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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1687763403 08-04-2023, 10:01 AM
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#3961
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Anyone got in when I called the bottom on amzn in 2022? Been banging on my calls especially today. I might scale out a bit around $147, but this thing will be at aths in 2024
Yep

AMZN finally taking off again, congrats to the people who got in!
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1687771373 08-04-2023, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted By lunchbox12⏩
anyone notice the "soft landing" crew is starting to take a victory lap?we are about to get blindsided with something
This is literally the stock market during any upturn, which is the majority of the time lol. There's always potential negatives, but unless you can predict the timing and magnitude of it, it's a pointless endeavor because the markets might not price in the bad news for months. Most of the stuff that causes markets to meaningfully crash/correct are black swan events.

You can argue there's signs that bad news is coming, but it's very hard to get the timing correct. Lots of people have been calling for recession this year, including myself, but I'd have missed out on a massive rally if I were fully cash. I'm cautious and do think the market is getting a bit exuberant, but it's typically better to be invested than on the sidelines. I only adjust my dry powder slightly when I think risk-reward is changing
post 1687782153 08-04-2023, 02:51 PM
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#3963
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
This is literally the stock market during any upturn, which is the majority of the time lol. There's always potential negatives, but unless you can predict the timing and magnitude of it, it's a pointless endeavor because the markets might not price in the bad news for months. Most of the stuff that causes markets to meaningfully crash/correct are black swan events.

You can argue there's signs that bad news is coming, but it's very hard to get the timing correct. Lots of people have been calling for recession this year, including myself, but I'd have missed out on a massive rally if I were fully cash. I'm cautious and do think the market is getting a bit exuberant, but it's typically better to be invested than on the sidelines. I only adjust my dry powder slightly when I think risk-reward is changing
There are always more people forward looking 10-40 year horizons than people ready to cash out hence markets always go up even when things aren’t golden. The big question remains what happens when the biggest generation by population all retire and try to cash out/shift more toward bonds. Inflation will continue to force them to remain in equity markets longer than typical investor wisdom previously dictated but it will be a factor going forward.

Fnma closing arguments wrapping up Monday/Tuesday it appears. Argument pretty similar to hung jury trial of 2022, but expert testimony was more convincing I thought. If preferred shareholders get a win out of this I’m hoping it’ll continue to cascade the push for the release of Fannie Mae and Freddie to public markets. What it looks like is still up in the air, but depending what they do to common shareholders there is a chance commons go up 20-50x and preferred shares could still go 10-12x. It is my opinion that the worst outcome for preferred is they convert to common shares at value of $25/share so no dividends are ever paid.

Cano popped like 10% today which I’m hoping means buyout rumor coming later this weekend or Monday. They have earnings coming Wednesday so hopefully they have at worst news of selling their non-core clinics. They are still scaling their clinic volume hard so I’m hoping for solid results and further cleansing of their board/management. I’ve got 100 $2c for September so a buyout rumor for $4-5 would be slick.

Payo is looking like an absolute snack <$5. Their cash position is massive and with short term yields as they are their interest income should be large. I have no clue how their share price is this low, but their warrants should definitely be valued higher than 60 cents each. Expiration is June 2026 so plenty of time to pop.
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post 1687788703 08-04-2023, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
There are always more people forward looking 10-40 year horizons than people ready to cash out hence markets always go up even when things aren’t golden.The big question remains what happens when the biggest generation by population all retire and try to cash out/shift more toward bonds. Inflation will continue to force them to remain in equity markets longer than typical investor wisdom previously dictated but it will be a factor going forward.
I think the problem though is that even right now, bonds are 4-5ish percent, depending on the maturity range. That's still well below equities on average and not enough to move the needle. To me, it really comes down to inflation. Currently, bonds are still a negative real yield (yes, I know real inflations are X, but I and most I know with differing baskets of goods from me always feel it's underreported) and it's usually not a good idea to hold onto them. If yields go up, their value will fall and if they go down, it'll be even more impetus to stay long equities, even if stocks sink initially from bad economy. And yes, I know you're saying that you think people will likely stay in equities, so I'm not saying all that to seem like I'm nitpicking your comment.

