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Forum » Why does the stock market keep going up?
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Thread: Why does the stock market keep going up?

post 1694812973 12-13-2023, 12:56 PM
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Why does the stock market keep going up?

I thought the big crash was supposed to happen already?
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post 1694813103 12-13-2023, 12:59 PM
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post 1694813403 12-13-2023, 01:05 PM
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It's Bidenomics bro.
post 1694813473 12-13-2023, 01:06 PM
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They keep printing money i guess
post 1694813693 12-13-2023, 01:11 PM
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Politicians signing bills that make their favorite stonks go way up.
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post 1694813763 12-13-2023, 01:13 PM
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retail investors have skewed the whole dynamic

the common person really only has access to 2 types of investments that can possible make them money - real estate and stock market

and even though everything sucks out there, economy-wise things arn't that bad because people have given up hope for the future and are living for the present .... eventually though that has to catch up and then **** is really going to hit the fan
Booo
post 1694813833 12-13-2023, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted By Finitude⏩
They keep printing money i guess
Just going up to match inflation. All that money Biden is printing to pay off upper middle class student loans (buy votes) has to be reflected somewhere. As the money printer goes into high gear so does the stock market. The stocks are up because the purchase power of the dollar is in the toilet. So in reality they haven't changed at all. It's just gas and food have went up 66% so the companies selling gas and food are worth more.
post 1694813863 12-13-2023, 01:15 PM
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people must have tons of excess cash to blow. gotta put it somewhere
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post 1694814073 12-13-2023, 01:18 PM
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why are we told people are struggling yet it cost so much to buy a car and restaurants/roads are packed out with people? i stood in line an hour last night to do a $40 carriage ride with my woman
post 1694814203 12-13-2023, 01:20 PM
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its just rich people moving money around and giving shiit fake value

none of its real
post 1694814593 12-13-2023, 01:27 PM
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It's completely fraudulent.

They have the cash power to make the price of anything exactly what they want it to be to the decimal cent.

The only real stock us your physical hard assets and consumable home goods
post 1694815053 12-13-2023, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted By eddiehaskell⏩
why are we told people are struggling yet it cost so much to buy a car and restaurants/roads are packed out with people? i stood in line an hour last night to do a $40 carriage ride with my woman
Record credit card debt
Student loans JUST started back up
Free child care money just ended
Covid rent assistance just ended

I think next year the plebs will actually be broke
post 1694815083 12-13-2023, 01:36 PM
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Inflation.

It’s designed to go up, just like your food and house went up over time because of money printing (aka inflation) stock market also goes up over time. It’s that simple. When money is printed everything costs more including the stocks.
post 1694815173 12-13-2023, 01:38 PM
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Right now looks like a melt up. Commodities like oil dropping in price despite OPEC cuts, along with dozens of other indicators show a recession is baked in. But it's not right around the corner, so plenty of investors are buying because in the short-term cheaper oil (and cheaper other energy) will drive short-term profits. But the longer term will show WHY oil prices have been dropping - less demand.

And welfare for the rich is guaranteed when the schit hits the fan. Even welfare for the middle class to some extent, especially in the housing market. A lot of the public knows bailout after bailout through debt will keep coming in various forms, which will create more opportunity and melt up for a small but significant number of investors.
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post 1694815273 12-13-2023, 01:39 PM
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What makes a stock go up exactly? You can say people buying it but doesn't that mean someone is selling it? It doesn't make sense. Seems to be completely fake to me.
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post 1694815923 12-13-2023, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted By eddiehaskell⏩
why are we told people are struggling yet it cost so much to buy a car and restaurants/roads are packed out with people? i stood in line an hour last night to do a $40 carriage ride with my woman
Overall there's a lot ofrevenge spendingin 2023, just as there was a lot of revenge travel this past summer. People were legally restricted and self imposed restrictions during the pandemic so now it's more "YOLO!!!" attitude.It's the same with Christmas decorations this year.More people are doing big displays than they have in decades, to compensate for the dour spirits of the last few holiday seasons. Revenge spending, revenge decorating.

