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Forum » It's over for "I'll be waiting with cash for the housing market to crash-cels"
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Thread: It's over for "I'll be waiting with cash for the housing market to crash-cels"

post 1657197243 03-02-2022, 09:47 AM
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It's over for "I'll be waiting with cash for the housing market to crash-cels"

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-...ar-2022-03-02/
BENGALURU, March 2 (Reuters) - U.S. house prices are set to climb in double digits this year even as the Federal Reserve embarks on its expected series of interest rate hikes, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who forecast a sellers' market for another two years.

Record low interest rates and a scarcity of homes to buy, combined with unexpectedly explosive demand during the pandemic, sent the average house price up 17% last year, the strongest annual rise in at least two decades.


The Feb. 8-28 poll of 33 property analysts suggested U.S. house prices would rise 10.3% this year. That was an upgrade from 8.0% in the December poll, suggesting underlying demand for housing is still strong and housing supply is still tight.

Prices are forecast to rise 5.0% next year and 4.1% in 2024, marginal upgrades compared with 4.0% and 3.7% in the last poll.

Predictions are based on the Case/Shiller index.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing conflict has injected some caution into interest rate expectations, which could keep 30-year mortgage rates lower and in turn may leave the near-term trend largely intact.




A like-for-like analysis showed 12 of 18 analysts had upgraded their predictions from the December poll. While four kept them unchanged, two analysts downgraded them.

Roughly 57% of analysts, or 17 of 30, predicted double-digit house price rises this year, nearly double the 30% in the last poll. All but one of 27 analysts said it would remain a sellers' market this year and will only turn in 2024.
Who would have thought that a finite commodity that is in even more demand than ever, and with runaway inflation, would lead to prices INCREASING?!? And don't even get started with the cope of defaults... lending practices have never been as stringent as they have been since the 08 crash.


Spoiler!
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post 1657197653 03-02-2022, 09:55 AM
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  1. Bracket199
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Time in the market > timing the market

Bank of Canada just raised rates by 0.25%. Not going to make a massive shift in the RE industry; and it will still be a sellers' market.
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post 1657197763 03-02-2022, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
Time in the market > timing the market

Bank of Canada just raised rates by 0.25%. Not going to make a massive shift in the RE industry; and it will still be a sellers' market.
rates just came down in the US
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1657198033 03-02-2022, 10:01 AM
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Cliffs:

Tripods paid in full residential home and rental properties going up in value.


LOL @ rentcels.
post 1657198083 03-02-2022, 10:02 AM
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its gameover tbh.


blackrock / vanguard just gonna buy up all the homes. oh you saved 20% down like a good little boy in hopes to get a home? lol jk here comes blackrock outbidding you by 400k
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post 1657198183 03-02-2022, 10:04 AM
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you will soon have to get on government subsidies to survive

demographics is destiny
post 1657198433 03-02-2022, 10:07 AM
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I can't speak for other areas, but in my area, the supply is almost non-existent.

Single family ranch, colonial, bi-level homes are almost never for sale. You can either buy the handful that are available at massively inflated prices, or, buy new construction for half a million and up. There seems to be no end to the supply of available new construction homes.

Single homes, in good neighborhoods, built between 1960 and 2000, are almost impossible to get. Nobody wants to sell their house because there is nothing to buy after you sell it.
post 1657198693 03-02-2022, 10:10 AM
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Meanwhile, I own a rental that is looking like I'll walk away with $150k this summer when I sell. feelsgoodman
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post 1657198713 03-02-2022, 10:11 AM
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Housing will decrease in value. But it will increase in number of dollars it's worth. Stop conflating the two, and stop thinking in terms of dollars, which are rapidly inflating into non-existence.
post 1657198723 03-02-2022, 10:11 AM
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To add to my previous post, I feel beyond blessed to have been able to purchase my home in 2013, which has doubled in value since I bought it. Seriously, I can sell it for 100% more than what I paid for it less than 10 years ago, maybe more.

Then what? Lol rent an apartment while I sit on tons of cash waiting for my dream home to come available at an affordable price? Nah, I'll just hang onto my great investment.
post 1657198823 03-02-2022, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
But why would you sell?
I feel like values are at peak, or close to it Plus, renters in Memphis are ghetto pieces of shyt and it's hard to find good renters. I've been renting it for 12 years. Just looking for a different investment. The renters I have now are the best I've had....They're from Utah and going back in July.
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post 1657199063 03-02-2022, 10:16 AM
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Who wouldve thought that if covid killed millions of people, why arent there millions of houses on the market?

Or if all races have below replacement fertility rates, eventually there will be more homes than people?


Houses are only expensive because its fake. Our currency is fake, the demand is fake, and it will all eventually come tumbling down. Lroblem is we have other **** to worry about before a housing colapse.
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post 1657199183 03-02-2022, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted By yewotm8⏩
Housing will decrease in value. But it will increase in number of dollars it's worth. Stop conflating the two, and stop thinking in terms of dollars, which are rapidly inflating into non-existence.
mental gymnastics aren't the cure for cope.
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1657199203 03-02-2022, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
Time in the market > timing the market

Bank of Canada just raised rates by 0.25%. Not going to make a massive shift in the RE industry; and it will still be a sellers' market.
and in this case

time out of the market>timing the market
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post 1657199293 03-02-2022, 10:20 AM
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Markets have evolved to only go up. They can never go down.

