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Forum » Houses now cheaper than a year ago
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Thread: Houses now cheaper than a year ago

post 1678391263 03-05-2023, 01:23 PM
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Houses now cheaper than a year ago

At this same time in 2022 and 2021 prices were starting to go up. Now they're not merely way below last summer's median peak. After a big drop in the second half of last year prices were still hanging on, still slightly higher YoY for these last few months. But the data shows now prices are down 3% YoY. $11K cheaper than this same time last year. The difference between last summer and this summer will be very big, much bigger than $11K.


https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/

That bright blue line is a little scary so far.
Prices normally go up a bit in the warmer months, but not like they did at record pace in 2021 and 2022. So odds are prices compared toright nowwill go up slightly in the coming spring and summer.But even if they do prices will be 8-10% lower than last summer.Yikes. The Federal Reserve said more rate hikes are coming to tame inflation, double yikes. And nomeaningfulrate cuts are coming even if we get a recession. What's a future 0.5% drop after it's been raised by 5% already? I'd bet by the end of the year prices will not only be below 2022 prices, they'll be below 2021 prices, which would erase most of the gains of the Covid bubble.

Please don't comment with 'rentcel' or 'mortgagecel' nonsense. The big picture is what effects this will have on the economy at large. With people refinancing homes they've had awhile at 3% mortgage rates, they aren't moving this year. Demand will be in the schitter. So even if supply is low, demand will be even worse the rest of this year.
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post 1678391463 03-05-2023, 01:26 PM
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Well that sucks for the people who bought in 21 & 22, their homes are worth much less now
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post 1678392623 03-05-2023, 01:54 PM
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Wait for the layoffs and then the dominos will fall.
post 1678392663 03-05-2023, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted By bluebeltATT⏩
Well that sucks for the people who bought in 21 & 22, their homes are worth much less now
Yes, it will be a mindfuk for them. In the most bubbled areas (Austin, LA, Boise, others) a lot of people will be underwater.

BRB buy a modest house for $650K in Austin and two years later it's worth only $400K, but still owe $480K on it. Ouch. BRB buy an average home in Seattle last year for an even $1 Million and by the end of 2023 it's worth $650K, still owe $800K on it. While I doubt it will be too many people, some are just going to turn in their keys.
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post 1678392963 03-05-2023, 02:02 PM
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Yet my landlord is raising rent by 10% when it’s time to renew the lease lmao.
post 1678392993 03-05-2023, 02:03 PM
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I read on a popular bodybuilding forum housing market was going to plummet in March of 22 so it's about time
post 1678393423 03-05-2023, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted By DeshaunWatson⏩
Wait for the layoffs and then the dominos will fall.
The second half of this year could be rough. I hope it isn't. I don't want to see massive layoffs just to make Biden look bad or "to own the libs." That's a psycho mentality some people have, until it's them who gets laid off and then it's not funny anymore. I have fingers crossed things stay flat or there's a mild recession. But yeah even a mild recession will push things down faster. It would be some schit if a recession causes all Covid bubble gains to be lost by some time in 2024.

Once prices hit bottom in the future I don't see them going up much for years afterward. Not only because people got burned, but because Baby Boomers are retiring at their peak now and for the next couple of years, with many looking to downsize.

I saw several articles praising here (Raleigh metro) as the #1 housing market in the country. Still lots of people migrating here. Calling it the best must be based off of old data because Redfin shows prices here are also 3% lower YoY. Maybe they mean just the city itself, not including the suburbs.
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post 1678394423 03-05-2023, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
The second half of this year could be rough. I hope it isn't. I don't want to see massive layoffs just to make Biden look bad or "to own the libs." That's a psycho mentality some people have, until it's them who gets laid off and then it's not funny anymore. I have fingers crossed things stay flat or there's a mild recession. But yeah even a mild recession will push things down faster. It would be some schit if a recession causes all Covid bubble gains to be lost by some time in 2024.

Once prices hit bottom in the future I don't see them going up much for years afterward. Not only because people got burned, but because Baby Boomers are retiring at their peak now and for the next couple of years, with many looking to downsize.

I saw several articles praising here (Raleigh metro) as the #1 housing market in the country. Still lots of people migrating here. Calling it the best must be based off of old data because Redfin shows prices here are also 3% lower YoY. Maybe they mean just the city itself, not including the suburbs.
We need a recession. Give us another rate hike.
post 1678394703 03-05-2023, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
The second half of this year could be rough. I hope it isn't. I don't want to see massive layoffs just to make Biden look bad or "to own the libs." That's a psycho mentality some people have, until it's them who gets laid off and then it's not funny anymore. I have fingers crossed things stay flat or there's a mild recession. But yeah even a mild recession will push things down faster. It would be some schit if a recession causes all Covid bubble gains to be lost by some time in 2024.

