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» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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post 1703758291 07-16-2024, 09:06 PM
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#6211
  1. usersignup2
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Pltr went from $7 to $26 May 2023 to March 2024. How tf you figure Microsoft or Amazon hold a candle to that?
it had an amazing run in that time but a lot of people were bagholding at $7. I bought in just after IPO so my original investement is 3x plus my added position over time is up around 40%. But also keep in mind the psychology of investing. I would have very little problem putting 25% - 50% of my port into a single big name but I wouldn't do it with PLTR, namely because there is not enough company history for me to have that type of conviction. MSFT on the other hand is a no brainer for me. So while I may allot a bigger portion to get a smaller % gain, I can sleep a whole lot better and expect consistent 10+% annual returns. That means timing is less critical and drawdowns will be on average, less extreme. To each their own but if I could do it all again starting from today (not 20 years ago) I would DCA into QQQ and SPY. That's not to say your methodology doesn't work because you seem to be doing quite well but for joe investor who doesn't have the time or inclination for DD it is mostly a crapshoot.

so yes, handpicking + DD + conviction can reap solid gains. Subtract DD and index investing will beat almost everything else.

and while we're at it, some people will mistake DD as watching some YT vids and then confirmation bias with more like vids.
post 1703758831 07-16-2024, 09:20 PM
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#6212
  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Pltr went from $7 to $26 May 2023 to March 2024. How tf you figure Microsoft or Amazon hold a candle to that?
That’s only if you are able to nail the bottom, which of course is not possible, yes pltr was $7 dollars, but before that it was $40 or whatever, in the long run Apple Amazon Microsoft has been a better investment, and most importantly much safer,

I don’t have anything against pltr, I own some, But I think allocation size matters, the more risk, the more reward, the smaller the allocation. It’s not a coincidence that Warren Buffett is 40% apple, he would never be 40% pltr.
post 1703769731 07-17-2024, 06:22 AM
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#6213
  1. stockbruh
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I’m 85 percent PLTR up 36 percent YTD let’s see if it keeps working for me and whoever said there’s not enough company history just so you know PLTR was founded shortly after PayPal it was just private for around 20 years
post 1703770891 07-17-2024, 07:01 AM
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#6214
  1. Abzu
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Originally Posted By kusok
That’s only if you are able to nail the bottom, which of course is not possible, yes pltr was $7 dollars, but before that it was $40 or whatever, in the long run Apple Amazon Microsoft has been a better investment, and most importantly much safer,

I don’t have anything against pltr, I own some, But I think allocation size matters, the more risk, the more reward, the smaller the allocation. It’s not a coincidence that Warren Buffett is 40% apple, he would never be 40% pltr.
I've nailed bottoms multiple times but not all the time, I find it harder to nail the tops than the bottoms but I try anyway lol



I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703773891 07-17-2024, 08:21 AM
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#6215
  1. SipNPiz
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I’m at a new all time high boys!
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1703774121 07-17-2024, 08:28 AM
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#6216
  1. thatsnarf
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just bought some NVDA @ 120. didn't think it was gonna get there. another buy order for 115

buy order for AMD @ 160

Want TSLA to cave so I can get some more.

I need SOFI to get to 8.24 so I can gtfo out of that bag
post 1703775071 07-17-2024, 08:54 AM
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#6217
  1. Abzu
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Originally Posted By thatsnarf
just bought some NVDA @ 120. didn't think it was gonna get there. another buy order for 115

buy order for AMD @ 160

Want TSLA to cave so I can get some more.

I need SOFI to get to 8.24 so I can gtfo out of that bag
Had the same thought last week about this week, changed mind this morning and feel pretty good about after seeing NVDA go under 120 so easily lol
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703776661 07-17-2024, 09:38 AM
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#6218
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Nice seeing the Kr continuation. Starting to sell the $60 calls at $71 with a cost average of $40. Keeping the $55c cost average $83. Still just even on the 8 $65 calls I bought lmao.

EDIT: sold 8 of the $60 calls still got 36. got 17 $55 calls and just sold the 8 $65 at 25 for break even.
Originally Posted By SipNPiz
I’m at a new all time high boys!
Congrats! Same here just hit $150 racks yesterday and today 153 lmao. not even gonna mention the account holding my fnma/fmcc common position.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1703778531 07-17-2024, 10:29 AM
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#6219
  1. Abzu
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Bros...







