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» Who is trading stocks now?
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post 1601780551 04-06-2020, 09:17 AM
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#31
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Originally Posted By MattyMiscer
Best thread: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=168274783
***Black Crew*** (emeritus)
post 1601780571 04-06-2020, 09:17 AM
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#32
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Originally Posted By rectifryer
That's all you partner. Last stock I could effectively day trade was AMD when it was 10$ because it was right on top of quarterly earnings. Even then, that's not real day trading. I'd rather take a simple approach and hold for longer periods. I guess in the end the only difference is I will only buy when there are historically low periods.
This is how people generally invest. Unless they are day traders = buy high, sell low.

However, keeping in mind diminishing income opportunities, payments that won't just disappear, keeping up with the Jones' and most American't not having emergency funds, you may get caught with your pants down.

Plenty of people I know got taken to the cleaners in 2008 because they had cash flow issues due to job loss.
"The manlet is a savage beast that knows no moral bound. After falling in disgrace to a manmore, a ravaged manlet would not hesitate to come from behind and land a sucker punch/ swing with a rock to the back of a manmore's head. They are ruthless and you need to spend some more time in the gutter to even begin trying to comprehend what goes on in their minds."

Hurt by the aleeboy and need to cope? Go here for hugs: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=178724011
post 1601780771 04-06-2020, 09:19 AM
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#33
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Originally Posted By Lefticle
Lmfao


Miscers (with the exception of Venom) are some of the worst investors/traders with the worst advice I've ever seen in my life.

That said, I'm still DCA'ing in. Short term, I might lose some or I might make some. Long term, I'm gonna make a piss ton.
This. I'm 33. Any money I invest will be in place for at least 20-30 years.
Originally Posted By Scoresman923
I am an activer DCAer. However, vanguard released a study and showed that those who made one large lump sum made more money than those who DCAed.

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf
Your technically better off with a lump sum but its a hard pull to swallow if you drop all your cash in at once and you lose 20-30% short term. I'm DCAing $250-300 per week. I've made a few lump purchases when things were really low. But for now the goal is 1K per month.



Emergency fund in place. Stable income. And I'm confident this isn't the end of the world.
post 1601780781 04-06-2020, 09:19 AM
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#34
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Originally Posted By aleeboy
This assumes that the stock market has performed as it has in the lead up to 2019 before things started to get shaky.
I'm not assuming anything about the present, just pointing out that allegations of 20-year recoveries in historical data are usually based on common financial errors.
I don't think it is a good time to buy or DCA. DCA is a brokerages dream - thanks for the fees, cucks! DCA is second best to Index funds or any other type of funds.
Wait.

1) You pay fees?

2) How is DCA incompatible with funds?
Nah, fukk that. I’m not doing that.
post 1601780901 04-06-2020, 09:21 AM
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#35
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I bought Moderna at $31 about a week ago and Novavax at ~ $11 and $14.

Doing quite well at the moment.

Was planning on investing in airlines but think I will hold off now.
post 1601780991 04-06-2020, 09:22 AM
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#36
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Originally Posted By aleeboy
This is how people generally invest. Unless they are day traders = buy high, sell low.

However, keeping in mind diminishing income opportunities, payments that won't just disappear, keeping up with the Jones' and most American't not having emergency funds, you may get caught with your pants down.

Plenty of people I know got taken to the cleaners in 2008 because they had cash flow issues due to job loss.
Hey what do you call a day trader that just took a 30% loss?

An investor aye lmao
Boycott foodservice industry crew
post 1601781041 04-06-2020, 09:23 AM
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#37
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Lol nah... buy and hold always until im ready to cash some of my holdings in on real estate investments.

Day trading is alot like gambling...only a select few will be successful at beating the house.
This fool's running a Honda 2000
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Just lol at officels *Tradie Crew*
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post 1601781341 04-06-2020, 09:26 AM
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#38
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I traded straight through the 2007 crash. Chit was insane and i wouldn't do it again.

Dat stress.
post 1601781371 04-06-2020, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted By Lefticle
100%

Anyone who says DCAing is a bad idea (lockdev) doesn't know chit about investing and is a dumbass of the stupidest order. More money has been made DCAing than any other strategy in history.
DCAing is a risk mitigation strategy.

Money isn't made from DCAing, it's preserved in the event of a loss.

You know what's a better risk-mitigation strategy? Not buying in an upside-down, debt-filled, manipulated market.