As far as what happens when they die off, I think people underestimate how big this wealth transfer will be. Right now, all these Zoomers/Millennials think the rich are screwing everyone over, blah blah. But soon, they will start becoming beneficiaries of this "tax loophole" and will have lots of money from the all the asset inflation happening, even after taxes. Based on my read of people, most folks live for today and forget about tomorrow, so I'm anticipating another boom as people idiotically spend their inheritance. What happens then is scary. I don't see my or Gen Z being very productive or innovative and we'll now have burnt through most of the consumption we can with the newfound "wealth" but will no longer have new consoomers to buy assets, especially if automation continues. Hopefully by then, I'll be set for life, in safe bonds, and out on a beach in a cheap country, but who really knows?

That's my unsolicited prediction about the next 30 years and I'm sticking by it till the facts change lol.
post 1687807663 08-04-2023, 11:38 PM
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in the span of a 2 weeks I was at all time high and now completely near cost basis
post 1687814543 08-05-2023, 04:54 AM
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Anyone got in when I called the bottom on amzn in 2022? Been banging on my calls especially today. I might scale out a bit around $147, but this thing will be at aths in 2024
Average cost/share 94 for me - bought ~70% of what I own between 10/22 and 1/23. Technically could be a lower average, but I had/have enough faith in AMZN long-term that I was fine with buying any time it was below ~110/share.
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post 1687816843 08-05-2023, 06:43 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
There are always more people forward looking 10-40 year horizons than people ready to cash out hence markets always go up even when things aren’t golden. The big question remains what happens when the biggest generation by population all retire and try to cash out/shift more toward bonds. Inflation will continue to force them to remain in equity markets longer than typical investor wisdom previously dictated but it will be a factor going forward.

Fnma closing arguments wrapping up Monday/Tuesday it appears. Argument pretty similar to hung jury trial of 2022, but expert testimony was more convincing I thought. If preferred shareholders get a win out of this I’m hoping it’ll continue to cascade the push for the release of Fannie Mae and Freddie to public markets. What it looks like is still up in the air, but depending what they do to common shareholders there is a chance commons go up 20-50x and preferred shares could still go 10-12x. It is my opinion that the worst outcome for preferred is they convert to common shares at value of $25/share so no dividends are ever paid.

Cano popped like 10% today which I’m hoping means buyout rumor coming later this weekend or Monday. They have earnings coming Wednesday so hopefully they have at worst news of selling their non-core clinics. They are still scaling their clinic volume hard so I’m hoping for solid results and further cleansing of their board/management. I’ve got 100 $2c for September so a buyout rumor for $4-5 would be slick.

Payo is looking like an absolute snack <$5. Their cash position is massive and with short term yields as they are their interest income should be large. I have no clue how their share price is this low, but their warrants should definitely be valued higher than 60 cents each. Expiration is June 2026 so plenty of time to pop.
Completely agree here. Any thoughts on the upcoming recession. It's certain that it will occur, the question is how severe will it be?

Inflation will keep rebounding/going up because of wage inflation and how strong the consumer is. Every company's earnings report showed increase in profits but almost all of it is erased due to increase in employee costs. Coporate margins are just being erased. We really won't see inflation go back down to 2% until unemployment starts sky rocketing and consumer finally stops spending money. Factoring in how student loan payments will begin next month couple with the highest consumer debt this country has ever seen, I really can't see any other outcome besides a big correction/recession after the 2024 election.
post 1687838223 08-05-2023, 02:44 PM
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#3968
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
There are always more people forward looking 10-40 year horizons than people ready to cash out hence markets always go up even when things aren’t golden. The big question remains what happens when the biggest generation by population all retire and try to cash out/shift more toward bonds. Inflation will continue to force them to remain in equity markets longer than typical investor wisdom previously dictated but it will be a factor going forward.

Fnma closing arguments wrapping up Monday/Tuesday it appears. Argument pretty similar to hung jury trial of 2022, but expert testimony was more convincing I thought. If preferred shareholders get a win out of this I’m hoping it’ll continue to cascade the push for the release of Fannie Mae and Freddie to public markets. What it looks like is still up in the air, but depending what they do to common shareholders there is a chance commons go up 20-50x and preferred shares could still go 10-12x. It is my opinion that the worst outcome for preferred is they convert to common shares at value of $25/share so no dividends are ever paid.

