Tough to say where and when correction is starting. I’ve been trying to time closely correlating with the bond chart I posted a few pages back. 30 year bonds are close to hitting peak im presuming until fed initiates their last hike assuming they actually do. Everyone keeps saying long term bonds can keep mooning but sooner or later everyone is going to panic and hop into longer dated bonds and drive down yield before the market has enetered a technical recession. This is all just my working hypothesis so I couldn’t be totally wrong that no one will see the 4.7% yield as attractive and their assumption would be inflation stays higher longer and equity is the preferred asset to prevent loss of purchasing power combined with lack of fed buying as they continue to pretend their balance sheet runoff is still a thing.

The fed is taking some major losses after turning over some big profits to the treasury in years past. I still haven’t looked through banks to see which are struggling the most with liquidity issues but it’s going to get scary for some of them again if 30 year heads to 5%.
Canada might be having a Lehman moment in the coming years as rates go up. Destor was saying 30 year fixed isn’t a thing for most people and that it’s usually adjustable after 5 years. So anyone whose rate expires is in for some major pain as rates go from <3 to 6-7 or even 8%. I’d be interested to hear from our resident Canucks if this is a growing concern over there or if I’m missing something.

I bought some more fnma commons at $0.60 yesterday. I’ve got 5,000 and plan on getting to 50,000 if they drop to $0.40 again assuming no bad news drops. Government needs to get that ball rolling before their warrants expire in 2028. Im guessing if no news comes it will drop back into my buy range for full position.

Edit: holy fuk @oil gains today wtf. Glad I unhedged my oil position. It’s primed to pop I imagine.

WBA CONTINUES to make new lows fukking loving it fam. They will just keep making new lows over and over. Their vaccine market share is about to plummet as other players make big pushes to get vaccines in arms and deprive cvs/wba of their cash cow. CVS will get theirs no matter what but wba is getting hammered. Their primary care isn’t going to be profitable for a year or 2 yet and they massively overpaid for their clinics.

RAD closing at minimum 25% of their locations and creditors are going to be stuck holding the bag of whatever remains. Retail pharmacy is going to continue a massive consolidation trend including the cominbation of Albertsons/Kroger and once there are only 3-4 major players suddenly the kents known as PBMs will be stomped out and contracts will finally pay pharmacies fairly for services rendered.

It could go down 20% for me and I'd continue to DCA just like I do in my other accounts. And neither of us know what the market is going to do so I can't give you advice on the the cash portion. If you don't have a better utilization for what you're putting in, then I'd just keep putting it in. And depending on your state you'd have tax deductions and credits for 529s. Have you looked into that as well? 17 years is a pretty long horizon and timing the market doesn't usually work out so great. Most of us thought we'd be in a recession right now providing a juicy time to buy. I don't regret having cash standing by, but I could have averaged down more than I did too. I just found a compromise I could live with.

Fewer moves are better IMO, every additional move introduces risk and an opportunity to do something wrong. I ended up selling a bit way back when and then buying back in lower, but only because nothing else seemed worth buying.

Wiser to keep your positions and average down with additional money when the time is right rather than liquidating an existing position with the goal of buying back in at a lower entry point

Sold one $80 TLT CSP for $98 for Jan 24 strike. I’ll fuking buy that bish if they are willing to pay 5.25% interest. I’ll take early assignment if it gets remotely close. I should sell an $85 call too. I’ve got 150 shares at $93 average ayy lmao

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cvs-apolo...080852122.htmlAyyy lmao. Conditions gotta be absolutely awful if they managed to get the most timid group of professionals to walk out not once but TWICE.

lol if you're not buying up PLTR stock over food and shelter

cheers to my fellow Oil barons

Portfolio at ATHs even though stock prices are still down from the peak because dividends

I'm intrigued. You mind expanding on the pharmacy piece a bit more? Been looking into the space and trying to understand the lay of the land

long time no post.

no longer can day trade (all the fun is gone for me / different better job but more srs, so now basically glorified shiiit swing trader)

this is statistically worst performing month of trade year / sell was expected.

