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» Math/Philsophy bros GTFIH for a simple problem that will blow your mind
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post 1522869891 10-17-2017, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted By KMadigan777
Exactly, and if you know that scenario, you should see why the right answer to this is 1/3.

Imagine a similar problem, if its heads, you wake up once, asked question, then go to sleep until its over. If its tails they wake you up 1000 times to ask you a question before its over. Whats more likely, they are talking to you, and its its the 1/1000 that it was heads, or 999/1000 that this is just a tails interview?
The coin chance didn't change though lol
post 1522869991 10-17-2017, 01:37 AM
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"What is your credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?"

The question is quite clear. What day she woke up on is completely irrelevant. In fact, even if the days were stretched to 150 possible days instead of 3, it wouldn't change the matter.

There is a 1/2 chance that it landed on heads. It ends there. The question is answered.

She wakes up on Monday, the coin chance is 1/2.
She wakes up on Tuesday, the coin chance is 1/2.

The answer to the question will never change. It'll stay 1/2.
post 1522870091 10-17-2017, 01:39 AM
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Originally Posted By dbluevette
I have a good feeling the misc is going to figure this out shortly.
I already fukin dun did tole yo ass the explanation
post 1522871011 10-17-2017, 02:06 AM
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Originally Posted By dbluevette
I have a good feeling the misc is going to figure this out shortly.
1/2
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post 1522871241 10-17-2017, 02:17 AM
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It's 50%. There's no way of knowing what day it is, or if the second day wil happen at all. All we know is a coin was flipped, and the odds of that coin are 50/50

Oh and 288 because there are no parentheses putting the (9+3) in the denominator so we have to assume it's a separate term and multiply
post 1522871311 10-17-2017, 02:19 AM
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The plane cant take off because its wheels are spinning on the conveyor belt
post 1522871771 10-17-2017, 02:36 AM
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Originally Posted By IPoopStandingUp
The plane cant take off because its wheels are spinning on the conveyor belt
how long is the treadmill?
post 1522871821 10-17-2017, 02:38 AM
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good thread reminds me of this

post 1522872241 10-17-2017, 02:53 AM
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1/3
We're all gonna make it.
post 1522873361 10-17-2017, 03:27 AM
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Could be 1/3. But logically she knows heads/tails is 50/50 so when she wakes up not knowing the day she's still gonna think 1/2 anyways
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post 1522874241 10-17-2017, 03:58 AM
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Misclarian number probability says the answer is 1/2 and that's the best approach we have, as long as the three-hundred-fifty degree approximation method is used. Stay safe brahs.
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post 1522874271 10-17-2017, 04:00 AM
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Originally Posted By IPoopStandingUp
The plane cant take off because its wheels are spinning on the conveyor belt
Plane will definitely take off because it can reach 288 mph on the treadmill but only after the coin flip.
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post 1522874791 10-17-2017, 04:13 AM
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Originally Posted By BigAlBrah
good thread reminds me of this

Came here to post this, repped because you were first.
Eat in a deficit to lose weight.
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post 1522885671 10-17-2017, 07:37 AM
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Great thread and problem. Any miscers able to successfully defend 1/3? Curious to hear more arguments from both sides.
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Nullius in verba
post 1522886011 10-17-2017, 07:41 AM
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#75
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wats the amnesia drug called? askin for my boy.
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post 1522886301 10-17-2017, 07:45 AM
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#76
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Originally Posted By numberguy12
Great thread and problem. Any miscers able to successfully defend 1/3? Curious to hear more arguments from both sides.
Don't have time to closely examine this but if this is a variant of the Monty Hall problem it all comes down to reduction of choices after a choice not affecting the odds of the chosen group and unchosen group.

The way to counteract intuition is to increase the choices to 1 billion. Clearly you can't be right 50% of the time on your first guess and that does not change if I eliminate 999,999,9998 choices from the group you did not choose leaving just 2 choices, the initial and 1 remaining after elimination.
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post 1522889801 10-17-2017, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12
Great thread and problem. Any miscers able to successfully defend 1/3? Curious to hear more arguments from both sides.
There are three events that would cause you to wake up:
1. Coin was tails, and it's Monday.
2. Coin was tails, and it's Tuesday.
3. Coin was heads, and it's Monday.

Probability(3) = Probability(1) because it's a fair coin. Probability(2) = Probability(1) because when you wake up the chance that it is Monday = chance that it is Tuesday because you can't tell the difference between them.

