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Forum » This guy is predicting a housing crash in the next 2 years....
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Thread: This guy is predicting a housing crash in the next 2 years....

post 1647126323 09-15-2021, 09:35 PM
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This guy is predicting a housing crash in the next 2 years....

According to his videos prices are ballooning in certain areas, particularly in the sunbelt states, like during the last housing bubble, and according to his stats there aren't enough new people moving to these states to justify this increase in price, and that these prices are completely disconnected from the local wages and economy, and over the long term they're unsustainable. He also says that Blackrock isn't actually buying up all that much now, and neither are the Chinese, and that's it's mostly smaller speculators (people that own less than 10 properties). Thoughts?







post 1647126463 09-15-2021, 09:37 PM
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So homeowners in liberal chitholes will suffer the most? Sounds great
post 1647126573 09-15-2021, 09:39 PM
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So as a homeowner what does this mean for me? Sell now, later, fist myself?
post 1647126633 09-15-2021, 09:40 PM
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Originally Posted By AlfBundy⏩
So homeowners in liberal chitholes will suffer the most? Sounds great
According to him the hardest hit areas might be Austin, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, and to a lesser extent, but also, Arizona and Florida. A lot of it is regional in those areas too.
post 1647126713 09-15-2021, 09:42 PM
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Didn’t watch videos but we won’t have a crash the way we saw in 06-08. That was caused by the sub prime mortgage industry (which was government sponsored).

Technically everyone buying a house now should be able to afford their payment even if their value plummets.

I think we might have an inverse where prices continue to sky rocket. Reason being recent buyers won’t want to sell in a market with lower prices. So you’ll have less inventory.

Either way it’s not good. And either way it’s important to note it was caused by the fed.
post 1647126823 09-15-2021, 09:44 PM
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Originally Posted By markkillerings⏩
So as a homeowner what does this mean for me? Sell now, later, fist myself?
This stuff is pretty hard to predict, which is why I'm also curious to see what people on here say. It does make sense that in a place like Boise, the sort of price increases they've seen are unsustainable, even if getting a loan isn't nearly as easy as it was during the last bubble. If the stats he shows are correct, the amount of people migrating is exaggerated, and much of this is speculation driven. It's also not sustainable relative to local wages. There are a few exceptions to this, like coastal California, where there's an ongoing housing shortage, but in a lot of these booming areas there aren't geographical constrains, and building is picking up.
post 1647127013 09-15-2021, 09:48 PM
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What’s the bet the guy in the video is a rentcel
post 1647127043 09-15-2021, 09:48 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
According to him the hardest hit areas might be Austin, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, and to a lesser extent, but also, Arizona and Florida. A lot of it is regional in those areas too.
Lol at thinking Austin will crash. Yeah sure, the city with the largest influx of fortune-500 employers will collapse
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post 1647127123 09-15-2021, 09:50 PM
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Blackrock has enough wealth/leverage to buy every foreclosed home in the country.
A million miles away - I don't.. feel.... anything.
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post 1647127263 09-15-2021, 09:52 PM
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This dd is so fking elementary I honestly can’t tell if you’re trolling or just stupid. This is like if Sesame Street did an episode on the real estate market. Imagine just watching YouTube videos and thinking you have any idea what you’re talking about lol
post 1647127403 09-15-2021, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted By LinuxJon⏩
Lol at thinking Austin will crash. Yeah sure, the city with the largest influx of fortune-500 employers will collapse
Totally agree with you Not happening in Austin or Dallas area, Same in Az the central valley is growing faster than ever, I have talked about this vary thing among investors and Mortgage People, builders, real estate Crash Not happening at least not within no 2 yrs. No way I am selling any our properties.
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post 1647127443 09-15-2021, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted By Masterchieffer⏩
This dd is so fking elementary I honestly can’t tell if you’re trolling or just stupid. This is like if Sesame Street did an episode on the real estate market. Imagine just watching YouTube videos and thinking you have any idea what you’re talking about lol
I never made any such claims, and I made this thread because I'm interested in seeing what other people say when they go over this material. It's not elementary to me, which is why I want to hear what other people have to say.
post 1647127513 09-15-2021, 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted By seanb1979⏩
Blackrock has enough wealth/leverage to buy every foreclosed home in the country.
According to what he's showing, they were more active buying after the last crash, not now as prices are spiking.
post 1647127743 09-15-2021, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted By charlievanriper⏩
Totally agree with you Not happening in Austin or Dallas area, Same in Az the central valley is growing faster than ever, I have talked about this vary thing among investors and Mortgage People, builders, real estate Crash Not happening at least not within no 2 yrs. No way I am selling any our properties.
Yep. These areas are largely being expanded by people making six figures, and who are more likely to see any dip as an investment opportunity than a problem.

In Austin for example, the majority of homes actually go to buyers who can do either full of partial appraisals waivers as part of the offer. Those arenotpeople who are gonna need to panic sell their home.

I would be more nervous in places like Southern California. They have a net loss in population and are seeing massive price increases.
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post 1647127753 09-15-2021, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Thoughts?
People trying to predict the market (or pretend to) usually end up having a bad time. But even a broken clock is right twice a day.







These talks will go on forever but its just pure blabber. None of these "crash predictors" sell their house even though they "know" what will happen
post 1647127913 09-15-2021, 10:07 PM
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  1. coast2coastam
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Originally Posted By LinuxJon⏩
Lol at thinking Austin will crash. Yeah sure, the city with the largest influx of fortune-500 employers will collapse
Originally Posted By charlievanriper⏩
Totally agree with you Not happening in Austin or Dallas area, Same in Az the central valley is growing faster than ever, I have talked about this vary thing among investors and Mortgage People, builders, real estate Crash Not happening at least not within no 2 yrs. No way I am selling any our properties.
11:18 he talks about Austin here:
post 1647128133 09-15-2021, 10:14 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
According to what he's showing, they were more active buying after the last crash, not now as prices are spiking.
Could be.

