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Forum » When do you calculate you will be able to retire?
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Thread: When do you calculate you will be able to retire?

post 1639894523 06-01-2021, 09:30 AM
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When do you calculate you will be able to retire?

For me personally, I think I'd need roughly $2 million net worth to realistically consider retirement. This way maybe half is in steady/reliable investments, so $1 mill generating 10% growth of $100k annually. And the other half of that net worth is put towards other investments, paid off house, and some fun things too.

I'm 26. My current net worth is roughly $95k when you factor in everything (retirement, non-retirement, car value, emergency fund, some crypto, lack of any debts). Liquid non-retirement is closer to $25-30k. I'm gonna pretend the car isn't a factor, nor the emergency fund, since those things aren't going to grow for me at all over time, so let's say I have like $65k investing currently. After you factor overtime, bonuses, and those sorts of things I think it's realistic for me to say I can invest/save $3k a month on top of my CoL + taxes.

Assuming 10% growth annually, a starting point of $65k, and of course things aren't changing and I can continue to invest/save $3k/mo (and this number doesn't increase from promotion, or decrease from job loss), I can retire in 18 years. Yup so by age of 44 I'd reach $2 million net worth. Kinda sad to think about honestly, was hoping to be closer into the mid/late 30's.

When do you calculate you'll retire? What are your considerations?
post 1639894673 06-01-2021, 09:34 AM
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"Assuming 10% growth".....that's a ridiculous assumption.
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post 1639895003 06-01-2021, 09:40 AM
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62 is my plan, could I do it sooner? Maybe.

Federal employee (so pension) + aggressively throwing money into TSP/401k (I got a real late start though unfortunately) which should easily be well into the 7 figures barring any catastrophes. Then maybe even Social Security too, but I'm not counting on that still being around.
post 1639895283 06-01-2021, 09:44 AM
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I can retire prob around 45.

I never want to fully retire. Work gives me purpose in life
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post 1639895453 06-01-2021, 09:46 AM
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I’m more concerned about how long I’ll be useful and valuable
post 1639895523 06-01-2021, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I’m more concerned about how long I’ll be useful and valuable
exactly repped
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post 1639895553 06-01-2021, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted By HYDRAE⏩
"Assuming 10% growth".....that's a ridiculous assumption.
Gotta calculate somehow. Is 5% better? 15%? I'm gonna stick with 10% for the sake of this. Who knows if it'll be better or worse, depends on my investments.
post 1639895723 06-01-2021, 09:51 AM
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My full union pension kicks in @ 62, but I'm shooting to be able to comfortably retire with a partial pension several years before that via investments if I play my cards right.
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post 1639896783 06-01-2021, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted By Visel⏩
Gotta calculate somehow. Is 5% better? 15%? I'm gonna stick with 10% for the sake of this. Who knows if it'll be better or worse, depends on my investments.
5-8% is industry standard.
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post 1639897263 06-01-2021, 10:14 AM
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Three years ago. Retired at 48.
post 1639902563 06-01-2021, 11:25 AM
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Probably never retire - Move to some boomer town and do odd jobs for the old sloots for gumjobs.
post 1639902883 06-01-2021, 11:29 AM
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post 1639903753 06-01-2021, 11:42 AM
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prob never if the dems taxes the fuk out of everything and ill be wage cucking until I die
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post 1639904373 06-01-2021, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted By Visel⏩
Assuming 10% growth annually, a starting point of $65k, and of course things aren't changing and I can continue to invest/save $3k/mo (and this number doesn't increase from promotion, or decrease from job loss), I can retire in 18 years. Yup so by age of 44 I'd reach $2 million net worth. Kinda sad to think about honestly, was hoping to be closer into the mid/late 30's.
You forget taxes on withdrawals and inflation so 2MM in 18 years is at least 1/3 less. Then there are expenses you dont think about today but will in future - healthcare, child costs (assuming you want kids), college, hobbies/travel (if not working you will find something to do and that takes cash). So the 100K withdrawal is closer to 65K net of taxes and then worth 45K in todays dollars. Thats before the extra items I noted.
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post 1639904643 06-01-2021, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted By BKLYNBOY⏩
You forget taxes on withdrawals and inflation so 2MM in 18 years is at least 1/3 less. Then there are expenses you dont think about today but will in future - healthcare, child costs (assuming you want kids), college, hobbies/travel (if not working you will find something to do and that takes cash). So the 100K withdrawal is closer to 65K net of taxes and then worth 45K in todays dollars. Thats before the extra items I noted.
Also not taking future inflation into account.

We know for sure that the dollar will be worth less, maybe even worthless.
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post 1639904813 06-01-2021, 11:55 AM
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post 1639904983 06-01-2021, 11:57 AM
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post 1639905403 06-01-2021, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted By BKLYNBOY⏩
You forget taxes on withdrawals and inflation so 2MM in 18 years is at least 1/3 less. Then there are expenses you dont think about today but will in future - healthcare, child costs (assuming you want kids), college, hobbies/travel (if not working you will find something to do and that takes cash). So the 100K withdrawal is closer to 65K net of taxes and then worth 45K in todays dollars. Thats before the extra items I noted.
Originally Posted By MBisonSon⏩
Also not taking future inflation into account.

We know for sure that the dollar will be worth less, maybe even worthless.
Yeah I agree I didn't consider those things. At least not in the OP, some of that was in my head, both inflation and taxes, just felt it would be easier (though unrealistic) to calculate without. At the end of the day this is for fun and to get people's brains going. 18 years from now I could be at only a $1 million net worth, or perhaps even negative net worth. The further out we go the harder it becomes to be accurate haha.

A goal of mine for calculating this, even in a short handed naive way, is to try to get some level of prediction in my head about whether or not I'd be able to retire in my 30's. If the answer is no, and clearly it's not, even with unrealistically generous conditions/numbers, then I need to change something. Perhaps level up in career. Invest heavier into aggressive markets. Work a 2nd job. Whatever it may be. It's good to realize the inadequacy of myself, to remind myself that I'm not satisfied with where I'm at.
post 1639905563 06-01-2021, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted By BKLYNBOY⏩
You forget taxes on withdrawals and inflation so 2MM in 18 years is at least 1/3 less. Then there are expenses you dont think about today but will in future - healthcare, child costs (assuming you want kids), college, hobbies/travel (if not working you will find something to do and that takes cash). So the 100K withdrawal is closer to 65K net of taxes and then worth 45K in todays dollars. Thats before the extra items I noted.
The tax rate wouldn't be 1/3 realistically, it would be closer to ~15% (long-term capital gains). Even with a traditional 401k being withdrawn from (wouldn't happen for several decades in this scenario anyways), the tax rate could still be kept relatively low by keeping income in the lowest income tax bracket (~$40k/yr currently, about what the minimum withdrawal for a 401k would be in this scenario) and using capital gains/qualified dividends for any additional income needed

OP I'd just assume a long-term inflation rate of ~3% with your current model (this assumption is somewhat tied with your net worth appreciation rate , but believe 3% inflation ties well with the ~10% annual stock market return assumption). But you could calculate how much more money you'd need in 10-20 years with that 3% annual inflation rate vs. without
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