Just received this today, interesting way for a bank to extend credit



Actually really good rates

4.99% 3 month
5.99% 6 month
6.99% 12 month

Credit line is at 11.19%

Not that I need that, but that is a good deal. Has anyone ever refinanced student loans? Curious what I can do for the GF.

Considering how much cheaper it is than an unsecured credit line much less credit card interest rates, banks here seem to be trying to open up credit availability

Not too sure about refinancing student loans myself

I don't understand these markets anymore. Inflation/PPI are not trending in the right direction, but we're still up somehow. I'm still confident we'll see some long-term devaluation of money. Whenever something breaks, Fed will just come in and save the world by sending us a bunch of dollars from the sky. Moreover, our fiscal spending by both parties is outrageous and we're not going to be able to pay it off ever without cutting taxes (lol) or entitlements (major LOL at that happening). Therefore, the only option is slowly but surely inflate the debt away.

At this point, I'm just indexing and will buy oil/gold on dips. I'm done trying to predict any more stonks till the market starts caring about fundamentals again

Markets can stay irrational for long periods of time, but the corrections always do end up arriving. It’s never straight up or straight down. We’ve seen a lot of government intervention but in every instance they are now backed into a corner where their help is no longer possible. Now gas prices are soaring and there isn’t a full SPR to tap. Credit crunch looming, but we are still insanely deep on the Fed’s balance sheet and they have been unable to run it down in a smooth curve. The federal government is still running an insane deficit and at this point we are lucky to keep it “as is”. Only thing left in the bag of tricks is cutting rates to 0 or trying to go negative. I think markets price in forever government intervention but it is possible at some point they are gonna say sorry we gotta face the music this time.

Something fun I was going to look into later is that many regional banks used to have lots of preferred shares of either FNMA or FMCC and those holdings were considered T1 capital. So when they went bust it was incredibly painful for banks who were stuck using TARP funds. I was curious if these regionals are still holding some of these positions and if releasing the 2 would bolster their balance sheets and possibly help in part to fix some of the banking problems that small to mid size banks are facing. In addition to the massive pile of cash the treasury could pull in exercising their warrants.

The most bullish chart out there, citrus barons are raking it in rn

It was obvious that the market maker was pumping the market to get a TON of options to expire out of the money. Notice where the current price of SPY and QQQ are located? Right after all the big volume and open interest contracts are below.






Also should be worth noting Stock market does NOT correlate to the economy. It starts to correlate when the biggest lagging indicator starts to rise and that is unemployment. Consumer indexes, PPI, inflation reports, etc. are all pointing to something negative but market keeps going up. Market is completely irrational and always has been which has caused some INSANE bubbles like the dotcom bubble where companies were trading with P/E of over 65 and people wee still buying at the top.

Just keep an eye on unemployment. When unemployment starts creeping up that is when the market will start behaving correctly and accordingly.



Can someone please embed the imagines for me please.

I just don't see how that's possible tbqh re: bolded. At least not in the US where you have a very finite term in which you run and/or get re-elected. The reason even conservatives spend like crazy is because you can't have a chit economy and have your party get elected, which in turn means you're essentially giving up your power. Not that I'm advocating for this, since it has other much worse negative repercussions IMO, but if you had longer terms for Presidents/people in power, they might have slightly more incentive to do what's right long-term than maximize short-term happiness.

There's just no way the donor class will allow tax hikes and there's no way the poor will tolerate a cut to entitlement spending. Suggesting either would be political suicide for the respective parties. That's why all we really can do is watch our $$'s purchasing power evaporate away slowly while the Fed just has to prevent hyperinflation from breaking out. A slow burn of 3-4% YoY inflation (inc food and energy, not the bullchit metric JPow uses) will eventually be more tolerated than 10% inflation, followed by bust, ad-nauseum. To me, the solution is to hold hard assets, such as commodities, precious metal, and real estate since those tend to hold onto their purchasing power moreso than fiat will. Also, owning the largest companies who have less debt to rollover and the most pricing power will eventually work out, even if there's a reset to valuations.

I get that markets are irrational forever, but I'm just amazed at how short-lived that flight to reasonability was last year. I thought the correction in tech was the turning point for value to start mattering. But within a span of 16 months, the market suddenly forgot the COVID lessons in overvaluation and is just shouting "AI" at the top of their lungs to justify any valuation all over again. I can't predict when it'll fall apart, so instead of complaining, I'm just allocating any new capital primarily to MM and maybe only 50% to S&P, which is not aggressive at all for my age group. I'll only buy if I see something that's potentially a screaming buy. Right now, that list for me is:

1. Any oil stonk
2. Miners (anyone have ideas for good miners - not just gold but renewable plays like copper/steel)
3. $CROX (lol - but seriously, check their growth vs their valuation. It's worth at least $150 unless you don't think HeyDude/Crocs will still be a thing for more than 2 years).

