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» Billionaire: "Now is the best time to buy a house"
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post 1693614253 11-19-2023, 12:51 PM
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#61
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Originally Posted By Anachron
I chuckled when I read the bolded.

Yup, rentard LARPing as a homeowner confirmed.
It’s SO STRESSFUL bro lol :]
post 1693614343 11-19-2023, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01
Blackrock definitely is not trying to buy up all single family houses. In fact total hedge fund house buying accounted for less than 1% of all single family houses sold this year
That's only a half truth. They own a ton of stock in companies that absolutely do.
post 1693614353 11-19-2023, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted By Godfrd824
Did it? Because if we look at any house in any desirable area, it looks like things have just gone up and up.
yes, 2008 was a massive housing crash, home values went way down. google it for a quick easy chart.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1693614393 11-19-2023, 12:53 PM
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She’s right that there is pent up demand and as long as houses remain unaffordable demand will continue to increase.

Her statement about interest rates and prices is nonsense though.

There are massive inflationary and deflationary forces at work. Where interest rates will be in the future is such a complex question even the most informed folks are just making educated guesses.

A decoupling of globalization and war time spending will lead to persistently high interest rates. Technology, an attack on private property, and a return to globalization will lead to reduced interest rates.

Place your bets accordingly.
post 1693614413 11-19-2023, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted By bsrkoacar2
That's only a half truth. They own a ton of stock in companies that absolutely do
No, it’s a full truth. The majority of single family home buying by investors is by mom and pop investors. That less than 1% figure includes companies owned by Blackrock because that would fall into the “hedge fund” category

You guys should definitely do your research before parroting dumb chit you hear on social media
post 1693614443 11-19-2023, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted By bsrkoacar2
That's only a half truth. They own a ton of stock in companies that absolutely do
I've got deeps on ignore from some other thread. you're talking to a mental midget. He wouldn't understand things like that or that 1% could be high RELATIVELY, even though it's not in aggregate.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1693614463 11-19-2023, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01
No, it’s a full truth. The majority of single family home buying by investors is by mom and pop investors. That less than 1% figure includes companies owned by Blackrock because that would fall into the “hedge fund” category

You guys should definitely do your research before parroting dumb chit you hear on social media
They own 11% share in KB home and their stock surged like 50% this year. I guess they dont technically buy family homes but they build them. Similar though
post 1693614563 11-19-2023, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted By bsrkoacar2
They own 11% share in KB home and their stock surged like 50% this year. I guess they do technically buy family homes but they build them. Similar though
That doesn’t change what I said in the slightest

Anyone in the industry can tell you hedge fund buying is way down

Sorry bud :]
post 1693614623 11-19-2023, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted By Masterchieffer
She’s right that there is pent up demand and as long as houses remain unaffordable demand will continue to increase.

Her statement about interest rates and prices is nonsense though.

There are massive inflationary and deflationary forces at work. Where interest rates will be in the future is such a complex question even the most informed folks are just making educated guesses.

A decoupling of globalization and war time spending will lead to persistently high interest rates. Technology, an attack on private property, and a return to globalization will lead to reduced interest rates.

Place your bets accordingly.
the pent up demand as long as housing is unaffordable is interesting - what if the prices go down from a harsh economic recession, wouldn't demand evaporate?

I get that there is demand there but it seems like it could evaporate quickly?
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1693614753 11-19-2023, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01
That doesn’t change what I said in the slightest

Anyone in the industry can tell you hedge fund buying is way down

Sorry bud :]
Does that change their long term plan? I don't think so
post 1693614823 11-19-2023, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron
I think this is what he meant by "stress", getting bodied by people who actually know what they are talking about, to the point where he was forced to "ignore".
What
post 1693614893 11-19-2023, 01:03 PM
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going to check out from the thread - not all of us lead such pathetic lives that we spend our sunday afternoons trolling.

