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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1691071863 10-03-2023, 01:09 PM
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#4261
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Originally Posted By greenleaf⏩
AI stocks for sure
Oh I mean big item to break. Either a huge legacy company with huge debt they can’t service at 7-10% interest or a pension liability due to terrible bond performance. Either of those or a bank that gets hammered on liquidity crisis and starts toppling others.
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post 1691073683 10-03-2023, 01:43 PM
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#4262
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https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ma...rates-10032023

Absolutely broooootal for upcoming first time home buyers
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post 1691074883 10-03-2023, 02:03 PM
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#4263
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Originally Posted By SaviorSelfJT⏩
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ma...rates-10032023

Absolutely broooootal for upcoming first time home buyers
Not just first time buyers, those are non existent unless wealthy parents help out. I’ve been wanting to upgrade but prices have only come down 10-15% from highs meanwhile rates are up 250%
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1691079163 10-03-2023, 03:42 PM
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#4264
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Bonds casually down 10% in the last month LOL. This is definitely gonna fuk stuff up- guesses on what is the first domino to fall?
Some of the talking heads are putting 13% 10-year yields out there over the next decade, Peter Schiff is posting on Twitter about prime going to 20%

US government spending is going ham and bond issuance along with it
post 1691079873 10-03-2023, 03:58 PM
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#4265
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Some of the talking heads are putting 13% 10-year yields out there over the next decade, Peter Schiff is posting on Twitter about prime going to 20%

US government spending is going ham and bond issuance along with it
Schiff is a fuking idiot. Anything he says do the opposite. Banks would be obliterated if yields go further than 6% on fed rate. I don’t think many people realize how much cheap money flooded banks and these regional banks couldn’t find anywhere to use these funds so they bought truckloads of long dated low interest mortgages/bonds that they are currently deeply underwater on. Most of these got bought 2020/2021 so it’s not like they can just wait 20-30 years for these to mature. They are likely to take losses at some point.
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post 1691080903 10-03-2023, 04:22 PM
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#4266
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Schiff is a fuking idiot. Anything he says do the opposite. Banks would be obliterated if yields go further than 6% on fed rate. I don’t think many people realize how much cheap money flooded banks and these regional banks couldn’t find anywhere to use these funds so they bought truckloads of long dated low interest mortgages/bonds that they are currently deeply underwater on. Most of these got bought 2020/2021 so it’s not like they can just wait 20-30 years for these to mature. They are likely to take losses at some point.
Schiff is one example from the far end but you have chit like Ackman and big hedge funds massively shorting treasuries with the huge issuance happening

I don't think the Fed target rate needs to move necessarily, IE Japan has the target rate set below 0% but bond yields continue moving up

US Govt needs to continue selling huge amounts of debt to fund the deficit

post 1691080923 10-03-2023, 04:22 PM
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Has anyone ever managed to get IPO allocation from a discount broker? I need to fill out an IPO investor profile for consideration by my broker. It's asking me how long do I plan to hold the IPO investment. Is it instant disqualification if I don't select anything less than "buy and hold" 5-10 years minimum?
post 1691084963 10-03-2023, 05:51 PM
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#4268
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Originally Posted By greenleaf⏩
Has anyone ever managed to get IPO allocation from a discount broker? I need to fill out an IPO investor profile for consideration by my broker. It's asking me how long do I plan to hold the IPO investment. Is it instant disqualification if I don't select anything less than "buy and hold" 5-10 years minimum?
I got ipo shares on robinhood, flipped them super quick for profit and got banned from IPOs for about 60-90 days. Worth it
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1691090663 10-03-2023, 07:46 PM
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Originally Posted By SaviorSelfJT⏩
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ma...rates-10032023

Absolutely broooootal for upcoming first time home buyers
Brutal indeed. My rate in my new house is 7.39%. Entire monthly payment is gonna be $4,700 lol
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Schiff is a fuking idiot. Anything he says do the opposite. Banks would be obliterated if yields go further than 6% on fed rate. I don’t think many people realize how much cheap money flooded banks and these regional banks couldn’t find anywhere to use these funds so they bought truckloads of long dated low interest mortgages/bonds that they are currently deeply underwater on. Most of these got bought 2020/2021 so it’s not like they can just wait 20-30 years for these to mature. They are likely to take losses at some point.
This.

He’s been wrong about literally everything for 15yrs straight at this point. Just absolutely fkn LOL @ Peter Schiff and schiffcels.
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post 1691102643 10-04-2023, 05:02 AM
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#4270
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
I got ipo shares on robinhood, flipped them super quick for profit and got banned from IPOs for about 60-90 days. Worth it
Did they tell you upfront you need to hold the IPO for a minimum of x number of days?
post 1691105193 10-04-2023, 06:39 AM
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#4271
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Spent this morning putting together an exhaustive list of reasons suggested ITT that the long end of the curve can't push up and pay people more to hold for 10-30 years than 2 years when the economy is running strong and US government debt issuance has never been crazier + shows no signs of abating:


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-lol @ Schiffcels
post 1691108063 10-04-2023, 08:06 AM
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#4272
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Spent this morning putting together an exhaustive list of reasons suggested ITT that the long end of the curve can't push up and pay people more to hold for 10-30 years than 2 years when the economy is running strong and US government debt issuance has never been crazier + shows no signs of abating:


-
-
-
-
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-lol @ Schiffcels
All he does is fear-monger and tell people to "BUY GOLD!" (he conveniently has a gold-selling company and you can buy it from him) despite gold being one of the worst long-term investments ever since they've been tracking it for over a century.

