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» Whats going to happen with the next real estate bubble pop?
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post 1637175313 04-26-2021, 10:19 PM
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Originally Posted By Max7771
I’m assuming your talking about the stock market? I’ve been seeing so much propaganda trying to convince normies to put there money into stocks I just know it’s gonna collapse soon
well the stock market has made sense tbh. Everything has, and following the logic that got us here leads us to a cooled off market in the whole as everything becomes more expensive. Demand will fall as normies stop receiving govt checks and that will fuk everything.
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post 1637175423 04-26-2021, 10:22 PM
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I guess time will tell boyos.
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post 1637176473 04-26-2021, 10:46 PM
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Scary stuff, guys
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post 1637176803 04-26-2021, 10:52 PM
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Only a total moran would buy a house and land in desirable city and area when they could buy like 8 bitcoins instead. Or better yet, huge amounts of dodgecoin, just swim in dodge like scrooge mcduck. Pffft, real estates for incels braaaaah
post 1637187103 04-27-2021, 05:33 AM
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Dave Ramsey is saying that even with these absurd housing prices and this ridiculous market, if you don’t buy now you will likely never be able to because prices are only going to continually increase maybe with flat lines here and there and maybe some small dips when things slow but 2008 will never happen again. Even IF it does (unlikely) the rich will swoop in with cash and the working class will be screwed either way. Also definitely do not sell right now if it is your only home and you do not have another home already secured.

I’ll take advice from Dave Ramsey before listening to random gay fear mongering Indians
post 1637188063 04-27-2021, 05:57 AM
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#36
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If there’s a real estate bubble pop the same thing will happen as does every time

People who bought at the peak and overextended themselves will panic and have to take a loss

Some buyers will think that a 20% “correction” positions them to get a “bargain” conveniently ignoring the fact that prices doubled in the last decade. If they managed to bag a distressed sale, good for them.

Long term investors an developers for whom real estate is minimum 3-4 year investment and who bought on fundamentals will shrug and wait until the market recovers and continue as normal

People who own their houses to live in and/or rent will probably pay no attention either way because short term fluctuations mean literally nothing to them.

So in summary, not much at all.
post 1637188223 04-27-2021, 05:59 AM
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Originally Posted By KTMbraaap
Dave Ramsey is saying that even with these absurd housing prices and this ridiculous market, if you don’t buy now you will likely never be able to because prices are only going to continually increase maybe with flat lines here and there and maybe some small dips when things slow but 2008 will never happen again. Even IF it does (unlikely) the rich will swoop in with cash and the working class will be screwed either way. Also definitely do not sell right now if it is your only home and you do not have another home already secured.

I’ll take advice from Dave Ramsey before listening to random gay fear mongering Indians
>Says prices will never come down and you'll never get a house
>accuses everyone of fear mongering

Lmao

The value of a house requires support and it's not going to be sustained long term or even within a few years. Realize what you're saying. You're effectively claiming covid home panic buying had no effect on home prices which is completely ludicrous.
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post 1637189693 04-27-2021, 06:29 AM
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#38
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Originally Posted By chino3
To anyone thinking about building home, 90% of the time it costs a substantial amount more to build yourself vs buy. Now throw in the INSANE increase in cost of materials... well... just LOL
Yeah, but I'm not looking to build a McMansion in a major metro. More like this outside of one (aka: small home w/low tax and insurance built for cash):



https://archedcabins.com/kit-sizes-p...le-quotes.html

Playing with the idea of added height by securing it to an earthbag wall.
Originally Posted By chalup
I’m doing it myself with a 2 man crew I’ve known my entire life so situation is different. Can knock out a 1000sq foot cabin in 2 months. I’ll have to pay an electrician. But yes, if you don’t have the knowledge then don’t build it yourself. Wood is up a lot as well but not horrible.
Godspeed. Not a speculator or a young miscer. I think my options are:

- stay in current house and get a room mate; hope I can keep up with inflation and taxes

- sell house; invest proceeds and rent a room or live in some type of vehicle

- sell house; invest in small multi-family like a duplex or quad and live in one unit while renting out the rest

- sell; try to find cheap land and build some kind of shelter + invest as much as possible

I can't do anything about inflation, my age and debt/asset situation, the RE market, etc. Prefer to at least have the option to sleep indoors.
Originally Posted By FA*******
What scares me is that markets are looking super frothy at the same time that the Fed is maxxed. If the money printer has a limit, creating 25% of all the dollars in existence in one year is what it looks like. So if this market blows, they won't be able to go super QE mode and save it.