Hopefully there's some educated responses in here later
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1693614963 11-19-2023, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted By bsrkoacar2
Does that change their long term plan? I don't think so
I mean it certainly changes the common complaints like the ones made ITT

Getting mad at Blackrock for “buying up all the houses” when they clearly are not

In fact, their investment into companies that are BUILDING single family houses is actually helping alleviate the issue by providing desperately needed housing supply
post 1693615073 11-19-2023, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn
yes, 2008 was a massive housing crash, home values went way down. google it for a quick easy chart.
My father bought a house in 2003 for $168k, that house sold in 2021 for $489k. We lived in that house, he rented part of that house, he retired off that one house. Had he put up the $6k he had to buy that house with in index funds, he would still be working his $12/h job.
When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.
post 1693615283 11-19-2023, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted By Godfrd824
My father bought a house in 2003 for $168k, that house sold in 2021 for $489k. We lived in that house, he rented part of that house, he retired off that one house. Had he put up the $6k he had to buy that house with in index funds, he would still be working his $12/h job.
Based father

Can’t believe he didn’t just rent and invest the difference smh
post 1693615493 11-19-2023, 01:14 PM
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We had a “mini recession” not too long ago. The only reason why we haven’t seen a definite crash yet is because the Fed is continuing to push it off as long as possible. The crash is inevitable, and the longer the Fed pushes it off, the bigger it will be.

You have to understand first that the “business cycle”, or boom-burst, is created by government interference. Most mainstream economists won’t tell you this, because most of them are socialists who don’t want you to be convinced that the government should stop trying to manipulate the economy. Socialism is central planning, and the Federal Reserve is in the business of central planning.

The rates follow the consumer, the consumer doesn’t follow the rates. The fed is literally backwards from how the economy naturally works. So now they are going to have to lower interest rates, probably by the beginning of 2024, and that’s when we will see the crash.

This could be planned though. Most people don’t understand economics, including the mainstream economists. If a republican gets elected, you can bet your arse that the economy will crash, and they will blame the republican president or congress.

A simple way to see if house buying is worth it is to look at rentals. If rent is lower than a mortgage, don’t buy. If a mortgage is similar or lower than renting, buy. Currently rent is lower, although it is going up because people are resorting to renting. This is one of the reasons they will have to lower interest rates.
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post 1693615683 11-19-2023, 01:18 PM
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#77
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Originally Posted By Kraken
We had a “mini recession” not too long ago. The only reason why we haven’t seen a definite crash yet is because the Fed is continuing to push it off as long as possible. The crash is inevitable, and the longer the Fed pushes it off, the bigger it will be.

You have to understand first that the “business cycle”, or boom-burst, is created by government interference. Most mainstream economists won’t tell you this, because most of them are socialists who don’t want you to be convinced that the government should stop trying to manipulate the economy. Socialism is central planning, and the Federal Reserve is in the business of central planning.

Rates need to be low when people are Saving, and high when they are spending. The Fed is currently trying to get people to save while rates are high. It’s literally backwards from how the economy naturally works. So now they are going to have to lower interest rates, probably by the beginning of 2024, and that’s when we will see the crash.

This could be planned though. Most people don’t understand economics, including the mainstream economists. If a republican gets elected, you can bet your arse that the economy will crash, and they will blame the republican president or congress.

A simple way to see if house buying is worth it is to look at rentals. If rent is lower than a mortgage, don’t buy. If a mortgage is similar or lower than renting, buy. Currently rent is lower, although it is going up because people are resorting to renting. This is one of the reasons they will have to lower interest rates.
I agree with your entire post, other than when rates will drop.

I'm quite confident that rates will stay near current levels until at least Q3 2024, and then they're going to drop very slowly over the course of a couple years. We're in for a couple more years of mortgage rates being abobe 5%.

This is going to be a slog, and it's going to be tough to find better returns than Treasuries. That is, until things begin to break.
post 1693615833 11-19-2023, 01:20 PM
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Don't listen to that boomer. It's about to be a buyers' market.
post 1693616243 11-19-2023, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted By squantcher
Don't listen to that boomer. It's about to be a buyers' market.
Low supply

Rates about to go down

Yes, the signs are pointing to a buyers market for sure!!
post 1693616323 11-19-2023, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01
Low supply

Rates about to go down

Yes, the signs are pointing to a buyers market for sure!!
Mortgage rates aren't going down in a meaningful way for 18 months. By then the housing market will be much lower than it is now.
post 1693616563 11-19-2023, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens
Mortgage rates aren't going down in a meaningful way for 18 months. By then the housing market will be much lower than it is now.
I disagree, I think we will see the first dip early next year

And the market is already holding right now with the rates as high as they are. Any small dip will lead to a slow increase

If what you’re saying is correct we would be seeing the market plummeting again right now. It isn’t
post 1693616913 11-19-2023, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens
I agree with your entire post, other than when rates will drop.