Cano popped like 10% today which I’m hoping means buyout rumor coming later this weekend or Monday. They have earnings coming Wednesday so hopefully they have at worst news of selling their non-core clinics. They are still scaling their clinic volume hard so I’m hoping for solid results and further cleansing of their board/management. I’ve got 100 $2c for September so a buyout rumor for $4-5 would be slick.

Payo is looking like an absolute snack <$5. Their cash position is massive and with short term yields as they are their interest income should be large. I have no clue how their share price is this low, but their warrants should definitely be valued higher than 60 cents each. Expiration is June 2026 so plenty of time to pop.
Speaking of the older generation possibly exiting to bonds...imagine a scenario where this starts to occur and millennials and gen-z continue to fail to invest in retirement accounts, and the market recedes and never recovers.
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post 1687843233 08-05-2023, 04:38 PM
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#3969
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Speaking of the older generation possibly exiting to bonds...imagine a scenario where this starts to occur and millennials and gen-z continue to fail to invest in retirement accounts, and the market recedes and never recovers.
I think this pressure, combined with student loan repayment are going to suck enough money out of the economy/equity that we may not even need another rate hike.

Also all those tech jobs got axed but it seems like the trickle down problems haven’t came about. Did everyone really land on their feet?
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post 1687847083 08-05-2023, 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Speaking of the older generation possibly exiting to bonds...imagine a scenario where this starts to occur and millennials and gen-z continue to fail to invest in retirement accounts, and the market recedes and never recovers.
Strong possibility. See the Lost Decade(s) in Japan. Same thing could happen in the states.
post 1687932813 08-07-2023, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I think this pressure, combined with student loan repayment are going to suck enough money out of the economy/equity that we may not even need another rate hike.

Also all those tech jobs got axed but it seems like the trickle down problems haven’t came about. Did everyone really land on their feet?
Yep, agreed. Also, return to office for a lot of tech companies can hurt wages. BRB pack up everything and move, then can't do remote. Either return to office or find lower paying alternative to stay remote. WSJ had an article on this for Farmer's insurance. New CEO fuked a lot of people. I guess there could be plenty of remote tech jobs, but can't be as lucrative as the big bois, me thinks.
Originally Posted By looxmatter⏩
Strong possibility. See the Lost Decade(s) in Japan. Same thing could happen in the states.
Yep, that's what I was thinking. I'll stick to my DCA plan. I toned down 401k contributions and plan to invest in a higher mortgage rate and upgrade my life now. Did the calculations, net worth with conservative appreciation ended up being the same outcome.
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post 1687935713 08-07-2023, 11:11 AM
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#3972
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Yep, agreed. Also, return to office for a lot of tech companies can hurt wages. BRB pack up everything and move, then can't do remote. Either return to office or find lower paying alternative to stay remote. WSJ had an article on this for Farmer's insurance. New CEO fuked a lot of people. I guess there could be plenty of remote tech jobs, but can't be as lucrative as the big bois, me thinks.



Yep, that's what I was thinking. I'll stick to my DCA plan. I toned down 401k contributions and plan to invest in a higher mortgage rate and upgrade my life now. Did the calculations, net worth with conservative appreciation ended up being the same outcome.
Good for you! Home upgrade is always nice even though it hurts to do short term. I member pre2020 thinking I was buying the fukkin peak of housing market with a 4.5% 30 year mortgage. Then things went psycho and I refi’d like everyone else not long after and got <3% and even though I had less than 5% down somehow value increased enough to drop the PMI shortly thereafter. House stuff always works out in the long run and it’s nice knowing you’ll own your home sooner than later.
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post 1687937053 08-07-2023, 11:34 AM
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#3973
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Good for you! Home upgrade is always nice even though it hurts to do short term. I member pre2020 thinking I was buying the fukkin peak of housing market with a 4.5% 30 year mortgage. Then things went psycho and I refi’d like everyone else not long after and got <3% and even though I had less than 5% down somehow value increased enough to drop the PMI shortly thereafter. House stuff always works out in the long run and it’s nice knowing you’ll own your home sooner than later.
Agreed. I managed a 2.25% rate, and now I have good equity. If somehow the fed rate decreases soon, then I know I can buy and refinance in 2-3 years. 7% to 2.25% is like $750-1k difference monthly depending on how much I borrow. I finally get some success in my life and this is the new reality. Sad.

