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Forum » People just aren't selling their homes [real estate]
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Thread: People just aren't selling their homes [real estate]

post 1646939923 09-13-2021, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted By flexnation⏩
Licensed agent and RE investor here. Been telling all my clients for the last year and a half to not sell if they can afford to/want to rent it out to keep their current home and purchase a new one. Im extremely bullish on single family houses right now. Like, you're a potato if you're in a position where you can buy a new home and decide to sell your old one or any real estate for that matter unless you're going to 1031 into something else
Do you have a data source for total listings per year? Not active listings, but total.
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post 1646939983 09-13-2021, 10:09 AM
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#32
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Average Dallas county home on market is 8 days in august 2021. August 2019 was 21.

Months of supply of homes in Dallas county is 1.4. August 2019 was 3.7.

Not much inventory since everything is getting snatched up quick
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post 1646940533 09-13-2021, 10:20 AM
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seems about right op

stats from my market

new listings
aug. 2020, 9464
aug. 2021, 9179

months supply
aug. 2020, 1.4
aug. 2021, .8

avg purchase price
aug. 2020, $445k
aug. 2021, $515k

days on market,
aug. 2020, 48
aug. 2021, 7
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post 1646940663 09-13-2021, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted By friesbruh⏩
seems about right op

stats from my market

new listings
aug. 2020, 9464
aug. 2021, 9179

months supply
aug. 2020, 1.4
aug. 2021, .8

avg purchase price
aug. 2020, $445k
aug. 2021, $515k

days on market,
aug. 2020, 48
aug. 2021, 7
Yes it correlates but I have no direct stats on total listings. Total listings is useful because its not based on temporal factors like "time to sell". Its a true fundamental indicator but it is never represented. Industry likes to "hide the ball."
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post 1646940803 09-13-2021, 10:27 AM
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What goes up, must come down. Wait your turn fellas, you will be able to pounce and get a house for cheap sooner or later.
post 1646940893 09-13-2021, 10:29 AM
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Buddy of mine got relocated by his work to Delaware and said it was extremely hard to find a place to rent.
Said he spent a month in a hotel looking.

Chits getting crazy
post 1646940973 09-13-2021, 10:32 AM
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If you didn’t buy before all of this you SOL. Property is for the well off and rich now.

My whole generation is gonna be a bunch of rentcel peasants and van dwellers


Biden’s America
post 1646941013 09-13-2021, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted By Inger2⏩
What goes up, must come down. Wait your turn fellas, you will be able to pounce and get a house for cheap sooner or later.
Would be true if it was just normal people buying houses to live in, but now we have massive hedge funds and corporations with billions of dollars buying up large swathes of homes in every city. Rentcell future for everyone is the plan.
post 1646941083 09-13-2021, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted By Cheeky*******⏩
Buddy of mine got relocated by his work to Delaware and said it was extremely hard to find a place to rent.
Said he spent a month in a hotel looking.

Chits getting crazy
Took me 9 months to find my own place ded fkn srs. Move-in in two weeks.

One month is child’s play.
post 1646941283 09-13-2021, 10:37 AM
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OP it is also possible that a lot of people are holding on to their current property because they can't pass the credit check to get another mortgage due to pandemic stuff that has reduced their income or assets. A lot of small businesses got wrecked while the big guys were allowed to keep rolling.

