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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1682305373 05-08-2023, 01:39 PM
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#3421
  1. 2020Wellness
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  1. 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Just discovered PFF which is a fund holding preferred shares yielding 6.4%. Pretty stout and primarily utilities, major banks, and industrials.
Long term it looks to be a losing fund. Nice dividend, but the chart doesn't look too pretty.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1682307243 05-08-2023, 02:22 PM
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#3422
  1. SipNPiz
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Wow PLTR up fat ah, if I didn’t sell for tax loss last year I’d still be down 60%+ lol
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1682307723 05-08-2023, 02:31 PM
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#3423
  1. taf1968
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PLTR reports 2nd consecutive profitable qtr and says it will be profitable every qtr this year.
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*

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post 1682311263 05-08-2023, 03:31 PM
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#3424
  1. Destor
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Wtf why didn't anyone mention PLTR was about to blast off
post 1682312783 05-08-2023, 03:55 PM
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#3425
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Wtf why didn't anyone mention PLTR was about to blast off
This. Why haven’t I heard about PLTR until today??
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1682336803 05-08-2023, 11:24 PM
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#3426
  1. Elias373
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Well, well, well, what do we have here?

Imagine if somebody had been telling you all about PLTR for the last 24 months.
post 1682341183 05-09-2023, 02:33 AM
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#3427
  1. MinisterOfLust
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Palantir moon landing is fake or real?
post 1682356143 05-09-2023, 09:07 AM
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#3428
  1. Carbonfibre
  2. Rubber Banding
  1. Carbonfibre
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Exciting isn't it? lol


This is what stock market was before Fed printer 2020.

None of this stuff here is tradable. Just trading sideways for 3 months on end. If you bought SPY shares Jan 1st...You would be today at exact same spot. (Stock pickers market atm, needed to chase AI from Jan otherwise you went no where)

Maybe tmmrw with CPI report can get some action.


Otherwise nothing burger.



For you PLTR traders there is try to force options squeeze so far not working.

They need to get PLTR above $10 to get anything decent going.
post 1682365353 05-09-2023, 11:43 AM
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#3429
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Long term it looks to be a losing fund. Nice dividend, but the chart doesn't look too pretty.
Yeah I looked and thought maybe the fund traded similar to bonds, but even pre2020 it was consistently dropping… I wonder why.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1682374373 05-09-2023, 01:50 PM
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#3430
  1. Carbonfibre
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UPST earnings today.

short interest is 40%

could get interesting over $18
post 1682378723 05-09-2023, 02:48 PM
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#3431
  1. Lefticle
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Making money hand over fist off UPST. Cot damn son.
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1682380173 05-09-2023, 03:11 PM
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#3432
  1. Carbonfibre
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UPST is not up due to amazing earnings.

Its up because of short interest. Very important to understand this.


AFRM and UPST earnings are similar.

One is down 8% (AFRM had tiny short interest) while other is getting squeezed due to 40% short interest.

I called out $18 because that is exact spot where options were sitting at that required hedging and could cause pump...well you got it.


I would bet that UPST gets faded once shorts exit or short from higher.

There is nothing bullish about having loss of $130 million while last year you made profit.

Nothing in earnings was good sadly.

post 1682387583 05-09-2023, 05:05 PM
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#3433
  1. Destor
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UPST was at $22 like three months ago
post 1682417753 05-10-2023, 06:43 AM
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#3434
  1. Abzu
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CPI comes in below expectations.

Now we pretend the fed pauses.

This could move us to 4200.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1682420433 05-10-2023, 07:49 AM
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#3435
  1. Destor
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Core CPI has barely budged since like December
post 1682422993 05-10-2023, 08:46 AM
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#3436
  1. Carbonfibre
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They setup big traps before the market opens.

Most retail traders can't trade futures / pre market.

Pump futures and this causes Fomo chase on open.

Than comes the fade / rug pull.

Bond morons are at it again today.

They pricing in rate cuts again.

You can't call for fed cuts when inflation is 0.4% mom


That is not sustainable.



FYI if you have about $10-20 million you can move the Fed fund rates via SOFR options.

Those bets happen every single day in sofr. So just something that is not understood here on this forum.