If anyone had 100% followed his advice for the past 15 years, they'd outrageously underperform the market and may as well had just kept it in a savings account.

Just absolutely LOL @ schiffcels
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1691111603 10-04-2023, 09:13 AM
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#4273
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Originally Posted By greenleaf⏩
Did they tell you upfront you need to hold the IPO for a minimum of x number of days?
They said I’d get restricted from future IPO but since I’m not an insider at the company offering the shares they physically cannot restrict the sale since it’s a free market.
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1691111983 10-04-2023, 09:19 AM
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#4274
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How much are you guys putting into your HSA (health savings account) each month?

apparently, you can use these funds to buy certain stocks/funds

i guess max is $3850 if youre single. always thought this was only used to buy medical related stuff but after 65 years of age...i guess it's like another 401k?
post 1691112403 10-04-2023, 09:26 AM
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#4275
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Originally Posted By greenleaf⏩
Has anyone ever managed to get IPO allocation from a discount broker? I need to fill out an IPO investor profile for consideration by my broker. It's asking me how long do I plan to hold the IPO investment. Is it instant disqualification if I don't select anything less than "buy and hold" 5-10 years minimum?
Inb4 you buy VFS but get locked in for 6 months.
post 1691113313 10-04-2023, 09:43 AM
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#4276
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Originally Posted By thatsnarf⏩
How much are you guys putting into your HSA (health savings account) each month?

apparently, you can use these funds to buy certain stocks/funds

i guess max is $3850 if youre single. always thought this was only used to buy medical related stuff but after 65 years of age...i guess it's like another 401k?
HSAs and insurance as well, wealthy people are playing all sorts of tax-deferring/avoiding games with this stuff
post 1691113903 10-04-2023, 09:54 AM
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#4277
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By thatsnarf⏩
How much are you guys putting into your HSA (health savings account) each month?

apparently, you can use these funds to buy certain stocks/funds

i guess max is $3850 if youre single. always thought this was only used to buy medical related stuff but after 65 years of age...i guess it's like another 401k?
I max the HSA before I even max the 401k. I’d rather have the tax-free $$$ for health stuff particularly when I know we are gonna use it. My wife has been popping out kiddos pretty regularly so needless to say we use it. I keep my max yearly out of pocket cash in the account and the rest invests.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1691118583 10-04-2023, 11:19 AM
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#4278
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So help me with a decision. I'm paying $100/month for insurance that I don't need. I'm a combat vet, VA covers everything I'd need. I pay $100/mo for access to the HSA via HDHP just for the tax savings. Still a good decision? With my contributions I'm spending $100 for the premium and $300ish to fund the HSA. That could be nearly $400 in the budget that I don't necessarily need to spend.

I have about $10k in the HSA. Been debating LASIK and a sauna, then stop contributing. It just seems to make more sense to keep contributing for the future though. Seems like a net benefit, although it's not huge.
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post 1691127903 10-04-2023, 02:05 PM
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#4279
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
So help me with a decision. I'm paying $100/month for insurance that I don't need. I'm a combat vet, VA covers everything I'd need. I pay $100/mo for access to the HSA via HDHP just for the tax savings. Still a good decision? With my contributions I'm spending $100 for the premium and $300ish to fund the HSA. That could be nearly $400 in the budget that I don't necessarily need to spend.

I have about $10k in the HSA. Been debating LASIK and a sauna, then stop contributing. It just seems to make more sense to keep contributing for the future though. Seems like a net benefit, although it's not huge.
You pretty much gotta keep catastrophic coverage for emergency room purposes right? Does your plan match your HSA contributions at all? I get a pretty hefty match because I didn’t want a high premium plan so I took a quite high deductible plan with a relatively low max out of pocket. It cut my premiums by half with this and they match the first 2,000 I contribute to my HSA. The money never goes away and at some point you’ll need it. It covers everything from prescriptions, eye glasses, dental visits, and OTC junk like tums. You can go to your eye doc and buy fancy sun glasses if you can’t think of anything else to buy.
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post 1691154423 10-05-2023, 04:14 AM
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Anybody here still holding their PLTR shares?

Also anybody selling Apple?
"It's hard to be yourself in a world filled with haters" - WiseOldApe.

"Why be anything when you can be an influencer?" - WiseOldApe.

