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Forum » Will housing market eventually crash?
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Thread: Will housing market eventually crash?

post 1635878813 04-10-2021, 10:52 AM
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Will housing market eventually crash?

Been wanting a new house for a while now. There are some nice brand new houses in the $500-600k that I have been considering. Am I shooting my self in the foot buying now? Or would selling my house now and buying be the same as doing it later down the road because inflated prices?
post 1635879063 04-10-2021, 10:56 AM
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i see so many miscers saying yes its a bubble and so many miscers saying no you ******* its the way things are now!
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post 1635879233 04-10-2021, 10:59 AM
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yes one day the Sun will turn into a Red Giant and destroy all life on earth so either then or before the housing market will likely eventually crash



however if we have managed to settle on other planets/moons further out then the house prices on Titan or wherever are gonna be a BTCH
post 1635879373 04-10-2021, 11:02 AM
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only if theres a ww3
post 1635879393 04-10-2021, 11:02 AM
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this house may cost £50k in a few years

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDvsM1Oivus
post 1635879403 04-10-2021, 11:02 AM
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Where you located?

My mom has a rental property with a bum tenant who's paying 25-45% of the rent along with a covid related note with with each payment. That house is in the process of going up for sale as a result, and we're suggesting the gains be moved out of real estate and divided into various equities and investments. If this were to become a trend, it would definitely put downward pressure on the housing market
Your schtick sucks and it screams insecurity.
post 1635879443 04-10-2021, 11:04 AM
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Maybe in some areas, but the trend is always up. I think my grandparents paid less than 10k for their house.

Worrying about crashes is something a flipper should worry about.

Houses are long term holds.
post 1635879503 04-10-2021, 11:05 AM
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imagine thinking misc has the answer to this
post 1635879533 04-10-2021, 11:05 AM
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in the major metro areas (top 10-20 largest cities in the US), highly unlikely IMO. If there's a broader market crash that affects real estate, maybe a slight pullback (think 10-15%), but not anything super crazy

fact is there is simply more demand than there is supply in most these places. It's simple economics
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post 1635879583 04-10-2021, 11:07 AM
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Crash? No. Massive correction? Absolutely
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post 1635879693 04-10-2021, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted By digital022⏩
Where you located?

My mom has a rental property with a bum tenant who's paying 25-45% of the rent along with a covid related note with with each payment. That house is in the process of going up for sale as a result, and we're suggesting the gains be moved out of real estate and divided into various equities and investments. If this were to become a trend, it would definitely put downward pressure on the housing market
the bubble is bigger in the stock market right now, but it's the same cause, oversupply of disposable income with nothing to spend it on due to the pandemic

The stock market will see a faster correction when the world comes to it's senses, and housing prices will go sideways and maybe a little down for a long time as interest rates rise.
post 1635880053 04-10-2021, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted By adamsz⏩
in the major metro areas (top 10-20 largest cities in the US), highly unlikely IMO.If there's a broader market crash that affects real estate, maybe a slight pullback (think 10-15%), but not anything super crazy

fact is there is simply more demand than there is supply in most these places. It's simple economics
Most likely IMO.

Read about it a couple of years back, but single family housing is no longer a normal consumer good. Properties are being purchased by investment groups as an investment, either to flip, or rent out.

So there is a lot of cash out there which most people can't compete against if they don't have equity from a previous property.

If it does go smash regular people will get shafted, while these big investment groups get a government bailout. At least that is what our history supports.

Worth the watch:

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post 1635880613 04-10-2021, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted By digital022⏩
Where you located?

My mom has a rental property with a bum tenant who's paying 25-45% of the rent along with a covid related note with with each payment. That house is in the process of going up for sale as a result, and we're suggesting the gains be moved out of real estate and divided into various equities and investments. If this were to become a trend, it would definitely put downward pressure on the housing market
Im located in bakersfield. Houses here were cheap, but ever since covid happened prices sky rocketed.
post 1635880873 04-10-2021, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted By lnvictus⏩
Don't think there is such a thing as house market crash. People need places, and there's alway people with money to buy them.
sometimes there are corrections and if it comes from rate hikes then people who live pay check to pay check lose, but people always swoop in and it goes up in the end
post 1635880883 04-10-2021, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted By lnvictus⏩
Don't think there is such a thing as house market crash. People need places, and there's alway people with money to buy them.
but who was 2008
post 1635880953 04-10-2021, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted By nothingshocking⏩
but who was 2008
see post above yours
post 1635881033 04-10-2021, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Most likely IMO.

Read about it a couple of years back, but single family housing is no longer a normal consumer good. Properties are being purchased by investment groups as an investment, either to flip, or rent out.

So there is a lot of cash out there which most people can't compete against if they don't have equity from a previous property.

If it does go smash regular people will get shafted, while these big investment groups get a government bailout. At least that is what our history supports.

Worth the watch:

That sucks for first time buyers. I had a buddy telling me the same thing saying this is all a prt of “the great reset” lol.
post 1635881193 04-10-2021, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted By AlwaysFocus⏩
see post above yours
There was a literal crash, houses that sold for $900K a year before went for 650K the next year. I bought and sold a house at this time, it was great for me because I was upsizing. Houses are returning to those values now 14 years later in a new bubble.
post 1635881273 04-10-2021, 11:38 AM
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No one here can say for sure, only a select few who manipulate the markets know what and when will happen
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post 1635881603 04-10-2021, 11:45 AM
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It's the same subprime lending conditions as it was in 2008, in 2018, they were very very quietly and lobbied under trump to be de-regulated. You can buy a house with 3 percent deposit, which is diaster for the market long term I feel.

