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Forum » It's over for "I'll be waiting with cash for the housing market to crash-cels"
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Thread: It's over for "I'll be waiting with cash for the housing market to crash-cels"

post 1657202743 03-02-2022, 11:19 AM
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At this point since I don't own a home, I'm tempted to just buy land and have a tiny home or cabin built with what I have saved. As a single guy with no kids, I'm not getting a mortgage for a 300-400k house. I'd rather live in a small place, have a virtually nothing cost of living (in comparison to a mortgage) and just invest most of my pay.
post 1657202863 03-02-2022, 11:21 AM
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#32
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Originally Posted By twovalvekid⏩
Paying off a house with say....150K cash in your pocket....is ridiculous at this stage. Or putting extra every month to pay it off.

That 150k or "extra" could be put in an account to invest and actually make money on.

Dumping 6 figures of cash to put....say...500 bucks a month in your pocket...is just fukking stupid. Put that money into stonks and forget about it and enjoy your 7% (on average) returnon even a junk index fund that mimics the S&P 500.
Paying off house will always be - hands down - the best investment you can make. It's unpopular everyone thinks playing the market is the best option. Nothing is better than never having to make a mortgage payment again. If I had the option with a ton of cash to invest, or pay off my mortgage - I would pick the latter every time.

Housing always appreciates in value if you live in a decent area.

I'm bolding the part that you mention that your stocks make "on average" 7% (which is fair). Since it's an average, it has higher volatility. Housing will never be that volatile.

Even when the housing market crashes - so does the market. However, not having a mortgage you see no immediate change in your actual life.
Originally Posted By EDcellent⏩
At this point since I don't own a home, I'm tempted to just buy land and have a tiny home or cabin built with what I have saved. As a single guy with no kids, I'm not getting a mortgage for a 300-400k house. I'd rather live in a small place, have a virtually nothing cost of living (in comparison to a mortgage) and just invest most of my pay.
This is what people should be doing. The difference in investing vs. paying off mortgage aggressively is marginal. Your investment for retirement is later, but you fully invest all additional income + payments made to mortgage.

Most people lose 15%+ of their income on mortgage alone.
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post 1657202973 03-02-2022, 11:23 AM
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lmao, excellent thread title
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post 1657203203 03-02-2022, 11:26 AM
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Thanks for the reminder to make that double payment on my Mortgage today......

Ya know.....The one that I locked in at 2.79% on the house I bought 2 years ago, that's worth $130k more now.
post 1657203213 03-02-2022, 11:26 AM
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Lmao on spread


Unfortunately I’m only a single property ownercel

Just lol @ me
watchout your comments boyo ↓
post 1657203253 03-02-2022, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
Paying off house will always be - hands down - the best investment you can make. It's unpopular everyone thinks playing the market is the best option. Nothing is better than never having to make a mortgage payment again. If I had the option with a ton of cash to invest, or pay off my mortgage - I would pick the latter every time.

Housing always appreciates in value if you live in a decent area.

I'm bolding the part that you mention that your stocks make "on average" 7% (which is fair). Since it's an average, it has higher volatility. Housing will never be that volatile.

Even when the housing market crashes - so does the market. However, not having a mortgage you see no immediate change in your actual life.



This is what people should be doing. The difference in investing vs. paying off mortgage aggressively is marginal. Your investment for retirement is later, but you fully invest all additional income + payments made to mortgage.

Most people lose 15%+ of their income on mortgage alone.
There's a disconnect in your logic... paying off a mortgage has nothing to do with house prices. You are talking about "housing always appreciating in value", "even when the housing market crashes", etc... but the argument of mortgage vs. cash has nothing to do with house prices, only interest rates and expected stock market returns. In this case, I agree with twovalvekid: the stock market will on average return a greater APY (8-10% long-term historical average) than the interest rate on your mortgage (2-3% right now)

You two should be arguing something entirely different... should someone rent forever and invest their $50-100k downpayment in the stock market, or should they buy a house with a 30-year mortgage?
post 1657203413 03-02-2022, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted By PermaBulk610⏩
To add to my previous post, I feel beyond blessed to have been able to purchase my home in 2013, which has doubled in value since I bought it. Seriously, I can sell it for 100% more than what I paid for it less than 10 years ago, maybe more.

