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ยป Our Vulnerable Electric Grid: Why Preppers Plan For A Blackout
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post 1633411803 03-10-2021, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer
Its not that 2/3rds would be dead within a year, its that you'd need to kill 2/3rds to keep the power grid down

hell, I'm pretty confident you could get the grid back up with 1/10th the population.


we'd figure something out

loss of gps, however, would be permanent....

Our USAF or possible USSF manages GPS, and they wouldn't let it die easily...its the backbone of national defense now.

Maybe I am being overly positive, but I don't see our grids collapsing in anything short of an all out "1 in a 100 people survive" apocalypse.
It is possible that individual areas would cobble together some type of power system, but as far as the present grid those Large Power Transformers (LPTs) are no joke. It takes a long time just to manufacturer them and there are only a few factories in the world equipped to do it.
LPTs are custom-designed equipment that entails a significant capital expenditure and a long lead time due to an intricate procurement and manufacturing process. Although prices vary by manufacturer and by size, an LPT can cost millions of dollars and weigh between approximately 100 and 400 tons (or between 200,000 and 800,000 pounds). The procurement and manufacturing of LPTs is a complex process that includes prequalification of manufacturers, a competitive bidding process, the purchase of raw materials, and special modes of transportation due to its size and weight.The result is the possibility of an extended lead time that could stretch beyond 20 months if the manufacturer has difficulty obtaining certain key parts or materials.Two raw materialsโ€”copper and electrical steelโ€”account for more than half of the total cost of an LPT. Special grade electrical steel is used for the core of a power transformer and is critical to the efficiency and performance of the equipment; copper is used for the windings. In recent years, the price volatility of these two commodities in the global market has affected the manufacturing condition and procurement strategy for LPTs. The average age of installed LPTs in the United States is approximately 38 to 40 years, with 70% of LPTs being 25 years or older. While the life expectancy of a power transformer varies depending on how it is used, aging power transformers are potentially subject to an increased risk of failure.
About 85 percent of new utility transformer orders have come from abroad in the past decade.Since 2010, domestic production has increased, but DOE reported in 2017 that only one U.S. manufacturer produced the special-grade electrical steel required for transformer cores.

Chinese producers have stepped in to fill the gap.

In 2010, JiangSu HuaPeng Transformer Co. delivered a 345-kilovolt large power transformer to a utility in Oklahoma, according to company marketing materials, teeing up a boomlet in U.S.-bound large power transformers, or LPTs. Just two years later, the Changzhou-based manufacturer boasted that it supported 10 percent of New York City's electricity load.

German conglomerate Siemens and Swiss manufacturing giant ABB Group are among the largest foreign transformer manufacturers to invest in factories in China.

"The actual iron core and copper coils [inside the transformers], I don't think the origin of that is any real concern," said Craig Stiegemeier, an ABB product manager for transformers. "ABB builds those in more than 50 countries around the world. There is nothing that inherently comes on the transformer that's at risk."

Instead, he indicated that components added to transformers such as digital monitoring devices and remote sensors could open the door to hacking.
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post 1633411923 03-10-2021, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted By katya422
I've personally been aware that the US electrical grid is highly vulnerable for about 15 years thanks to an astronomy professor.
this is absurd but go off i guess lol
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post 1633412173 03-10-2021, 09:53 AM
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Do you own a gun OP? If not, why the fuk not?
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post 1633412263 03-10-2021, 09:54 AM
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I have a masters in homeland security and have actually written some papers about hardening critical infrastructure including the power grid. Right now we're basically just gambling that we won't get hit by a solar flare or EMP. Hardening the electric grid could start with making it standard to bury power lines rather than have them out in the open on telephone poles. It's an increased up-front cost but would pay huge dividends in the event of a solar flare and could hugely reduce the impact of an EMP attack.
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post 1633412303 03-10-2021, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted By katya422
It is possible that individual areas would cobble together some type of power system, but as far as the present grid those Large Power Transformers (LPTs) are no joke. It takes a long time just to manufacturer them and there are only a few factories in the world equipped to do it.
yeah that makes sense; but I always assume whatever brings about physical destruction of the electrical grid is likely as catastrophic in an of itself. I could see it being targeted, though. The lead time for repair would be crazy.
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post 1633412693 03-10-2021, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted By MattyMiscer
I have a masters in homeland security and have actually written some papers about hardening critical infrastructure including the power grid. Right now we're basically just gambling that we won't get hit by a solar flare or EMP. Hardening the electric grid could start with making it standard to bury power lines rather than have them out in the open on telephone poles. It's an increased up-front cost but would pay huge dividends in the event of a solar flare and could render hugely reduce the impact of an EMP attack.
the odds of a carrington level CME is 0.7% in a given year, do you have any way of prioritizing existential risk or you just pick what sounds fun to you?
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post 1633412933 03-10-2021, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues
this is absurd but go off i guess lol
Que?