Once prices hit bottom in the future I don't see them going up much for years afterward. Not only because people got burned, but because Baby Boomers are retiring at their peak now and for the next couple of years, with many looking to downsize.

I saw several articles praising here (Raleigh metro) as the #1 housing market in the country. Still lots of people migrating here. Calling it the best must be based off of old data because Redfin shows prices here are also 3% lower YoY. Maybe they mean just the city itself, not including the suburbs.
The Biden admin fukked an already looming recession, instead of solving problems they are creating them.


The next 2 quarters is going to tell us more about the health of the economy


All of the spending is fukking everyone with inflation and there is no sign of stopping


They wanted Trump out so bad they were willing to become homeless in the process
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post 1678394753 03-05-2023, 02:34 PM
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How will it have an effect on "the economy at large", when houses bought in the past few years represent a mere fraction of property holdings? It's the behavior of large property holding groups/entities that has an effect on the "economy at large".
post 1678395733 03-05-2023, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted By bluebeltATT⏩
Well that sucks for the people who bought in 21 & 22, their homes are worth much less now
Only if they're short-sighted enough to be selling right now...
post 1678395803 03-05-2023, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Rent generally doesn't go down.

Just LOL @ rentcels srs.
Indeed. Funny how if mortgage rates rise, a landlord can simply pass this cost down to the person renting the property.

Seems like only the folks who bought recently and by some tragedy have to sell immediately who are at risk. Who are these mystical people though? Divorcecels?
post 1678395843 03-05-2023, 02:54 PM
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You see the interest rates for a 30 year mortgage nowadays? It's practically at 8%.

Probably gonna be higher in a week or two.

What a time to be alive......
post 1678396063 03-05-2023, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted By Dave22reborn⏩
You see the interest rates for a 30 year mortgage nowadays? It's practically at 8%.

Probably gonna be higher in a week or two.

What a time to be alive......
Mortgage rates have been historically low for the past 20 years or so...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
post 1678396163 03-05-2023, 03:00 PM
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I've been house shopping for my nephew this week and as far as I can tell, the house prices in the UK seem fairly static atm.

What isverynoticable is that there are a lot less houses on the market.
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post 1678396423 03-05-2023, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted By bluebeltATT⏩
The Biden admin fukked an already looming recession, instead of solving problems they are creating them.


The next 2 quarters is going to tell us more about the health of the economy


All of the spending is fukking everyone with inflation and there is no sign of stopping


They wanted Trump out so bad they were willing to become homeless in the process
lol, Biden has spent less than half of what Trump spent. But of course it's Biden's fault.

You good with Trump bullying the Fed to LOWER rates in 19? Think a 3% Fed rate might have helped inflation?

Moron
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post 1678396513 03-05-2023, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted By Dave22reborn⏩
You see the interest rates for a 30 year mortgage nowadays? It's practically at 8%.

Probably gonna be higher in a week or two.

What a time to be alive......
lmfao. "hur dur rates be > 0% hur dur da economics is phuk thank to do bad Biden hur dur"

Stupid muther****er. If Trump had kept his trap shut rates wouldn't have had to have been raised so much.

Idiot.
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post 1678396733 03-05-2023, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted By LogicalLifts⏩
How will it have an effect on "the economy at large", when houses bought in the past few years represent a mere fraction of property holdings? It's the behavior of large property holding groups/entities that has an effect on the "economy at large".
Velocity of money. Familiar with it? Nobody's buying in 2023 already and that's going to continue. Less purchases means less banks making money off of mortgages, which has a negative multiplier effect. Forget HELOCs, nobody's taking those out in a down market. There are tons of industries that rely on home purchases. From banking to insurance to home furnishings (gotta new stuff for the new house, right?), builders themselves who are likely to slow down and/or alternatively build more "missing middle" homes. That means less raw materials for homes that do get built. Home improvement spending slows, and so on.

In most places there's a bit of oversupply in apartments built in the last couple of years, with a massive wave of them coming online in the months ahead. That building is going to go down also.

Investors are already out now too, with their spending down almost in half compared to a year ago. Commercial real estate is in a similar boat. That's trouble as well, with multiplier effects.
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post 1678397093 03-05-2023, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted By nutsy54⏩
Mortgage rates have been historically low for the past 20 years or so...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
And now they're at 8%.
post 1678397203 03-05-2023, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted By Dave22reborn⏩
And now they're at 8%.
That' what happens when an oragne moron adds $8T to the debt, cuts taxes, and cries to the Fed to keep rates near 0.

