These numbers are from Real Clear Politics. 2024 RCP has Comrade Kamala up 1.5% nationally in the polling average.

2016 and 2020 obviously ended up MUCH closer than the polls indicated on this day in history.

Dems need Kamala up 8%+ in polling averages to feel any sort of confidence. You can essentially take whatever Trump is polling at and add 3-4%. If he's down 1.5% he's likely up by 2-3%.

Additionally, he can lose the the national popular vote by 3-4% and still win. That means dems need consistent polling averages with Kamala up 8%+.

I agree it looks a lot better this time around

however you'd still prefer he'd be in the lead above the margin of error. I think there's a good chance there is another polling error in his favor, but you never know what will happen. Obama was underrated in 2012.

To have any faith that people are moving the right direction you'd want to see a pretty convincing Trump victory. I'm note sure another popular vote loss and narrow victory bodes well anything beyond the next 4 years of the future.

you have to view any trump victory in light of the nearly decade long campaign where they threw the kitchen sink at him from every conceivable angle 24/7. with anything resembling a fair shake from the media he's up by double digits -- well, he's actually in his final days of office because he easily wins in 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/har...ic-2024-08-19/

A rare glimpse of truth during election season

bump for the real data

This. I don’t feel any confidence with Trump behind. It’s entirely possible that he is being underestimated once again, but there’s also a chance he’s being overestimated in the polls. Every single election since 2021 has been a letdown for Republicans. GOP support was overstated in the Midterms and has continued to be in the local elections nationwide since. Trump’s support was also overestimated during the primary. Trump’s polling advantage before the Iowa Caucus was 34pts ahead. He ended up winning by 30pts. In New Hampshire he had a 20pt polling lead and only won by 11%. So there’s data not in his favor.

That being said, if the election were held today I would expect Trump to squeak out a razor thin victory. Probably losing Michigan and Wisconsin, but taking Pennsylvania by the skin of his nuts.

Either way, it’s a tossup election and it shouldn’t be. Kamala is the most unqualified, radical person to ever head a major party ticket. It’s fkin insane that the media is propping her up and getting away with it. I mean look at this chit…



Makes no sense. It’s a Psyop.

If you look at energy, enthusiasm, momentum and all of the small segments of people( women,gays,minority groups) it will be super close.

only a retard would vote for comrade kamala

Lol, he's also trying to get people to donate, so I'm not sure I can fully trust that. However what he's saying is likely true.

Just because something happened in 2022, means nothing for 2024. People were extremely happy with life in 2022, everyone's house values were going up. Wages rising, people flush with cash.

In 2024, a lot of people are broke. Home prices are dropping hard. Way more misery than in 2022.

In 2022, a luxury issue like Abortion could be afforded to be front and center in a polical campaign. Nowadays, the economy will be way more important.

I don’t remember that at all. Summer 2022 was when inflation peaked and Biden’s approval ratings hit record lows (later surpassed this year). Most people I know were struggling more in 2022 than today. Hence the red wave predictions.