So, P(1) = P(3) = P(2) = 1/3. (Because P(1)+P(2)+P(3) = 1 aka 100%).

Edit: Sorry, P(2) = P(1) is the second statement, not P(2) = P(3).
post 1522890051 10-17-2017, 08:18 AM
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Originally Posted By nosirrahx
Don't have time to closely examine this but if this is a variant of the Monty Hall problem it all comes down to reduction of choices after a choice not affecting the odds of the chosen group and unchosen group.

The way to counteract intuition is to increase the choices to 1 billion. Clearly you can't be right 50% of the time on your first guess and that does not change if I eliminate 999,999,9998 choices from the group you did not choose leaving just 2 choices, the initial and 1 remaining after elimination.
My first thought was Monty Hall as well, but thinking about it, not sure that scenario and logic are as applicable to this problem. Particularly, when the host reveals the door in Monty Hall, new information is being produced. In terms of extending the trials on this one, these were my thoughts from an earlier post,
Originally Posted By numberguy12
Or is it still just the 1/2 and not 1/1000. Why consider all the extra tails wakeups when she knows that her wakeup, of which she has no information about, could easily have been the other half of the 50/50 coin flip?

Take your example further for emphasis and say there were a billion (10^9) wake ups for tails, and 1 for heads. Say you were awoken as in the experiment. And then it was revealed it was heads. Would you really be so shocked that some astronomical chance (about 1 in a billion) happened? I don't think I would be, given the premise of the experiment- it was just the other half of the 50/50 coin flip.
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post 1522890661 10-17-2017, 08:26 AM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12
My first thought was Monty Hall as well, but thinking about it, not sure that scenario and logic are as applicable to this problem. Particularly, when the host reveals the door in Monty Hall, new information is being produced. In terms of extending the trials on this one, these were my thoughts from an earlier post,
When I am free later I am going to read through the problem and map it out. I always love problems that force intuition to do battle with logic.
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post 1522890911 10-17-2017, 08:29 AM
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Pretty sure flipping a coin won't wake up Sleeping Beauty, but only the kiss of a handsome young prince.



OP, you are dumb.
Best thread: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=168274783
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post 1522891161 10-17-2017, 08:31 AM
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#81
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Originally Posted By LtGoose
Left to right, PEMDAS

M comes before D so multiplication before division brah
while wrong, you still managed to get the correct answer as

[48/2(9+3)]

Brackets first

48/2(12)

however the division sign indicates the 48 is divided by 2*12 as the brackets should be around 48/2 if that was to be divided alone. or the 12 would have to be above the 2

therefore the answer is 2
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post 1522891831 10-17-2017, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted By HockeyBacon18
while wrong, you still managed to get the correct answer as

[48/2(9+3)]

Brackets first

48/2(12)

however the division sign indicates the 48 is divided by 2*12 as the brackets should be around 48/2 if that was to be divided alone. or the 12 would have to be above the 2

therefore the answer is 2
Whatever the result would have been if you changed brackets, as it stands, the expression evaluates to 288 under PEMDAS convention. Multiplication and division in PEMDAS are given the same rank, so you evaluate from left to right. But this is off topic from the OP problem.
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post 1522892651 10-17-2017, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted By tylerluxai
switch(heads) {
case Monday: return .5;
case Tuesday: return .5;
case Wednesday: return .5;
}

No matter what it's always 50/50 because the coin was flipped one time. What am I missing, OP? I don't see how it could even be 1/3
Easy man. Put yourself in that situation. You wake up mysteriously, what is ONE THING you know now different than when the experiment started? YOU ARE NOW AWAKE. There are 2 times you wake up when its tails, 1 times its head. Therefore it's 2/3 this is a tails awakening.
post 1522894361 10-17-2017, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted By KMadigan777
Easy man. Put yourself in that situation. You wake up mysteriously, what is ONE THING you know now different than when the experiment started? YOU ARE NOW AWAKE . There are 2 times you wake up when its tails, 1 times its head. Therefore it's 2/3 this is a tails awakening.
This is not new information though. She knew before going into the experiment, that she would be awoken at least once. So no new information is being produced.

To look at it another way, say there was some way that the experiment could have occurred without her waking up.Thenshe would have acquired new information the second she woke up.