The revenge spending on cars was 2022 to late spring 2023 and is definitely over. Similar will occur elsewhere in 2024.
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post 1694816133 12-13-2023, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted By SoutheastBeast1⏩
What makes a stock go up exactly? You can say people buying it but doesn't that mean someone is selling it? It doesn't make sense. Seems to be completely fake to me.
Earnings.


Let’s say there are 100 shares of a company called PineApple in total. Let’s say you bought 1 share, that makes you 1% owner, so then let’s say this company PineApple sells 1 pinephone for $100 to someone. Well, you get 1% of that. You get $1 if the company decided to give out dividend or to delist, pay you off and take the company private or something else. That’s like the most simplified way to explain the concept of it. The short term ups and downs in the market are caused by news, emotions of people and companies buying and selling trying to time the market.
post 1694845143 12-14-2023, 07:15 AM
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Earnings.


Let’s say there are 100 shares of a company called PineApple in total. Let’s say you bought 1 share, that makes you 1% owner, so then let’s say this company PineApple sells 1 pinephone for $100 to someone. Well, you get 1% of that. You get $1 if the company decided to give out dividend or to delist, pay you off and take the company private or something else. That’s like the most simplified way to explain the concept of it. The short term ups and downs in the market are caused by news, emotions of people and companies buying and selling trying to time the market.
That's not true. If it were that simple stocks would move solely on earnings cals but they never do. Everything is driven off of speculation but how does the stock move up or down when =someone is buying off the speculation it's going well.... in order to buy someone else is selling so it doesn't add up.

Stock market seems like a scam tbh but I guess so is valuing something as stupid as gold and silver like in the old days when you really think about it.
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post 1694845503 12-14-2023, 07:25 AM
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This rally looks fake and gay to me.

The stock market is pumping because long-term bonds are dropping like a rock. In 6 weeks, the US 10 year Treasury (kind of the proxy for long term debt costs... mortgage rates are based on this for example) went from yielding 5% to yielding 4%. It just fell off a fukking cliff.

Stocks work opposite to bond yields. If you could buy a Treasury bond that guaranteed 20% return a year for the next 30 years, you'd probably put your entire net worth into those and never buy a stock again. And if you had bonds paying 1% return a year for 30 years like during COVID, you'd never buy it because that return sucks dikk. So high-yielding bonds suck cash out of the stock market, and some of that money flows back in when bond yields drop.

Right now, bonds are dropping hard in expectation of a Fed pivot in early 2024, and stocks are repricing accordingly. What I don't get, is why people think the Fed funds rate is going to drop at all with CPI still at 4% (and on-the-ground inflation at like 10%-20%). I think hedge fund brahs are shooting their wad too early here.

Earnings still suck and the macro picture looks grim, so I don't have any hope of actual economic growth occurring. Like with the whole past decade, the stock market is solely watching the Fed.
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post 1694845543 12-14-2023, 07:25 AM
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Optimism because the FED kinda sorta said no more rate hikes after threatening rate hikes for the last 6 months. Glass half full investors see that as inflation has been slayed and the FED will release its "high interest rate" grip on the market. Glass half empty "gay bears" see this as the step before rate cuts, which historically ocurr due to something breaking followed by S and P dropping fast. We have been living in the year 2007 for the last 3 years now....no one knows anything except the investors have been crazy optimistic.
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post 1694845883 12-14-2023, 07:33 AM
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post 1694846723 12-14-2023, 07:54 AM
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So far this is the same pattern from previous economic cycles, the market peaks as rates are increased and then held to subdue an overheated economy

