They keep printing money i guess

This rally looks fake and gay to me.

The stock market is pumping because long-term bonds are dropping like a rock. In 6 weeks, the US 10 year Treasury (kind of the proxy for long term debt costs... mortgage rates are based on this for example) went from yielding 5% to yielding 4%. It just fell off a fukking cliff.

Stocks work opposite to bond yields. If you could buy a Treasury bond that guaranteed 20% return a year for the next 30 years, you'd probably put your entire net worth into those and never buy a stock again. And if you had bonds paying 1% return a year for 30 years like during COVID, you'd never buy it because that return sucks dikk. So high-yielding bonds suck cash out of the stock market, and some of that money flows back in when bond yields drop.

Right now, bonds are dropping hard in expectation of a Fed pivot in early 2024, and stocks are repricing accordingly. What I don't get, is why people think the Fed funds rate is going to drop at all with CPI still at 4% (and on-the-ground inflation at like 10%-20%). I think hedge fund brahs are shooting their wad too early here.

Earnings still suck and the macro picture looks grim, so I don't have any hope of actual economic growth occurring. Like with the whole past decade, the stock market is solely watching the Fed.