I know TX continues to be insane, tiny old houses in Fredicksburg listed for $500K to $1M that would have been $70K to $200K not that long ago. Only listings that are not crazy are still 3X to 4X historical pricing- talking unimproved rural lots w/no internet service that have gone from $4K to $15K.
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post 1646941403 09-13-2021, 10:40 AM
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i thought miscers buy high and sell low
post 1646941663 09-13-2021, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted By sennas⏩
Would be true if it was just normal people buying houses to live in, but now we have massive hedge funds and corporations with billions of dollars buying up large swathes of homes in every city. Rentcell future for everyone is the plan.
Yes true, but many home owners that have bought their house are going to pass away soon. Chances are their sons/daughters will want to sell the place and make money. Just wait for the boomers to perish.
post 1646941823 09-13-2021, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted By sennas⏩
Would be true if it was just normal people buying houses to live in, but now we have massive hedge funds and corporations with billions of dollars buying up large swathes of homes in every city. Rentcell future for everyone is the plan.
They are buying a percentage of the homes in America and at the same time new home builds are going up exponentially, eventually these trends will converge
post 1646941893 09-13-2021, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted By Inger2⏩
Yes true, but many home owners that have bought their house are going to pass away soon. Chances are their sons/daughters will want to sell the place and make money. Just wait for the boomers to perish.
The only way this doesn’t happen is EU levels of immigration.
Either the young generation is poor and continues living with parents thus capping demand, or parents/boomers downsize/pass away and inventory ticks up bigly. 5-10 year out look
post 1646944183 09-13-2021, 11:25 AM
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWLISCOUUS

Listings down 20-30%. There are just 20-30% less homes hitting market in the first place.

This is not a boom!


In contrast, industry tries to portray this data like this:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-...listings-fall/



that just completely contradicts the FRED-realtor.com data!
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post 1646944633 09-13-2021, 11:33 AM
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#46
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Do you have a data source for total listings per year? Not active listings, but total.
I can pull it up when Im back at the hotel(traveling). I can get an accurate number for Oregon, specifically the Portland metro area. Nationwide, I use redfin but I'm not sure how accurate it is
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post 1646945083 09-13-2021, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted By flexnation⏩
I can pull it up when Im back at the hotel(traveling). I can get an accurate number for Oregon, specifically the Portland metro area. Nationwide, I use redfin but I'm not sure how accurate it is
I noticed redfin does a 4week rolling average which completely eliminates any information that can be gathered lol

They used that to make 2019 new listings look like 2021's when it was ~25% higher in seasonal peaks which matters a lot for clearing demand.
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post 1646945723 09-13-2021, 11:54 AM
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#48
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
OP it is also possible that a lot of people are holding on to their current property because they can't pass the credit check to get another mortgage due to pandemic stuff that has reduced their income or assets. A lot of small businesses got wrecked while the big guys were allowed to keep rolling.

I know TX continues to be insane, tiny old houses in Fredicksburg listed for $500K to $1M that would have been $70K to $200K not that long ago. Only listings that are not crazy are still 3X to 4X historical pricing- talking unimproved rural lots w/no internet service that have gone from $4K to $15K.
Forbearance didn't affect your credit, so I don't see how that would happen. Also, the houses are worth much more than what people likely owe, so they won't have an issue selling.

The data shows that people just aren't selling. I wonder if some will just hold until foreclosure anyways since the market is so expensive but all in all most homeowners found jobs from what I understand.

Undeveloped land in the middle of nowhere but isn't complete swamp is about 100k/acre here.
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post 1646970073 09-13-2021, 06:42 PM
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Primetime bump
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post 1646970773 09-13-2021, 06:56 PM
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Another reason for people not selling:

Biden literally increasing taxes and fooking when the 1031 exchange.

Just another reason to fuk things up, but NOT the only thing
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post 1646971033 09-13-2021, 06:58 PM
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Passed on buying early on in Covid thinking this couldn't continue and here we are. Strong goof.
post 1646971613 09-13-2021, 07:07 PM
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bought my house for 180k little over a year ago and its listed at 250k.. easy money right there
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post 1646971993 09-13-2021, 07:14 PM
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there's gotta be foreclosures at some point.
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post 1646972203 09-13-2021, 07:18 PM
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Originally Posted By GordonXXX⏩
wait until interest rates rise. law of life - what goes up must come down. reversion to the mean.
Interest rates only create risk for people who are in debt.

