You’re free to do whatever you want with your money. Doesn’t mean you’re making the best financial decision with your money. I’m not too sure of many investors that wouldn’t care about an 8-25% loss (“a few 100k” off $1.2M).

Listings where I am are way over 30 days and lowering prices or taking them off the market entirely. Now realtors are spinning it as "wait for next years' spring market herp derp".

Because it’s not a financial investment

It’s a place for me and my family to live for next 20 years

It also serves as a diversification hedge.

Did all you mortgagecells make your monthly payment to the bank on the 1st of the month?

10.9 months of housing supply, most of it added in record time. And they aren't paying it anymore. I live in the #1-2 fastest growing metro since 2000. So we're a canary in a coalmine. In February just 5% of houses had to come down on price. As of July it was 35%, with a trajectory headed well past half this month or the next. Even though we had the lowest inventory in the US and it is still very low. Nationally inventories went from low levels to near record levels in just a few months. Next FR report will show over 12 months of housing inventory nationally. If that gets reported widely it will accelerate loses.

Houses will still sell in the Northeast and Midwest, where with a few city exceptions prices are still 1990s levels. Here in the South and out West it's party over. Only houses selling now are ones $750K+ or shacks out in the country you can get for a few packs of cigs.

Eviction cases are backlogged for at least a year....

Good luck trying to evict tenants... they living rent free, but the law still requires owners to perform maintenance...


RE crash = March 2022.. the downward spiral continues....


Next up: mass layoffs and skyrocketing heating bills for the winter....

Depends on the location, the pricing example OP provided is not accurate for most homes though.

My friend, who literally sold their house a few weeks ago, had potential buyers lined up. An investor bought his house with cash and went up a bit on the asking price. Others backed out because they don’t want to do $3500 mortgage payments. He was living in Henderson, NV.

The buyer is obviously been buying houses for a while now so I don’t think that person cares how much at this point. He/she just wants to gobble up properties as much as possible at desirable locations.

This could also mean the house prices are not going down any time soon, maybe ever. It will keep appreciating, but not as fast as it was 1-2 yrs ago.

IRA’s have a $6,000 limit and taxes on gains. Do you mean a Roth IRA, self-directed IRA, or Backdoor? Those use post tax dollars but again limited to $6,000 a year and income caps.

A self-directed IRA? I think those are foolish to do.

Most people aren’t financially savvy enough to run a brokerage account that beats the market over the long term. Most financial advisors don’t beat the market over the long term either. I think it’s somewhere along the lines that 98% don’t.

The vast majority of the population 98% are better off using index fund investing and letting it sit for long term wealth.

Yes, it is possible for someone to not put money in their 401k and place it into a self-directed IRA, Roth, or brokerage account, but on average only 2% of the population will beat the market over the long term.

I think more people will adhere to the Dunning-Kruger effect and end up losing money if they don’t use their 401k.

A person can always use their 401k to max, then backdoor it into a Roth.

People from China come in and buy property in my area in cash, thus increasing the home values. Not that I'm complaining, other than the whole area is turning Chinese and white people are now the minority. Still, Chinese people are quiet neighbors. Some jackass across the street moved to Singapore and rented out his 5 bedroom house to white people in their 30s who have loud parties, so I'll take the Chinese any day. The only problem I would have is if I bought a condo and had to smell the raw fish lol.

White people can be the worst neighbors. I had one who set up a batting cage in his backyard! It was nonstop cling, cling, cling all day and night and I'm sure he was giving lessons back there. THANK HEAVENS they just moved and now it's a family of 3 white kids. Not sure how a family of 3 can afford a $2 million house. They must have a lot of stock or sold their last home at such a profit. Alternatively the Dad and Mom could be executives or doctors.

Can you use the cash that you would be using to pay off your mortgage to beat out 2.25%? At 2.25% I’m assuming you’re on a 15 year mortgage?

I mean even if you want to be super conservative, 10 year Treasury Bonds are at 3.2%…So that alone gives you .95% gain.

Also, if you paid off your mortgage, what opportunities will losing that payment give you? How could you use that? Something to consider.

Yes RE does move at glacier speed, since it's a complicated transaction. The term "crash" is a bit hyperbolic, just like stock market going down another 20% over the next several months won't be a "crash." This housing bubble deflatingwill take a few years. The "2008 crash" people wrongly cite was not a crash either. Firstly, it started in early 2007 and prices went down nationally on average by 15% over the course of 2 years, before going completely flat for 3 more years.

The end result was in 2012 when prices started going back up again, prices were back at 2004 levels.

Something to keep in mind is large investors are out now. The iSellers like Opendoor, Zillow and others are selling like mad to cut their losses. More mom and pop style investors probably not going to decrease much since they put in sweat equity.

Yes I'm referring to a ROTH. And you don't need to be financially savvy to run a brokerage account. I'm not, I have 30K split evenly over 3 index funds. Just going to sit back and watch it grow. Simple as that, and my money is available if I ever need it.

401K's are great but I'm not going to live paycheck to paycheck and have poor liquidity so I can dump 20K a year into it. I put like 7K in each year right now, after matching that's 12K. If I did that and never increased it, it's a nice $5.5M when I'm 62. Same for my wife. Of course I'll up my numbers as I get older and my pay goes up.

Bruh that was 6 months ago and it still hasn't crashed. Just admit you were wrong

I think part of it will be determined on if the economy continues trending downwards. Looking at major Fortune 50 companies, a lot are tightening up their belt. Some tech companies like Snap are laying off 20% of their employees. Which will trickle down to other companies.

Maybe those people have a healthy emergency fund, and mortgages and bills that can be covered for a few months it takes to find a new job. But the longer one stays unemployed with a dwindling emergency fund, they’re going to take a lower paying job, and who knows if that new job will be enough to pay the bills.