As for your second part, I see your reasoning, but I am suspecting the sample space does not work in that easy of a fashion to consider the 3 possibilities like that. I'm just trying to find a more exact way to refute it. If only for the reason that I see absolutely no good refutation for the 1/2 argument.
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post 1522895681 10-17-2017, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12
This is not new information though. She knew before going into the experiment, that she would be awoken at least once. So no new information is being produced.

To look at it another way, say there was some way that the experiment could have occurred without her waking up.Thenshe would have acquired new information the second she woke up.

As for your second part, I see your reasoning, but I am suspecting the sample space does not work in that easy of a fashion to consider the 3 possibilities like that. I'm just trying to find a more exact way to refute it. If only for the reason that I see absolutely no good refutation for the 1/2 argument.
it is new information. now that she's awake she knows there are 3 possibilities: it's Monday and the coin was heads, it's Monday and the coin was tails or it's Tuesday and the coin was tails. The fact that she's awake, she knows that it's not Tuesdayandthe coin was heads.

Now that she's awake, she also knows that it is 2x more likely it's monday than it is tuesday so you can't say it doesn't introduce new information.
post 1522896691 10-17-2017, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted By iceypain
it is new information. now that she's awake she knows there are 3 possibilities: it's Monday and the coin was heads, it's Monday and the coin was tails or it's Tuesday and the coin was tails.The fact that she's awake, she knows that it's not Tuesday and the coin was heads.
See what you are saying, but this is not new information. She knew going into the experiment that she never could wake up on Tuesday with heads.

She knew there were 3 possibilities all along.
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post 1522898311 10-17-2017, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted By skunkshark
There are three events that would cause you to wake up:
1. Coin was tails, and it's Monday.
2. Coin was tails, and it's Tuesday.
3. Coin was heads, and it's Monday.

Probability(3) = Probability(1) because it's a fair coin. Probability(2) = Probability(1) because when you wake up the chance that it is Monday = chance that it is Tuesday because you can't tell the difference between them.

So, P(1) = P(3) = P(2) = 1/3. (Because P(1)+P(2)+P(3) = 1 aka 100%).

Edit: Sorry, P(2) = P(1) is the second statement, not P(2) = P(3).
I am loling because I am imagining the time that you put into making this garbally gook nonsense. But in the end you just pull apetitio principiiand say "each of these factors I made up must be 1/3 because I made up three factors."

lol, just lol at you.

And lol at anyone else that still thinks it is 1/3. OP, I am still waiting for you to accept my challenge and show me one serious person who says it is 1/3 (hint: sending me a link to a flat earthers msg board doesn't count).
mo e
post 1522900691 10-17-2017, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted By KMadigan777
I recently just came across this, called the sleeping beauty problem.

"Sleeping Beauty volunteers to undergo the following experiment and is told all of the following details: On Sunday she will be put to sleep. Once or twice, during the experiment, Beauty will be awakened, interviewed, and put back to sleep with an amnesia-inducing drug that makes her forget that awakening. A fair coin will be tossed to determine which experimental procedure to undertake: if the coin comes up heads, Beauty will be awakened and interviewed on Monday only. If the coin comes up tails, she will be awakened and interviewed on Monday and Tuesday. In either case, she will be awakened on Wednesday without interview and the experiment ends.

Any time Sleeping Beauty is awakened and interviewed she will not be able to tell which day it is or whether she has been awakened before. During the interview Beauty is asked: "What is your credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?"."


So...the question is, if you were to wake up at any one time during the experiment, is it 50/50 it was heads (initial condition of experiment), or is it 1/3 (2x likely you are woken for tails)?

Apparently it is actually a pretty big unsolved debate in Epistemology and mathematics, with people vehemently either on the 1/2 or 1/3 side.
The problem is the fallacy of the question. It's unable to be answered by its terms.

IMO it's 2 separate happenings. The fair coin flip is 50/50 and there is also a 2/3 that it is Monday or Tuesday at the same time.
post 1522901401 10-17-2017, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12
See what you are saying, but this is not new information. She knew going into the experiment that she never could wake up on Tuesday with heads.

She knew there were 3 possibilities all along.
so if you wake up and you know it's Monday for sure, you know there's a 50:50 chance the coins was heads/tails; but you don't--there's also a possibility that it's Tuesday and you know if it's Tuesday the coin is definitely not heads so how can it still be 50:50?
post 1522902511 10-17-2017, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted By Greg14
i'm sure miscers will solve an unsolved math question when some can't even figure out fukkin 7th grade math (48/2(9+3))

this should be good
the answer is 2 brah
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