But keep thinking I'm a dumbass because I'm not putting my money into a chitshow.
Misc Entrepreneur Crew
post 1601781771 04-06-2020, 09:33 AM
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#40
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Originally Posted By lockdev
DCAing is a risk mitigation strategy.

Money isn't made from DCAing, it's preserved in the event of a loss.

You know what's a better risk-mitigation strategy? Not buying in an upside-down, debt-filled, manipulated market.

But keep thinking I'm a dumbass because I'm not putting my money into a chitshow.
Not saying your wrong just don't know what your stating the bolded in opposed to? That seems like it's part of the current valuation, not a sign of a future valuation.
Boycott foodservice industry crew
post 1601781781 04-06-2020, 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted By ANumber1
I'm not assuming anything about the present, just pointing out that allegations of 20-year recoveries in historical data are usually based on common financial errors.



Wait.

1) You pay fees?

2) How is DCA incompatible with funds?
I was simply referring to your point on the value of money and how this eroded over time and would have been better off invested. This is an incorrect statement IMO.

On
1) Of course I pay fees. I pay for Best Execution. Most people pay ZERO fees for the worst price in the bid/ask spread. You can check your executions if you use a zero cost broker. My prices will be at the top end of the spread.

2) My point is to say funds are not good investment products. Also, DCA on funds now is the best way to miss out on the swings. As I pointed out, anyone who does not trade on momentum will be missing out on huge gains. Look at the pension funds taking a huge hit now! Imagine being a Boomer who lost 30% of their lump sum... guess they will keep most of their money "in" and go with monthly drawdowns. If you get the picture I'm trying to paint, you will understand about long term investing and the risks associated with this.
"The manlet is a savage beast that knows no moral bound. After falling in disgrace to a manmore, a ravaged manlet would not hesitate to come from behind and land a sucker punch/ swing with a rock to the back of a manmore's head. They are ruthless and you need to spend some more time in the gutter to even begin trying to comprehend what goes on in their minds."

Hurt by the aleeboy and need to cope? Go here for hugs: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=178724011
post 1601782461 04-06-2020, 09:42 AM
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#42
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Originally Posted By lockdev
DCAing is a risk mitigation strategy.

Money isn't made from DCAing, it's preserved in the event of a loss.

You know what's a better risk-mitigation strategy? Not buying in an upside-down, debt-filled, manipulated market.

But keep thinking I'm a dumbass because I'm not putting my money into a chitshow.
Dollar cost averaging is way to mitigate risk in a turbulent market. Its also a way to get slightly better deals when you invest during a turbulent market. Also most people don't just have 100K sitting around to be invested. However, most people can probably streamline a budget, and find $25.00-$300.00 per week to invest over a long period of time. Either that or they can save that money weekly and try to buy low. But they may be caught with their pants down in the market takes an upturn.


There are basically two types of people:
1. Those that think this is the end of the world as we know it. Will take the rest of our life-times to recover. Market may never recover. Etc.
2. Those that think this is a decent buying opportunity after a long bull run. Things will stabilize and return to normal. Markets will recover over the long term. Etc.






Literally everyone wants to invest when the market is soaring and there is no end in sight. Not many people have the appetite to invest when its in a fallen, turbulent state with no upturn in sight. Billionaires, hedge funds, etc. have been buying.
post 1601782511 04-06-2020, 09:43 AM
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Not day trading but my oil buys are up $2,000 right now. I'm holding onto them long term
post 1601782751 04-06-2020, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer
Not saying your wrong just don't know what your stating the bolded in opposed to? That seems like it's part of the current valuation, not a sign of a future valuation.
The market was manipulated before this whole thing happened. The 30% drop was just the start of the bad things to come. The only thing keeping this thing going is more debt, provided by the Fed. That's not true growth.

The future holds one of two things: paying back debt or bringing on more debt. Actual growth is years, if not decades, out.

Look, I screamed at the top of my lungs back in 2007 when I noticed there was trouble. A lot of people were just like they are today, basically "herp, market goes vroom", "real estate never goes down", etc, etc. We've never really recovered from that. We live in a debt-obsessed economy and things are not getting better.

If you're 20, or 30, then more power to you. If you're 40 and want to risk retirement at 70, more power to you. Just know you're buying into a pyramid scheme.

For those of us who are within 15 years of retirement, this is a stupid time to be buying in. Historic return on the market is 7%. The current risk isn't nearly worth that.
Misc Entrepreneur Crew
post 1601782951 04-06-2020, 09:49 AM
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#45
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Originally Posted By rectifryer
That's 100% rational thinking, but how much of unemployment is going to just revert when business resumes? Obviously none of this means anything without attaching some sort of time to it. Let's say next quarterly earnings are a disaster for everyone and we'll make a minor digression. How much will the market reduce from the 30% it's down now? We've already seen the unemployment reports hit the market, we just haven't seen the resulting profit loss hit. I'd anticipate that existing trades have anticipated the future value of a company, hence the already reduced prices. Are you saying we're going to see that effect twice?