Amazing times we live in. It can't get any better than this.
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post 1657200133 03-02-2022, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted By Mountaineer92⏩
its gameover tbh.


blackrock / vanguard just gonna buy up all the homes. oh you saved 20% down like a good little boy in hopes to get a home? lol jk here comes blackrock outbidding you by 400k
It's disturbing how many residential homes they're buying, which is definitely responsible for a lot of housing inflation.
Locally here 1 in 3 houses being purchased are by investors, more than just Blackrock. Of course a bubble is forming, it's a matter of when it becomes unsustainable. Trying to predict precisely when is like trying to time the stock market. Many have tried, most fail when attempting that.

For housing it still comes back to the P/E ratio. Have people's incomes gone up 25% in the last 2 years? No. I figured this quarter we'd not see a crash but a small dip or flatline start. Foreclosures are at their highest level since before the pandemic and are going to increase. Due to the feds postponing last year foreclosures have just started in 2022 instead of Q3 and Q4 2021. But then a few factors combined, including supply chain issues have caused new housing starts to stall. Builders are waiting for less volatility in prices of timber, copper, etc.

Back in 2008 the housing crash caused a stock market dive. It would have to be the other way around this time. A bear market in stocks that lasts just a few months would cause a lot of housing sell offs. A lot will depend on the Federal Reserve's decisions on rates this year. If they bring rates back to what they were 3-4 yrs ago, housing cools off for sure.
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post 1657200213 03-02-2022, 10:42 AM
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Glad I bought in winter of 2020 das it mane
post 1657200363 03-02-2022, 10:44 AM
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I know of 2 personally that thought they were smarter than everyone else and lost big time. 1 sold a year ago to cash out thinking they would get a jump on a crash but are trying to buy and cant get anything within their budget and the other didnt buy when he should have back in 2020 and now is priced out of the market.

meanwhile californiavirus has my house going up a quarter mil or more a year
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post 1657200373 03-02-2022, 10:44 AM
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Really need to jump back on that rental property time.

With the losses in the portfolio currently (thanks sleepy joe), it's tough to come off the cash.
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post 1657200913 03-02-2022, 10:50 AM
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Love how house prices have actually doubled in the last 2 years, but the fact that no one is buying houses in the ghettos brings it down to “17%” to make the rise seem less dramatic.
mo e
post 1657200933 03-02-2022, 10:51 AM
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  1. Bracket199
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
and in this case

time out of the market>timing the market
How so? Paying off a debt to live mortgage-free is the best thing you can do when you become an oldcel

The only way this would work is if you sold before; and bought after a crash. People are treating housing like it's stocks these days.
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post 1657201373 03-02-2022, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted By BalognaNbeans⏩
Glad I bought in winter of 2020 das it mane
Same. Value has increased over 30% since and will only keep going up, guaranteed.
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post 1657201493 03-02-2022, 11:01 AM
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Can someone explain to me how the pandemic had an effect on home prices ?????
post 1657201653 03-02-2022, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Halted new construction for a while back in 2020 in a lot of markets, resulting in lack of supply.
Additionally, red states like mine have suffered a massive influx of Cali ****s buying at outrageous prices.
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post 1657201673 03-02-2022, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
How so? Paying off a debt to live mortgage-free is the best thing you can do when you become an oldcel.
I'd rather use someone else's money and keep the hundreds of thousands of dollars in my pocket for other investments to make more money on...

But if you want to come off....6 figures....to put a few hundo in your pocket a month instead of investing...thats none of my business.
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post 1657201793 03-02-2022, 11:05 AM
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there will be opportunities in the future, but the global financial system will be in tatters lol
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post 1657201933 03-02-2022, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Halted new construction for a while back in 2020 in a lot of markets, resulting in lack of supply.
And of course lending rates dropped to nothing in March 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/fede...g-program.html
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post 1657202023 03-02-2022, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted By twovalvekid⏩
I'd rather use someone else's money and keep the hundreds of thousands of dollars in my pocket for other investments to make more money on...

But if you want to come off....6 figures....to put a few hundo in your pocket a month instead of investing...thats none of my business.
What are you investing in that will beat the market of paying off a house? How is your ROI lower on a house than whatever investment you're talking about.

Secondly, what are you doing that will keep the annuity of your 6-figure salary when you retire? If you say investments - please elaborate on the investments discussed.
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post 1657202243 03-02-2022, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted By blueberryboy⏩
Can someone explain to me how the pandemic had an effect on home prices ?????
It cut mortgage rates to 2%, so you could afford a lot more home for the same monthly payment.

The current home price spike is fueled by cheap mortgages, which are set according to bond prices, which have been sent to subterranean depths by central bankers, who are accountable to no one. This party ends whenever they say it will, and who the fuk knows when that will be. 20% inflation and 0% interest rates are a sign of a deeply broken financial system.
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post 1657202423 03-02-2022, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
What are you investing in that will beat the market of paying off a house? How is your ROI lower on a house than whatever investment you're talking about.

Secondly, what are you doing that will keep the annuity of your 6-figure salary when you retire? If you say investments - please elaborate on the investments discussed.
Paying off a house with say....150K cash in your pocket....is ridiculous at this stage. Or putting extra every month to pay it off.

That 150k or "extra" could be put in an account to invest and actually make money on.

Dumping 6 figures of cash to put....say...500 bucks a month in your pocket...is just fukking stupid. Put that money into stonks and forget about it and enjoy your 7% (on average) return on even a junk index fund that mimics the S&P 500. As long as you can earn more interest than what your APR is on your mortgage, it is not smart to pay off ahead of time. And i'd argue it would almost never be a good idea. Use the banks money and keep your own $$$ in your pocket each month to make money with.
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