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Forum » Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels
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Thread: Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels

post 1659603153 04-13-2022, 07:06 PM
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#91
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Crap, I have to step my game up.

Just LOL @ OP going "listing my 3rd now".

Didn't realize this was amateur hour.
You’re super generous even believing that he has owned 1 property lol
post 1659603213 04-13-2022, 07:07 PM
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Missed out on a fixer upper for 315k in Ohio. It was on 14 acres though.


Rural could you imagine having that kind of land? It was gone within 24 hours. We are trying to find anything decent north of 1 acre. I at least want some chickens. But these things are just gone in the blink of an eye.
post 1659603833 04-13-2022, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
And it is the second one. Dollar devaluation pushing people to trade their fiat for as many physically tangible assets as possible. RE, unlike most tangible assets, can act as a store of wealth and a source of income via rents or production.
Strong this.

I personally know a few people who bought a second home for this very reason.

Why not buy when interest rates are stupid low and your government is going QE crazy? It just made sense.

You would think that with interest rates going up, this would have all calmed down, but nope, inflation continues to be insane.

I really think inflation is the main driver of the housing market at the moment.
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post 1659603923 04-13-2022, 07:18 PM
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Boyos, if you ain't getting that 60% discount, you done overpaid, gnome what I'm sayin...???....
Everything I post is satire.
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post 1659604993 04-13-2022, 07:35 PM
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This is my 10th year of waiting for the housing market to collapse
post 1659605063 04-13-2022, 07:37 PM
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Wallstreet sees a long term trend.

Home construction rates never rebounded after 2008.

That was fine when millennials were perfectly happy with apartment living in the city.

COVID has massively accelerated their move to the suburbs.

There's just not enough housing in the right areas, and because supply chains will be a mess until at least 2024, there won't be enough in the future.

The drop in sales is purely a supply limitation.
post 1659605853 04-13-2022, 07:57 PM
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lol wtf is it with these "housing crash" threads every day
post 1659606223 04-13-2022, 08:07 PM
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What is this? thread 10,000 about the market crashing? meanwhile I've been collecting rent from my tenants for years at 1700x3 and 1400x3 per month while they pay down the mortage on my buildings. It's never a bad time to buy. You could buy at the very tip before a crash and still do well if you're doing rentals. You won't get the appreciation, but cash flow is king. It's only a loss if you sell.


Just remember that if the market does crash I'm buying all the houses around you from the rental income. You're not going to be buying anything on your 3.5 FHA vs my all cash offer. That's assuming the bank will even write you a loan as they usually don't want to loan during a crash.


Rent is due at the 1st of the month or you're on the street boyo.
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post 1659606343 04-13-2022, 08:10 PM
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Market will not crash, I've been studying the market fundamentals for a year now. It's going to take years for inventory to build up to even a balanced market which is the most important factor.

We'd be lucky if we get a correction... not of reduced sale prices correction but to normal appreciation rates, like 5% a year.

Also even if it crashed it takes years for prices to bottom out, but there's no fundamental catalyst that would cause it to crash. You had the pumping trillions of free money into the economy, asset prices rose accordingly.

If you insist on coping still after I've provided you this great revelation review the average sale price over history. Also note that during the crash prices were lower due to foreclosures/distressed property sales, it's not like great properties were getting steeply discounted in mass. But there is not that type of risky lending anymore, certainty not on the effect it would take to crash the market.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS
post 1659606383 04-13-2022, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
Market will not crash, I've been studying the market fundamentals for a year now. It's going to take years for inventory to build up to even a balanced market which is the most important factor.

We'd be lucky if we get a correction... not of reduced sale prices correction but to normal appreciation rates, like 5% a year.

Also even if crashed it takes years for prices to bottom out, but there's no fundamental catalyst that would cause it to crash. You had the pumping trillions of free money into the economy, asset prices rose accordingly.
Armchair economists literally have zero clue.
post 1659606503 04-13-2022, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted By Ochosiete⏩
lol wtf is it with these "housing crash" threads every day
Where theres smoke, theres fire boyo.

This crash is going to make 2008 look like a good time.
post 1659606573 04-13-2022, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted By woofermazing⏩
Wallstreet sees a long term trend.

Home construction rates never rebounded after 2008.

That was fine when millennials were perfectly happy with apartment living in the city.