Then what? Lol rent an apartment while I sit on tons of cash waiting for my dream home to come available at an affordable price? Nah, I'll just hang onto my great investment.
Not worth chit till you sell
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post 1657203463 03-02-2022, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted By bsmit107⏩
Thanks for the reminder to make that double payment on my Mortgage today......

Ya know.....The one that I locked in at 2.79% on the house I bought 2 years ago, that's worth $130k more now.
Not worth chit till you sell it
Future P.A in progress
We're all gonna make it

sleep tight pupper
post 1657203483 03-02-2022, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
Paying off house will always be - hands down - the best investment you can make. It's unpopular everyone thinks playing the market is the best option. Nothing is better than never having to make a mortgage payment again. If I had the option with a ton of cash to invest, or pay off my mortgage - I would pick the latter every time.

Housing always appreciates in value if you live in a decent area.

I'm bolding the part that you mention that your stocks make "on average" 7% (which is fair). Since it's an average, it has higher volatility. Housing will never be that volatile.

Even when the housing market crashes - so does the market. However, not having a mortgage you see no immediate change in your actual life.



This is what people should be doing. The difference in investing vs. paying off mortgage aggressively is marginal. Your investment for retirement is later, but you fully invest all additional income + payments made to mortgage.

Most people lose 15%+ of their income on mortgage alone.
Youre missing the point, it's about the end game and putting the most amount of money in your pocket and using others money (i.e. the bank) to do it.

So ill make the example personal to me. If youre picking up what im putting down.

Lets say you recently purchased a home for around 280K, put 20% down, so i owe roughly 220K. (this is american dollars, not police state canuck bux, for reference)

Mortgage breakdown is as follows:
Principal/interest: ~$950/mo
Escrow (taxes/insurance): ~$370

So...if i come off $220,000 to pay this house off, im going to put $950/mo in my pocket. The $370 will ALWAYS be there, and if anything forever increase.

So effectively, i'd put $950/mo in my pocket if i paid it off. But now, i have zero capital. So i'd have to spend time saving that 220K again.

Or.

If i just stuck that 220 in an index fund making 7% on average a year with no work...thats almost 1300/mo using rough math. And it continues to compound in gains. Also, if you do a little hw your self you can constantly beat that 7% (which i have). Then put even more money in your pocket. All of this using the banks money, not yours. The bigger your egg the more $$ you will make.

So no, im not coming off 200+K to put LESS money in my pocket.
Originally Posted By SouthDakotaBrah⏩
You two should be arguing something entirely different... should someone rent forever and invest their $50-100k downpayment in the stock market, or should they buy a house with a 30-year mortgage?
This is a solid thought experiment too. And one i've always had with myself. For me, i'd rather have an assett instead of rent. More so "diversifying" in a way if you think about it. Stocks, and real estate.
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post 1657203563 03-02-2022, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted By EDcellent⏩
At this point since I don't own a home, I'm tempted to just buy land and have a tiny home or cabin built with what I have saved. As a single guy with no kids, I'm not getting a mortgage for a 300-400k house. I'd rather live in a small place, have a virtually nothing cost of living (in comparison to a mortgage) and just invest most of my pay.
Sounds like a wise idea, srs.
post 1657203573 03-02-2022, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
Paying off house will always be - hands down - the best investment you can make. It's unpopular everyone thinks playing the market is the best option. Nothing is better than never having to make a mortgage payment again. If I had the option with a ton of cash to invest, or pay off my mortgage - I would pick the latter every time.

Housing always appreciates in value if you live in a decent area.

I'm bolding the part that you mention that your stocks make "on average" 7% (which is fair). Since it's an average, it has higher volatility. Housing will never be that volatile.

Even when the housing market crashes - so does the market. However, not having a mortgage you see no immediate change in your actual life.



This is what people should be doing. The difference in investing vs. paying off mortgage aggressively is marginal. Your investment for retirement is later, but you fully invest all additional income + payments made to mortgage.

Most people lose 15%+ of their income on mortgage alone.
What you are arguing is essentially the value of "peace of mind".

