If you want to go even more basic get a tabo, its what they use in SE asia. 10 bucks and you're set for life as long as you have water

Very smart to adapt to third world living now that dems are in control

You’ll be fine OP just don’t be poor

these people in trouble then...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bekDq_Ebi2I

Semi related to subject:


Ukraine covers about 50% of the world sunflower oil shipments

Seed planting this year is expected to drop 28% from last year






And they are looking at less than half of pre war expectations of other seeds sown








Us pace

I’ve got provisions to last me and another person for 5+ years. And multiple propane tanks. I’ll be good.

Lots of SOY I see.... lol

Food shortage doesn't mean we are gonna run out of food. What it means is we will have less supply, less inventory. So certain brands and items will sell out more often. They might not have that cut of meat you like, or that special pasta your mom makes, your favorite drink, etc. You should realize as supply goes down, demand goes up, prices will increase. So in short, yes you should probably stock up now to hedge against further inflation, skyrocketing food costs and the potential that certain popular sought after food items won't be available.

You will - yes, son.Dude, who doesn't have at 6 weeks without being a prepper at all? We could go months if needed. If we were into prepping, then with our pantry habits we'd have years, but we're not kooks.

You should always have emergency food, brah. Doesn’t matter what time of the year it is or who is in charge. Always be ahead of the curve.

Lol true



Speaking of soy- there is also this problem….


https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/soy...-projects-crop


https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/soy...an-crop-brazil

Yes, this is a thing. As previously stated it looks like real suffering/famine for poorer countries; and something ranging from inconvenience to hardship [dependent on $$$] for people in wealthier countries.

And it was already an issue BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine which has greatly exacerbated the situation.

All of these are from Nov. 21 through the first of Feb.2022:






This article was from before Russia invaded Ukraine:https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-i...ral-gas-prices

Is this a planned famine?Of course I don't know.

But it is quite curious that China has stockpiled grain while banning the export of fertilizer and that shortly after Russia banned the export of fertilizer too.

Then, on top of that, Russia invades Ukraine [crops going unplanted] and our dear leaders decide that sanctioning Russia and therefore increasing the cost of petroleum products and fertilizer even more is some how a good idea.

If there's a food shortage King Biden will solve the American obesity problem. What an alpha male

Just buy seeds and start growing veggies.

OP must not know how the economy functions on a basic level. If a resource is scarce then prices increase.

The United States makes up 4.3% of the world population but has roughly 29% of the world's wealth. The median household income worldwide is like $10k whereas in the US it is $67k.

In short the US will always have food unless 70% of the world has already starved. Also "emergency food supplies" are overpriced garbage. Buy non perishable things (rice, instant macaroni and cheese, pop tarts, canned stuff) and there's your cheap emergency food stash of things you'll actually want to eat, not whatever the supplier could buy cheapest and repackage to sell to you at 3x the cost. If you can't figure out how to do this then don't worry as you're too dumb to survive on your own more than a couple days.

Right, but just saying "we have plenty of food in the US" doesn't mean we won't be affected. And I generally agree that keeping a stocked pantry of regular non-perishables is the best plan for most people vs. buying special emergency food that you may not like or use.^^^
For miscers who are pretty well set financially this will be a bigger issue than a stocked pantry- business slow downs, layoffs, perhaps a big drop in stock valuations. If you have rental property will your tenants be able to continue to pay rent in a timely manner?

Given I owned any rental property I would be leaning towards keeping a stable long term tenant w/two income earners and/or work that is unlikely to be cut and leaving the rent alone or only raising enough to cover higher expenses vs. chasing a higher rent rate.There is a lot of online info to be found on water. Hauling water from the lake wouldn't be my first choice because who know what all is in there [meaning man made pollutants]. The most favored water filter though seems to be Berkey.Global. I expect that South America will be quite different than the US as they have a much different system. If you are good with eating whatever is produced locally then it could be a fairly minor issue given you have a western level income.

I watched part of a video this past week re:Russia and higher prices there. It was a video done by a woman just walking around a store. I had to look up some stuff to get an idea.

She said that previously they had apples for 50 rubles a kg and now they are 99 rubles a kg. At the present exchange rate that would mean fresh apples went from 50 cents for 2.2 pounds to $1 for 2.2 pounds. Locally [DFW] $2 to $2.50 for one pound of fresh apples is about average.