It would be the same bet if tmmrw you bought $10 million SPY $400 puts expiring end of May. You will move the market on that cause someone else has to warehouse that risk and the only way to do it is sell stock/equity to hedge that bet.
post 1682423293 05-10-2023, 08:53 AM
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#3437
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Wasnt there some news a while back saying the method for CPI calculation was changing? Find it hard to believe the number is actually coming down. Havent looked into it but seems fishy
Its not really coming down. M/M staying consistent. Y/Y only coming down because we had hyper inflation last year.

We are still probably going to hit 4.5% inflation this year.
mo e
post 1682423663 05-10-2023, 08:59 AM
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#3438
  1. Carbonfibre
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YoY is horrible metric and should not be given too much weight.

Just remember yoy looks at last 12 months. So every month you just move forward month.



You should pay attention to Month over Month.

Most important metric.

That is the metric that is not coming down 0.4% MoM is not good.



post 1682426623 05-10-2023, 09:57 AM
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#3439
  1. Destor
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Yeah annualized Core CPI is way above the target. If we continue moving at this pace, rate cuts should be coming sometime around September 2030


Headlines: INFLATION COMES IN BELOW EXPECTATIONS
post 1682426733 05-10-2023, 10:00 AM
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#3440
  1. 401Delta
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Its not really coming down. M/M staying consistent. Y/Y only coming down because we had hyper inflation last year.

We are still probably going to hit 4.5% inflation this year.
Zero.

*holds up white supremacist symbol*

Zero percent inflation.
post 1682427383 05-10-2023, 10:11 AM
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#3441
  1. Carbonfibre
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To correct the insane pump that Fed produced 2020-2022.

You would need to see 0% MoM reading or slightly negative prints.


Good luck with that.

Consumer is gonna keep ramming car payments no matter what cost / new iphones etc.


Fed can't stop people being stupid.


Question now becomes.

What else can the big whales break so they can force Fed to start cutting rates.

The forced bank run on regional banks didn't work.
post 1682432863 05-10-2023, 11:33 AM
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#3442
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
To correct the insane pump that Fed produced 2020-2022.

You would need to see 0% MoM reading or slightly negative prints.


Good luck with that.

Consumer is gonna keep ramming car payments no matter what cost / new iphones etc.


Fed can't stop people being stupid.


Question now becomes.

What else can the big whales break so they can force Fed to start cutting rates.

The forced bank run on regional banks didn't work.
It’s just a waiting game for student loan repayment to kick back on. I figure whatever the starting date is for student loan repayment +3 months will show cracks in consumer sentiment. Just enough time to drain remaining bank accounts, fire sell expensive toys, and start defaulting on $1,000+ vehicle payments.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1682433373 05-10-2023, 11:41 AM
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#3443
  1. Destor
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The big banks are reporting that savings rates are still way above pre-pandemic levels, even while all this is going on



Wage gains among the higher-income group have levelled off but continue among lower and middle-income earners. I don't think people have ever been so flush with cash tbh despite everything happening.
post 1682435343 05-10-2023, 12:08 PM
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#3444
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
The big banks are reporting that savings rates are still way above pre-pandemic levels, even while all this is going on

Wage gains among the higher-income group have levelled off but continue among lower and middle-income earners. I don't think people have ever been so flush with cash tbh despite everything happening.
Tbh I struggle to believe it. Most teachers aren’t really getting much for raises… nurses aren’t getting the massive $$$ they were a year ago and many hospitals aren’t in great places financially. Big grocers are getting their labor right. No more OT allowed and they just set the tone for shrinking bonuses going forward. Wags might be the last chain that has sign on bonuses for pharmacists. Oil field job market is somewhat tight down here at least. Real estate is locked up so agents/originators/title company employees gotta be sweating it at least a little. Microsoft froze their wages on all full time employees.

Can anyone think of an industry that is raising wages quickly??


@Tug I can’t even guess until the Supreme Court renders their decision. If no forgiveness is granted then expect a quick drop in markets. People struggling to pay $10,000-20,000 are the ones who dropped out and they’ll be the ones struggling to manage payments. They’ve all been living like their balances cleared already.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1682436483 05-10-2023, 12:24 PM
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#3445
  1. Carbonfibre
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I agree wages are not going up.