More likely than not, Idon'tthink this blows until they raise rates. Bubbles tend to pop when money stops rushing in, and the Fed is putting in trillions of dollars that currently have nowhere else to go besides into assets. That being said, bubbles are unstable and can be pricked at any time for reasons that only look clear in hindsight. That's why timing them's such a bich.

Long term, I think the most likely scenario will be that the Fed is forced into a modest rate raise by about Christmas '22 when the negative effects of hyper-inflation become unavoidable. Speculators will freak the fuk out and things will crash, but it will adjust and recover in like a year when people realize that the Fed put/money printer is still fundamentally in place, just at like a point higher rate.

But I could see the current housing and stock markets popping anywhere within 6-18 months just on natural causes, and that would actually be worse if we had like a 20%-30% pullback that we couldn't print our way out of. That would bring the kind of long, deep, and fundamental recession that could change our entire global economy and how nations use the money printer, just like how '08 popularized it.

What I DON'T see is 20% growth in stocks and housing continuing for several years. Do you even rule of 70, brahs. That's just not a remotely sustainable rate.
Blah.
Originally Posted By KTMbraaap
Dave Ramsey is saying that even with these absurd housing prices and this ridiculous market, if you don’t buy now you will likely never be able to because prices are only going to continually increase maybe with flat lines here and there and maybe some small dips when things slow but 2008 will never happen again. Even IF it does (unlikely) the rich will swoop in with cash and the working class will be screwed either way. Also definitely do not sell right now if it is your only home and you do not have another home already secured.

I’ll take advice from Dave Ramsey before listening to random gay fear mongering Indians
Originally Posted By rectifryer
>Says prices will never come down and you'll never get a house
>accuses everyone of fear mongering

Lmao

The value of a house requires support and it's not going to be sustained long term or even within a few years. Realize what you're saying. You're effectively claiming covid home panic buying had no effect on home prices which is completely ludicrous.
value = | = prices

As far as how people experience it inflation + speculation could keep prices artificially high in a climate of low wages.
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post 1637199563 04-27-2021, 09:02 AM
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Originally Posted By jn677
Yes it does, but it has very little to do with material cost. The developer building a house is probably paying most of the guys anywhere from 15-30 an hour. When you build yourself you're dealing pretty much exclusively with subcontractors who will make anywhere from 60-150 an hour. No wonder your cost per square foot is probably more than double.
Uh, you should read my post again. I threw in the cost of materials as just something extra on top of the disparity of costs between private and corp building. The cost of materials prior to the increase in what we've seen recently was indeed a factor, albeit a small one but not a negligible one neither.
Originally Posted By chalup
they are pretty expensive. It was cheap before though, so not crazy expensive.
Lumber has increased 280% since this time last year...
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post 1637199993 04-27-2021, 09:08 AM
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I don’t see this being anywhere close to the 08 housing bust
Lending environment isn’t comparable

This is due to shortage of inventory and supplies, sure , once those come back in line with historical averages, prices will come down, but I don’t see it popping
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post 1637200563 04-27-2021, 09:15 AM
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Didn't read the whole thread but back in 08 they would give out loans to anybody with a heartbeat. Now they screen up the ass to insure themselves that the person taking the loan has some type of a steady job/income

House prices are going up and so is material to build them.
Go to home depot and look at lumber you Mongols. 6-9$ a 2x4 that is insane. It's called supply and demand.
A decent house in today's market might stay on the market for a week.

I got mine paid off not selling.
Good luck renting paying someone else their mortgage, and in 20 years still being in the same position.