It will drop 30-50% like every other property bubble has before that i've witnessed.

Whole US Economy is one big bubble. The job market has dropped badly this year they are just manipulating the numbers with Biden. Things are bad and everyone knows it.
post 1635881723 04-10-2021, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
It's the same subprime lending conditions as it was in 2008, in 2018, they were very very quietly and lobbied under trump to be de-regulated. You can buy a house with 3 percent deposit, which is diaster for the market long term I feel.

It will drop 30-50% like every other property bubble has before that i've witnessed.

Whole US Economy is one big bubble. The job market has dropped badly this year they are just manipulating the numbers with Biden. Things are bad and everyone knows it.
^^^^
post 1635881733 04-10-2021, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted By chino3⏩
Crash? No. Massive correction? Absolutely
This. But even with a correction, home prices wont show much change in prices. You will see less offers and being less and less over asking price. Eventually, appreciation and inflation will level out the prices but not necessarily drop the houses prices by too much.

But also, another factor in high prices is lumber/materials cost being at record highs.

There is a supply shortage, so new builds are facing high demand + record high prices to build which is causing huge markups. I dont think lumber prices are a main factor in high overall costs but certainly a factor.

Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
It's the same subprime lending conditions as it was in 2008, in 2018, they were very very quietly and lobbied under trump to be de-regulated. You can buy a house with 3 percent deposit, which is diaster for the market long term I feel.

It will drop 30-50% like every other property bubble has before that i've witnessed.

Whole US Economy is one big bubble. The job market has dropped badly this year they are just manipulating the numbers with Biden. Things are bad and everyone knows it.
Being able to buy a house with low down payment has no correlation to the 08 crash. The 08 crash was wide scale fraud.
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post 1635881753 04-10-2021, 11:47 AM
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Ya it will crash. Up.
post 1635881893 04-10-2021, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted By scythiss1⏩
Im located in bakersfield. Houses here were cheap, but ever since covid happened prices sky rocketed.
Imagine paying $400k to live in Bakersfield. lol
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post 1635882293 04-10-2021, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted By LinuxJon⏩
Imagine paying $400k to live in Bakersfield. lol
Don’t wanna leave my family bro, my parents are old
post 1635882743 04-10-2021, 12:08 PM
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All markets willeventuallycrash. Time in the market > Timing the market. Investment is a long game.
post 1635882773 04-10-2021, 12:08 PM
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I don't think it will "crash" if you're thinking something like 2008. That was triggered by all the sub prime lending BS with poor lending practices. This run up of late is largely caused by lack of available inventory. You have more buyers than sellers. That isn't about to change. Also, materials cost have sky rocketed which is adding to that. If it costs significantly more to build a replacement house, then houses already built also benefit from that.

These are just two of the current contributors, but this is much different than a normal "bubble", particularly like we saw the last time around...
post 1635883103 04-10-2021, 12:15 PM
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I lol that most of the articles on internet addressing OP's question are written by real estate agents. As if real estate agents would ever say "yes a crash is imminent save your money and don't pay me oversized commissions." Also, lol at the idea that real estate agents have an idea re the market - they literally just search for listed homes and make appointments for ppl, glorified personal assistants.
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post 1635884083 04-10-2021, 12:32 PM
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No because home ownership has become consolidated. The number of people who own the home they live in has plummeted while the number of people who own 10+, 20+, 50+ homes has skyrocketed.

With the instability of the u.s. economy (impending collapse and downfall from world superpower to moderate place on the world economic spectrum) anyone with a high income is recognizing they need to tie up their money in physical investments like real estate.
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post 1635898813 04-10-2021, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted By Fozzy13⏩
This. But even with a correction, home prices wont show much change in prices. You will see less offers and being less and less over asking price. Eventually, appreciation and inflation will level out the prices but not necessarily drop the houses prices by too much.

But also, another factor in high prices is lumber/materials cost being at record highs.

There is a supply shortage, so new builds are facing high demand + record high prices to build which is causing huge markups. I dont think lumber prices are a main factor in high overall costs but certainly a factor.





Being able to buy a house with low down payment has no correlation to the 08 crash. The 08 crash was wide scale fraud.
Yep. Mortgages were in high demand to resell as MBS/derivatives so the bankers were handing out mortgages to pretty much anyone.

https://www.thebalance.com/role-of-d...crisis-3970477

The idea that consumers were the ones to blame rather than the bankers handing out inappropriate loans was convenient and is the story the media pushed. Generally we blamed the junkies while rescuing the drug dealer "victims".
Originally Posted By Peacening⏩
No because home ownership has become consolidated. The number of people who own the home they live in has plummeted while the number of people who own 10+, 20+, 50+ homes has skyrocketed.

With the instability of the u.s. economy (impending collapse and downfall from world superpower to moderate place on the world economic spectrum)anyone with a high income is recognizing they need to tie up their money in physical investments like real estate.
Exactly.
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