Historically the market has gone down when the rate cuts arrive because the economy needs stimulating back up
post 1694846813 12-14-2023, 07:58 AM
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The basics of how I look at it, there is competition for money investing between bonds and stocks. For the last few years due to high inflation bonds and the interest they have been paying kept rising higher for the last 3 years. Now bond prices and interest payments are going down. Investors, always looking to the future feel less money can be made investing into bonds. Now stocks look more attractive to buy.
post 1694846843 12-14-2023, 07:59 AM
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The market grows in line with GDP growth.
post 1694846953 12-14-2023, 08:01 AM
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Stock Markets always fo a "blow off top" before a crash. Althought it should have happened already, that blow off will likely happen sometime between now and the end of March.
post 1694847503 12-14-2023, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted By SoutheastBeast1⏩
What makes a stock go up exactly? You can say people buying it but doesn't that mean someone is selling it? It doesn't make sense. Seems to be completely fake to me.
Originally Posted By SoutheastBeast1⏩
That's not true. If it were that simple stocks would move solely on earnings cals but they never do. Everything is driven off of speculation but how does the stock move up or down when =someone is buying off the speculation it's going well.... in order to buy someone else is selling so it doesn't add up.

Stock market seems like a scam tbh but I guess so is valuing something as stupid as gold and silver like in the old days when you really think about it.
yes, for every buyer theres a seller if order for a sale to take place, but theres more to it than that.

the lowest price someones willing to sell for is the ask, and the highest price someones willing to pay is the bid. the bid and ask must meet for a sale to take place. for example bid 19 ask 20. if you want to buy you could place a buy order at 19, but you have to wait for one of the sellers (who are offering at 20) to lower their ask to 19 for the sale to happen. theres no guarantee that will happen. for a guaranteed buy, you have to buy the ask, which is 20. when there's lots of buyers, there's lots of people buying at the ask. in our example theres not an unlimited amount of shares at 20. there might only be 100 shares for sale at 20, then the next shares aren't for sale until 21, then more at 22 etc... so if people buy all the shares available at 20, that leaves the lowest available price at 21. there might only be 1000 shares available between 20 and 25. if you insisted on buying 1000 shares, you would buy all the inventory between 20 and 25, leaving the lowest ask remaining above 25. now the bid/ask spread is 19/25, and if there's still buying pressure the bid will increase towards 25.

if bb.com is selling protein for 50 and amazon is selling for 55, and someone buys out all of bb.com's stock at 50, the lowest price available is now 55

also, when there's lots of demand on the buy side, sellers will raise their offer to try to sell higher.

tldr: supply and demand. limited amount of shares available at any given price. just because a stock "price" is 20, doesn't mean there's unlimited amount at 20 to buy and sell.
post 1694847733 12-14-2023, 08:18 AM
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It doesn’t have to crash to reset the economy, they can go full retard and take our currency hyper.

(The economy does need a crash, we have not recapitalized consumers, the economy doesn’t produce enough capital to pay out to get spent to support itself. People are running on debt and propping up “systemically important players” It’s been a broken cycle since Covid handouts, and possibly actually should have crashed right at the start but we used handouts and QE instead.)

What I personally see is a rejection of sensible regulatory policy and fed actions, due to the fallout on the elite/blackrock/etc.. they aren’t throwing lehmans on the pyre this time around, they are going to hyper the supply and fuk everyone just so the people on top can stay there.
post 1694847853 12-14-2023, 08:21 AM
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Japan is selling bonds like no tomorrow, it's all an illusion.
#
post 1694848353 12-14-2023, 08:32 AM
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easiest way the rich elite programmers can finesse you without breaking a sweat

keep it looking like its always rising then BLAM some of you miscers are crying losing everything
post 1694848553 12-14-2023, 08:36 AM
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Originally Posted By eddiehaskell⏩
why are we told people are struggling yet it cost so much to buy a car and restaurants/roads are packed out with people? i stood in line an hour last night to do a $40 carriage ride with my woman
New vehicle sales up (In Cali) and holiday shopping up, I can only assume all of that is debt and some will possibly never get paid off. Market won't correct until the defaults start coming in.
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