Where are all the Doomer threads?

10-06-2022, 07:44 PM

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#31

katya422

katya422

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Originally Posted By LogicalLifts⏩

To be clear (and this is why I get miffed if people use 'sanctions' this way), even the EU's 8th package of sanctions against Russia is nothing compared to the true extent of sanctions - e.g., the EU's and US' against Iran, pre-JCPOA. Sanctions can completely collapse an economy. Yes, there's a price to pay, but the point here isn't "Russia is functional despite western sanctions" - it is functional precisely because (it is more than the 'West') sanctions adopted against Russia only go so far.

They can go a lot farther, if the countries adopting them wish to pay the price for doing so.But it is their decision - the tail that wags the dog must be abundantly clear by now.

I would say that supports the premise that those countries as consumers need Russian production more than Russia needs them as consumers.

Russia may not have all of the finished goods that their population would like, but given time and continued trade with countries which are still buying from them they could either find other sources of supply or develop their own.

Slightly OT I find it interesting that you seem to believe the sanctions against Russia aren't that harsh given that I had the impression from the media that they were being sanctioned severely.

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10-06-2022, 07:51 PM

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#32

LogicalLifts
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩

I would say that supports the premise that those countries as consumers need Russian production more than Russia needs them as consumers.

Russia may not have all of the finished goods that their population would like, but given time and continued trade with countries which are still buying from them they could either find other sources of supply or develop their own.

Slightly OT I find it interesting that you seem to believe the sanctions against Russia aren't that harsh given that I had the impression from the media that they were being sanctioned severely.

Why would it show "economic need"? That's the doomer take. Sanctions are adopted in an incremental approach, not a totalitarian one - trivially look at some sanctions regimes where a few persons are specifically targeted (CAR), and then look at the sanctions against the DPRK.

It isn't OT (your comment), so while I'm at it: the vast majority of folks who use the word "sanctions" have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

Compare the sanctions against Russia (in their totality), to Council Regulation 267 / 2012 (consolidated) against Iran.

Courtesy link:https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-cont...X%3A32012R0267

Read that in its entirety, and then see exactly how much more sanctions could truly be adopted against the Russian Federation. That's the 'end game', and sanctions have come even farther since then in any case, so when I say they can be crafted to collapse Russia's economy, they can be - as was done against Iran. But the EU is smart enough to mitigate and adapt away from those risks, first, despite the doomers on this forum talking about an "EU collapse" (laughable).