Forum
»
**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
12-13-2023, 02:42 PM
-
#4501
- Destor
- Registered User
-
- Destor
- Registered User
- Join Date: Apr 2012
- Location: Alberta, Canada
- Age: 41
- Posts: 43,481
- Rep Power: 254906
-
-
So far this seems just like the previous cycles, the market peaked during the hold
Whether or not the market dives as rates are cut like the previous cycles of course remains to be seen
Whether or not the market dives as rates are cut like the previous cycles of course remains to be seen
12-13-2023, 03:05 PM
-
#4502
- Oceanofthc
- Registered User
-
- Oceanofthc
- Registered User
- Join Date: Oct 2023
- Age: 56
- Posts: 340
- Rep Power: 818
-
-
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
dude stop with this garbage bear narrative u keep trying to push.. ur making ppl lose money , and only a stupid / stubborn person cant see the economy is recovering now .. only stubborn people are still shorting... you are not stupid or stubborn, you are better then these brain dead bears.Don't worry this is blow off top phase here.
Everyone is high five mode atm.
Job is done inflation is solved.
Financial conditions are coming down. QT ending etc.
This is where two weeks in January all this flips on its head.
This is where market is now.
Everyone is high five mode atm.
Job is done inflation is solved.
Financial conditions are coming down. QT ending etc.
This is where two weeks in January all this flips on its head.
This is where market is now.
bro's , DXY has Daily Bearish divergence, its gonna DROP like a ROCK, DXY is DONE, finito, curtains closing
12-13-2023, 03:22 PM
-
#4503
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
Originally Posted By Oceanofthc⏩
Already long market and still long.dude stop with this garbage bear narrative u keep trying to push.. ur making ppl lose money , and only a stupid / stubborn person cant see the economy is recovering now .. only stubborn people are still shorting... you are not stupid or stubborn, you are better then these brain dead bears.
bro's , DXY has Daily Bearish divergence, its gonna DROP like a ROCK, DXY is DONE, finito, curtains closing
bro's , DXY has Daily Bearish divergence, its gonna DROP like a ROCK, DXY is DONE, finito, curtains closing
I told you like month ago that this is gonna go close to ath before year end check post history.
Now I am telling you back end of Jan 12th to end of Feb market will sell.
See you end of Jan.
Good luck buying all time highs.
RSI lmaooooooo
12-13-2023, 03:42 PM
-
#4504
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By Oceanofthc⏩
I try not to tell people what to do and just say what I’m doing in case anyone cares. I’ve missed out a little on leaving the equity market in my 401k, but bonds are actually treating me quite well since I started buying as the 20 year was over 5%.dude stop with this garbage bear narrative u keep trying to push.. ur making ppl lose money , and only a stupid / stubborn person cant see the economy is recovering now .. only stubborn people are still shorting... you are not stupid or stubborn, you are better then these brain dead bears.
bro's , DXY has Daily Bearish divergence, its gonna DROP like a ROCK, DXY is DONE, finito, curtains closing
bro's , DXY has Daily Bearish divergence, its gonna DROP like a ROCK, DXY is DONE, finito, curtains closing
That said keeping rates high should force market to plateau and then cuts come to support market when it starts dropping. They won’t cut before markets drop. This is fairly straight forward.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
12-13-2023, 08:02 PM
-
#4505
12-13-2023, 08:15 PM
-
#4506
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Up 20% today...https://www.google.com/search?client...x-b-1-d&q=upstWhen you got posters coming in here talking about UPST / AFRM / HOOD shiit that doesn't make money you know....top is near.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
12-13-2023, 09:15 PM
-
#4507
- SaviorSelfJT
- clownslayer
-
- SaviorSelfJT
- clownslayer
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Posts: 12,855
- Rep Power: 166618
-
-
Me this afternoon
:upscale()/2016/02/25/838/n/1922283/084645a9f32f99f6_a0133af6df8488abcb3bd3f0c2efd08e.jpg)
Best lifts:
Bench press: 315x5
Squat: 465x1
Strict press: 205x5
Deadlift: 405x13 (conv tap'n'go with straps)
12-14-2023, 06:23 AM
-
#4508
12-14-2023, 09:07 AM
-
#4509
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
Fed has 3 rate cuts next year in their projections.
