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Forum » The birthday paradox
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Thread: The birthday paradox

post 1626959833 12-29-2020, 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted By mesobuild⏩
You're right. It's 50% because any number of people ends up with either a match or no match. 2 choices. 50% chance.

Quod erat demonstrandum.
Trump is 50% a communist spy because he is either a spy or not. I don't like those odds. Better get rid of him.
post 1626959993 12-29-2020, 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
My statement that it is a nonrandom sample applies here kind of too. A classroom has people mostly of a certain age and conditions during that period may have favored some months over others or something.
Absolutely, I agree, and would accept this answer. Heck for all we know, maybe for some odd reason he was giving a lecture on probability to a room of full of Scorpios at some kind of astrological convention. I just like the twin example because it’s something he can see and immediately tell his calculation isn’t correct, without much complexity.
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post 1626960563 12-29-2020, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted By optimisticAir⏩
lol dude any number less than 1 when raised to an exponent greater than 1 will become SMALLER in value.

i might leave this forum
What part of "either it is or it isn't" don't you understand?
post 1626960663 12-29-2020, 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12⏩
Absolutely, I agree, and would accept this answer. Heck for all we know, maybe for some odd reason he was giving a lecture on probability to a room of full of Scorpios at some kind of astrological convention. I just like the twin example because it’s something he can see and immediately tell his calculation isn’t correct, without much complexity.
Another illustrative statistical "paradox" is levys arcsin law aka law of long leads.

http://www.math.unl.edu/~sdunbar1/Pr...behaved%20coin.

The law of long leads, more properly known as the arcsine law, says that in coin-tossing games, a surprisingly large fraction of sample paths leave one player in the lead almost all the time, and in very few cases will the lead change sides and fluctuate in the manner that is naively expected of a well-behaved coin.
post 1626960703 12-29-2020, 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted By mesobuild⏩
You're right. It's 50% because any number of people ends up with either a match or no match. 2 choices. 50% chance.

Quod erat demonstrandum.
I’m assuming this 50% thing throughout the thread is a troll, but tbh it’s a very common fallacy in probabilistic reasoning.

You can either get a spade or not get a spade by drawing a card from an ordinary shuffled deck of 52 cards. This does not mean the chances of drawing a spade are 50%.

An asteroid as big as the one that took out the dinosaurs can either hit earth tomorrow or not hit earth tomorrow. This doesn’t mean the chances are 50%.

The 50/50 fallacy, in my opinion, is why most people get Bertrand’s Box paradox wrong (which has come up on the misc before).
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post 1626961473 12-29-2020, 07:58 PM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
Another illustrative statistical "paradox" is levys arcsin law aka law of long leads.

http://www.math.unl.edu/~sdunbar1/Pr...behaved%20coin.

The law of long leads, more properly known as the arcsine law, says that in coin-tossing games, a surprisingly large fraction of sample paths leave one player in the lead almost all the time, and in very few cases will the lead change sides and fluctuate in the manner that is naively expected of a well-behaved coin.
Interdasting
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post 1626961783 12-29-2020, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12⏩
Interdasting
This is often taught to finance majors to be wary of people who are just "falling upward"
post 1626962413 12-29-2020, 08:08 PM
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Imagine the room is empty. People are waiting outside and walking inside one by one.

First person comes in, what are the odds he will match the birthday of anyone inside? 0/365
Second person comes in, his chances are now 1/365
Third person comes in, his chances of matching are 2/365.

When 25th person comes in, its unlikely that all the persons before will "survive" all the beforehand trials.
Does it make more sense now?
post 1626962673 12-29-2020, 08:11 PM
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Anyone heard the quote "The difference between ice and snow, is a matter of architecture."
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post 1626962883 12-29-2020, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
This is often taught to finance majors to be wary of people who are just "falling upward"
Bro I always wanted to start a thread on college majors, and core concepts you learned in college from your major.

But I never wanted to post it in the Misc section cuz within minutes it'll be on page 2, always wanted to start it in the Politics section, but afraid a mod would just move it here.
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post 1626963753 12-29-2020, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted By Kapetan⏩
Imagine the room is empty. People are waiting outside and walking inside one by one.

First person comes in, what are the odds he will match the birthday of anyone inside? 0/365
Second person comes in, his chances are now 1/365
Third person comes in, his chances of matching are 2/365.

When 25th person comes in, its unlikely that all the persons before will "survive" all the beforehand trials.
Does it make more sense now?
The probability the first person matches the bday of first inside is 1.
post 1626964293 12-29-2020, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted By Glutebrahhh⏩
Riddle me this: on your birthday you're 0 years old, and you remain 0 years old until after 1 year elapses. However, after your first birthday, you'll be 1 years old, even though you'll have lived 2 full years by your second birthday. So on your 24rd birthday, you've been alive for 24 full years, but you'll continue to call yourself 24, when really you're working on your 25th year of life. So shouldn't our age always be 1+ whatever our last birthday was?
So if you've got $1,100,000 in the bank do you call yourself a multi-millionaire because you're working towards your 2nd million? Or do you only consider yourself to be a multi millionaire when you've actually got $2 million like a normal person?

Brb I've been alive for 24 years but I'm gonna call myself a 25 year old. GTFO and negged
post 1626985573 12-30-2020, 05:25 AM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
Another illustrative statistical "paradox" is levys arcsin law aka law of long leads.

http://www.math.unl.edu/~sdunbar1/Pr...behaved%20coin.

