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» What’s the over/under on how long until China invades Taiwan
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post 1658217053 03-19-2022, 01:02 PM
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What’s the over/under on how long until China invades Taiwan

It’s going to happen. I saw within the next year.
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post 1658217273 03-19-2022, 01:04 PM
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Yeah seems very likely

Especially due to how important chip manufacturing is today as a result of shortages and high demand. It's the perfect time to hit Taiwan and assert control of global chip distribution. When they do that it's literally all over for the west.
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post 1658217363 03-19-2022, 01:06 PM
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I now have doubts they will after watching Russia’s cancellation

If they make a move like that, they’d need to be ready to cut themselves off from the entire rest of the world
post 1658217493 03-19-2022, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted By Coal
Yeah seems very likely

Especially due to how important chip manufacturing is today as a result of shortages and high demand. It's the perfect time to hit Taiwan and assert control of global chip distribution. When they do that it's literally all over for the west.
I think they make about 80% of all the chips.

I think Taiwan needs some freedom

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post 1658217563 03-19-2022, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor
I now have doubts they will after watching Russia’s cancellation

If they make a move like that, they’d need to be ready to cut themselves off from the entire rest of the world
Sanctions are garbage and useless. Many studies on this. Russia will just sell their oil in unmarked barrels on the black market.

Sanctions are for normies to feel good about themselves.
The misc is full of a bunch of simp ****ots
post 1658217593 03-19-2022, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor
I now have doubts they will after watching Russia’s cancellation

If they make a move like that, they’d need to be ready to cut themselves off from the entire rest of the world
And the rest of the world needs to be ready to cut off from China lol...good luck

It's easy for the West to cut dependance on Russia, just don't buy their oil. But good luck not depending on China
post 1658218043 03-19-2022, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted By BrianDaMan
And the rest of the world needs to be ready to cut off from China lol...good luck

It's easy for the West to cut dependance on Russia, just don't buy their oil. But good luck not depending on China
This. China is a whole different ballgame. You can't ignore or cut off China lmfao. They have leverage to do whatever the phuck they want now.
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post 1658218263 03-19-2022, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted By BrianDaMan
And the rest of the world needs to be ready to cut off from China lol...good luck

It's easy for the West to cut dependance on Russia, just don't buy their oil. But good luck not depending on China
The West yes, Europe cutting dependence on Russia is tougher but they're still moving in that direction. China also depends heavily on the rest of the world for buying their cheap goods and putting our manufacturing etc there, which is what keeps their economy running

At the beginning I would have and did say that Russia vs Ukraine was a precursor to China going after Taiwan, but I think the reaction against Russia is way beyond what anyone expected and is a taste of what China would face if they made a move
Originally Posted By DivineMasculine
Sanctions are garbage and useless. Many studies on this. Russia will just sell their oil in unmarked barrels on the black market.

Sanctions are for normies to feel good about themselves.
Sanctions on Russian oil weren't even required, the situation itself made customers not want to touch it despite zero real sanctions on their crude oil. Now Russia is selling to India at who knows how steep of a discount.
post 1658218273 03-19-2022, 01:24 PM
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It'd be a hard invasion as there is a lot of water inbetween and China has no combat experience. I also read a lot of the West Coast of Taiwan is cliffs so the landing points will be well defended.

But then I suppose they could flatten the country with missiles first but that doesn't seem to fit their goals.