Stock market has 6 rate cuts next year.
Fed thinks 4.625% rate at end of 2024
Market thinks 3.875% rate at end of 2024.
Six rate cuts next year means recession.
You can't have recession if stock market is in bull market and all time high. It has never happened in history.
If Fed did great job and inflation is defeated and no more job losses / great earnings why would you be doing 6 rate cuts?
2023 was year where everyone piled into magnificent 7....apple / msft / google / amazon / nvda / meta / avgo.
2024 will need to be year where everyone starts buying small caps and 493 other stocks that did nothing all year.
Stock market has 6 rate cuts next year.
Fed thinks 4.625% rate at end of 2024
Market thinks 3.875% rate at end of 2024.
Six rate cuts next year means recession.
You can't have recession if stock market is in bull market and all time high. It has never happened in history.
If Fed did great job and inflation is defeated and no more job losses / great earnings why would you be doing 6 rate cuts?
2023 was year where everyone piled into magnificent 7....apple / msft / google / amazon / nvda / meta / avgo.
2024 will need to be year where everyone starts buying small caps and 493 other stocks that did nothing all year.
12-14-2023, 10:54 AM
-
#4510
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I've been piling into small caps for a while. If rates go down they should rebound hard. Historically small cap has outperformed other caps, well according to my analyses.Fed has 3 rate cuts next year in their projections.
Stock market has 6 rate cuts next year.
Fed thinks 4.625% rate at end of 2024
Market thinks 3.875% rate at end of 2024.
Six rate cuts next year means recession.
You can't have recession if stock market is in bull market and all time high. It has never happened in history.
If Fed did great job and inflation is defeated and no more job losses / great earnings why would you be doing 6 rate cuts?
2023 was year where everyone piled into magnificent 7....apple / msft / google / amazon / nvda / meta / avgo.
2024 will need to be year where everyone starts buying small caps and 493 other stocks that did nothing all year.
Stock market has 6 rate cuts next year.
Fed thinks 4.625% rate at end of 2024
Market thinks 3.875% rate at end of 2024.
Six rate cuts next year means recession.
You can't have recession if stock market is in bull market and all time high. It has never happened in history.
If Fed did great job and inflation is defeated and no more job losses / great earnings why would you be doing 6 rate cuts?
2023 was year where everyone piled into magnificent 7....apple / msft / google / amazon / nvda / meta / avgo.
2024 will need to be year where everyone starts buying small caps and 493 other stocks that did nothing all year.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
12-14-2023, 12:22 PM
-
#4511
12-14-2023, 12:58 PM
-
#4512
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
I am not sure any of the meme stocks are short yet.
Even with cooked technical.
Lot of those names have really high SI multiples and they can force big covers into year end.
I would keep eye on ARKK.
That is pretty much the name for meme stuff that calls top.
Even with cooked technical.
Lot of those names have really high SI multiples and they can force big covers into year end.
I would keep eye on ARKK.
That is pretty much the name for meme stuff that calls top.
12-15-2023, 12:40 PM
-
#4513
- Destor
- Registered User
-
- Destor
- Registered User
- Join Date: Apr 2012
- Location: Alberta, Canada
- Age: 41
- Posts: 43,481
- Rep Power: 254906
-
-
Legitimately surprised that a publicly-traded company I worked with four or five years ago has actually produced good returns since then
Stock was part of the compensation there, didn’t believe in the company but just sat on the stock and let it do the dividend thing, now actually has like tripled the original (small) investment — seems like it’s just tough to lose over the long term
Stock was part of the compensation there, didn’t believe in the company but just sat on the stock and let it do the dividend thing, now actually has like tripled the original (small) investment — seems like it’s just tough to lose over the long term
12-15-2023, 01:29 PM
-
#4514
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Everything has done well unless it went public in 2021 or beyond lmaoLegitimately surprised that a publicly-traded company I worked with four or five years ago has actually produced good returns since then
Stock was part of the compensation there, didn’t believe in the company but just sat on the stock and let it do the dividend thing, now actually has like tripled the original (small) investment — seems like it’s just tough to lose over the long term
Stock was part of the compensation there, didn’t believe in the company but just sat on the stock and let it do the dividend thing, now actually has like tripled the original (small) investment — seems like it’s just tough to lose over the long term
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
12-15-2023, 08:57 PM
-
#4515
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
-
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
- Join Date: Feb 2007
- Location: Minnesota, United States
- Posts: 14,775
- Rep Power: 55757
-
-
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
The market has never lost over the long term. Ever.Legitimately surprised that a publicly-traded company I worked with four or five years ago has actually produced good returns since then
Stock was part of the compensation there, didn’t believe in the company but just sat on the stock and let it do the dividend thing, now actually has like tripled the original (small) investment — seems like it’s just tough to lose over the long term
Stock was part of the compensation there, didn’t believe in the company but just sat on the stock and let it do the dividend thing, now actually has like tripled the original (small) investment — seems like it’s just tough to lose over the long term
trainingwithryan.substack.com
12-16-2023, 12:27 PM
-
#4516
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Lol Tug I think we talked about using first in/first out and last in first out before no?
