Thanks this is interesting. If you were going to DCA 100k over the next year, what sort of entry point would you look for now? 4500? 4400?

airdropped 8k levana tokens which is 5k usd. i dump this **** or what?

Bought a SQQQ call at 10am crew

well done.

that was it for me on year end swing long ES futures.

now chill and wait for January and see how its looking.

Depends on the outlook of the company/sector and whether you plan on staying. What's the vesting period?

How long are you required to hold? I would do it 100%. I am certain if they give 15% that you probably have a dividend paid out too right? So you instantly are making 15% + whatever dividend. If you are still concerned sell a CC on your trading account as well that is at the money and hopefully earn yourself another 5-10% for duration you are locked into those shares. At that point, you should net about 25-30% or so hopefully within a year so unless shares drop that much you should be fine. Otherwise buy ATM puts + sell ATM calls and hope those 2 balance out.

EDIT: sat on this post for a long time and didn't see 3 months vesting. 100% go max and just sell every 3 months.

Why can't you just buy $150P for 3 months out? You could do that + sell $150C and you are looking at 15% + premium for call -premium for the put. No way you lose money doing that and you'd only lose whatever the difference in premium is and capping your upside which is fine when you are given 15% for free. It is essentially a free 15%. Not to mention you work at the company so you should be able to get a fair idea of what earnings are going to bring before it is announced.

IMO- just build up to 100 shares no downside hedge, but maybe sell CCs a little ways out. Then once you go past 100 shares start hedging with 1 put 3 months out. Then just sell 100 shares whenever you get to 200.

Yeah since 2008. Keep investing in the clown based system and hope for the best.

if you wanted to test out your trading skills on a very small scale and after lots of studying, would u start with individual stocks or ETFs?

looking in to a dividend ETF actually

ETFs are less risk, but less reward.

Did anyone ever join me in buying fnma?finally getting some movement.

Anyone else make some money on Nike this morning?

That 12% drop is crazy for a company of that size and stature.

Yup only 7.7% better than your alternative investment on an after tax basis. 3 months is a short holding period. I’ve lead you to water fella I won’t make you drink it.

Damn, if you invested at the top of 1999, you would've taken massive Ls for 3 consecutive years and probably lost well over 50% of your principle. That said, this chart and this thread are a good example of how DCAing regularly into indices is the way to go for 95% of people. For another 4%, the time/effort to generate that little bit of alpha probably isn't worth it. The remaining 1% is either super lucky or actually really good. Everyone thinks they're in that 1%, but few are. Looking at that graph, you can almost expect >10% nominal returns on the S&P 500 regularly. Pretty hard to top that result and will lead to tremendous wealth via compounding if you keep at it for many years without getting scared.

99% of people are better off with indexes.

Averaging into indices and then bringing down your cost basis by throwing in even more money when it takes a dive, is probably the way to go that involves averaging in and still jumping on opportunities to buy lower when they present themselves (and they will)

I’m crushing it with them, personally. I love my VOO, VUG, VYM, and BND.

In another note, made a little more on NKE today. It’s been fun playing it’s emotional market reaction since last week.

I've always wondered how the retirees from 2008/09 fared.. I remember they had shows like 60 Minutes that dedicated an episode to people that were 58-65 that just or were about to retire. They lost like half their 401k value. Some were crying, others obviously upset. I don't remember any follow-ups to those. I'd be interested in seeing a documentary or read a book on those that have taken net long term losses in the market. I wonder how much of a percentage of people experience that

Go woke go broke

Zoom out.

Imagine being ready to retire at the beginning of 2020, market dives, panic sell, sudden recovery, and then inflation goes rampant for the first time in like 40 years

Even without the panic sell, stuff like rampant inflation can destroy retirement plans that were built around different expectations -- part of that is how you get more people back into the workforce

Indeed. According to that chart I presented, it's common for the S&P to return at least 10-20% in any given year at a minimum. If you take 10% to account for some of the lesser years, you're doubling your money every 7 years without investing any incremental time, besides telling Vanguard/Schwab/Fidelity to automatically deposit money from your account into those index funds (so literally 0 after the initial setup).

I'm kind of the mind now that unless you're finding a potential 3 bagger, it's just not worth chasing solid compound growth at 15ish% like Buffett and all did because the S&P will almost do that for you by itself. I think it's better at this point to just focus on my job and make sure I can keep having cash flow to DCA in. I'll only now buy:

1. Money markets if I think the market run is too overextended (my opinion as of right now, it is)

2. There's a potential value play that could double to triple within 2-3 years

3. There's a growth stock that could maybe hit it big

Outside of that, I think I'm 100% $VOO and $SWVVX at this point. Even for the individual plays, I'm not risking any more than 1-2% of my net worth on a stonk anymore.