Also, what is the Taiwan army like? I have a feeling they are soy boys and not hard-core like Ukrainians. But I might be wrong on this. Can any misc military brahs aware me?
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post 1658218303 03-19-2022, 01:24 PM
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The Departed came out in 2006. In that movie it was said "we'll be at war with chyna in 20 or so years". They were talking about chinese microprocessors btw



post 1658218453 03-19-2022, 01:27 PM
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China has been stockpiling grain for at least two years and gold for decades. I'd say they are are going to make their move very soonv especially considering who's currently in the White house. There is no telling who will be elected next so they will take their shot while the US is extremely weak.
Originally Posted By Destor
I now have doubts they will after watching Russia’s cancellation

If they make a move like that, they’d need to be ready to cut themselves off from the entire rest of the world
Russia is fine and will weather the storm. China will do so even easier. Further, the West's dependence on China will mean that there isn't much that can actually be done in the first place.
Still Cuckin On Four Fours, Wrapped In Four Voes
post 1658218533 03-19-2022, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted By janglingjack
It'd be a hard invasion as there is a lot of water inbetween and China has no combat experience. I also read a lot of the West Coast of Taiwan is cliffs so the landing points will be well defended.

But then I suppose they could flatten the country with missiles first but that doesn't seem to fit their goals.

Also, what is the Taiwan army like? I have a feeling they are soy boys and not hard-core like Ukrainians. But I might be wrong on this. Can any misc military brahs aware me?
Top 20 military (but that’s not saying much)

I guess China is building up it’s helicopters on their border.
The misc is full of a bunch of simp ****ots
post 1658218643 03-19-2022, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted By A-GAME
China has been stockpiling grain for at least two years and gold for decades. I'd say they are are going to make their move very soonv especially considering who's currently in the White house. There is no telling who will be elected next so they will take their shot while the US is extremely weak.
I agree.

Russia and China have been stacking gold for years. Russia might even go back to a gold standard and say Fook swift.

America has no great resources other than the world reserve currency which countries are trying to get away from. It’s over in this country.

Every weekend and your kids school system will look like this.

The misc is full of a bunch of simp ****ots
post 1658218753 03-19-2022, 01:33 PM
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If China do invade surely they'll just say what Russia has said, anyone that intervenes will get nuked. What will our answer be to that? Risk nuclear war for Taiwan? I mean its worked in Ukraine, though I suppose Ukraine isn't important to the US.

I think if China invade, we blockade the shipping route their oil imports use. The Malacca strait is it? The can't get enough oil and gas from Russia via land
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post 1658218863 03-19-2022, 01:36 PM
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isn't the Taiwan sea supposed to be calm starting in April?

Probably invade then.
What comes around comes around
I want to believe
post 1658218953 03-19-2022, 01:38 PM
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Taiwan is one of the top chip manufacturers in the world.... China will not risk leveling the country and losing that vital supply chain.... It's gonna be interesting to see how they plan to take the country without having to use military force.
Everything I post is satire.
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post 1658219003 03-19-2022, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted By janglingjack
It'd be a hard invasion as there is a lot of water inbetween and China has no combat experience. I also read a lot of the West Coast of Taiwan is cliffs so the landing points will be well defended.

But then I suppose they could flatten the country with missiles first but that doesn't seem to fit their goals.

Also, what is the Taiwan army like? I have a feeling they are soy boys and not hard-core like Ukrainians. But I might be wrong on this. Can any misc military brahs aware me?
I don't see why China would invade when their education reform last century is already paying off and they can easily cruise to pole position. Flattening Taiwan whilst trying to control the microchip market doesn't compute.

edit: Gandalf the Ghey above me
post 1658219113 03-19-2022, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted By A-GAME
China has been stockpiling grain for at least two years and gold for decades. I'd say they are are going to make their move very soonv especially considering who's currently in the White house. There is no telling who will be elected next so they will take their shot while the US is extremely weak.