In financial terms its ALWAYS bad to pay off your mortgage if you had $100k laying around, there are a million better things you could do with that money to actually earn a return. If you dump it in the house not only do you face the opportunity cost of having not made another investment with that money, but then even worse, all the money that's now in your house is "dead" money, as in, it's not liquid, you can't do anything unless you either A) Sell the house, or B) take out a HELOC on the house, which is just a line of credit against your equity that you'd end up paying an interest rate on anyway.

So when all is said and done, why on earth would you want to take a $100k lump sum and turn liquid money into dead money?
post 1657203633 03-02-2022, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted By MiamiLife305⏩
Not worth chit till you sell
Obviously. But knowing my mortgage is 1k less than what it would be if I bought the same house today is very reassuring.
post 1657203683 03-02-2022, 11:35 AM
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#43
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Originally Posted By monster0ultra⏩
Mortgage rate should be compared against US govt bond rates. Risk free return vs almost risk free return.

Assuming the market will always return 8%-10% is insanity. Ask the Japanese how that worked out.

Agreed on mortgage rate versus US Govt bond rate, and I would never invest my money in either (except for a downpayment on a mortgage + monthly payments) due to terribly low yield

I understand you can time the market terribly such as the case of Japan in 1989 (which is basically the worst you can possible time the market, just bad luck) but I'm still taking the risk and investing in the US market (which has returned 8-10% over the past ~50 years, understandably a Japan scenario can happen but its still worth it) versus putting my money into a guaranteed 2.7% APY (which, remember, is negative after adjusting for inflation)
post 1657203783 03-02-2022, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted By MiamiLife305⏩
Not worth chit till you sell
Originally Posted By MiamiLife305⏩
Not worth chit till you sell it
*he types though a stream of tears that are now causing the ink on his rent check to run. There is no way his landlord will accept a check in this condition, but does he have more checks in his tattered check book? He can't remember if he used his last one for rent, or was it for a pack of hot dogs - no buns though, he says it's because he doesn't do carbs, but he knows the extra indulgence isn't worth the possibility of a returned check.*
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1657204393 03-02-2022, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted By twovalvekid⏩
I'd rather use someone else's money and keep the hundreds of thousands of dollars in my pocket for other investments to make more money on...

But if you want to come off....6 figures....to put a few hundo in your pocket a month instead of investing...thats none of my business.
A few hundred? You should have an extra $1200 in your pockets after paying off your house. Depends on what your mortgage was and property tax.

Not to mention you can quit your job any time.
post 1657204503 03-02-2022, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted By MikeLowrrrey⏩
A few hundred? You should have an extra $1200 in your pockets after paying off your house. Depends on what your mortgage was and property tax.

Not to mention you can quit your job any time.
See above.
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post 1657204943 03-02-2022, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted By EDcellent⏩
At this point since I don't own a home, I'm tempted to just buy land and have a tiny home or cabin built with what I have saved. As a single guy with no kids, I'm not getting a mortgage for a 300-400k house. I'd rather live in a small place, have a virtually nothing cost of living (in comparison to a mortgage) and just invest most of my pay.
This is a nice idea, except there's really no places to live for cheap. I'd love a smal bare minimum place for $500/month, but those days are long gone.
post 1657205233 03-02-2022, 12:07 PM
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Crashes only happen when no one is "ready" for it....

If everyone was sitting on $200k of cash in 2007, the market never would have collapsed.

We are in the golden age of economic prosperity RN.
post 1657205543 03-02-2022, 12:10 PM
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lol at chino shiit posting



Reflexivity

Buyers don't base their decisions on reality, but rather on their perceptions of reality instead.

The actions that result from these perceptions have an impact on reality, or fundamentals, which then affects investors' perceptions and thus prices.

The process is self-reinforcing and tends toward disequilibrium, causing prices to become increasingly detached from reality.




$6 gallon gas is going to wreck everything.
post 1657206543 03-02-2022, 12:26 PM
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they'll be waiting for the rest of their lives while their 'cash' losses value every year in the bank.
post 1657207133 03-02-2022, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
lol at chino shiit posting



Reflexivity

Buyers don't base their decisions on reality, but rather on their perceptions of reality instead.

The actions that result from these perceptions have an impact on reality, or fundamentals, which then affects investors' perceptions and thus prices.

The process is self-reinforcing and tends toward disequilibrium, causing prices to become increasingly detached from reality.