Also if houses go down so will land, not sure why you are saying buy land now
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post 1637201173 04-27-2021, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted By chino3
To anyone thinking about building home, 90% of the time it costs a substantial amount more to build yourself vs buy. Now throw in the INSANE increase in cost of materials... well... just LOL
We signed our papers on our build back in October so our price is locked in with our builder. Material costs, mostly lumber, have sky-rocketed obviously. Our home will be done in 3 months and will be valued about $30,000.00 more than we paid.
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post 1637201423 04-27-2021, 09:26 AM
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When you say real estate you need to elaborate on what you're talking about or you sound like a total retard.


Houses
Apartment complexes
Condos
Commercial
Industrial
Farm land

They are all different markets. Just because housing crashes doesn't mean apartment complexes suffer. Sometimes they do better because all those people that lost houses are now renters.
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post 1637201853 04-27-2021, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted By KTMbraaap
Dave Ramsey is saying that even with these absurd housing prices and this ridiculous market, if you don’t buy now you will likely never be able to because prices are only going to continually increase maybe with flat lines here and there and maybe some small dips when things slow but 2008 will never happen again. Even IF it does (unlikely) the rich will swoop in with cash and the working class will be screwed either way. Also definitely do not sell right now if it is your only home and you do not have another home already secured.

I’ll take advice from Dave Ramsey before listening to random gay fear mongering Indians
I said sell for double your houses price, and then buy. OR refinance your house accordingly. You people missed my entire point. My point is we have people ABUSING these absurd rates to buy two or three houses, refinance their house and buy a new car, etc ,etc. Forclosures are coming after forbearance ends. People lose jobs, they will lose their 3 houses.
post 1637201923 04-27-2021, 09:32 AM
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#45
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Originally Posted By swoleyo
When you say real estate you need to elaborate on what you're talking about or you sound like a total retard.


Houses
Apartment complexes
Condos
Commercial

They are all different markets. Just because housing crashes doesn't mean apartment complexes suffer. Sometimes they do better because all those people that lost houses are now renters.
The assumption ITT is single family houses, but yeah, commercial is big fukked both short and long term. BRB cruising along the big office parks in San Diego (Golden Triangle). BRB 100% of buildings have a "Space for Lease" sign out front.

It'd be fun to gut those and turn them into housing, but my understanding are that the building codes are too different for that to work.
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post 1637203183 04-27-2021, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted By FA*******
The assumption ITT is single family houses, but yeah, commercial is big fukked both short and long term. BRB cruising along the big office parks in San Diego (Golden Triangle). BRB 100% of buildings have a "Space for Lease" sign out front.

It'd be fun to gut those and turn them into housing, but my understanding are that the building codes are too different for that to work.
you would have different building codes as well as commercial vs residential zoning in effect.

I am really unsure what will happen with commercial real estate, and go back and forth with it:

- B&M was dying before covid, but this whole thing has really thrown gas on the fire
- WeWork may actually not only be viable but a saving grace for the industry
- the chinese will continue to gobble up properties as they have done for decades. They not only don't care about getting tenants, they actually prefer it in some cases. They treat properties as a savings account, free from the clutches of CCP.
Originally Posted By chalup
I said sell for double your houses price, and then buy. OR refinance your house accordingly. You people missed my entire point. My point is we have people ABUSING these absurd rates to buy two or three houses, refinance their house and buy a new car, etc ,etc. Forclosures are coming after forbearance ends. People lose jobs, they will lose their 3 houses.
people who are qualifying to get multiple homes are the group most likely to have the knowledge of how to balance things if chit hits the fan, not to mention the least likely to get laid off and not find work. Getting a foreclosure isn't the only course of action lol.

Long term rentals, airbnb, or selling at whatever the market is, are all far more viable than just walking away and destroying your credit.

You keep trying to use the 08 crash as a basis for your fear mongering, and it's ridiculous. Even if people are "over extending themselves" the banks have determined that through their income and existing asset leverage they are apt candidates for a loan. 08 we had sub prime mortgages, predatory loan practices, and next to zero qualifying standards.

You gotta knock this chit off. There are some dumb miscers that will think you actually know what you're talking about and will believe you, and that's frightening
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post 1637203713 04-27-2021, 09:55 AM
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#47
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Fed cant drop interest rates so it'll be bad.
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