COVID has massively accelerated their move to the suburbs.

There's just not enough housing in the right areas, and because supply chains will be a mess until at least 2024, there won't be enough in the future.

The drop in sales is purely a supply limitation.
Just curious, but can you elaborate on what you think is a "right area" is?
post 1659606713 04-13-2022, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
Armchair economists literally have zero clue.
I badly want there to be a crash but there is simply no evidence for it occurring. I'm not sure why anyone would be rooting for a crash unless they are going in all cash (like how I'm looking now).


we have about 75% less homes for sale today than in 2017

there's simply nothing available to crash

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
post 1659607103 04-13-2022, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
I badly want there to be a crash but there is simply no evidence for it occurring. I'm not sure why anyone would be rooting for a crash unless they are going in all cash (like how I'm looking now).


we have about 75% less homes for sale today than in 2017

there's simply nothing available to crash

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
you can look at all the stale data you want doesnt mean jack chit when interest rates doubled in 3 months and people can barely afford to put gas in their car
post 1659607253 04-13-2022, 08:32 PM
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Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
you can look at all the stale data you want doesnt mean jack chit when inteest rates doubled in 3 months and people can barely afford to put gas in their car
That's why we are all gonna move to Tampa bud
post 1659607623 04-13-2022, 08:40 PM
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#106
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People waiting for the market crash give me the impression they believe they can buy a 1m house for 100k when it does.
post 1659607633 04-13-2022, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
you can look at all the stale data you want doesnt mean jack chit when inteest rates doubled in 3 months and people can barely afford to put gas in their car
This is conjecture, hearsay, out of the ass opinions

You might have a point on interest rates if housing supply was high, it's currently at a record low, housing equity is at a all time high so people can use that equity to do a large down payment if they do have to move. Also people with low interest rates are likely to stay put, keeping inventory from building up at any reasonable speed unless they are somehow underwater, however people are more secure than ever to handle there existing mortgages with the underwriting changes since 2008, even the dallas fed report pointed this out. Secondly if you can't afford to put gas in your car over a couple dollar raise at best you weren't anywhere close to home ownership in the first place.

Pretty laughably stupid cope statement. The only things high interest rates are currently doing is pricing out the poorest of the poorcels.
post 1659607743 04-13-2022, 08:43 PM
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#108
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Originally Posted By woofermazing⏩
Wallstreet sees a long term trend.

Home construction rates never rebounded after 2008.

That was fine when millennials were perfectly happy with apartment living in the city.

COVID has massively accelerated their move to the suburbs.

There's just not enough housing in the right areas, and because supply chains will be a mess until at least 2024, there won't be enough in the future.

The drop in sales is purely a supply limitation.
Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
I badly want there to be a crash but there is simply no evidence for it occurring. I'm not sure why anyone would be rooting for a crash unless they are going in all cash (like how I'm looking now).


we have about 75% less homes for sale today than in 2017

there's simply nothing available to crash

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
In agreement. I'm not a RE expert nor do I have an economics degree. I've just been paying attention for a couple of years now for my own reasons.

Mentioned in another thread that mobile homes have greatly appreciated. Park models [maximum 399 sq. ft.] are selling for what seem like absurd prices to me. And the people who make manufactured homes are adding factories to try and meet demand.

You can fast forward through the extra sales talk to see a pretty nice park model here that is "on sale today for $120K":



That is about $300 per square foot unless you factor in the half height loft space in some way. Without any land or utilities.

It was just posted yesterday and already has over 14,000 views.
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post 1659607903 04-13-2022, 08:46 PM
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Originally Posted By Deutschlandbrah⏩
People waiting for the market crash give me the impression they believe they can buy a 1m house for 100k when it does.
I am not one of them but i can see it crashing 45%. I mean, my house did from 08 to 11 and with clown world now, who fukin knows.
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post 1659607933 04-13-2022, 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
This is conjecture, hearsay, out of the ass opinions

You might have a point on interest rates if housing supply was high, it's currently at a record low, housing equity is at a all time high so people can use that equity to do a large down payment if they do have to move. Also people with low interest rates are likely to stay put, keeping inventory from building up at any reasonable speed unless they are somehow underwater, however people are more secure than ever to handle there existing mortgages with the underwriting changes since 2008, even the dallas fed report pointed this out. Secondly if you can't afford to put gas in your car over a couple dollar raise at best you weren't anywhere close to home ownership in the first place.