$6 gallon gas is going to wreck everything.
you could have just said "demand" and saved yourself some time lol
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1657207533 03-02-2022, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted By CulturalDecay⏩
What you are arguing is essentially the value of "peace of mind".

In financial terms its ALWAYS bad to pay off your mortgage if you had $100k laying around, there are a million better things you could do with that money to actually earn a return. If you dump it in the house not only do you face the opportunity cost of having not made another investment with that money, but then even worse, all the money that's now in your house is "dead" money, as in, it's not liquid, you can't do anything unless you either A) Sell the house, or B) take out a HELOC on the house, which is just a line of credit against your equity that you'd end up paying an interest rate on anyway.

So when all is said and done, why on earth would you want to take a $100k lump sum and turn liquid money into dead money?
Please list some examples that are better than paying off a mortgage.
post 1657207733 03-02-2022, 12:48 PM
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it will come down again not covid level but charts don't lie

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

post 1657207773 03-02-2022, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted By Jkm94⏩
Please list some examples that are better than paying off a mortgage.
putting the money in VOO
post 1657208023 03-02-2022, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted By HMFIC_BROWSIN⏩
Crashes only happen when no one is "ready" for it....

If everyone was sitting on $200k of cash in 2007, the market never would have collapsed.

We are in the golden age of economic prosperity RN.
Honestly outside of the misc, it seems like no one is

But there’s a problem few people here or in normiecel land consider



10/10 oofs
Coincel
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post 1657208853 03-02-2022, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted By ThatGuy950⏩
Honestly outside of the misc, it seems like no one is

But there’s a problem few people here or in normiecel land consider



10/10 oofs
How much cash did the fed add again? Like 100% more right? That doesn't account for a 400% increase in liquid supply.

Looks like a lot of people pulled out of investments as well but the stock market doesn't indicate that.
Boycott foodservice industry crew
post 1657208973 03-02-2022, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted By ThatGuy950⏩
Honestly outside of the misc, it seems like no one is

But there’s a problem few people here or in normiecel land consider



10/10 oofs
ah yes this chart

never seen this before economics expert

the part where fed changed calculations by adding savings deposits to M1 causing this spike


now go look at money velocity oh wait.
post 1657209823 03-02-2022, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted By EDcellent⏩
At this point since I don't own a home, I'm tempted to just buy land and have a tiny home or cabin built with what I have saved. As a single guy with no kids, I'm not getting a mortgage for a 300-400k house. I'd rather live in a small place, have a virtually nothing cost of living (in comparison to a mortgage) and just invest most of my pay.
Do it Srs, fuk having a huge house is completely overrated. BRB, more maintenance, more heating, more cooling, more renovations, etc, etc. Buy the land, small house and be done. They don't make land anymore. The issue for me is land out in the west is insane. Hell I bough a 1/2 acre lot 13 months ago for $75K and its close to $200K today. All while having a $317/year tax bill. I'm currently looking at building like a 40w'x60'lx16'h shop on that lot with a small kitchenette and bathroom so I can get permits and call it a residence. I'll build the inside as I want in the years to come, or not. Either way its a livable dwelling.
post 1657210673 03-02-2022, 01:34 PM
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Also, look at 3rd world counties for investments. I have a few lots in the Dominican Republic. One on the beach and a couple up the hill from the beach. I actually own those since there are no property taxes. One lot has a house on it. Getting a title for the land can be a $$$ process and take years though. You get a better deal if you do that yourself or pay more for land that has a title. Just cause you are a rentcel in the states doesn't mean you have to be in other countries.
post 1657210963 03-02-2022, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted By Berts⏩
Do it Srs, fuk having a huge house is completely overrated. BRB, more maintenance, more heating, more cooling, more renovations, etc, etc. Buy the land, small house and be done. They don't make land anymore. The issue for me is land out in the west is insane. Hell I bough a 1/2 acre lot 13 months ago for $75K and its close to $200K today. All while having a $317/year tax bill. I'm currently looking at building like a 40w'x60'lx16'h shop on that lot with a small kitchenette and bathroom so I can get permits and call it a residence. I'll build the inside as I want in the years to come, or not. Either way its a livable dwelling.
What type of square footing are you trying to build in regards to the house?
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