That's what I don't really understand. There's this mindset of double jeopardy, where BAM the market goes down because of a pandemic, when materially all the market should care about is the loss of profit from the pandemic. We've already experienced that crash, no? Or is this crash attributable to another reason?
The market is being artificially propped up by the fed so I dont think it reflects the true suverity of the situation. I dont believe for a second all the jobs will just bounce right back the minute the government allows businesses to reopen. Some of those small businesses are closed down forever. The bigger companies arent going to just rehire everyone, a lot were layoffs, those people are transfered over to the state to collect unemployment, the businesses not having revenue for a while are not going on a spending(rehiring) spree, they will ease back into it and a lot of jobs arent coming back.

There is so much going on behind the scenes that doesnt get the attention it deserves, here is an example

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coro...tgage-ceo.html

CARE act mandated that banks allow mortgage payments to be delayed by 90 days or more with no questions asked under a payment plan. But the banks still have to pay their banks. Theyre expected to just eat the cost and float the money. inb4 another banking bail out is needed in 6 months.
post 1601783841 04-06-2020, 10:03 AM
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#46
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This is the time to buy some solid blue chip stocks for the long term, quality shares have gotten a beating they didn't deserve. This corona **** won't last forever.
post 1601784111 04-06-2020, 10:06 AM
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made thousands with 2x vix and lost thousands with thi- can someone please shut the ****ing printer off ****
post 1601784181 04-06-2020, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted By lockdev
DCAing is a risk mitigation strategy.

Money isn't made from DCAing, it's preserved in the event of a loss.

You know what's a better risk-mitigation strategy? Not buying in an upside-down, debt-filled, manipulated market.

Butkeep thinking I'm a dumbass because I'm not putting my money into a chitshow.
You're not a dumbass for not putting money in right now, you're a dumbass because you're chitting on the most tried and true investment strategy around.
Originally Posted By lockdev
The market was manipulated before this whole thing happened.The 30% drop was just the start of the bad things to come. The only thing keeping this thing going is more debt, provided by the Fed. That's not true growth.

The future holds one of two things: paying back debt or bringing on more debt. Actual growth is years, if not decades, out.

Look, I screamed at the top of my lungs back in 2007 when I noticed there was trouble. A lot of people were just like they are today, basically "herp, market goes vroom", "real estate never goes down", etc, etc. We've never really recovered from that. We live in a debt-obsessed economy and things are not getting better.

If you're 20, or 30, then more power to you. If you're 40 and want to risk retirement at 70, more power to you. Just know you're buying into a pyramid scheme.

For those of us who are within 15 years of retirement, this is a stupid time to be buying in. Historic return on the market is 7%. The current risk isn't nearly worth that.
Rule #1 of investing/trading: Anyone who says they know what will happen to the market in the future is full of chit up to their eyeballs.
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1601785271 04-06-2020, 10:21 AM
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#49
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Originally Posted By aleeboy
1) Of course I pay fees. I pay for Best Execution. Most people pay ZERO fees for the worst price in the bid/ask spread. You can check your executions if you use a zero cost broker. My prices will be at the top end of the spread.
I haven't read every post in this thread, but I'm inferring that this is significant because you're trading large sums intraday. That's cool, but differs dramatically from the trades most people make in index funds. I may have misunderstood the scenario you were concerned with. For most people who are looking at weekly/monthly unleveraged purchases to DCA into a speculative position, I would submit to you that paying trading fees is more detrimental than the spread issue. I would also submit to you that the market's reaction to Schwab announcing zero fees did not indicate that institutional analysts - who know a little bit about this industry - believed the big brokers can make up the full amount elsewhere.
2) My point is to say funds are not good investment products. Also, DCA on funds now is the best way to miss out on the swings. As I pointed out, anyone who does not trade on momentum will be missing out on huge gains. Look at the pension funds taking a huge hit now! Imagine being a Boomer who lost 30% of their lump sum... guess they will keep most of their money "in" and go with monthly drawdowns. If you get the picture I'm trying to paint, you will understand about long term investing and the risks associated with this.
So here we may have to address the difference between "trading" and "investing", but when you say "imagine being a Boomer", you're circling back to my original point about time horizons. It's absolutely true that telling somebody in their 60s with no flexibility to stay the course might be a bad idea, but it's also true that that person should not be down 30% and if they are, they were disastrously overexposed to equities for somebody in their 60s with no flexibility and should consider arson as a legitimate strategy for avenging themselves on their financial planner. An acquaintance of mine in their 60s who I discuss these things with and consider severely overexposed for their age is presently down 15% from their peak and maybe 12% year-over-year. They'll rebalance and move on.