The law of long leads, more properly known as the arcsine law, says that in coin-tossing games, a surprisingly large fraction of sample paths leave one player in the lead almost all the time, and in very few cases will the lead change sides and fluctuate in the manner that is naively expected of a well-behaved coin.
how you even know of this stuff brah
post 1626985903 12-30-2020, 05:33 AM
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Originally Posted By zknarc⏩
Humans are terrible at probability.

Then again, people can't work out of a plane will take off on a treadmill and many people think mRNA vaccines change DNA so maybe humans are just retarded.
A plane will not take off on a treadmill assuming the treadmill is stationary and there is no wind blowing towards the treadmill. The plane's wheels spinning on the treadmill has nothing to do with the plane being able to take off.
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post 1626986223 12-30-2020, 05:45 AM
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post 1626986723 12-30-2020, 05:59 AM
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The one i always like to spout off to sound learn'ed is the uniqueness of a random card shuffle, in that the particular order a recently shuffled deck of cards has likely never occurred in human history, nor will the order of the shuffle likely ever occur again in the future



Granted on any given day I'm harnessing at best single digit brain utilization but if that is even remotely factual statistically, mind nuked; i.e huge if true
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post 1626986993 12-30-2020, 06:03 AM
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This part made it make a bit more sense to me:

There are 253 comparisons made which covers more than 50% of the number of days of the year.

I've never been good with probability though haha
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post 1626987493 12-30-2020, 06:13 AM
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Originally Posted By thedarrenestes⏩
The one i always like to spout off to sound learn'ed is the uniqueness of a random card shuffle, in that the particular order a recently shuffled deck of cards has likely never occurred in human history, nor will the order of the shuffle likely ever occur again in the future



Granted on any given day I'm harnessing at best single digit brain utilization but if that is even remotely factual statistically, mind nuked; i.e huge if true
Yeah I like the deck of cards one too. The exact number of ways to shuffle a deck is 52! (factorial 52) or roughly 8x10^67. That's a bigger number than the estimated number of atoms on earth. It's a FAR bigger number than the amount of seconds that the universe has existed (the amount of seconds would be 4.4x10^17 assuming 14 billion years). That means you can shuffle a deck of cards once every second since the big bang and you still wouldn't be anywhere close to coming to the amount of shuffles possible.
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post 1626987563 12-30-2020, 06:14 AM
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Originally Posted By tehgosu⏩
how you even know of this stuff brah
it's called reading

try it sometime
post 1626987983 12-30-2020, 06:24 AM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12⏩
Prob = 1-(365!/342!)/365^23
isn't it simply

1/365 to the power of two? so not 50% (1/2)


or if the problem asked whats the chance of all of them having the same birthdate it would be 1/365 to the power of 23


assuming that the only variable combinations are date-month combos

if you assume year as well, chance is even lower and what is a reasonable upper-lower bound for the year
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post 1626988333 12-30-2020, 06:31 AM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
Another illustrative statistical "paradox" is levys arcsin law aka law of long leads.

http://www.math.unl.edu/~sdunbar1/Pr...behaved%20coin.

The law of long leads, more properly known as the arcsine law, says that in coin-tossing games, a surprisingly large fraction of sample paths leave one player in the lead almost all the time, and in very few cases will the lead change sides and fluctuate in the manner that is naively expected of a well-behaved coin.
Originally Posted By wincel⏩
it's called reading

try it sometime
now now, not everyone did a Math major
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post 1626988413 12-30-2020, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
now now, not everyone did a Math major
They don't teach that in math class.
post 1626988473 12-30-2020, 06:34 AM
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Originally Posted By yeshli2nuts⏩
Yeah I like the deck of cards one too. The exact number of ways to shuffle a deck is 52! (factorial 52) or roughly 8x10^67.It's a FAR bigger number than the amount of seconds that the universe has existed (the amount of seconds would be 4.4x10^17 assuming 14 billion years).
Just fukkin lol at maths

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post 1626988673 12-30-2020, 06:38 AM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
They don't teach that in math class.
perhaps, mirin topic reading then


btw, is my memory serving me correct?

I remember reading a post of yours years ago about how you did math but you also thought you should have gone on to go to medical school

false memory or good memory
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post 1626989093 12-30-2020, 06:45 AM
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post 1626989173 12-30-2020, 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
perhaps, mirin topic reading then


btw, is my memory serving me correct?

I remember reading a post of yours years ago about how you did math but you also thought you should have gone on to go to medical school

false memory or good memory
good memory

also creepy af
post 1626989713 12-30-2020, 06:54 AM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
good memory

also creepy af
I was simply miscing, no stalker of course


I am really good at remembering stuff


problem is I also remember irrelevant (for my life) things
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post 1626989783 12-30-2020, 06:55 AM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
I was simply miscing, no stalker of course


I am really good at remembering stuff


problem is I also remember irrelevant (for my life) things
You'd do well in medicine.
post 1626989973 12-30-2020, 06:59 AM
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Originally Posted By wincel⏩
You'd do well in medicine.
yep, currently in software engineering


I also have an offer for med sKool
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post 1626993913 12-30-2020, 08:03 AM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
I am really good at remembering stuff


problem is I also remember irrelevant (for my life) things
same chit with me
I can remember some things to very detail (vision, smell, sound, feeling) whether important or not, but then again sometimes I can't remember immediately what I did day before.
The problem is that often I don't choose what I'll remember good, mind just picks it by it's will.
It's a good/bad thing, feels like curse
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