"It's not about what is said - it's about who it is said by" - WiseOldApe.
post 1691177433 10-05-2023, 01:41 PM
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#4281
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Originally Posted By WiseOldApe⏩
Anybody here still holding their PLTR shares?

Also anybody selling Apple?
PLTR crew checking in
post 1691179573 10-05-2023, 02:43 PM
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#4282
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
You pretty much gotta keep catastrophic coverage for emergency room purposes right? Does your plan match your HSA contributions at all? I get a pretty hefty match because I didn’t want a high premium plan so I took a quite high deductible plan with a relatively low max out of pocket. It cut my premiums by half with this and they match the first 2,000 I contribute to my HSA. The money never goes away and at some point you’ll need it. It covers everything from prescriptions, eye glasses, dental visits, and OTC junk like tums. You can go to your eye doc and buy fancy sun glasses if you can’t think of anything else to buy.
An emergency room visit is like $50. If you can't get an appointment in a timely manner, you can see the ER for that. So no insurance seems to be needed unless the VA doesn't offer a particular service. I've had knee and shoulder surgery and I pay nothing, just the initial ER visit.

No HSA match at this company. I do use the HSA a lot for everything you've listed. I've used it to even buy ergonomic chairs or equipment and attach a letter from a doctor citing any medical conditions to cover my ass in an audit. The balance is invested in large and small cap investments when it's not needed, and I keep a small balance for these types of purchases.

It seems to be worth it for the 3x tax benefits and considering I really don't need insurance coverage through my job and hate paying the premium, it still seems to be worth it for investing.
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post 1691180863 10-05-2023, 03:16 PM
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#4283
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
An emergency room visit is like $50. If you can't get an appointment in a timely manner, you can see the ER for that. So no insurance seems to be needed unless the VA doesn't offer a particular service. I've had knee and shoulder surgery and I pay nothing, just the initial ER visit.

No HSA match at this company. I do use the HSA a lot for everything you've listed. I've used it to even buy ergonomic chairs or equipment and attach a letter from a doctor citing any medical conditions to cover my ass in an audit. The balance is invested in large and small cap investments when it's not needed, and I keep a small balance for these types of purchases.

It seems to be worth it for the 3x tax benefits and considering I really don't need insurance coverage through my job and hate paying the premium, it still seems to be worth it for investing.
That’s a tough one. Paying $100 to avoid paying 24%(or higher/lower depending on your tax bracket) probably isn’t worth it. Although if you have a family and can throw $9,000 in it probably would be.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1691195243 10-05-2023, 09:20 PM
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#4284
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Schiff is one example from the far end but you have chit like Ackman and big hedge funds massively shorting treasuries with the huge issuance happening

I don't think the Fed target rate needs to move necessarily, IE Japan has the target rate set below 0% but bond yields continue moving up

US Govt needs to continue selling huge amounts of debt to fund the deficit
Imo bigger institutions are gonna start doing the math that a 5% guaranteed yield is waaay better than a riskier 6-8% in equity index. Investors all moving the same direction at the same time should drop yields.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1691198713 10-05-2023, 11:17 PM
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#4285
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Imo bigger institutions are gonna start doing the math that a 5% guaranteed yield is waaay better than a riskier 6-8% in equity index. Investors all moving the same direction at the same time should drop yields.
That definitely sounds likely, there are some interesting dynamics in play right now with bonds at these levels
post 1691220643 10-06-2023, 11:45 AM
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#4286
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
That definitely sounds likely, there are some interesting dynamics in play right now with bonds at these levels
Bond market popped 2% and then almost entirely erased that move. Something is definitely up. 20 year hit 5.2% which is pretty nutty.

Fed meeting at the end of the month probably doesn’t move the needle much so idk what is up. I definitely didn’t see it moving this fast and furious lmao. I think I’m down 7% on my bond position.
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post 1691240413 10-06-2023, 07:34 PM
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#4287
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
here is line in sand (over/under line)

sp 500 cannot go under 4200 this week / next week at any point otherwise year end rally in doubt

if sp 500 can stay above that than I am looking to swing long.



good luck.



keep in mind when everyone is panicking .... well you know that famous line..


check here if you are long term investor

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
So yeah being shiit swinger I bought the dip cause we did not see under 4200.

This is my trade for year end rally.

Aim is that this goes SP 4500-4600ish Dec.
post 1691242143 10-06-2023, 08:14 PM
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#4288
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I remember praying for a christmas rally in 2021. Santa didn't even leave me coal, fukker took a chit in my stockings.Lost $35k unrealized gains that holiday season
You’re lucky srs
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1691246763 10-06-2023, 10:30 PM
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#4289
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I’m out during the next rally when I get to cost basis

Indexes and stock will bottom 6-12 months after the fed pivots. Inflation ain’t going unless they break something
post 1691247753 10-06-2023, 11:19 PM
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Originally Posted By Elias373⏩
PLTR crew checking in
are you holding or going to sell?
"It's hard to be yourself in a world filled with haters" - WiseOldApe.

"Why be anything when you can be an influencer?" - WiseOldApe.

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