The "housing crash" videos started popping up at least 2 months ago FWIW. The two purported causes I've seen were the end of the forbearances/eviction moratorium and the Fed tapering their purchasing of mortgage based financial products.

I'm pretty much like...



There is just so much weird stuff going on at once. Also RE is still more local than national.

TX is not CA [yet] and stuff like this little 2 bed/1 bath listed for over $400K blows my mind. The valuation was only around $140K as recently as 2014.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...4_M80794-32731
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post 1647128823 09-15-2021, 10:31 PM
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GTA Ontariocel here. I've been hearing about this for the last 15 years and the prices just keep going up.
post 1647129043 09-15-2021, 10:36 PM
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post 1647129093 09-15-2021, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
There is just so much weird stuff going on at once. Also RE is still more local than national.

TX is not CA [yet] and stuff like this little 2 bed/1 bath listed for over $400K blows my mind. The valuation was only around $140K as recently as 2014.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...4_M80794-32731
It's insane how quickly it happened in some of these markets. According to that link that house was listed for $199k as recently as 2018.
Originally Posted By woadito⏩
GTA Ontariocel here. I've been hearing about this for the last 15 years and the prices just keep going up.
It's the same in a lot of Australia from what I've heard.
post 1647129983 09-15-2021, 10:58 PM
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They probably won’t crash, although banks are doing strange things with cash these days, people are over leveraged with home equity lines to buy new Teslas and go on expensive vacations for the gram to keep up with the joneses, and Chinese real estate giant Evergrand is on the verge (big part of the price balloning on the coasts) of eating schiit; but who NOSE.

I suspect maybe a 10% temporary pull back or thereabouts, but not a full on collapse, especially in places like Texas which didn’t even eat shiit last time in ‘08 when places like SoCal and Seattle saw 50%+ price collapses. I’m just going to keep buying and holding long term, even if it falls apart it’ll eventually return even higher and I’ve got many decades to go before retiring when I’d think about unloading everything and fukking off

Also, knew it was this baldcel before clicking thread
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post 1647130193 09-15-2021, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
11:18 he talks about Austin here:
This guy is an idiot. Typical youtube brah who decides to invent a theory and then cherry-pick supporting info to sound brilliant.

His argument of "Vegas is building fewer new homes than Austin because of inherited wisdom from the last crash" is actually apechit insane. First, it totally ignores the fact that home builders are gigantic, national/international corporations. Decisions aren't being made by some hick who has never left his town. Second, it ignores the fact that the industry supporting Vegas (tourism) has steadily declined and now collapsed, whereas the industries supporting Austin (tech) are thriving. lol
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post 1647130423 09-15-2021, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted By ThatGuy950⏩
They probably won’t crash, although banks are doing strange things with cash these days, people are over leveraged with home equity lines to buy new Teslas and go on expensive vacations for the gram to keep up with the joneses, and Chinese real estate giant Evergrand is on the verge (big part of the price balloning on the coasts) of eating schiit; but who NOSE.

I suspect maybe a 10% temporary pull back or thereabouts, but not a full on collapse,
especially in places like Texas which didn’t even eat shiit last time in ‘08 when places like SoCal and Seattle saw 50%+ price collapses.I’m just going to keep buying and holding long term, even if it falls apart it’ll eventually return even higher and I’ve got many decades to go before retiring when I’d think about unloading everything and fukking off

Also, knew it was this baldcel before clicking thread
He talks about that here:
Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
11:18 he talks about Austin here:
What do you think about what he's saying?
post 1647130813 09-15-2021, 11:19 PM
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Originally Posted By LinuxJon⏩
This guy is an idiot. Typical youtube brah who decides to invent a theory and then cherry-pick supporting info to sound brilliant.

His argument of "Vegas is building fewer new homes than Austin because of inherited wisdom from the last crash" is actually apechit insane. First, it totally ignores the fact that home builders are gigantic, national/international corporations. Decisions aren't being made by some hick who has never left his town.Second, it ignores the fact that the industry supporting Vegas (tourism) has steadily declined and now collapsed, whereas the industries supporting Austin (tech) are thriving.lol
He talks about that here starting at 6:48:


I've been binge watching these videos for the last few weeks lol

Idk, maybe he's totally wrong, but a lot of this makes more sense to me than that shack in Fredericksburg Texas going from $199k to $410k in such a short time.
post 1647185993 09-16-2021, 06:39 PM
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My house sure as hell isn't what redfin says it is.
post 1647186463 09-16-2021, 06:48 PM
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jfc you fukking morons I've been saying this all year

there are LESS SALES

there are LESS HOUSES GOING TO MARKET IN THE FIRST PLACE

the only thing holding the price up is the NUMBER OF BUYERS remained the same while NUMBER OF SELLERS decreased

oh my fukking god
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post 1647186773 09-16-2021, 06:52 PM
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post 1647186903 09-16-2021, 06:55 PM
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Cope.


Stop being delusional and hoping that the "bubble will burst" and you'll be able to buy real estate at a reduced price.
post 1647187653 09-16-2021, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble⏩
Cope.


Stop being delusional and hoping that the "bubble will burst" and you'll be able to buy real estate at a reduced price.
lol ure dumb. once people simply start listing their houses this chit is GOING TO BURN.

PERIOD
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post 1647187723 09-16-2021, 07:08 PM
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As long as phaggotslike op keep calling for a crash, it aint happening.
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