A lot of the jobs hiring right now, are minimum wage service jobs. Who were never in the housing market to begin with.

I truly hope people have done some basic financial preparation.

And the downward spiral continues....

Just a heads up for the wageslaving boyos: layoffs are set to begin in September.... better get that resumé updated and start networking....

How are you getting this $5.5M figure? If you’re 30, contributing $12,000/yr, starting with $50K, and 6% interest. You’ll have $1.5M from the 401k.

The general economy is hitting the skids, that's for sure. Large and medium sized employers are telling WFH people to get back to the office ASAP or their job is gone. Problem is a bunch of them already bought a house hundreds of miles away, so it's gonna be hard to be in the office this coming Tuesday (or whatever day this month). Media puff pieces assured them WFH was the way of the present and future. Saying get back to the office immediately is a convenient way to lay off a bunch of non-vital people too. I keep seeing talk of quiet quitting, well this is quiet firing.

I'd bet we have 6 months before recession peaks. It's been very mild so far, and the one thing that might keep it mild is people simply being UNDERemployed rather than unemployed for awhile. So someone currently making $80K might have to take a job making half that for awhile. Baby Boomers are hitting their peak retirement era right now, so that's going to shake up the job market, leaving lots of room. Contrary to Fortune.com or what WSJ articles portray not all Baby Boomers are company middle managers. Far from it.

Yeah it’s too bad, because a lot of those employers either hired people on saying they could be fully remote, or told their employees they could be fully remote. So the employees are going back on their word at the employees expense.

It’s definitely a lesson in becoming financially independent as soon as possible and building out various revenue streams. That takes a lot of time, effort, dedication, and sacrifice and not everyone wants to do it.

It should be interesting to see what a lot of those people do. Bought a house hundreds of miles away and want to keep their job. Short sale of the house, they go find a rental or even a hotel room for a few weeks until they're settled back at work? We're not talking a few thousand jobs, we're talking tens if not hundreds of thousands of jobs in the next few months. I read an article recently on the topic and all of the top comments were people REEEEEEing about it.

you understand "stickiness" is just lag in the response of the market, not immunity right?

Home sales are down to the lowest point since the 08 crash and that's months old data, its even lower now. I have NO words for anyone that sees this and thinks the market isn't ALREADY recessing. You don't see it because the avg price is based off sales, not existing listings......

HENCE THE STICKINESS....because it is a lagging indicator.

jfc

March 1rd, 2032

Miscers seem to be more in denial and unaware than the rest of the population. The ones bragging about making a lot off selling their home generally bought when prices were at multi year lows. Bought in 2012-14. Good, prices then were still lower than in 2008. And if you sell right now, you're going to also buy again, right? Unless you're moving from a very expensive area to a cheaper one you're probably making a lateral move, and thus just carrying equity into a house about the same value as before.

Anyway you're very right about lag. Mortgage applications down to lowest level in a decade or more, mortgage rates from 2.7% to near 6%, likely 7% at the end of this month, prices in hot markets not selling above asking price in just a few months time. And I can't repeat it enough, "2008 crash" is a bad description of what actually happened at the macro level. Nationally prices went down 15% over 2 years, so down about 0.6% a month, before going sideways for a few years. Sounds like it was nothing described like that, yet millions of people went into foreclosure. Lots of lag will continue as people keep their fingers crossed their home will be an exception to the trend. It's natural to do so, and then they get no serious offers.

And lots of manipulation is done to cover up problems in housing decreases. A house doesn't sell after being on the market for 2 months, it gets taken off the market for 2 days, gets relisted at a lower price and then when it sells the stats say it sold after being on the market for just 12 days. "Houses in this neighborhood are selling after just 12 days" so long as you game the system and pretend the prior 2 months never happened.

Because 6% is a meh return, I used 10%. And because I based it off of starting at 22, which is what I did. So far I've gotten about 9% in the last 7 years. When I turn 30 I'll probably have more like 110-120K.

To be fair though, I will probably tone down the risk of my portfolio when I get older so I likely won't always get 9-10%. But, when I'm in my 40's, 50's, etc. I'll probably be putting in more like 15K+ annually.

Coolknees is right, you really are over-thinking it. There are a lot of people with a relatively high income that don't concern themselves with housing markets prices, interest rates, the stock market, what the Fed is doing, the general economy, etc. It really just boils down to they want a house. They can afford X amount per month. So the buy house.




Miscers are obsessed with the news, the real estate market, the stock market and stuff in the world that barely matters to their life... Miscers are overly analytic, high inhibition and high anxiety. Its precisely why we have so many real estate threads where renters are trying to use logic/analytics/science on whether they should buy a home or not. Why so many miscers can't get laid/aren't smashing their way through multiple women per week.

“Why would anyone buy right now”…. is this a real question?

Investors, Job transfers, upsizing, downsizing, retirement, divorce, marriage, death, etc, etc



Even in the worst markets, 4-5 MILLION homes sell every year.

It is entirely possible for interest rates to go up,reducing demand and reducing the number of transactions, and still have prices remain high for a very, very long time.

You think homes (NOT HOUSES) are fungible commodities. They are not.

Homes are leveraged assets. What results from this is that sellers have a price floor, otherwise they're losing huge amounts of money. So they will just stay where they are.

If there are mass job losses for an extended period and people are forced to sell then perhaps there may be some price movement, but even then lenders will want to keep prices high for obvious reasons that hopefully I don't have to spell out for you.

Jesus christ, why have you bottom feeders done absolutely nothing but turn everything into some race calculation

This thread is about high interest rates and the fools still trying to get the same money prior to fed rate hikes