This is what your stupid ass voted for.
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post 1678397233 03-05-2023, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted By nutsy54⏩
Mortgage rates have been historically low for the past 20 years or so...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
Hence much of the growth in prices. I forget the exact number, but the majority of 2021-22 buyers wouldn't qualify for the home they bought at today's rates. That tells you a lot about where the market would've been with higher rates and where it has to go.
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post 1678397263 03-05-2023, 03:20 PM
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Good. Home prices were rising pretty fast since 2020.
post 1678397333 03-05-2023, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
lmfao. "hur dur rates be > 0% hur dur da economics is phuk thank to do bad Biden hur dur"

Stupid muther****er. If Trump had kept his trap shut rates wouldn't have had to have been raised so much.

Idiot.
You're right, nothing is Biden's fault......ever.

Takes credit for lowering gas prices, but if they happen to go back up, and they probably will, well.of course it won't be his fault either......

Anyway, doesn't look like our educated youth are gonna be purchasing houses anytime soon, or a vehicle.
post 1678397433 03-05-2023, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
That' what happens when an oragne moron adds $8T to the debt, cuts taxes, and cries to the Fed to keep rates near 0.

This is what your stupid ass voted for.
Once again ****bag, "You" supported the lockdowns. You're the one that stayed indoors like a little bitch. You're the one that masked up outside.

Reap what you sow.
post 1678397513 03-05-2023, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted By Dave22reborn⏩
You're right, nothing is Biden's fault......ever.

Takes credit for lowering gas prices, but if they happen to go back up, and they probably will, well.of course it won't be his fault either......

Anyway, doesn't look like our educated youth are gonna be purchasing houses anytime soon, or a vehicle.
So your master's adding $8T to the debt, cutting taxes, and crying to keep rates near 0 didn't impact inflation boyo? Much like covid and GWBs 2nd term, the Rs left a chit show that the dems need to clean up.

Keep voting R boyo, surely there will be a great economy that follows...at some point...maybe...probably not...
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post 1678397573 03-05-2023, 03:24 PM
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I bet they're down bigly in shyt hole Baltimore.
post 1678397883 03-05-2023, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted By Polaris⏩
I bet they're down bigly in shyt hole Baltimore.
LOL. I can't afford to live in Baltimore with a nice view boyo. Are you under the assumption that all of Charm City is the few blocks that are warzones?

Probably best you stay away. But SOMEONE is driving prices up beyond what even Sillie can afford. Certainly ain't cultist.
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post 1678397983 03-05-2023, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
LOL. I can't afford to live in Baltimore with a nice view boyo. Are you under the assumption that all of Charm City is the few blocks that are warzones?

Probably best you stay away. But SOMEONE is driving prices up beyond what even Sillie can afford. Certainly ain't cultist.
Amazing schools in Baltimore.........
post 1678398053 03-05-2023, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
So your master's adding $8T to the debt, cutting taxes, and crying to keep rates near 0 didn't impact inflation boyo? Much like covid and GWBs 2nd term, the Rs left a chit show that the dems need to clean up.

Keep voting R boyo, surely there will be a great economy that follows...at some point...maybe...probably not...
You're right, never should have locked down. Right?

And why is there a mass exodus from blue states, to red states? Why can't you parasites just stay in your liberal utopias?
post 1678398453 03-05-2023, 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
Velocity of money. Familiar with it? Nobody's buying in 2023 already and that's going to continue. Less purchases means less banks making money off of mortgages, which has a negative multiplier effect. Forget HELOCs, nobody's taking those out in a down market. There are tons of industries that rely on home purchases. From banking to insurance to home furnishings (gotta new stuff for the new house, right?), builders themselves who are likely to slow down and/or alternatively build more "missing middle" homes. That means less raw materials for homes that do get built. Home improvement spending slows, and so on.

In most places there's a bit of oversupply in apartments built in the last couple of years, with a massive wave of them coming online in the months ahead. That building is going to go down also.

Investors are already out now too, with their spending down almost in half compared to a year ago. Commercial real estate is in a similar boat. That's trouble as well, with multiplier effects.
Houses are cheaper, and buying is down as rates are high(er). But you can't universalize for the entire country - it is uninformative as regards real estate markets. The fact is, many folks don't / won't need to sell, so dips in housing prices matter not at all.

Sometimes I wonder if the "housing market" crew here is really a construction firm employee who are used to having wildly lucrative contracts pouring out the wazoo, who panics any time the contract pace slows. *shrug*
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