For everyone else it’s opportunity

If you want to talk risk, what about hyperinflation
post 1646972233 09-13-2021, 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Forbearance didn't affect your credit, so I don't see how that would happen. Also, the houses are worth much more than what people likely owe, so they won't have an issue selling.

The data shows that people just aren't selling. I wonder if some will just hold until foreclosure anyways since the market is so expensive but all in all most homeowners found jobs from what I understand.

Undeveloped land in the middle of nowhere but isn't complete swamp is about 100k/acre here.
Which state? Or should I say country?

Wasn't really thinking about credit score, more about income to debt.

- income dropped/maybe assets too [closed business]
- house value is higher, but so are property taxes and insurance
- sell your place > have to pay the same or more monthly for another home + that is IF your current income will still support the payment

Maybe you have been managing to make your payment somehow w/stimulus or unemployment that is ending, but it could be taking the majority of your income.

Remember the threads with the big lines of cars waiting to get free food from food banks? Miscers chatting about how many of the cars were newer/nicer? Just speculating that though there were some "work from home, cut expenses" winners there were also "loss of income, loss of business" losers.

cliffs:I think some people are carrying higher house payments than their present income would qualify them to take on, but they don't see any less expensive alternatives.
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post 1646972373 09-13-2021, 07:21 PM
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If you can stand to live in a 1 BR condo you can get a pretty good deal

covidcels and investors afraid to buy.. but those dastardly HOA fees. I've seen from 120-400 dollars.
post 1646972473 09-13-2021, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/u...mentsContainer

CLIFFS:

Inventory down to 1/2 everywhere nationally...even california/new york

Overall sales down compared to previous years pre pandemic

Less listings in total, by 1/2....half the houses that would have hit the market in a time like 2018 are never being put up for sale

NYT conclusion: Boomers are too afraid of covid to let people in their house to sell it

rectifryer conclusion: this explains the imbalance of migration we're seeing from urban to rural areas but no increase in inventory in the urban areas to keep the market in check. There is an exodus, but it is NOT as significant as the fact potential sellers are waiting.

In summary, there is a mutual backlog of buyers and sellers. Buying right now is not a good move. Biden is keeping the real estate market up and thus a significant portion of the wall st economy up by harboring covid fears. Regressing in covid fear would crash internet commerce and housing by this mechanism...and he won't have that before mid-terms. Although, of course that's really a lost battle at this point.
Bound to happen most people have already sold and moved if not more then once and prices can't go up for ever everybody that paid 50k over on a house already almost 100k overvalued are about to get REKT ded FOOKING srs.

BRB nobody buying HOUSES sit on the market reduce price lowers COMMUNITY home value just LOL.
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post 1646972603 09-13-2021, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
If you can stand to live in a 1 BR condo you can get a pretty good deal

covidcels and investors afraid to buy.. but those dastardly HOA fees. I've seen from 120-400 dollars.
I'm at 250 I believe for HOA not bad BUT they cover roof and landscaping and a few other things would be nice if they did a slightly better job but no big deal. KEEPS the poors OUT for the most part. Townhouse though PRIVATE entrance ATTACHED garage with PRIVATE entrance patio and balcony plus basement and upstairs DED fooking SRS.
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post 1646972763 09-13-2021, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted By Realclout⏩
Bound to happen most people have already sold and moved if not more then once and prices can't go up for ever everybody that paid 50k over on a house already almost 100k overvalued are about to get REKT ded FOOKING srs.

BRB nobody buying HOUSES sit on the market reduce price lowers COMMUNITY home value just LOL.
Which brings the question, I've seen a lot of houses sitting that aren't pristine and usually they drop 10k for every month they sit

Are these sellers delusional or stubborn? I'd assume some investors shot them a fair deal over 2-3 month period
post 1646972813 09-13-2021, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
If you can stand to live in a 1 BR condo you can get a pretty good deal

covidcels and investors afraid to buy.. but those dastardly HOA fees. I've seen from 120-400 dollars.
400 is on the lower side for SoCal lmao

Average is 500-700$ a month hoa
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