Man am I whooping that trick today lol you know who you are <3(not srs)
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703779591 07-17-2024, 11:02 AM
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#6220
  1. RobParks2M
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Who is in here deleting posts lmao. Tuggy dat you?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1703781971 07-17-2024, 12:07 PM
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#6221
  1. dankydank
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Exited OXY calls around 100%, was up 200% in June but it went nowhere for no reason. Another 3-4% drop in tech and it’s an easy buy. They rotated to hard into small caps 13% in 1 week.
post 1703782201 07-17-2024, 12:12 PM
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#6222
  1. Abzu
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Originally Posted By dankydank
Exited OXY calls around 100%, was up 200% in June but it went nowhere for no reason. Another 3-4% drop in tech and it’s an easy buy. They rotated to hard into small caps 13% in 1 week.
True but they also rotated into INTC lol =].
Originally Posted By Abzu
Sold puts, bought calls on INTC and I picked up a big pack of LEG shares at ~$11.50 in the first 48 seconds after market opened lol



Yeah, true but even if he didn't buy short exp and far OTM it would still be better to sell puts on it, he owns shares already.



Hopeful we will get another chance to buy it at $5, together, <3
INTC is at ~$35, LEG is at ~$13 and SOFI just bounced from $6.15 to almost $8 lol







Cheer up lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703782771 07-17-2024, 12:24 PM
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#6223
  1. Abzu
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Loeser.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703783031 07-17-2024, 12:30 PM
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#6224
  1. Abzu
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lol
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703791051 07-17-2024, 03:14 PM
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#6225
  1. _zman
  2. Trancebrah
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
What tickers? I’m hearing sofi could go to 16$
Vanguard's VSGAX or ETF is VBKhttps://investor.vanguard.com/invest...io-composition
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
post 1703791291 07-17-2024, 03:19 PM
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#6226
  1. _zman
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Originally Posted By kusok
my wife and I have several accounts and I think what is really interesting is that we have been tracking the performance of many different stocks in our portfolio and these so-called boring growth stocks like apple and Microsoft have absolutely obliterated the small caps over pretty much any period of time, like all of these palantirs and Sofis they have absolutely nothing, nothing at all on boring ol’ Microsoft or Amazon, they got absolutely nothing, they just got completely crushed on any time frame,

And then there is the security aspect of it, what do you think is more likely that Sofi will have some typical headwinds or other difficulties or that people will suddenly stop buying iPhones? So it also becomes a question of not just how much money you can make, but How much money you can keep, there is almost 0 chance that apple is actually going to go down, certainly long-term it’s not going to happen, While small caps can go into the toilet and your money will be **** all.
Nobody knew MSFT and AMZN were going to be where they are today. So many tech companies have failed. In the research I've done, small caps outperform large caps. With the way NVDA is doing, that may not longer be the case of course. But in my research, I went farther back than 10 or 15 years as well. 15 years wouldn't even account for the recession.

I trust an index of small caps more than I would ever trust Apple. The only thing they got going for them now is software. It's an unethical company anyway. I may own shares in indexes, but it's not a stock I would EVER buy.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
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post 1703792581 07-17-2024, 03:47 PM
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#6227
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PLTR refuses to close below 28$ this thing is about to blast off after earnings.
post 1703810061 07-17-2024, 11:01 PM
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#6228
  1. RobParks2M
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Can't decide if tomorrow is the time to buy TLT puts or if I wait till it gets closer to $94.50. Find out next time on









Dragon






Ball







ZEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1703820481 07-18-2024, 07:50 AM
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#6229
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Pltr new 50$ price target from Dan Ives 🚀 🚀 🚀
post 1703823571 07-18-2024, 09:07 AM
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#6230
  1. Abzu
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
Pltr new 50$ price target from Dan Ives
Congrats but where are you setting you sell order?
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703823631 07-18-2024, 09:10 AM
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#6231
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Just sold my 7/19 BROS puts early for more than a 30, 33 or 39% gain lol still holding the 8/16 and I'm targeting 37, 35 and 33 to sell.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703824161 07-18-2024, 09:20 AM
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#6232
  1. TugOfPeace
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
Pltr new 50$ price target from Dan Ives ������ ������ ������
I missed the boat, fuark