But thanks bro. I'll do some research, but I think equity up to certain dollar amount is non-taxable. I could stack that cash at 4.3% and make the insane mortgage payment until rates go down I suppose. It would offset the difference quite a bit.
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post 1687940273 08-07-2023, 12:27 PM
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Just sold off the rest of my AMZN calls for 2025. I believe we could see a pull back here to the $116 level before the inv. head and shoulder plays out and takes it to $220.
post 1687943803 08-07-2023, 01:24 PM
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#3975
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Damn, been a minute since I've posted here. Took what I thought was a permanent hiatus from the misc.

Bros, Docs, and Upst reporting earnings on Tuesday.. not looking to make any plays on Bros/Docs, but might buy 100 shares of Upst which would let me break even at $110, and a $60 put as well to hedge.

Pretty chitty that so many things recovered bigtime the past few months but Bros & Docs barely moved. FFUUU

When will SABS announce their success. Still holding my warrants, at the very least if it flops this year I can offset my gains with that loss.
Been DCAing into BROS since '21 - for me it is a long-term play. I like what they do and how they do it. We'll see where it gets me 10 or 20 years from now lol.
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post 1687950293 08-07-2023, 03:27 PM
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#3976
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Just sold off the rest of my AMZN calls for 2025. I believe we could see a pull back here to the $116 level before the inv. head and shoulder plays out and takes it to $220.
What about baba? Think it’s worth trying to re-enter long calls?
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post 1687965223 08-07-2023, 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Just sold off the rest of my AMZN calls for 2025. I believe we could see a pull back here to the $116 level before the inv. head and shoulder plays out and takes it to $220.
Amazon is an easy double from here, it may take a few months or a year or two at the most, there might be short term ups and downs, but it’s an easy double, head and shoulders is a shampoo, while Amazon is an incredible business which recently spent some money creating a deeper moat and now Ready for another leg up.
post 1687965543 08-07-2023, 08:57 PM
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Amazon is an easy double from here, it may take a few months or a year or two at the most, there might be short term ups and downs, but it’s an easy double, head and shoulders is a shampoo, while Amazon is an incredible business which recently spent some money creating a deeper moat and now Ready for another leg up.
How the hell do you have 200K reps lol?
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post 1687980863 08-08-2023, 07:41 AM
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#3979
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post 1687981393 08-08-2023, 07:50 AM
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Amazon is an easy double from here, it may take a few months or a year or two at the most, there might be short term ups and downs, but it’s an easy double, head and shoulders is a shampoo, while Amazon is an incredible business which recently spent some money creating a deeper moat and now Ready for another leg up.
I agree! But as a trader, I had to sell yesterday since it's at resistance and I can reenter my calls again for a cheaper price. I sold at $142, it's now at $139
post 1687982083 08-08-2023, 08:02 AM
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Payo with the solid earnings beat

It blows my mind they are growing 40%, profitable, and have a sales to ev ratio of 2.5x and still half their ipo value. I’ll be keen to see what they paid for their China business they just bought and their AI database company they bought to help underwrite. Their $5.5B in customer funds certainly makes a big impact since they said on that alone they anticipate $200m in profits from interest they collect.
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post 1687992013 08-08-2023, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
I agree! But as a trader, I had to sell yesterday since it's at resistance and I can reenter my calls again for a cheaper price. I sold at $142, it's now at $139
Seems to me the best option would have been to buy more calls near the bottom and then sell them in blocks at your price targets, like $142, if you think it's going over $200 then you should still have active options to sell when it gets there.
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post 1687995883 08-08-2023, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Seems to me the best option would have been to buy more calls near the bottom and then sell them in blocks at your price targets, like $142, if you think it's going over $200 then you should still have active options to sell when it gets there.
I'll reenter the calls when it dips back into the $120s.
post 1687998463 08-08-2023, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
How the hell do you have 200K reps lol?
What color is your Bugatti?
post 1688002153 08-08-2023, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Decided to play UPST earnings. Bought myself two $49 puts @ 8/18 expiry and 100 shares @ $50. Factoring in 40% IV crush my puts should print at $44 at expiry, and if that happens I still bring my DCA down from $163 to $107 (potentially even lower while profiting on the way down).. now if it moons, shares just have to break $60 for me to profit. Should be interesting to see what happens.
This is so confusing… if you think it’s going down why buy more shares? If you think it’s going up why buy puts?