@Carbon how you gonna play the drop? I was considering playing the VIX for a big move. Either $20C March for $1.6 or April $1.90, but now that there are daily options for SPY and such it seems like the volatility needed to hit $20-25 is pretty dramatic. IDK what it would take to get there. Is there a way to estimate the move needed?
@Carbon how you gonna play the drop? I was considering playing the VIX for a big move. Either $20C March for $1.6 or April $1.90, but now that there are daily options for SPY and such it seems like the volatility needed to hit $20-25 is pretty dramatic. IDK what it would take to get there. Is there a way to estimate the move needed?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
12-16-2023, 03:40 PM
-
#4517
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
but LIFO or FIFO is how you account for those tax lots when you go to sellI wasn't referring to LIFO vs FIFO, I mean tax lots in general.. like for BROS I have probably 10-15 different purchases and this whole time I've been tracking my cost basis on an excel sheet trying to figure out where I've made profit and at what price I can break even. Realizing that only works if I'm looking at selling all the shares, but with individual lots if I'm using them to offset gains elsewhere, it's completely irrelevant because a lot purchased today has no effect on the cost of a lot purchased 3 months ago, or even on the overall cost basis if I'm selling it at a profit or a loss.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
12-18-2023, 01:44 PM
-
#4518
Fairly proud of myself with this...
Spoiler!
I wanted to double it at a minimum, but figured might as well realize these gains and potentially come back into the game if NVDA ever falls back down. A terrible habit with me and options is I get so fixated on reaching a target goal (50% profit, double, triple, etc), that even if I'm like 10% away I'm too stubborn to pull the trigger and I watch forever as it turns into a loss.
TBH I had some dumb realized losses this year, this makes up for most of it I think.
Spoiler!
I wanted to double it at a minimum, but figured might as well realize these gains and potentially come back into the game if NVDA ever falls back down. A terrible habit with me and options is I get so fixated on reaching a target goal (50% profit, double, triple, etc), that even if I'm like 10% away I'm too stubborn to pull the trigger and I watch forever as it turns into a loss.
TBH I had some dumb realized losses this year, this makes up for most of it I think.
12-19-2023, 09:16 AM
-
#4519
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
ath
SP and NQ
remarkable
who had this on their dildo chart Jan 2023.
SP and NQ
remarkable
who had this on their dildo chart Jan 2023.
12-19-2023, 10:46 AM
-
#4520
12-19-2023, 11:23 AM
-
#4521
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
pure guess hereFeeling such FOMO.
Prediction for 2024?
Prediction for 2024?
there is market pull back (healthy considering this run) mid January to end of February maybe 300-400 point sell on SP 500.
Unless something blows up (credit crisis/politics/war) everyone would buy the October lows on second ask. (Can't see SP 500 touching 4200 atm)
Fed won't do as many cuts as market thinks they will do.
Inflation will not straight line down.
I am swing trader now so think in quarters.
Close to selling my swing long here on ES and than just wait and see what happens start of new year.
12-19-2023, 12:14 PM
-
#4522
12-19-2023, 12:24 PM
-
#4523
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
Originally Posted By thatsnarf⏩
bet on AFRM/UPST/SOFI/RKT etc is bet that financial conditions next year are getting easier so sure if that is the macro theme than they will get green lightso do i throw my life savings into AFRM since it's going to the moon and beyond
or
SOFI
or
SOFI
the fed pivot players started accumulating afrm looks like Nov.
so now its kinda late on the boat you would need some pullback.