I'm quite confident that rates will stay near current levels until at least Q3 2024, and then they're going to drop very slowly over the course of a couple years. We're in for a couple more years of mortgage rates being abobe 5%.
The Fed is in big trouble right now. As I mentioned in another thread, the current Fed Chairman, Powell, said that his policies won’t be determined by fiscal policy. That critical error has already been realized; The deficit is so big, and the rates so high, that the government is at a very high risk of default. The interest payments on the deficit is currently higher than total military spending. They recently tried to auction off the debt and it failed miserably. The US is stuck with the interest payments at high interest rates and it’s about to break the entire system. The failure to consider fiscal policy and the deficit created these high interest payments, which I think are at or close to $1 Trillion.

This is why I think the Fed will lower interest rates. The government over spent, over printed, and when it pushed interest rates up, it made the payments HUGE. It allowed the Fed to overspend and made a critical error balancing all of these things. If rates don’t come down soon, the Fed will default and possibly even collapse. It will be a huge “correction” for all of the bad decisions by the congress, president, and reserve.

We could possibly be headed for a depression, honestly. With the interest rates being so low for too long, massive overspending and debt…the correction is going to be nothing our generations have seen before. Bringing down the interest rates will, unfortunately, be the fix just so the Fed can pay it’s debts.

The final comment I’ll make is that it’s extremely frustrating that basic economics isn’t taught, because the average voter has lost any consideration of the federal debt at the polls. They think that the deficit is just some irrelevant number, and their lack of education is going to be our downfall.
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post 1693616963 11-19-2023, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01
I disagree, I think we will see the first dip early next year

And the market is already holding right now with the rates as high as they are. Any small dip will lead to a slow increase

If what you’re saying is correct we would be seeing the market plummeting again right now. It isn’t
Rates actually did drop in a somewhat meaningful way during the last couple weeks. They went from 8.5% to about 7.5%. The Federal Reserve has a long way to go before returning inflation to the 2% target though. Employment markets are just beginning to show their first signs of stress righth now, and inflation will not really be under control until many more people lose their jobs.
post 1693617193 11-19-2023, 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens
Rates actually did drop in a somewhat meaningful way during the last couple weeks. They went from 8.5% to about 7.5%. The Federal Reserve has a long way to go before returning inflation to the 2% target though. Employment markets are just beginning to show their first signs of stress righth now, and inflation will not really be under control until many more people lose their jobs.
That may be true but none of what you just said equals the housing market plummeting next year. It’s going to hold, if not slightly go back up

People who are in a good position to buy and who want to buy should looking for deals now. Sellers are giving concessions towards rate buy down and are also willing to do a lot more in repairs than they’ll be willing to do once the market picks up again next year
post 1693617283 11-19-2023, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens
Rates actually did drop in a somewhat meaningful way during the last couple weeks. They went from 8.5% to about 7.5%. The Federal Reserve has a long way to go before returning inflation to the 2% target though. Employment markets are just beginning to show their first signs of stress righth now, and inflation will not really be under control until many more people lose their jobs.
I don’t think the Fed has any intentions of lowering inflation to the normal 2% anymore. The fed has realized that raising inflation for revenue is easier than raising taxes, and this is the new tactic. Most folks don’t understand that inflation is taxation without representation, and with multiple wars to fight, they don’t want the cash flow to stop.