Why wouldn’t you sell the puts at $45-50 strike and if it drops take assignment and if it goes up you take the profits from selling the contract
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post 1688004803 08-08-2023, 02:25 PM
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#3986
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Profit both ways

If it goes down -> I lose $100 per $1 it goes down from my shares. When my puts print, I will gain $160-200 per $1 it goes down. I am lowering my cost basis by buying the shares, and also by profiting from the puts.

If it goes up -> I take a loss on the puts, and profit on the way up.


The issue with selling puts is that I'm making very limited profit and exposing myself to a lot of downside. What if it tanks to $20 and I have to take assignment at $45 strike. Terrible.


Only way this fails is if it magically stays rangebound to where my puts don't print until after expiry, and then drops. Or if I've somehow massively underestimated IV crush.
Tug. You already bought the shares. You should have NOT bought the shares at $50 and just sold a CSP at $45. Then your price average would be less than $45 instead of losing the entire amount of buying 100 shares at $50.

Regardless your puts are definitely ITM now so congrats lmao- and as you stated IV crush will hurt your puts but when it moves hard like this it shouldn’t matter much just slight drop on contract profits.
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post 1688006533 08-08-2023, 02:52 PM
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#3987
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
If I sold CSP at $45 -> yes my price average might have been $40 after the premium. However, that's 30-60 day expiry. By then, what if the stock plummets to $25 for example. I'm paying $40 for shares worth $25. On top of that, no potential for upside..

If the stock drops enough by 8/18, I will completely offset the loss on the $50 shares by the puts. Needs to hit $35 for that to happen. Breakeven after IV crush is $45 but I'm not even sure that'll work, seems to be recovering lmao.


This would've been a better play if market didn't price in earnings the past week.
Contracts for shares move exactly the same as shares except when you sell them you benefit from iv crush. If shares go to $25 whether you have shares or contracts they both reflect the underlying regardless. Not sure why you’d want them to drop to $35 you have a bunch of shares. If you wanted that why didn’t you sell shares? Regardless with your current setup with a bunch of shares and 2 puts your max loss is probably close to $45-46 depending on what you paid for your puts.
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post 1688007983 08-08-2023, 03:18 PM
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#3988
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Get in on BABA. It's going to shoot up 30% one of these days
post 1688008403 08-08-2023, 03:25 PM
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#3989
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Get in on BABA. It's going to shoot up 30% one of these days
Positions?

I haven’t actually looked at calls but I think that is gonna be the ticket. It just comes down to how deep otm and how long it’ll take.

Also fuark boyos I’m nervous Af about cano earnings tomorrow. It’s definitely an all or nothing either they are getting bought out OR they are closing clinics…
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post 1688013603 08-08-2023, 04:55 PM
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#3990
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Decided to play UPST earnings. Bought myself two $49 puts @ 8/18 expiry and 100 shares @ $50. Factoring in 40% IV crush my puts should print at $44 at expiry, and if that happens I still bring my DCA down from $163 to $107 (potentially even lower while profiting on the way down).. now if it moons, shares just have to break $60 for me to profit. Should be interesting to see what happens.
Are you trying to stay long your position in $UPST or what's going on here? The buying puts make sense if you think it'll short-term fall on earnings, but you're OK with staying long overall. That just means you're collecting free "premium" by selling your puts and not exercising them to stay long. You buying 100 shares though at $50 is where you're losing me. I get that it drops your cost basis, but you're still deep in the red and now you're going to be underwater even on this lot based on where it's sitting AH as of this writing. Yeah, you'll make some money on your long puts, but you're basically breaking even (at best) on the shares you bought and are exposing yourself to another $5000 of downside risk if the stock goes even further down.

The only way this makes sense is if you think it'll go back above $100+ and you're just hedging this thing taking off after reporting earnings by buying a bit more at what you think is a low price. Even then, I'd have just gone long OTM calls
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