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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1668857083 10-03-2022, 09:40 AM
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#571
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Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust⏩
Why is it that my oil stocks are up so much today? I am tempted to sell everything
OPEC meeting this week to discuss production cuts.
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post 1668858513 10-03-2022, 10:06 AM
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#572
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Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust⏩
Why is it that my oil stocks are up so much today? I am tempted to sell everything
OPEC plans to manipulate the market some more. Proving Biden is worthless.
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post 1668858723 10-03-2022, 10:10 AM
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#573
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lmaooo

delivery numbers down

tesla bot legit top speed of 0.1 mph

post 1668858953 10-03-2022, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted By Bingo559⏩
Is anyone old enough and had money invested with companies like Bear Sterns or Lehman Bros?

I wonder because credit suisse does offer mutual funds. while i dont have any money invested with them, what would happen if something like this happend to vanguard?

I do own VTI shares. In the event they went bankrupt, what would happen to their mutual/ETF funds?
Yeah, I 'member. No way in hell institutions/corporations wouldn't lobby for the govt bailout. I think there would be little hesitation to do it. This admin might be completely worthless, but in the event of no bail out, no re-election, which is all they care about.
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post 1668864493 10-03-2022, 12:10 PM
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#575
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I thought sky was gonna be falling today with Credit Suisse defaulting.

Oh wait nvm. Just bunch of bs. That they try and shake weak hands.

5 year Credit default swap rates showing 3% chance of default.


There was also omg Fed having emergency meeting today.
post 1668866693 10-03-2022, 12:57 PM
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Markets should come down about 2.5% shortly.
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post 1668867213 10-03-2022, 01:13 PM
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no more rate hikes... just watch
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1668867633 10-03-2022, 01:20 PM
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#578
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
no more rate hikes... just watch
Possible but JPow did get KO'd in the last round, now he is going to capitulate.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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post 1668867743 10-03-2022, 01:21 PM
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#579
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What is this rip your dink off rally and where did it come from?!
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post 1668868053 10-03-2022, 01:27 PM
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#580
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
no more rate hikes... just watch
Oh rate hikes are happening.

Fed fund rates showing 425 BPS by Dec meeting.

That's implying 75BPS Nov meeting and 50BPS Dec meeting.

Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
What is this rip your dink off rally and where did it come from?!
Oversold seasonality bounce.

Fresh new month.

Money being put in to oversold stocks.

That could last until CPI report Oct 13 or 12 when next CPI comes out.


We saw the same thing start of Sept.
post 1668868603 10-03-2022, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
no more rate hikes... just watch
Unless I'm currently reading this post from sometime in early-to-mid 2023 . . . I'm pretty sure the answer is no.
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post 1668869003 10-03-2022, 01:43 PM
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#582
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I mean logic is simple.

Only way the Fed even thinks about pausing hikes is when market is close to crash.


This was last week 75BPS for Nov was down at 50%. Right where market was on critical level.


Market rallies like today.

Odds of 75% back to over 70%

Good data just helps fed raise fed rates.

post 1668870183 10-03-2022, 02:07 PM
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I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1668899663 10-04-2022, 06:01 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Oh rate hikes are happening.

Fed fund rates showing 425 BPS by Dec meeting.

That's implying 75BPS Nov meeting and 50BPS Dec meeting.






Oversold seasonality bounce.

Fresh new month.

Money being put in to oversold stocks.

That could last until CPI report Oct 13 or 12 when next CPI comes out.

We saw the same thing start of Sept.
"On Monday, the major averages rallied after weak manufacturing reading and construction spending data triggered hopes of a measured pace of rate hikes. Sentiment also received a lift from falling bond yields."

I am bad at trading but good at reading the room temperature (but of course if I were to buy calls then we will def go down LOL)

now if CPI data comes "decent" then I can see the feds double thinking the 75 and perhaps go with 50 or 25 (just thinking out loud)
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post 1668902273 10-04-2022, 07:28 AM
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#585
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Kinda feels like it's setting up for a repeat of the last time the market wanted to believe that inflation had peaked and the Fed was going to back off. Then didn't.

Eventually the market will be ahead of it when it happens. Whenever that is. I'm skeptical this is it, though.
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post 1668903363 10-04-2022, 07:49 AM
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#586
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What you're seeing last two days is monster short cover rally.

This is violent bear rally that can squeeze sp 150-200 points in few days.

Since Friday market is up 175 points.

This rally will slow down at 3800/3850 on SP.



10 year yield is down

Dxy is down.


hence you get this rally.
post 1668904663 10-04-2022, 08:16 AM
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The Fed ain't stopping the hikes until we see real pain in the labour market, the big risk at the moment is labour inflation and a wage-price spiral that some believe is already entrenched: higher wages cementing the current bout of inflation and then leading to more inflation because people have more $$$ and expect to pay more of their newfound $$$ for the same stuff.