Not sure what you mean by "go off". My brother happened to put this on this morning and I thought it might make a decent thread.

And, yes, my astronomy professor back in 2004 or so talked about how the electrical grid is vulnerable to a coronal mass ejection and that it would take a long time to get the grid back up because of the size/cost/lead time for these large transformers.
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post 1633412993 03-10-2021, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted By katya422
Que?

Not sure what you mean by "go off". My brother happened to put this on this morning and I thought it might make a decent thread.

And, yes, my astronomy professor back in 2004 or so talked about how the electrical grid is vulnerable to a coronal mass ejection and that it would take a long time to get the grid back up because of the size/cost/lead time for these large transformers.
they are not likely to be in the critical path of human survivalmaxxing.

professors are gay as shiit.

lemme go back, in the event of a mass systemic (nation/continent-wide) loss of high voltage transformers, replacing them will be low on the list of priorities.
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post 1633413323 03-10-2021, 10:07 AM
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post 1633413503 03-10-2021, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues
the odds of a carrington level CME is 0.7% in a given year, do you have any way of prioritizing existential risk or you just pick what sounds fun to you?
We're kind of at a crossroads in cycles. We're due for a magnetic pole shift and we're getting pulled on by the sun and a few gas giants from both ends.
#
post 1633413613 03-10-2021, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted By jamalfudge
We're due
this is a misunderstanding of milankovitch shiit or whatever, but really common.
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post 1633413653 03-10-2021, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues
they are not likely to be in the critical path of human survivalmaxxing.

professors are gay as shiit.

lemme go back, in the event of a mass systemic (nation/continent-wide) loss of high voltage transformers, replacing them will be low on the list of priorities.
Could be right. Not sure how that fits in to the idea that this is potentially a preventable disaster?



I'm not a specialist in the field, or even a scientist. And I know that scientists don't always agree.
Solar Cycle 24 was a weak cycle, peaking with a maximum sunspot number of 116 sunspots (the average is 179). In their report in Solar Physics, the forecast is for Solar Cycle 25 to have a maximum sunspot number of somewhere between 210 and 260.

This would be one of the most active cycles ever observed. NASA projects a peak of 115 sunspots, similar to the cycle just completed.

According to the report, they believe that the sun has alternating 22-year magnetic cycles that interact to produce the well-known, nearly 11-year sunspot period as a by-product.

Forecasting sunspots is important since solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that originate from them can send disruptive bursts of magnetic energy toward Earth.

A solar flare is a sudden flash of increased brightness on the sun, usually observed near its surface and in close proximity to a sunspot group. Powerful flares are often, but not always, accompanied by a coronal mass ejection.
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post 1633413733 03-10-2021, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted By katya422
Could be right. Not sure how that fits in to the idea that this is potentially a preventable disaster?
in the short term it is not preventable, so theres that.

fwiw i know how to hunt fish and do land nav and half my home library is bushcraft.
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post 1633413793 03-10-2021, 10:11 AM
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post 1633413993 03-10-2021, 10:13 AM
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Great thread op. The answer to your question is most people are just 'basic'. They clueless and never think about these things.

I've always had plans on prepping in a few ways to avoid the unnecessary.
post 1633414303 03-10-2021, 10:16 AM
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For personal use, solar seems like almost a necessity for long term. Propane would be hoarded almost instantly.