Mises and Rothbard both wrote extensively on this subject. That governments would try to inflate the currency as a “tax alternative” to fund wars. Looks like they nailed it. That’s exactly what the Biden regime is doing.
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
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post 1693617333 11-19-2023, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted By Kraken
The Fed is in big trouble right now. As I mentioned in another thread, the current Fed Chairman, Powell, said that his policies won’t be determined by fiscal policy. That critical error has already been realized; The deficit is so big, and the rates so high, that the government is at a very high risk of default. The interest payments on the deficit is currently higher than total military spending. They recently tried to auction off the debt and it failed miserably. The US is stuck with the interest payments at high interest rates and it’s about to break the entire system. The failure to consider fiscal policy and the deficit created these high interest payments, which I think are at or close to $1 Trillion.

This is why I think the Fed will lower interest rates. The government over spent, over printed, and when it pushed interest rates up, it made the payments HUGE. It allowed the Fed to overspend and made a critical error balancing all of these things. If rates don’t come down soon, the Fed will default and possibly even collapse. It will be a huge “correction” for all of the bad decisions by the congress, president, and reserve.

We could possibly be headed for a depression, honestly. With the interest rates being so low for too long, massive overspending and debt…the correction is going to be nothing our generations have seen before. Bringing down the interest rates will, unfortunately, be the fix just so the Fed can pay it’s debts.

The final comment I’ll make is that it’s extremely frustrating that basic economics isn’t taught, because the average voter has lost any consideration of the federal debt at the polls. They think that the deficit is just some irrelevant number, and their lack of education is going to be our downfall.
Powell said that because he knows he has no control over Congress. The best he can do is react to the situations he's given.

My guess is that Congress will finally pass a big deficit reduction bill during Q1 2024, and this is when both stocks and housing will begin to steadily lose value in a significant way. But this still doesn't mean rates are going below 6% anytime soon. After the elections obviously political pressure could force a change, but that's still 14 months before a potential new president could be in place.
post 1693617373 11-19-2023, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01
People who are in a good position to buy and who want to buy should looking for deals now.
Can you explain how you know now is a good time to buy? Because my research concludes the opposite.
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post 1693617413 11-19-2023, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted By Kraken
I don’t think the Fed has any intentions of lowering inflation to the normal 2% anymore. The fed has realized that raising inflation for revenue is easier than raising taxes, and this is the new tactic. Most folks don’t understand that inflation is taxation without representation, and with multiple wars to fight, they don’t want the cash flow to stop.

Mises and Rothbard both wrote extensively on this subject. That governments would try to inflate the currency as a “tax alternative” to fund wars. Looks like they nailed it. That’s exactly what the Biden regime is doing.
My issue is why doesn't anyone do something about it? It's obvious to anyone who is paying attention. Where are the regulators that step in and say wealth is shifting by coercion?
Boycott foodservice industry crew
post 1693617503 11-19-2023, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted By Kraken
I don’t think the Fed has any intentions of lowering inflation to the normal 2% anymore. The fed has realized that raising inflation for revenue is easier than raising taxes, and this is the new tactic. Most folks don’t understand that inflation is taxation without representation, and with multiple wars to fight, they don’t want the cash flow to stop.

Mises and Rothbard both wrote extensively on this subject. That governments would try to inflate the currency as a “tax alternative” to fund wars. Looks like they nailed it. That’s exactly what the Biden regime is doing.
I don't think they'll lower it to 2% necessarily, but they clearly are going to keep policy restrictive until a point where they're no longer worried about inflation flare ups. We are far from this point still. Poor people no longer have excess savings, but wealthy people are still flush with cash, and a lot more will need to be siphoned out.
post 1693617713 11-19-2023, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted By Kraken
Can you explain how you know now is a good time to buy? Because my research concludes the opposite.
Sure

Rates will go down next year

Many buyers that are sitting on the sidelines will bite the bullet and buy

Housing supply is still low

Prices will be steady until rates start to come down, and will then creep back up

As I’ve already said, buyers now can take advantage of sellers giving concessions as well as being more willing to do repairs

Next year, when I believe the market will pick up, sellers will be less willing to do this because there will be more available buyers

I’m a broker and I see hundreds of transactions a year

I’m very surprised how prices have still held even with rates as high as they are, but they have. It highlights how bad the supply issue really is

Right now I’ve been able to find and get others incredible deals that will not be available as often next year

Hope that helps!
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