With that said, as I said, I would submit to you that the average Miscer skews younger than the median population and that this is not a widespread concern. I took the opportunity to rebalance out of bonds, crank up my automatic contributions to tax-sheltered accounts, and also start making some manual taxable purchases in stocks I consider to be on sale. Fukk 'em all, I'm going to buy Boeing shares until I'm on the board or I'm going to be writing off the losses against my personal income for years.
Nah, fukk that. I’m not doing that.
post 1601785441 04-06-2020, 10:23 AM
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#50
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Sold a bunch of 4/17 puts (short puts) when VIX was 70-80 and S&P was in the 2200-2300 range. Up pretty substantially.
post 1601786711 04-06-2020, 10:35 AM
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no i dont wanna waste time on that even though i think its fun
just lol if you guys think you can beat index over time and not burn yourself
odds are against you
post 1601787711 04-06-2020, 10:43 AM
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#52
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Originally Posted By ANumber1
I haven't read every post in this thread, but I'm inferring that this is significant because you're trading large sums intraday. That's cool, but differs dramatically from the trades most people make in index funds. I may have misunderstood the scenario you were concerned with. For most people who are looking at weekly/monthly unleveraged purchases to DCA into a speculative position, I would submit to you that paying trading fees is more detrimental than the spread issue. I would also submit to you that the market's reaction to Schwab announcing zero fees did not indicate that institutional analysts - who know a little bit about this industry - believed the big brokers can make up the full amount elsewhere.
Well, I guess it depends on what type of investor you are. I know a lot of companies sign employees up on monthly contribution plans to supplement their retirement funds. However, I manage my own portfolio and rebalance when there is a divergence from my strategy, or if there is a spanner in the mix. The spread is definitely material to me.

For your average investor, the spread may not be material enough to warrant paying for best execution. I agree. However, I imagine there was a reaction to the zero fees introduced by Schwab because it signified 1) a race to the bottom in fees 2) the emergence of retail investors in the US market - which is traditionally institutional led. Schwab also pulled out of a lot of geographies, so there is a BET Americans will be in the markets. This does not give me any positive signals about the merits of zero fees over best execution. I think people will be screwed by the bid/ask spread over time. No doubt this will be a lucrative business for such brokerages if 2) takes place.

So here we may have to address the difference between "trading" and "investing", but when you say "imagine being a Boomer", you're circling back to my original point about time horizons. It's absolutely true that telling somebody in their 60s with no flexibility to stay the course might be a bad idea, but it's also true that that person should not be down 30% and if they are, they were disastrously overexposed to equities for somebody in their 60s with no flexibility and should consider arson as a legitimate strategy for avenging themselves on their financial planner. An acquaintance of mine in their 60s who I discuss these things with and consider severely overexposed for their age is presently down 15% from their peak and maybe 12% year-over-year. They'll rebalance and move on.

With that said, as I said, I would submit to you that the average Miscer skews younger than the median population and that this is not a widespread concern. I took the opportunity to rebalance out of bonds, crank up my automatic contributions to tax-sheltered accounts, and also start making some manual taxable purchases in stocks I consider to be on sale. Fukk 'em all, I'm going to buy Boeing shares until I'm on the board or I'm going to be writing off the losses against my personal income for years.
We have very different investment strategies. Firstly, it is not about horizons. It is about where the future will head. Like life, the steps you make today will lead you to remarkably different places decades down the track. Oh man, Boeing... I have a very low valuation of them in mind and I would not be buying at the current prices, not would I be holding... I wonder whether the current tax incentives makes the market inefficient. Well, with 2) probably not going to plan, I see it as more people taking write offs against their incomes in the future.

These are my takes though.
"The manlet is a savage beast that knows no moral bound. After falling in disgrace to a manmore, a ravaged manlet would not hesitate to come from behind and land a sucker punch/ swing with a rock to the back of a manmore's head. They are ruthless and you need to spend some more time in the gutter to even begin trying to comprehend what goes on in their minds."