I'd say this isn't over until people stop worrying about the stock market and start worrying about whether they'll have a job next month (srs), IMO this will likely happen after the Fed pauses and before they start unwinding the rate hikes and this might be when the market actually bottoms.


In the end, the goal will be getting higher pay for everyone but still ~2% inflation so people actually come out ahead. What does that likely mean? Lower corporate margins IMO, at least I think that's what they're gunning for.
post 1668906343 10-04-2022, 08:47 AM
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#588
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Not a bad day so far today.


Thanks Biden?
post 1668906483 10-04-2022, 08:50 AM
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#589
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Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
This. Business still going great. Just had a record month. Made ~$19k commission last week. Crazy.
Can confirm. Regional sales volume by dollars up 30% ytd.


Whose going nuts deep in spy puts with me?
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post 1668906503 10-04-2022, 08:51 AM
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#590
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

you will be just donating money to dealers


Unless tmmrw Opec goes phuck your calls

we doing 2+ million cut

WTI goes $90+



this rally is scary and can keep going
post 1668906783 10-04-2022, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Can confirm. Regional sales volume by dollars up 30% ytd.


Whose going nuts deep in spy puts with me?
Literally almost the exact same thing. We're up 28% over this point last year so far.
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post 1668906823 10-04-2022, 08:58 AM
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#592
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I'm pretty short, so the rally is indeed scary. lol, doesn't make much sense. I have a hard time believing we're out of the woods yet though, so don't think I'm ready to get long here.
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post 1668907013 10-04-2022, 09:01 AM
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#593
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Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
This. Business still going great. Just had a record month. Made ~$19k commission last week. Crazy.
This type of stuff should illustrate how far we have to go, there is still waaay too much money flying around


And some people are trying to argue we're in a recession and the Fed needs to let up, just lol. Fed officials are talking to businesses etc, they know the reality on the ground.




We're seriously not done until people ITT are worrying about their jobs rather than a line moving up/down on a graph
post 1668907213 10-04-2022, 09:04 AM
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^^^^^^ Destor

that because as you said above people look at stock market too much.

stock market is not the economy.

inflation can turn into secular inflation.
post 1668907973 10-04-2022, 09:17 AM
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#595
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
The chart does look good for a reversal but it looks like it will be a temporary one, maybe it runs to about $9 but it needs to make another big move down after.
CCL up over 11% today. It was certainly good for a nice quick trade if you went in.
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post 1668908073 10-04-2022, 09:18 AM
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#596
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I have a feeling the ES just got to the HOD at 3800
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post 1668908093 10-04-2022, 09:18 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
^^^^^^ Destor

that because as you said above people look at stock market too much.

stock market is not the economy.

inflation can turn into secular inflation.
I think retail peeps focusing on the stock market too much is another symptom of excess in the system. When people are more focused on being able to pay their bills rather than fluctuating stock prices, that might indicate we've endured enough pain
Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
Depends on the industry/clientele. Most of the end-users for what I sell are multimillionaires and billionaires. So they'll have money regardless of a recession. If it makes sense to finance it depending on the rate, they will. But they can also easily pay cash.


Construction sales. But our revenue has always been fine during downturns, even 2008. Reason being, it's a niche luxury product/service and our clients are typically very rich.
How tight is the labour market on your end? I'm in heavy industrial construction with massive projects that alone are hundreds of millions or $1b+, no companies in these provinces can find enough people to get anything done in a reasonable time frame.


0.0001%ers benefitted the most from the QE and are probably the people that need to feel the most *pain*, the fact that they're still throwing around so much cash on the back of all this wealth destruction across asset classes...
post 1668908483 10-04-2022, 09:26 AM
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#598
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Reloading WBA puts here. Sold at $60 which unfortunately wasn’t the peak, but good money none the less.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1668908763 10-04-2022, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
How tight is the labour market on your end?I'm in heavy industrial construction with massive projects that alone are hundreds of millions or $1b+, no companies in these provinces can find enough people to get anything done in a reasonable time frame.


0.0001%ers benefitted the most from the QE and are probably the people that need to feel the most *pain*, the fact that they're still throwing around so much cash on the back of all this wealth destruction across asset classes...
Not as bad as Canada. And slowly loosening up.
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1668909543 10-04-2022, 09:45 AM
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#600
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Originally Posted By XcelerateNYC⏩
I have a feeling the ES just got to the HOD at 3800
Today possibly.

This is the most insane two day short squeeze rally of the year.

However still not overbought.

200 points up in 2 days lmao.

Bear markets of piss.


Setup feels the same like last month get it high as possible before CPI next week and try sell trap that Fed does 50bps next month instead of 75bps.


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