what you should be looking for next week and push toward year end is some sort of rally. (just based on purely on extreme oversold market conditions purely technical rally bounce if there is one)

can it rally with 10 year yield at 4.5%+ (difficult to answer --- bond market has gone crazy) I think yield move is over done to extreme.

did inflation bottom with CL now moving toward $100 (maybe)

if fed being forced to do another hike would not be good for equities. as of this second fed plans on just staying at current fund rate till deep into 2024.



here is line in sand (over/under line)

sp 500 cannot go under 4200 this week / next week at any point otherwise year end rally in doubt

if sp 500 can stay above that than I am looking to swing long.



good luck.



keep in mind when everyone is panicking .... well you know that famous line..


check here if you are long term investor

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Why do you say that ?

It's rippin

Wholesale gas still nose diving (currently futures are at $2.40) but it’s $5 at the pumps

Where are you located? It probably varies by PADD

Crude Oil Inventories

Gasoline Inventories

Distillate Inventories

Retail pharmacy is unprofitable as it currently stands with the various payer contracts from PBMs, state payers like medicaid, and federal government Medicare contracts. Retailers thought they could squeeze their employees to do more with less to make it profitable but even doing so the reimbursement rates have dropped faster than they can create efficiencies to reduce head counts in their stores. For grocery stores it isn’t such a big problem because pharmacy simply drives sales and creates a fukton of customer loyalty. For wba they get hit the hardest because CVS has one of the largest PBMs which is one of the leech entities trying to siphon money between people and the pharmacies doing the actual work. Right now there is a big push for all the pharmacies to try and vaccinate everyone because they are paid an administration fee of like $20/shot which is dam near the only thing they sell that is universally covered and profitable.

Independent Pharmacy as a whole are about to get clapped come Jan 1st as they get hit with 2023 clawbacks from Medicare and yet another reimbursement cut for 2024 as they will no longer be retroactively taking back money. All of this at once is really going to hurt their bottom line and I’ve had numerous friends discussing concern about ability to continue operations with this headwind.

Rad is going to more or less cease existing within a year or 2. Their losses are just mounting but given the above about vaccines they’ll likely close down in December or January after they’ve wrapped up vaccine season.


WBA is getting crushed because they dramatically overpaid for their primary care acquisition. For some reason they decided village MD was worth $5 billion even though they are losing millions and it doesn’t look likely to stop anytime soon. They settled their opioid lawsuits to the tune of like 5 billion over 15 year and their cash flow sucks because they’ve been paying every pharmacist they’ve hired in the last year between $75,000-50,000 to get them in the door. To fund all this self destruction wba has been selling their AmerisourceBergen stake down from close to I think 30% to 16% which will hurt their EPS too. Given the loss of all this cash flow they are going to be forced to cut their dividend soon since they won’t be able to service that 1.65B expenditure. I was a little early to the short WBA party but I’m glad it happened regardless.


Albertsons/Kroger about to merge depending on FTC decision this will lower competition somewhat and tie up 2 bigger players in the market. This happening will reduce nation wide chains from 6 to 4(loss of rad and ACI) and in my opinion give all the leverage back to Walmart/Kroger who are the best staffed out of the 4 and have a track record of saying fuk you give me a decent contract or we won’t accept your plan. Walmart is having a ton of success with implementing delivery and e-commerce platform but their PE is pretty fair at 30 already. Kr is at 20 and I think their bid for ACI is pretty solid despite the debt they’ll be taking on from them.

What people hodling ACI stock seem to have forgotten is the $32 or whatever they acquire at will have the price reduced by whatever they sell their stores to CS for. I think they end up getting their shares acquired around $23 or something after the 1 time $6.85 dividend + the 2 billion+ in storefront sales. FTC meeting in the next while will tell them if 400 is enough or if they’ll have to sell closer to 600. Either way this deal is probably going to get done.

On spread. This is the type of diligence we need ITT. Not a bunch of people screaming about how some Mag7 stock is going to $XX because of "da charts".

What do you think is the profitable trade here? I didn't realize pharmacy is so competitive. Did the Gov give any logic for why pharmacy compounding, etc. reimbursement rates are lowered? Also, pharmacists only making $75K??? That's insane! I remember when I was an undergrad, pharmacist was the hot job and becoming almost as competitive as dental school since people saw it as an easy way to a $150-200K life without the stress/malpractice nonsense of medicine. Has that all changed too?