Pretty laughably stupid cope statement. The only things high interest rates are currently doing is pricing out the poorest of the poorcels.
lol always love these guys that stare at old data all day but dont actually know the meaning of it
post 1659608103 04-13-2022, 08:51 PM
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Boyos, you done goof'd up if you aint caught that 60%......
Everything I post is satire.
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post 1659608123 04-13-2022, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
lol always love these guys that stare at old data all day but dont actually know the meaning of it
Lmao dude is priced out of tampa and copemaxxing for a crash with his x3 time rent increase

please provide this "new" data
post 1659608203 04-13-2022, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
lol always love these guys that stare at old data all day but dont actually know the meaning of it
The only thing worse is people who don’t understand how monetary policy or macroeconomics work
post 1659608593 04-13-2022, 09:05 PM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
The only thing worse is people who don’t understand how monetary policy or macroeconomics work
Ok great where exactly is the evidence of a housing crash? Please convince me otherwise

Show me the data and evidence that is going to magically increase inventory and dry up demand

Interest rates? Mortgage rates were 15% and fed rates were 13% in the beginning of the 1980's no crash there? houses still appreciated

This coping here it really is amazing, for people who talk about looking at old data maybe you should be perhaps looking at some data instead of just making opinions based on thin air.
post 1659609003 04-13-2022, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
Ok great where exactly is the evidence of a housing crash? Please convince me otherwise

Show me the data and evidence that is going to magically increase inventory and dry up demand

Interest rates? Mortgage rates were 15% and fed rates were 13% in the beginning of the 1980's no crash there? houses still appreciated

This coping here it really is amazing, for people who talk about looking at old data maybe you should be perhaps looking at some data instead of just making opinions based on thin air.
Settle down champ I’m the one calling out the rentcels for their wishful thinking

Ironically for much the reason you posted - the “bubble” if it exists needs an external stimulus to pop.

That could be a sudden and large increase in the unemployment rate; or sudden and large interest rate increases outside the central bank cash movements (e.g. interbank lending crisis from 2008)
post 1659609153 04-13-2022, 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
lol always love these guys that stare at old data all day but dont actually know the meaning of it
I love rentcel cope

When exactly will the market crash?
post 1659609173 04-13-2022, 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
Ok great where exactly is the evidence of a housing crash? Please convince me otherwise

Show me the data and evidence that is going to magically increase inventory and dry up demand

Interest rates? Mortgage rates were 15% and fed rates were 13% in the beginning of the 1980's no crash there? houses still appreciated

This coping here it really is amazing, for people who talk about looking at old data maybe you should be perhaps looking at some data instead of just making opinions based on thin air.
On top of this is the fact that interest rates are on the rise. From a common sense point of view, people thinking about buying are looking to buy now before rates go up any further. Furthermore, the fact that people are waiting, expecting, and wanting a crash kinda shows there's pent up demand. The '08 crash was a part of a cascade of events. What would tip the housing market into a crash this time after more stringent lending for years will likely keep homeowners from flooding the market with foreclosures?
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post 1659609213 04-13-2022, 09:21 PM
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Should I put more money into gold and silver in the mean time?
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post 1659609463 04-13-2022, 09:26 PM
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Ben Bernanke telling us that fundamentals were strong and to not worry about housing cost and home construction, interest rates, and mortgages.

The year prior and during to what will become an economic USA meltdown:

post 1659610083 04-13-2022, 09:39 PM
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Originally Posted By 10w30⏩
Ben Bernanke telling us that fundamentals were strong and to not worry about housing cost, interest rates, mortgages, or cars & trucks.

The year prior and during to what will become an economic USA meltdown:

Yeah but back then they'd give loans to anyone, they actually verify income now.

Even if we had a massive recession I think we be looking at flat lining appreciation. I think a recession it's pretty likely but that could be 1-2 years away, then you have foreclosures and inventory trickling in after some time not overnight. If you are saying they maybe could be a flat / low appreciating market it 2-3 years that's a lot more reasonable. Anyways... mortgage rates will likely go back down in a full blown recession. Feds game will be to crash the economy to stop inflation, than stop the recession they created by lowering rates, in turn lowering mortgage rates.
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