Of course the income levels are much different too, though Russia doesn't seem that bad. Average nominal income for 2021 was 56K rubles per month [$5,600]:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-nominal-wage/

Another source puts the median at $40,000 USD per year:

My understanding of the situation is that the foundation of our food production includes materials that come from russia that we cannot produce ourselves and without that our domestic production goes to a fraction of what it is now. I guess we are still buying that chit from russia just like we're still buying russian oil but if that stops you wont be able to buy food at any price. I'd like to think we wont get to that point but I'd like to be prepared just in case.

[QUOTE=Stizzel post_id=1658707643]My understanding of the situation is that the foundation of our food production includes materials that come from russia that we cannot produce ourselves and without that our domestic production goes to a fraction of what it is now. I guess we are still buying that chit from russia just like we're still buying russian oil but if that stops you wont be able to buy food at any price. I'd like to think we wont get to that point but I'd like to be prepared just in case.[/QUOTE]So unless there is some secret item I am unaware of that Russia sends us, they are in fact a very minor trading partner overall accounting for 1.1% of our overall imports last year. Here's some relevant stats from 2020 -

In 2020, Russia exported $11.9B to United States . The main products that Russia exported to United States were Refined Petroleum ($4.62B), Platinum ($2.16B), and Crude Petroleum ($979M).

In 2020, Ukraine exported $1.11B to United States . The main products that Ukraine exported to United States were Pig Iron ($540M), Seed Oils ($56.4M), and Iron Pipes ($44.9M).

You could argue that petroleum would be crucial to food production and distribution, which anyone would agree with, however we imported 10x as much oil from Canada as Russia last year and have plenty of our own should we choose to ramp up production. The US is also one of the largest producers of food and exports the most from a $ value perspective. The only danger to your food supply here in the US from this war is speculative price increases. That's it. Just like oil, again we don't really get much of our oil from Russia yet the cost is now $2/gallon more than it was a few months ago. Why? Speculation. Does this mean you should go out and convert your truck to run on wood instead of gas? No. Similarly it doesn't mean you should go purchase prepackaged food from the lowest bidder that some company put in a bucket and decided that service should triple the food's value.

I believe the item you're talking about that is the 'foundation' to our food production may be potash, which is used to make fertilizer. This should help you sleep tonight --
[QUOTE]Together, Russia and Belarus control 40% of the world's potash supply. In 2021, the U.S. imported about 93 percent of the potash needs. Canada provides 83% of the potash used in the U.S.; Russia and Belarus provided 12% used in the U.S. in 2021[/QUOTE]Again pretty much no impact if Russia and Belarus stopped shipping it to us. Just buy a bit more from Canada and nobody would even notice, and since we have most of the worlds wealth we'd definitely be the ones buying more from others rather than dealing with shortages.




[QUOTE=katya422 post_id=1658707343]Right, but just saying "we have plenty of food in the US" doesn't mean we won't be affected. And I generally agree that keeping a stocked pantry of regular non-perishables is the best plan for most people vs. buying special emergency food that you may not like or use.

[/img][/QUOTE]I never said we wouldn't be affected. That would be a really dumb statement. I said that the US will always have food unless the situation is so dire that a huge population of the earth has already starved to death. We may end up paying more, but if OP is considering paying 2x what food is worth for an "emergency food supply" he'd be better off just buying food at regular price instead of paying extra now even before it costs twice as much. If OP wants to waste money on crap food from the lowest bidder and prepackged into amounts that provide enough nutrition to ensure he won't starve then be my guest but it isn't a good idea from any angle, and if he thinks it is I would be willing to bet he wouldn't survive long enough to need it in a situation where survival food was needed.

I am pretty much stocked for a year. 8 cu-ft chest freezer full of beef and pork, butter, bacon, a few chickens and turkeys. 20 lbs pasta, 30 lbs rice, beans, shelves and shelves of cans...fruit, soups, meat, etc. I did it all slowly during the pandemic and then doubled it this past week. I don't anticipate serious shortages but I do see prices skyrocketing. I tried to buy M&M chocolate eggs the other day for my kids for Easter and the bags are the same size but half as full and twice the price. Inflation is coming. But if chocolate eggs are our biggest concern we're doing OK.