If you went full prep mode without a concern for cost you would want to be situated near a body of moving water for hydro generation and food.
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post 1633414533 03-10-2021, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues
the odds of a carrington level CME is 0.7% in a given year, do you have any way of prioritizing existential risk or you just pick what sounds fun to you?
Things like hurricanes and snowstorms are obviously way more likely than a significant CME, but also way more localized. A major grid-down event deserves attention because of the product of likelihood and impact. Even though the likelihood in the formula is really low, the impact would be devastating. So basically as long as you can come up with values for likelihood and impact you can come up with a number to assign a level of risk to any given scenario.

But as far as my coursework I never did anything like that to rank various scenarios against each other, so I wouldn't downplay any other disaster scenarios. So pretty much, yeah, pick what sounds fun to you lol
And relief washes over me in an awesome wave
post 1633414753 03-10-2021, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted By MikeLowrrrey
Great thread op. The answer to your question is most people are just 'basic'. They clueless and never think about these things.

I've always had plans on prepping in a few ways to avoid the unnecessary.
It's almost impossible for everyone to be "prepped". There is a reason why homes were spaced so far apart during settlement and that's because to be fully self-sufficient takes a lot of land especially if you're relying on hunted/fished meat. So it really comes down to who is willing to gamble and who has the means to actually live self sufficiently.

I think best case you're set up on a river with a hydro power generator because that water flow is the only constant source of power generation available, flood basins provide good farming ground too and you can use the river for fish and lets be honest in that situation you can use it to dispose of waste/trash etc as well.

Now if you're okay not having electricity that's a little different ball game but you'll still need a sizeable amount of land.
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post 1633414813 03-10-2021, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted By Vexidi
City people are generally helpless and plan for nothing and they've been groomed by the govt to think someone will always be there to help them. Hence why when things got uncomfortable for them who's the first entity they started blaming?
So wait,

Are you saying citycels lose yet again to countrycels? When will they learn??
post 1633414843 03-10-2021, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted By MattyMiscer
So pretty much, yeah, pick what sounds fun to you lol
actually sounds fun.

i think there is a lot of "mind projection fallacy" in the world of xrisk, and then there are simple misapplications of probabilities. "we havent had a 100 year flood in 85 years so we are due".

as if a 100 year flood is a property of local precipitation and not a property of our data.
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post 1633414913 03-10-2021, 10:21 AM
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lol @ electricels

as long as you mask up, you'll save humanity
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post 1633415033 03-10-2021, 10:23 AM
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Interesting. Didnโ€™t Biden make is easier for China to access our grid or something? Canโ€™t remember specifically.
post 1633415053 03-10-2021, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted By JoshSP1985
It's almost impossible for everyone to be "prepped". There is a reason why homes were spaced so far apart during settlement and that's because to be fully self-sufficient takes a lot of land especially if you're relying on hunted/fished meat. So it really comes down to who is willing to gamble and who has the means to actually live self sufficiently.

I think best case you're set up on a river with a hydro power generator because that water flow is the only constant source of power generation available, flood basins provide good farming ground too and you can use the river for fish and lets be honest in that situation you can use it to dispose of waste/trash etc as well.

Now if you're okay not having electricity that's a little different ball game but you'll still need a sizeable amount of land.
Farming for me is out of question, I'm a citycel. I imagine it'd be good to learn for the long haul, but ultimately the best thing to do is buy emergency meal crates that last for 20 or so years.

I ran into the website some years ago. Seems like a good start
https://mypatriotsupply.com/collecti...m-food-storage
post 1633415833 03-10-2021, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted By nickh04
fuaaarrk. I remember back in 2012 when they were selling those food buckets at walmart. Everyone I talked to was prepping. People storing food and water underneath their houses, building bunkers, buying more guns and ammo.