If you get hired now at higher wage you will not be getting raises for next 5 years as they blame inflation / rising costs etc.


Easiest solution for companies now is fire staff to protect shareholders.
post 1682438753 05-10-2023, 12:53 PM
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#3446
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I agree wages are not going up.

If you get hired now at higher wage you will not be getting raises for next 5 years as they blame inflation / rising costs etc.


Easiest solution for companies now is fire staff to protect shareholders.
They cannot blame inflation otherwise people will demand cost of living raises. They have to say “input costs are rising” ask me how I know LMAO
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1682438943 05-10-2023, 12:55 PM
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#3447
  1. Carbonfibre
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true good point.


as for consumer flush with cash.


does this look like it?

credit card debt to the moon

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG
post 1682448273 05-10-2023, 03:23 PM
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#3448
  1. _zman
  2. Trancebrah
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Tbh I struggle to believe it. Most teachers aren’t really getting much for raises… nurses aren’t getting the massive $$$ they were a year ago and many hospitals aren’t in great places financially. Big grocers are getting their labor right. No more OT allowed and they just set the tone for shrinking bonuses going forward. Wags might be the last chain that has sign on bonuses for pharmacists. Oil field job market is somewhat tight down here at least. Real estate is locked up so agents/originators/title company employees gotta be sweating it at least a little. Microsoft froze their wages on all full time employees.

Can anyone think of an industry that is raising wages quickly??


@Tug I can’t even guess until the Supreme Court renders their decision. If no forgiveness is granted then expect a quick drop in markets. People struggling to pay $10,000-20,000 are the ones who dropped out and they’ll be the ones struggling to manage payments. They’ve all been living like their balances cleared already.
Engineers I know continue to get raises.

I just got a 13% raise and equity bonus, but we're a smaller company. We have a hard time hiring and retaining clinical office staff. I see payroll and they're paid quite well. I just interviewed a CFO and he turned down the role, probably due to higher pay somewhere else. Pretty limited position and we're struggling to find a good one.

Just depends what skills are in demand. Prior company I worked for had to bring in clinical contractors with insane wages. Like 10x what the local population is paid, which is bottom dollar. My sister now travels for her role that started at 15/hr, now I think she makes 150-200k couple years later.

And I don't believe for a second that savings are up.

I thought I had read an article about this, found it:https://www.wsj.com/articles/once-fl...ry-11675691637
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post 1682450643 05-10-2023, 04:05 PM
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#3449
  1. Destor
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  1. Destor
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There are huge unions and such where we just now see agreements in place or things are even still being negotiated, I've brought my anecdotal insight from major unions we employ in my work (construction = massive industry)

In Canada, look at the CRA strike for a new contract on 35,000 people and just received +12.6% compounded over four years. There's a ton of this stuff happening behind the scenes and across major unions that employ swaths of the workforce.


At the same time, tech is suffering (higher earners) and layoffs / freezes are happening there but we have yet even seen the influx from other parts of the economy.


In terms of the savings rate, I think the important detail might be what it looked like pre-pandemic. It might have come down a lot from the high and be relatively low but still way beyond what was seen before 2019, I don't really know those numbers to speak to them.


Do the big banking bois have incentive to portray these numbers as better than they are? They make more money from higher interest rates right, so maybe, but you'd assume their lending activity has also decreased and that they'd want the money printers running at full bore thus would have incentive to portray the numbers as badly as possible.
post 1682485853 05-11-2023, 06:43 AM
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#3450
  1. SouthDakotaBrah
  2. SUPERNOVA
  1. SouthDakotaBrah
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Engineers I know continue to get raises.

I just got a 13% raise and equity bonus, but we're a smaller company. We have a hard time hiring and retaining clinical office staff. I see payroll and they're paid quite well. I just interviewed a CFO and he turned down the role, probably due to higher pay somewhere else. Pretty limited position and we're struggling to find a good one.
This is true. Since 2020, my previous employer (huge infrastructure engineering firm) has been giving out 10-12% annual raises to retain talent. Renewable energy is doing very well right now, too, in terms of compensation. Tech is being hit hard, but still depends on what exact area of tech you are in... if you are in cloud/BI/AI/ML you are probably doing well still
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