Russia is fine and will weather the storm. China will do so even easier. Further, the West's dependence on China will mean that there isn't much that can actually be done in the first place.
Russia wasn't doing fine even before this lol, their GDP per Capita is lower than China's. China's is brought down by a massive rural population so it's a bit skewed in that way, but standard of living in Russia was already not good going into the invasion


China still has that massive rural population -- like 600million people -- they need to bring out of poverty and they can't do it without the rest of the world
post 1658219293 03-19-2022, 01:41 PM
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Everything I post is satire.
Tricknology Grand Master.
post 1658219303 03-19-2022, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted By Schnitzl
I don't see why China would invade when their education reform last century is already paying off and they can easily cruise to pole position. Flattening Taiwan whilst trying to control the microchip market doesn't compute.

edit: Gandalf the Ghey above me
Truth. China always play the long game. They can just sit back and watch America destroy itself with BLM and gay lives matter crap (which has been encouraged by Russia and probably China on social media since the 90s, read alexsandr dugin book about it)

I guess it all depends if Xi is an ego maniac who wants a legacy
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post 1658220053 03-19-2022, 01:58 PM
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Philippines is a better option strategically to invade.
post 1658220273 03-19-2022, 02:04 PM
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China has no living war history and their government replies on propaganda to convince their population that their authoritative system is the best.

They have zero combat experience and an inflexible leadership style. They will not invade Taiwan until they are completely sure of victory, and the Russian war has forced two things- NATO members are investing in defense and the American public is not opposed to war if the cause is good. I think this whole thing has pushed the Chinese invasion back decades.
post 1658220503 03-19-2022, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1
China has no living war history and their government replies on propaganda to convince their population that their authoritative system is the best.

They have zero combat experience and an inflexible leadership style. They will not invade Taiwan until they are completely sure of victory, and the Russian war has forced two things- NATO members are investing in defense and the American public is not opposed to war if the cause is good. I think this whole thing has pushed the Chinese invasion back decades.
I disagree. China hasn’t been in wars recently but pre 1940’s they were in constant conflict. They have the second largest army in the world and they want power because the leader wants to leave a legacy.

https://military-history.fandom.com/...rs_and_battles
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post 1658221023 03-19-2022, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted By DivineMasculine
I disagree. China hasn’t been in wars recently but pre 1940’s they were in constant conflict. They have the second largest army in the world and they want power because the leader wants to leave a legacy.

https://military-history.fandom.com/...rs_and_battles
China has no combat experience

https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/11/ch...it-matter.html

As a veteran myself I don't buy that combat experience is the be all end all, but as this article notes they also suffer from an 'obsolete command system, rampant corruption, and training of debatable realism, among other issues.'

Their leaders are more afraid of disappointing the party than real world failure. Combined with no real world combat experience that just won't get the job done.

If I was China I'd be inserting myself into every conflict I could and learning what does and doesn't work.
post 1658221143 03-19-2022, 02:27 PM
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10+ years. Xi is more cautious, patient and realistic than Putin. The Chinese will wait until their navy is so large that the US can't win a conventional war before striking.
"A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand."
post 1658221273 03-19-2022, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1
China has no combat experience

https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/11/ch...it-matter.html

As a veteran myself I don't buy that combat experience is the be all end all, but as this article notes they also suffer from an 'obsolete command system, rampant corruption, and training of debatable realism, among other issues.'

Their leaders are more afraid of disappointing the party than real world failure. Combined with no real world combat experience that just won't get the job done.

If I was China I'd be inserting myself into every conflict I could and learning what does and doesn't work.
I thought they'd at least want to test their weapons in Ukraine
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post 1658221533 03-19-2022, 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted By Mr
10+ years. Xi is more cautious, patient and realistic than Putin. The Chinese will wait until their navy is so large that the US can't win a conventional war before striking.
They wouldn’t use Navy, it would be an air attack.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...-taiwan-2022-3
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post 1658221943 03-19-2022, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted By janglingjack
I thought they'd at least want to test their weapons in Ukraine
China has already been testing out their weapons in border skirmishes

post 1658221993 03-19-2022, 02:48 PM
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According to this Newsweeks article citing some Russian dude they gonna do it this fallhttps://www.newsweek.com/china-plann...claims-1688449
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post 1658222013 03-19-2022, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted By janglingjack
I thought they'd at least want to test their weapons in Ukraine
You don't think they testing them on their own people
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