I took it somewhat srsly and still have like 10 gallons of water, and some canned food but that would really only last me a few weeks. Would definitely like to get back on the prepping grind, because it was fun.
Storing water is dumb imo, how long does stored water last? You're better off buying water purification tables. Hell I live not to far from a river, would be very easy for me. Worse case scenario add a drop of bleach to a gallon of water
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Originally Posted By MikeLowrrrey
Storing water is dumb imo, how long does stored water last? You're better off buying water purification tables. Hell I live not to far from a river, would be very easy for me. Worse case scenario add a drop of bleach to a gallon of water
8 drops big homey and then let it chill for that contact time. idk and hour or some chit.
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post 1633416243 03-10-2021, 10:36 AM
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I have bug out bag and several months of food in case I need to stay holed up here. I currently live on an island with millions of people so if some chit were to pop off, my biggest challenge would be picking up my mom and sister and getting the fk off this rock. Though in a few years I should have a plot of land and I'll build a small house on there.

In for prepping inspiration.
Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues
in the short term it is not preventable, so theres that.

fwiw i know how to hunt fish and do land nav and half my home library is bushcraft.
Would you have any suggestions for bushcraft books?
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues
actually sounds fun.

i think there is a lot of "mind projection fallacy" in the world of xrisk, and then there are simple misapplications of probabilities. "we havent had a 100 year flood in 85 years so we are due".

as if a 100 year flood is a property of local precipitation and not a property of our data.
Yeah the whole "hundred year flood/storm/etc" came from the data suggesting a 1% chance of something happening, so everyone extrapolated that assuming a perfect distribution and claimed that if there's a 1% probability in any given year, then we should see it happen once every 100 years.

Obviously it doesn't exactly work like that, but claiming "this is a 100 year storm!" works great for the news channels
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post 1633417483 03-10-2021, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted By MikeLowrrrey
So wait,

Are you saying citycels lose yet again to countrycels? When will they learn??
Steady taking the L, they still never do
post 1633418093 03-10-2021, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted By JoshSP1985
It's almost impossible for everyone to be "prepped". There is a reason why homes were spaced so far apart during settlement and that's because to be fully self-sufficient takes a lot of land especially if you're relying on hunted/fished meat. So it really comes down to who is willing to gamble and who has the means to actually live self sufficiently.

I think best case you're set up on a river with a hydro power generator because that water flow is the only constant source of power generation available, flood basins provide good farming ground too and you can use the river for fish and lets be honest in that situation you can use it to dispose of waste/trash etc as well.

Now if you're okay not having electricity that's a little different ball game but you'll still need a sizeable amount of land.
Back at the time there was an active poster who promoted trapping over hunting. Said it was much more efficient.

Book on trapping:

https://www.amazon.com/Trappers-Bibl...VZRZBFT6CBJW17

Part of the enjoyment of reading the Little House books to my daughter when she was small was reading about the daily life from that time. I believe that there is a chapter on butchering a bear and rendering the fat? That they kept some type of fish traps when they lived on a a creek. And when they had meals they ate a lot of food...seemed that maybe mid-day was nothing much, but main meals were big meals if possible.

There was a PBS series I think that had some modern people try life as homesteaders and the men became absolutely gaunt looking from the labor and difficulty getting enough food.
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post 1633418333 03-10-2021, 10:57 AM
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#60
  1. Ratfish
  1. Ratfish
  2. Join Date: Jul 2009
  3. Location: Portland, Oregon, United States
  4. Posts: 113,850
  5. Rep Power: 576095
i lost power from sunday morning until friday evening during our ice storm a few weeks ago and let me tell you...


...i was totally fine because i have a wood stove and a big shed filled with wood

my next door neighbor was fukked lol

their internal house temps must've been close to freezing the entire time

my other next door neighbor had power after 1 day


what i became keenly aware of was that i hated the neighbor with power and the one without heat hated me


the most important prepping decision is choosing your location, far away from other people (or at the very least, with favorable demographics)

if people see lights on in your house or smoke from your flue when chit goes bad for a really long time, they're gonna come for you

half the population thinks that wealth should be redistributed from the productive to the superfluous eaters under normal conditions, so just imagine what they're gonna do if cold, hungry and thirsty
Make Europe Germany Again
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