So much this.

If you had $100K to invest $70K imo should be spent over several index funds. Have some cash on sideline / buy some tbills / and leave small portion maybe $10K to gamble on scams.

Everyone wants to be stock picker but reality is that 1/50 will show you how they beat the sp and imagine the mental capacity it takes to do the hard work and research just to get that return.




Closer look

Year to date.






I circle back later on this post over weekend.

I think quite a few people panic sell. When WSJ starts reporting on it, I'm assuming it's occurring. Most people don't know what they're doing, other than they see they're "losing money". My parents barely even invest outside of a small amount in their Roth IRA. And they don't trust banks to keep much of it there. I know they aren't alone. Even a local school board financial committee sold at the bottom in 08/09, lost hundreds of millions, might even had been a billion by panic selling. Just take your avg voter as an example, they're just as clueless with finances unless they have an advisor, even then, they will tell the advisors to sell.I agree with having the majority of your money in indexes; a couple. That approach has never steered me wrong, as long as you're careful about them not being overexposed to tech, if you see a tech recession in the future, anyway.

I wouldn't give Buffett too much credit. Once his company makes a substantial investment in a company, I'm sure they're pulling plenty of strings in the background after they find potential for gains within the company and advise from there. That's not really much of Buffet doing something more so than people on his team making a company more profitable using their experience which has worked with other companies. Pretty big difference of passive vs active investing.

And let's be honest, most of us want to make money just using compound interest, set it and forget it. And studies show DCA into indexes in a passive manner is the best answer.

Dang, VUG is on a tear.Agreed. I stack cash in the background in case something comes up. Dips have always come around to lower the cost basis a bit.

It's not 100% safe, but nothing in finance is. If Schwab goes belly up, then yeah, you won't recoup your money in SWVXX. There's risk in everything though. You're only FDIC insured at any major bank up to $250K and putting your money in index funds, be it equity or bond, has a material risk of loss of principle too.

Mo Money Mo Problems I guess

I give Buffett credit for taking advantage of the stock market for the time period he grew up in. You're definitely right that now he has resources I'll never be able to with the capital he has. I also think that's why he hasn't done as great recently. Markets are so god damn efficient now that it's retardedly hard to consistently make money. Gone are the days companies regularly trade for below their cash book value. The only time that'll happen is if the market thinks the company is going bankrupt and there's material probability of a write-down in assets/liquidation

I think the only way to really generate alpha is to make a big bet against the conventional wisdom, be it micro or a big macro call, and consistently be right. Even guys who crush it on a huge call, like Mike Burry, aren't consistently right and underperform, even though they obviously have the intellectual horsepower and emotional stability to stomach large losses. I'll try to make maybe 1-2 calls a year just in case I'm right, but I doubt I can do it consistently, especially with a day job.

At the end of the day, my only truly great call that I bet big on was buying equity in 2020 when everyone thought the world would end or at least nothing would happen for 3-5 years with the pandemic hysteria. I saw through the bullchit and was buying $SPY hand over fist, because I knew even if I were wrong, it was a safe investment that would eventually be right someday. I also correctly called the oil bottom, but there was a lot more risk in that thesis and I didn't really put that much money into it as a result. The point of that dear diary entry is:

1. If you have enough capital to throw some dry powder at the S&P to take advantage of a perceived crisis/when things are super pessimistic, you can still make a chit load of money with good risk-reward outcomes just with boring old $SPY. You won't make the phuck you money that buying $TSLA in 2014 would, but your risk is way lower and you'll probably never pay taxes because there's rarely any need to sell S&P stock en-masse.

2. It's really scary from a psychological standpoint to take a contrarian view when the whole world is telling you you're wrong. Most likely, the world is right, so you risk losing not only a lot of money in an absolute sense if you're wrong, but also in a relative sense since the market is likely going up while you lost money. That means it takes massive balls and a strong stomach to make a contrarian bet. Thus, even if you're right, it's unlikely you'll make serious money, given you probably didn't invest that much to begin with. Notice how lots of people talk in % returns, but not absolute $. It's because they probably didn't make that much money with their genius pick. Maybe you guys have bigger balls than I do, but I can't stomach losing tens of thousands of dollars because I made an incorrect bet in the direction of something.

It'll take a long af time for the indices to catch up with my moves in 2019-2020, but I haven't been lulled into thinking this can be easily replicated lol

your time line history is bit short.

buying oil at the true bottom of bottoms was like buying 2008 stock market bottom. (like once every 10 year moment where truly something goes aww phuck bye moment)


the next 5-10 years in energy could be nothing but sideways. ala 2012 to 2020



from memory you have tons on suncor

prior to 2020 had you been holding suncor you would be flat atm



post 2008 crash

qqq orange

black sp 500

blue xle (energy)