https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ing-in-the-u-s

Dallas Fed Just called it.

Just lol if your dumb enough to think that the fed isn't in on this and lol if you think housing will forever be some hot overpriced unaffordable commodity, Maybe in NYC and San Fran and London, but elsewhere in the US???? phucking please your dreaming.

Pegged

Tell me you’re a rentcel without telling me you’re a rentcel

paywall

Perpetual cope.

you're never gonna reach these people op lmao

they think assets are some magical form of security that can never become inflated or decrease in price

They quote "fundamentals" like a parrot irrelevant of application, purpose, or impact.

My buddy and his wife just bought a house in my neighborhood about a week ago.......Paid $250k for it....built in '78, 2,550 sq ft, not renovated AT ALL (needs a full reno, probably $80-$90k worth) has been empty for a year. Literally a 4 minute walk from my house. They plan to live in it while they re-do one room at a time.

We bought in mid 2020.....FULLY renovated in 2019, same size lot, 2,470 sq ft, built in '88......we paid $219k.
House across the street from us sold about 18 months ago....about the same size blah blah, was renovated in the early 00's.....sold for $235k

Just lol, they dun goofed. Great for my value....not so much for him.

Interest rates are going to increase another 6 more times this year alone, and there is still a housing shortage…

Sorry OP

Yes. And what happens when people stop buying because they can't afford the new payment from the interest rate hike?

Demand lowers, and the market falls as quick as it rose. Potential sellers panic and rush to list. Just as there is an apparent stratus of buyers waiting, the reduced amount of sells indicates a stratus of sellers waiting. That is a double edged sword. Demand/supply is simple but its effect on market pricing is exponential in both directions.

Rich people who keep getting richer will keep investing in real estate like they always have done

sure. Now look at that statement. "like they have always done." So what's different in 2020?

Who said any of that? Also, your solution to thosepotentialissues is to rent instead?

No idea brah, aware me? As far I know foreign investors continued to buy more and more property, at least in Europe

Wife's in real estate. She just spoke with an agent who, within 4 hours of posting a "notice to go to market" (not even officially listed yet), they got 4 sight unseen offers to purchase as-is (pending a 4 day home inspection period), $60k over alleged listing price.

Yeah I sold two properties and invested it in tech where it more than doubled, beyond the profit I would have seen from keeping a house and never realizing the gains. Surely you understand this. Everything is on fire, there was no reason not to liquidize assets and invest in order to remain mobile.Perfect. Think about what drives someone to do that, sheer panic. They could build and get exactly what they want with new everything, but they'd rather pay more for someone elses problems.

Idk, considering that the median household income is around 70k but the median home costs about 280k there's a ways to go before the price is above what lenders would consider safe. I believe that number is a ridiculously high one. It's 28% according to google which is crazy but that's like a 350k home on 70k gross.

I think that’s more of a prediction than a burst OP


I’m not saying it won’t or it will either. Maybe it will maybe it won’t. None of you are firmly entrenched in your opinion enough to go all in with your assets to make bank in your opinion which means deep down none of you actually know sh*t either.

But I can say that article is not a burst. It’s just a prediction.

I hope the market does cool by 2024 cause that’s when I’ll have enough to buy what I want one way or another.

If I overpay so be it. Life’s too short to sit here worrying about timing the market. Those of you so preoccupied with being right on this topic don’t even have the means to profit enough where being right will make you wealthy. It’s all cope to make you feel good that you got it right. That’s pathetic as f*ck lol

0:05
No Sign of Buyers' Strike in Housing: Altos Research CEO
Unmute
March 23: No Sign of Buyers' Strike in Housing: Altos Research CEO
ByAlexandre Tanzi
March 29, 2022, 12:13 PM EDT
Listen to this article
1:47
Share this article
Follow the authors
@atanzi
+ Get alerts forAlexandre Tanzi
U.S. home prices shows signs of becoming “unhinged from fundamentals” like they did in the housing bubble that preceded the 2008 crash, according to a blog post by the Dallas Federal Reserve bank.

“Our evidence points to abnormal U.S. housing market behavior for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s,” the Dallas Fed researchers wrote, citing data to measure “exuberance” on property markets that they’ve developed with scholars around the world as part of the International Housing Observatory.

Tipping Point?
U.S. housing market has been showing signs of exuberance


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Wealth for You
Enjoying Bloomberg Wealth?

To read more articles based on your personal financial goals, answer these 3 questions that will tailor your reading experience.

Get started
The measure suggests that “the U.S. housing market has been showing signs of exuberance for more than five consecutive quarters through third quarter 2021,” they wrote. The surge in home prices has continued since then.




The Dallas Fed researchers’ index is based on economic variables such as disposable income per-capita, housing rents and long-term interest rates. Their main takeaway is that since the beginning of 2020, price-to-rent ratios have soared beyond what those “fundamentals” alone can explain, and moved into the “exuberance” stage.

This Red-Hot Housing Market Is Betting Interest Rates Will Never Rise

They also found that the surge in disposable income due to pandemic-related fiscal and monetary stimulus, as well as reduced household consumption because of mobility restrictions, may have lessened its usefulness as a gauge -- suggesting that any bubble may be more advanced than those numbers suggest.


“The price-to-income ratio measure alone may produce overly conservative results when identifying housing market bubbles,” the researchers wrote.

The housing boom may have also been fueled by a fear-of-missing-out wave of exuberance among buyers, and more aggressive speculation by investors, they wrote in the blog post.

But the researchers said that stronger equity positions and household balance sheets suggest that any economic fallout from a home-price correction wouldn’t be on the scale of what the U.S. experienced in the 2007-2009 recession.

the fact that EVERYONE is calling it a bubble, proves that it isn't.

bubbles happen when EVERYONE says it isn't.

Don't worry OP, once the housing bubble bursts interest rates will be 9%.

You don't just have a rapid devaluation of assets when the inflation was caused by increased money supply.

Let's say there's another $10t in circulation now. Where does that money exist? It has to be in equities, in tangible assets, or in cash. And equities are far more of a bubble (via analytics) than housing right now.

The homes aren't worth twice as much. Your dollar is worth half.

“Housing bubble brewing” and “becoming detached from fundamentals” = watch out the house price inflation is just getting underwayTrue. The only small consolation is that your debt is denominated in nominal dollars, so (assuming your wage kept pace with inflation -probably it didn’t) your debt is also worth half.

Yeah believe it or not I actually managed to find some free real estate

Don't wanna see anyone lose money, but...yeah...I wish something would happen. As it stands now, decent homes in my area that used to go for $150-$200k just 2-3 years ago are all $250-$300k now... It's absolutely insane.

Lmao

Could someone please explain this chart to me



https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/2...on-the-market/

This is the rentcel version of the Rapture.

It’s March 58th

2 more weeks

Lol this aged well


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/...ecord-high-may

Inb4 cope

Average price for US homes hits record high in May despite rise in interest rates