
0 DTEs with 1-2 hours til expiration were going for less than 10 cents and hit $1-2 both ways today. Had 3 major 2+ swings within about 20 mins of each other
what strikes?

so I can show you that most would have not diamond handed them in 4 major swings that just happened.


its easy to say it when not holding said puts with real money but imagine buying $10K worth of calls or puts and having 1 hour till expiry.
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