AFRM Nov 1 was $20
now its $50ish
its very tough to chase when they didn't even shake weak hands yet, u need pull back and see what kinda pullback is coming.
again everything is by product of what economy pictures looks like next year.
12-19-2023, 01:46 PM
-
#4524
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By thatsnarf⏩
I still like Sofi. Haven’t followed them lately cuz their shares are just sitting in my portfolio, but I’m trying to decide if they’ve gone up enough to write some $10 CC or not.so do i throw my life savings into AFRM since it's going to the moon and beyond
or
SOFI
or
SOFI
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
12-19-2023, 03:49 PM
-
#4525
- dopamine72
- Endorphin Junkie
-
- dopamine72
- Endorphin Junkie
- Join Date: Apr 2009
- Location: California, United States
- Posts: 32,991
- Rep Power: 228656
-
-
Starting to feel the feels on my SNAP prediction making it but I didn't get in..
Fuark
Liking the uprun we've had w/ AMZN, NFLX, TSLA
AMZN has taken so fking long
Fuark
Liking the uprun we've had w/ AMZN, NFLX, TSLA
AMZN has taken so fking long
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
12-19-2023, 04:31 PM
-
#4526
- NestBrah
- Registered User
-
- NestBrah
- Registered User
- Join Date: Jan 2012
- Age: 33
- Posts: 370
- Rep Power: 1228
-
-
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I saw your previous prediction you thought 4100-4200 from Jan. Seems like you've become more bullish.pure guess here
there is market pull back (healthy considering this run) mid January to end of February maybe 300-400 point sell on SP 500.
Unless something blows up (credit crisis/politics/war) everyone would buy the October lows on second ask. (Can't see SP 500 touching 4200 atm)
Fed won't do as many cuts as market thinks they will do.
Inflation will not straight line down.
I am swing trader now so think in quarters.
Close to selling my swing long here on ES and than just wait and see what happens start of new year.
there is market pull back (healthy considering this run) mid January to end of February maybe 300-400 point sell on SP 500.
Unless something blows up (credit crisis/politics/war) everyone would buy the October lows on second ask. (Can't see SP 500 touching 4200 atm)
Fed won't do as many cuts as market thinks they will do.
Inflation will not straight line down.
I am swing trader now so think in quarters.
Close to selling my swing long here on ES and than just wait and see what happens start of new year.
12-19-2023, 04:48 PM
-
#4527
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
How many times I have changed my mind probably lost count.I saw your previous prediction you thought 4100-4200 from Jan. Seems like you've become more bullish.
Market could go up / could go down.
You're just playing game of probability.
12-19-2023, 05:55 PM
-
#4528
- NestBrah
- Registered User
-
- NestBrah
- Registered User
- Join Date: Jan 2012
- Age: 33
- Posts: 370
- Rep Power: 1228
-
-
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Yeah, I guess very very bad time to buy S&P 500 right now though regardless. Big pullback surely coming.How many times I have changed my mind probably lost count.
Market could go up / could go down.
You're just playing game of probability.
Market could go up / could go down.
You're just playing game of probability.
12-19-2023, 06:19 PM
-
#4529
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
-
- Carbonfibre
- Rubber Banding
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 15,122
- Rep Power: 53107
-
-
This is really good way to look at it.
2023 right now +24.19%
Index investing over long run will beat stock pickers 99/100.
Yes I wouldn't be buying ath here Jan1st, but this gives nice perspective why timing tops and bottom super difficult.
2023 right now +24.19%
Index investing over long run will beat stock pickers 99/100.
Yes I wouldn't be buying ath here Jan1st, but this gives nice perspective why timing tops and bottom super difficult.
12-20-2023, 02:27 AM
-
#4530
- MinisterOfLust
- 👽👽👽👽👽👽
-
- MinisterOfLust
- 👽👽👽👽👽👽
- Join Date: Aug 2003
- Location: United States
- Posts: 65,452
- Rep Power: 688524
-
-
Sold X at 50 for a nice little profit.
Bookmarks
-
- Digg
-
- del.icio.us
-
- StumbleUpon
-
-
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts