back in green today overall

so far I am not beating my FA's recommended portfolio (simulator up 4% april) IWF is up 15.5% since april and most of his other fund recommendations were winners

I'm at 0% starting in July

Will be interesting if that saving 1% per year fee and going mostly VOO will payoff

1% fee is quite high when you consider compounding isn't it?

Took a bit of a risk today. Covered my EGY $5cc for $16. Sold em for $50 for Jan. They are down 20% today because Gabon just had a coup and they have a decent amount of offshore oil assets in Gabon. Operations currently normal but who knows what happens. Sold 10 $4 CSP for Jan for $50 each as well. I think concerns are overblown and operations will continue as always. Government never let’s go of its cash cow.

Very high. That's why I hate my 401k. Nearly everything is 1% or higher. Hate it.

That’s pretty brutal. They just gave us a SPY index that has something insane like 0.05 or something that I moved mine too. Otherwise it was retirement date funds that were similar to the 1%. Index fund + world fund + bond fund

I'm trying to take over the whole program at work and implement Vanguard.

Fukin CEO resistance though. He knows or is related to the current advisor, so IDK how I'm going to overcome that. CFO told me.

I got a new CFO starting this month, maybe he'll help me out. Last CFO picked his battles and said fuk it and left, cuz of dumchit CEO.

Uh ya, big time. That results in 100,000+ reduction in gains by retirement time. 1% ER is horrible.

That is more then enough reason to leave your current company and look for a pay increase along with a better retirement account. Thankfully my 401k has a ridiculously low fee otherwise iq ould of left my current job AGES ago!

Apologies for the double post but wanted to give my thoughts as to why the market soared yesterday:

What caused the pumped yesterday was a job report (JOLTS) saying that the alount of job openings is under 9 million lowest since March 2021. The market saw this as a positive that the high interest rates are finally having an effect on the job market thinking that QE (quantitative easing) may be coming here shortly. This cause the dollar (DXY) to shoot straight down along with bond yields. Which caused the algo traders and institutions to start buying equities like SPY, etc that caused a huge pump.

If data keeps pouring in like this we will be soaring to new ATH.

Call me crazy but I’m going to be buying some SPY calls with strike of 500$ expiring end of the year and SPY calls with strike if 585$ expiring March/June. Call me crazy but I think we have a huge melt up before the big crash here.

huge over time

Much of this is just the ebb and flow between bonds and equities with people trying to maximize their return while flipping allocation between them

They gave me generous equity and I bought equity too. Would far outpace any corporate job and most private equity companies I think. We're on a rampage in our market. We've been doubling in size every year. So it is, what it is. Just hoping to improve it.

Vanguard and Blackrock are the matrix

You are pouring your money into the Gay agenda

"Promote trans or we'll sell crush your stock lol"

#ResistTheMatrix

p.s. I would never commit suicide

If there's a way to stop companies worth $10+ trillion and their agendas, I'm all ears. I think there's some things you just can't change.

In certain Vanguard index funds, you can proxy vote by the way.

Absolish them and have the lazy asses do their own investing. It's simple, buy PLTR = Profit.

I've been trying to get some learning done and getting more interested by the stock market and wanted to run down my notes to see if I am understanding the bond market correctly. Any additional information/resources would be beneficial.

2 year bond yield = a pulse on the federal reserve and interest rates hike
10 year = gold standard - used for evaluation on equities and by banks - Commercial & Credit card rates
30 year = mortgage rates

Increase in 30 year bond yield means stocks and equities for home builders going down (similar case for 10 year bond yield)

The longer the duration the longer the yield! How it's supposed to work in a healthy economy ( 2 yr = 2%, 10 yr = 4%, 30 yr = 6%)
What happens when the opposite happens? Well, why would I hold a 30 year bond when a 2 year bond is paying me more (consumer perspective) - 2 yr bonds become more attractive.

BUT from a banker's perspective, when they think an recession is coming, they start dumping the shorter end bonds because of the short time frame of a end of a recession and lock in profits for longer terms (short timeframe = depression/recession). This causes a inversion. Action reflects a lack of confidence in the US economy in the short run.

Peak steepening is bad for economy - If yield curve is inverting means economy is doing good and the fed will keep raising interest rates (economy too hot).
BUT when a yield curve starts steepening that marks the beginning of the weakening of the economy. Labor market getting weaker, real damage in the economy, etc.


Any thoughts on this? Am I understanding this correctly?

There is a lot to consider when you look at bonds. I’ll type more when I have access to a keyboard, but I’ll add its interesting to look at the relationship between fed rate and the 10 year yield. I feel like it accurately tells you which part of the cycle you are in from a macroeconomic prospective.

1st position started in TLT at $95.10. Position size is 10% of overall position I want. Will look to buy more if it drops closer to $94 or possibly in the 93s. Yield is still 1% lower than SGOV 5.3-5.4%. But obviously I’m anticipating yields getting pushed down when government decides to hold rates steady and a possible flight to safety.

Bought puts on SPY at the morning after DXY broke my key level of resistance of 103.7 and then bounce off of the same level as support.

I know SPY and others would go down with the DXY going up but can someone explain why this happened?

This play made me a 20% scalp just not sure why the DXY ended up moving so high? Any news?

Don't have 50 posts so i can't embed but here's a screenshot of my trading set up/chart.

https: //imgur. com/X83Eb2x

In for this. I want to learn more about bonds but have 0 macro knowledge to forecast rates.

Also, what are peoples' thots on commodities/precious metals besides oil? I've been buying oil hand over fist because I think this decade will see:

1. The dollar weaken relative to other currencies
2. Oil supply will be constrained for at least another 2-3 years
3. Oil wells won't provide as much oil in the permain as we're used to
4. Oil demand won't decrease due to emerging markets and because green revolution is nonsensical at the moment

I'm curious if anyone tracks other markets though in gold, copper, etc. and/or knows sources that talk about supply/demand dynamics there. I think there could be an opportunity in these markets if my Stagflation thesis pans out

I follow a lot of commodities but couldn't speak to the supply side of them, however you're reiterating most of my reasons for going all in on oil

Green transition hype hit its peak during the pandemic, but I feel like people are still far too optimistic about it. We'll be using tons of oil for decades to come, it's very difficult to bring new projects online in developed parts of the world, and high oil prices will likely be necessary to force people out of combustion and towards electrification.

This idea that we'll transition energy sources in a world awash with cheap oil just doesn't make sense to me, free markets don't work that way and we can only kick the can down the road for so long with tax incentives and subsidies

I'm bullish on commodities after this crash. After every single crash a new sector of the economy leads the market.

Dot com bubble hits, what is the new bull run of after the dot com bubble? value stocks and oil lead bull run.

2008 crash - Oil went down and tech takes the lead for bull cycle.

AI = Bubble. In 1-2-3 years when the bubble bursts tech stocks won't lead the new bull cycle but commodities will. It always rotates.

If someone can embed this image I'd greatly appreciate it (remove spacs): https :// imgur . com/LSOMN5A

I personally think we have a bull run up (SPY to 550/600) by the end of the year, then a deflationary bust in 2024/2025 depending on if/or when something blows up and the presidential election. And then for the next decade commodities will 10x (gold up to 20,000, etc).

The super cycle is right head of us!

For NVidia stock holders please watch his video and b careful:


https: //www . youtube . com/watch?v=K6xALgeaSZM

$MDT may be worth a look
(heart monitors and pacemakers for jabcels)

anyone here have money in the aply, tsly, etc...? seems sketchy

Do not let your hearts be troubled. Trust in God; trust also in me.

What a big week/month for the economy. If any data shows up that inflation is rebounding this entire market could start dipping fast. I have a few connections that work on wall street/banks and I am getting conflicting data. I had a prediction of a big melt up by the end of the year (SPY going to 550$ to 600$) but we'll see what happens. everything will be data dependent.

Stay safe out there folks!

One thing is for sure, PLTR will be prepared for it

I doubt it boyo but we'll see.

Super easy play at open: Quick scalp for buying SPY puts at open.

DXY bounced off of 104.555 meaning there would be a sell off in equities. Easy bread and butter read.