Hurt by the aleeboy and need to cope? Go here for hugs: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=178724011
post 1601788811 04-06-2020, 10:56 AM
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I bought several stocks when some hit historic lows and have decent balance sheets. Long term holds, I won’t sell for a while. Every one of them is up, really up but could easily go down and sit awhile as we work through this and a recession.
I probably banged your mom.

Eat the whole animal like a real man.
post 1601790021 04-06-2020, 11:11 AM
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#54
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Originally Posted By aleeboy
We have very different investment strategies. Firstly, it is not about horizons. It is about where the future will head. Like life, the steps you make today will lead you to remarkably different places decades down the track.
Yet that statement is also about time horizons. Those different places are spread out across time and yet temporary gains and losses can result from the same decision. Pursuing a college education almost always has a negative short-term return, yet can pay off tremendously over a longer horizon. To put it another way, the only way to use the phrase "horizons don't matter" is to suggest that one's strategy should be the same whether you need the money in two years or twenty years. At that point, I'd say we're not just pursuing different investment strategies, but that only one of us is engaged in investing at all.

Trading is what it is, there's nothing wrong with that, but analyzing "where the future will head" is just hand-waving and woo without a clear target for which future you're talking about. Six months and six years are going to look very different from one another, and we all have to put a price on our time to determine the relative ROI of doing the research to trade on such tight timeframes that we have to think about chiseling pennies off the spread.
Nah, fukk that. I’m not doing that.
post 1601790351 04-06-2020, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted By ANumber1
Yet that statement is also about time horizons. Those different places are spread out across time and yet temporary gains and losses can result from the same decision. Pursuing a college education almost always has a negative short-term return, yet can pay off tremendously over a longer horizon. To put it another way, the only way to use the phrase "horizons don't matter" is to suggest that one's strategy should be the same whether you need the money in two years or twenty years. At that point, I'd say we're not just pursuing different investment strategies, but that only one of us is engaged in investing at all.

Trading is what it is, there's nothing wrong with that, but analyzing "where the future will head" is just hand-waving and woo without a clear target for which future you're talking about. Six months and six years are going to look very different from one another.
An investor is someone who is hopeful things will go up considerably by the time they check out.

A trader is someone who makes profits and funnels them back into other investments to grow yield and capital.

They are the same thing. One is smarter than the other though.
"The manlet is a savage beast that knows no moral bound. After falling in disgrace to a manmore, a ravaged manlet would not hesitate to come from behind and land a sucker punch/ swing with a rock to the back of a manmore's head. They are ruthless and you need to spend some more time in the gutter to even begin trying to comprehend what goes on in their minds."

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post 1601790901 04-06-2020, 11:22 AM
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#56
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Originally Posted By aleeboy
An investor is someone who is hopeful things will go up considerably by the time they check out.

A trader is someone who makes profits and funnels them back into other investments to grow yield and capital.

They are the same thing. One is smarter than the other though.
Agreed and managing money is about knowing your limits. If don't have time to manage trades then investing is for you.
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post 1601791291 04-06-2020, 11:27 AM
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#57
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Originally Posted By aleeboy
They are the same thing. One is smarter than the other though.
We can certainly agree on that much.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3423101
Nah, fukk that. I’m not doing that.
post 1601796221 04-06-2020, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted By ANumber1
We can certainly agree on that much.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3423101
Yes, HFTs are self aware and aware of retail traders in ways beyond what any individual could analyze and can react defacto before you do. How can a retail day trader win aye lmao. Our data is already delayed.

I've no doubt you can make consistent, short term monthly and profitable trades but I can't reason daily.
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post 1601796271 04-06-2020, 12:25 PM
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I'm going to wait a few days to buy more stocks but I got sideline money.
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post 1601796981 04-06-2020, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted By lockdev
GTFO with that "don't time the market" bullchit.

That's meant for asshats that sell in the middle of a panic.

What those clowns don't tell you is that there have been multiple periods in history where the stock market took 20+ years to recover.

Time in the market though, right boyo?

If you're in, stay in.

If you're on the sidelines, you'd sure as fuark better stay there.
Uhh, yeah that's the point. If you're in your 20s/30s, you have plenty of time to recover losses. Plus, you're buying more shares when the stock market is lower, which means your returns are even higher when things go up again. I just showed you empirical evidence that even if you buy right at the worst times, you come out way ahead by not selling with a long enough time horizon. Imagine how much more you'll make by not buying at absolute peaks like my example.

Not sure what you're going on about, but enjoy those sub 1% treasury yields that'll get eaten away by inflation I guess.
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That buck that bought a bottle could've struck the lotto"
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