ETA:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pWgn4JUfdkmy father and grandparents in law are farmers and watch this show religiously. It's extremely dry insider farmer type stuff but gives an idea of what farmers are dealing with business-wise. The supply chain is very strained already due to the pandemic as is labor. The energy problem is there, but also now the prices of fertilizer, and inflation, and crop prices being wacky. All it takes is a bad drought or excessively wet season to really mess things up.

I think GAchase posted a list of the base elements we need from Russia but in terms of fertilizer they export something called potash which makes fertilizer far more potent, and if I'm remembering correctly the elements used to make it exist almost exclusively in Russia. Without that crop yields go down significantly, and I don't know of any way to replace it. Any farmer with cattle can make a basic fertilizer but that won't support current population levels.

Yeah I included data on potash in my original post not sure why you omitted it.Again the only danger you face is slightly increased prices from tangible problems, but likely drastically increased prices due to speculation. Thats it.

And my last edit was even 8:32 - Last edited by soaponarope1; Today at 08:32 AM. - odd to omit the entire section about potash that I put up but then tell me about potash and what it is used for.

Well I'm happy to be wrong. If I buy extra food and chit doesn't hit the fan then worst case I'm paying today's prices before tomorrow's inflation. Doesn't seem to be any downside.

Sure, buy extra food if it makes you feel better but I'm just pointing out that people living in the US won't face a shortage of food unless things are so bad globally that a huge amount of people have already starved simply because we can both buy the food with resources or take it if it comes to that (which we very much would were we starving). If you want to do that just use your brain and buy regular food items that don't expire, perhaps repackage them if you want, but do not waste your money on the premade "emergency food" products on the market. The downside is if you buy stuff you don't end up using. So much of this stuff is marketed to take advantage of people's fear (similar to the gold commercials with overpriced coins you'll never see a profit on) and it kinda pisses me off to see people happily profit off of scaring what in many times turns out to be elderly people who don't actually have a ton of disposable money.

Also, you can live for like 2 months without food which is long enough that in an event where there was no food there would be literally millions of dead people you could scavenge resources from. You can only go about 3 days without water. If you want peace of mind get a good water purification system.

Yeah, I live near the ocean so I'm getting a basic desalination set up as an absolute last resort. My area is hurricane prone so this is all a good idea to have anyway.

For the US Russia's export situation mostly matters because of how it affects global demand. We aren't a very big customer for their products, but if their product is not available on the market then the demand for and prices of those commodities will be driven higher across the board.

It is very concerning because of how these commodity shortages [higher demand than supply] feed upward through the entire supply chain. It is a sort of inflation that interest rate increases are not likely to tame.

From December 2021:https://www.agriculture.com/news/cro...es-weighing-in

So they were already talking about "at least a 15% increase in the cost of commodity inputs" for farmers BEFORE the Russia situation. And this article doesn't even touch on drought.

I don't have time to dive into this, but it's the most recent paper I turned up:

https://link.springer.com/article/10...90-021-00425-2

If farmer's costs increase then they have to pass that cost onward or take a loss.

The usual line is that food and fuel aren't included in inflation calculations due to volatility. What is also true though is that food and fuel are real world systems which are more difficult to monkey around with via imaginary money games. Either there is plenty of food and energy available to those who want to have it, or there isn't. Maybe you can double up on housing, live out of your car, or sleep on the street- still can't fuel your car with clouds or feed your face with rocks.

Hit is Merle:

It's only very concerning if you're not at the top of the chain. The average US citizen is very much at the top of that chain and will notice nothing but an minor increase in food cost due to any global shortage. Now, the speculation on shortages and commodity values will have a much larger impact on the food price. A great example of this is the current Russia - Ukraine war with oil. This war hasn't really impacted the global production or supply of oil at all, however speculation has caused the price of oil to swing wildly.

It’s always good to have stock on necessities. This isn’t just because we know hard times are coming, but to also to expect the unexpected. Natural disasters are real too. Last year we were stuck in our homes for almost two weeks because of snow storms. Water lines were freezing, so I had to turn off the main water line to the house. Grocery stores weren’t getting food deliveries either, so local places ran out of stock too

So someone clarified in my CP for me - Russia produces a sodium potash as opposed to potassium that is extremely important for food production.

these are more effective and free.



everyone should have 3 months of food on hand, basic mormon preparedness.

By Biden telling people, it’s going to create an artificial food shortage. Remember the toilet paper shortage? 🤦🏻‍♂️