Good to note that Quad witching occurs once every quarter, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

Fed tomorrow. Oil meaningfully over $90/barrel, core CPI was slightly higher than expected, Canadian jump 0.7 meaningfully higher than 0.5% increase expectation, and auto union isn’t budging on 40% raise over 3 years. We hiking tomorrow or staying at 5.5? Everything till today said we chilling with the possibility of more. Now it seems like there is a little more uncertainty.

thoughts on a margin loan to make an investment in self storage? it is through a private company. the loan would be 40% of my NW and my only debt

What kind of rate are they offering you on the loan? ROI?

11% interest for a margin loan. I'm looking into lines of credit back by stocks but fidelity does not offer that I am aware of.

8% quarterly distributions. investment is estimated to be 30% IRR. 3-5 year hold

I wouldn’t do it but that’s just me, 40% of NW on a leveraged bet doesn’t sit well with me.

Be careful with loans like that especially if they have margin requirements, but it can be smart. I took out a $30k retirement loan back when COVID hit and threw it all into oil, and that worked out VERY well.


For the FOMC, I can see the Fed holding rates but not sure if another 0.25 matters aside from sending a message. The dot plot will likely matter a lot here, I think rates will stay higher for a lot longer than the market has currently accepted.

Fricken needs to go back to 145+ plssssssssssssss

RIP potential brokerage funding. Need a new roof. Ugh.

Did it spring a leak?

Lulz it ain’t cheap. Even when I had to do mine I debated renting a trailer and just doing the dam thing myself.

Hawkish hold? Dot plot updated, forecast for rate cuts next year went down from 4 to 2

Still feels too optimistic based on how things are going

Everyone may be talking doom and gloom, but the numbers are still solid. Inflation is gonna pop again thanks to energy pricing, strong employment, and wage growth. They are going to have to keep inflation from rising meaningfully because as seen before the rebound can be worse than initial rise and once it starts spiraling stopping it takes a tremendous shock.

Definitely, that would be my view as well

Just a small, slow leak. Deteriorating. Apparently it's an '09 roof if I recall when i bought it in '11. Surprised it's already done in 14 years. Might get a 2nd opinion and do some minor repairs. I'd like to sell in a year or two and get to the mountains for my next home.I did one with my Dad at 13. Must be mostly material cost, but I forget.

This is the same as my view:

1. Energy prices aren't going to decrease anytime soon

2. Labor will still be in short supply and will get worse slowly over time as the Boomers retire

3. Despite those headwinds, demand/excess speculation is starting to dry up. People are feeling the pinch and are starting to trade down/cutting back spending on frivolous items. Credit markets are tightening, which will put the kibosh on small business growth

There will be some push-and-pull between these forces, but unless there's a massive liquidity crisis via something like CRE, it makes sense the Fed will raise one more time (to crush demand for energy a bit) and then hold steady at a higher rate for a long time. The markets are stupid and still don't understand the Fed won't pivot until something materially breaks. My guess is we chop around in the low 4000s for a while. I just don't think unemployment will ever look bad because of the fundamental shortage of labor in numerous industries.

I'm just over here tryna speculate on where TLT hits rock bottom. I'm about to jump my holdings up from 20% of full position to about 50% in the next couple days if nothing dramatic happens.

https://en.macromicro.me/collections...ury-bonds-rate

Yep agreed. This FOMC meeting was a HUGE turning point. First time over the past few years that Powell finally admitted that the soft landing was NOT the baseline and even pointed to unemployment rising. that's what caused a huge sell off in the market.

We will as soon as tech stops being in-favor. If you look at the S&P, almost all of the performance has been driven by a few tech stonks that scream "AI" at the top of their lungs. Rest of the market is virtually flat to negative. The S&P right now is, I think, 30-40% Mag 7 in market cap. Whenever people realize AI won't lead to infinite profits and will only provide some marginal cost savings/productivity gains for a while until the tech fully develops, look out below.

Weekly reminder that CarbonCuck cannot be trusted.

He supports Trudeau, he supports Biden, he supports the destruction of the United States.

Mass unchecked illegal immigration will destroy this country.

Some of you voted for this too!! If you did, I hope you suffer for the rest of your miserable life.

Biden's America

I see resident trailer trashed popped buy to tell us about his white monster, scratch off, and natty light bargain buys at his local 7-11. Nice.


For everyone else that actually invests I did buy more tlt at 90.9 but kept tranche size the same as first buy cuz I’m scurred. So only 40% of overall position bought instead of 65%. Crazy that on the first $10,000 buy at around 94 I’m down a little over $300. Should be a decent long term buy. Interest earned is higher than the loans that would otherwise be getting paid with said funds.

Love me a good red day, hopefully more to come!