Bought a small position in SOXL yesterday @ $57.. rip
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
post 1703825211 07-18-2024, 09:41 AM
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#6233
  1. Abzu
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
I missed the boat, fuark

Bought a small position in SOXL yesterday @ $57.. rip
Looks like I missed 37 on BROS lol I btched out due to 1DTE but I "knew" it would hit 37 today.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1703827031 07-18-2024, 10:25 AM
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#6234
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Originally Posted By Abzu
Congrats but where are you setting you sell order?
I have CCs on all my shares got paid 400$ a contract for Nov and December 30$ strike
post 1703827101 07-18-2024, 10:27 AM
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#6235
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
I missed the boat, fuark

Bought a small position in SOXL yesterday @ $57.. rip
There’s still time, PUT premiums are extremely high for Aug 9th earnings, would prob be a good entry point to get in
post 1703832891 07-18-2024, 12:58 PM
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#6236
  1. Elias373
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
Pltr new 50$ price target from Dan Ives
Did he forget a zero?
post 1703832941 07-18-2024, 12:58 PM
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#6237
  1. Elias373
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
I missed the boat, fuark

Bought a small position in SOXL yesterday @ $57.. rip
If only someone spent the last 2 years telling you
post 1703833001 07-18-2024, 01:00 PM
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#6238
  1. Elias373
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
PLTR refuses to close below 28$ this thing is about to blast off after earnings.
Hnngg I can only get so erect...
post 1703854301 07-18-2024, 08:10 PM
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#6239
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
FNMA/FMCC up nearly 50% since that 6/21 crash lmao. I am telling y'all its a giant Trump trade. Trump wrote a letter to Rand about releasing them, its in the 2025 whatever that was playbook fukin thing to privatize the GSEs, John Paulson has a huge stake and he's on Trumps short list for Treasury Secretary. Ackman who has been very vocal in supporting Trump has a 10% stake in each GSE. This should have been done far before 2020 and now its a waiting game. Dems might choose to get the ball rolling before next president is seated so they can dictate the terms, but pretty much regardless getting released is a huge benefit to common shares. There are very few release situations where commons don't see a quick 10x from the current measly $1.50 OR you can still buy preferred shares at 15% of face value with 35% dividend once they are paying again. Preferred are the ultimate safe bet as they cannot be diluted and any haircuts to face value have to be agreed upon by majority of holders of each series. FMCC is still growing at around a 3% clip with a market cap of $910 Million. Each quarter they are pulling down around 2.5 billion and have $50 Billion in the bank. The value of these companies once they are returned to private hands cannot be overstated at this point. Their profits will obviously shrink once they are paying dividends to preferred shares (something like $250m a quarter) and common share dividends will be coming at some point, but when you are looking at $10 billion annual profits vs a company market cap at less than $1 billion it seems like a no brainer to want a piece of that. A super conservative P/E of 10 with an estimated earnings of $5 billion (half of current earnings adjusted for dividend payments and higher serious delinquency leading to higher provisions for credit losses) that would put market cap at $50B. Assuming government exercises their warrants for 80% of the company to allow their release that would still give common shares a value of $11 not accounting for the $50B in the bank or the fact that markets are forward looking and their growth would help expand their multiple with time. Freddie is also adding 2nd home loans to their product offerings and once private they will be allowed to keep a significantly larger number of loans on their own books which would bump their margins up considerably.

TLDR FMCC/FNMA future is looking bright and I anticipate $15-20/share first year of release and $30-40 within 1-2 years of getting the government out of their business. I am guessing Preferred shares with 7% or greater interest rates will end up being above face value shortly after the first quarter of dividends start rolling out. I'm over here just salivating at the idea of writing over 100 CCs on those bishes hnnnnnnng.

But who nose. I know 0 about his VP pick and he can still likely throw this election I am certain. Also following the shooting it seems like Dems have glossed over the fact most of them wanted Biden gone and suddenly are quiet about that. I liked it better when Dems were in chaos trying to decide if they force him out or not. I didn't want them to decide to run someone else, but I liked that they all were talking about doing it
Don't forget the ending of the chevron deference.

The last two days have been painful on my tech calls but I sleep easy at night knowing Fannie and Freddie will put me into the 7 figure club.
post 1703856871 07-18-2024, 09:13 PM
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#6240
  1. heiltrump2024
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@ Rob, how do you buy preferred shares of FMCC/FNMA? Do you suggest one over the other?
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