Working in a pharmacy can be brutal right now since one pharmacist is expected to be running their pharmacy with no pharmacist overlap. They are offering $150k starting. Wags offering $75,000 2 year sign on and almost $170,000 for managers. Lots of places have tons of OT to the point you could make $300,000 if you didn’t like having days off. It’s not a bad gig if you can find stores with stable technician staffing which is improving with rising wages. Idk how to trade it stock wise other than avoiding cvs and wba

Dude, he’s a troll.

Fist bump to quarterly dividend time! Let the reinvestments flow through you.

Once easy Covid money was out the door it was gonna take awhile for other products to get to market. They are still working on the influenza treatment and Covid treatment is still viable even though it has been more or less shelved. This new funding is quite major and will hold off bankruptcy as their funding was running out as of this month. I’m still skeptical so I’m waiting for them to file their 8-k so I can read the terms. I can’t imagine the terms are super company friendly when everyone was aware of their dire straights.

Pacific Northwest USA

Speaking of pharmacy stuff, a large pharmacy union here in Oregon/Washington just went on strike yesterday, to address staffing and pay issues.

Yeah Kaiser. They just opened their network up to a bunch of competitors temporarily. Wonder why LOL. It’s a bunch of technical staff too I believe. X-ray techs, desk staff, and I think even janitors.

There’s a ton of union strikes getting ready to kick off. Obvious big 3 auto makers, union in Vegas resorts with like 60,000 people, and the Kaiser one too. Kaiser already opened their wallets for nurses and it’s gonna get crazy for everyone else now that they want theirs. $$$

This is the beginning of what an inflation cycle looks like. Wages hike and prices keep rising too. Powell gotta stomp it out now otherwise we gonna need 12% to kill it later.

Pretty sure in the Spring he mentioned they need to slow down jobs and pay is climbing too high. Talk about a conspiracy theory to keep working Americans as slaves to their wage.

Yeah, it's definitely contributing to inflation, but wages aren't keeping up for most people either. I wonder how much these wage changes would trickle throughout the economy...if cost of goods go up due to selective wage growth, wouldn't that make certain products unaffordable, therefore reducing demand too? There's so much that plays into it I guess. The union wage request by car manufacturers seems pretty ridiculously high, but I just like that it gets people talking about being underpaid relative to the cost of living.

I sort of agree to a point. Wage growth over a certain amount per year will cause further inflation. But unions requesting 40% raise over 3 years is kinda crazy assuming they are pointing at inflation as the reason they’ll deserve 40%.

At the end of the day though I think there should be a cap on CEO pay. Honestly I think they should cap it based on whatever the lowest paid associate is then add a fixed multiplier like 200x or something. C-Suite compensation has gotten more out of hand than anything. It does suck because a good ceo is like a good QB in the nfl and can generation billions and billions for the company and earn out their compensation by a long shot. and then there are the other 80% who basically do nothing or even make their respective companies worse off than they were before.

Yeah our C-suite pay needs to be reeled in. More often than not they don't bring that much for shareholders as people like to think. It's just gross how much some make. I've been at enough jobs to know C-suite gets in the way more than they provide value.

https://www.wsj.com/business/auto-ce...cks-up-cefc9a5
https://www.wtwco.com/en-sg/insights...-2020-analysis

CEOs make more in a day than typical US worker make annually:https://inequality.org/great-divide/...r-occupations/



From 2014, but you get the idea. Not sure where I saw the most recent chart.

I am deferring $66,000 into a sep IRA for 2023 what should In? Thoughts on some O? Why did it crash so hard

Real estate (at least where I live) has a negative ROI (if mortgaged) or terrible ROI if purchased with cash, maybe that’s why?

It’s way cheaper to rent than buy right now here on the west coast.

October lives up to its reputation as the worst and most volatile trading month in a year.

Bonds casually down 10% in the last month LOL. This is definitely gonna fuk stuff up- guesses on what is the first domino to fall?

AI stocks for sure