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Billionaire: "Now is the best time to buy a house"
11-19-2023, 02:06 PM
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#91
Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
I can see that from your point of view, but from the economic perspective, I don’t see the logic. It dismisses that coming crash, when prices will be low, and lower interest rates. It also discounts the very high mortgage payments compared to renting until the market corrects.Sure
Rates will go down next year
Many buyers that are sitting on the sidelines will bite the bullet and buy
Housing supply is still low
Prices will be steady until rates start to come down, and will then creep back up
As I’ve already said, buyers now can take advantage of sellers giving concessions as well as being more willing to do repairs
Next year, when I believe the market will pick up, sellers will be less willing to do this because there will be more available buyers
I’m a brokerand I see hundreds of transactions a year
I’m very surprised how prices have still held even with rates as high as they are, but they have. It highlights how bad the supply issue really is
Right now I’ve been able to find and get others incredible deals that will not be available as often next year
Hope that helps!
Rates will go down next year
Many buyers that are sitting on the sidelines will bite the bullet and buy
Housing supply is still low
Prices will be steady until rates start to come down, and will then creep back up
As I’ve already said, buyers now can take advantage of sellers giving concessions as well as being more willing to do repairs
Next year, when I believe the market will pick up, sellers will be less willing to do this because there will be more available buyers
I’m a brokerand I see hundreds of transactions a year
I’m very surprised how prices have still held even with rates as high as they are, but they have. It highlights how bad the supply issue really is
Right now I’ve been able to find and get others incredible deals that will not be available as often next year
Hope that helps!
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Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
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11-19-2023, 02:10 PM
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#92
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
There's no need for a crash in a market that doesn't care about volume; there's no driver for supply. It should have arisen from investor sell-offs after bonds rose, but they're holding. Without that element, only foreclosures can really do anything.I can see that from your point of view, but from the economic perspective, I don’t see the logic. It dismisses that coming crash, when prices will be low, and lower interest rates. It also discounts the very high mortgage payments compared to renting until the market corrects.
Investors are afraid of inflation, and are holding assets. The inflation has to go down, but can't while major sections of markets are held captive. It is a stand still.
Spending rates have to decrease faster than price increases, which is very hard to do. It basically requires that people lose their jobs. Otherwise corporations in all markets are going to keep raising prices to show growth. It's cannibalistic, we all see it, it's disgusting.
Boycott foodservice industry crew
11-19-2023, 02:13 PM
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#93
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
We can make a wager if you wantI can see that from your point of view, but from the economic perspective, I don’t see the logic. It dismisses that coming crash, when prices will be low, and lower interest rates. It also discounts the very high mortgage payments compared to renting until the market corrects.
We can compare the housing market now to this time next year
Whatever terms you think are fair
Loser takes a ban
Let me know!
That’s an open ban bet to anyone who thinks the market is going down next year :]
11-19-2023, 02:19 PM
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#94
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
But in October this year, you said the crash will occur in six monthsI generally agree with her. But rates will be high for another couple years and they need to flush all of the excess covid cash from the system first.
So like 12 months from now will be the best time to buy.
So like 12 months from now will be the best time to buy.
So now it’s 12 months?
Lmao always the same story with you guys
“Just 2 more weeks”
11-19-2023, 02:20 PM
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#95
11-19-2023, 02:23 PM
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#96
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
Of course there are good deals now. The deals next year will be even better. But if you like a property and it fits your investment criteria, go for it.Sure
Rates will go down next year
Many buyers that are sitting on the sidelines will bite the bullet and buy
Housing supply is still low
Prices will be steady until rates start to come down, and will then creep back up
As I’ve already said, buyers now can take advantage of sellers giving concessions as well as being more willing to do repairs
Next year, when I believe the market will pick up, sellers will be less willing to do this because there will be more available buyers
I’m a broker and I see hundreds of transactions a year
I’m very surprised how prices have still held even with rates as high as they are, but they have. It highlights how bad the supply issue really is
Right now I’ve been able to find and get others incredible deals that will not be available as often next year
Hope that helps!
Rates will go down next year
Many buyers that are sitting on the sidelines will bite the bullet and buy
Housing supply is still low
Prices will be steady until rates start to come down, and will then creep back up
As I’ve already said, buyers now can take advantage of sellers giving concessions as well as being more willing to do repairs
Next year, when I believe the market will pick up, sellers will be less willing to do this because there will be more available buyers
I’m a broker and I see hundreds of transactions a year
I’m very surprised how prices have still held even with rates as high as they are, but they have. It highlights how bad the supply issue really is
Right now I’ve been able to find and get others incredible deals that will not be available as often next year
Hope that helps!
Remember the rate of inflation is still increasing. There’s a very long way to go before rates drop.
11-19-2023, 02:25 PM
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#97
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Next year everyone will be out trying to buy, lowering the amount of leverage any one person has.Of course there are good deals now. The deals next year will be even better. But if you like a property and it fits your investment criteria, go for it.
Remember the rate of inflation is still increasing. There’s a very long way to go before rates drop.
Remember the rate of inflation is still increasing. There’s a very long way to go before rates drop.
When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.
11-19-2023, 02:31 PM
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#98
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
He’s a multifamily agent larping like he knows the single family marketBut in October this year, you said the crash will occur in six months
So now it’s 12 months?
Lmao always the same story with you guys
“Just 2 more weeks”
So now it’s 12 months?
Lmao always the same story with you guys
“Just 2 more weeks”
I guarantee he did less than 100 transactions this year
11-19-2023, 02:32 PM
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#99
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Originally Posted By Godfrd824⏩
CorrectNext year everyone will be out trying to buy, lowering the amount of leverage any one person has.
Less homes to bid on
More competition
Less incentive for sellers to give concessions and do repairs or give price reductions in lieu of repairs
Less good deals
11-19-2023, 02:36 PM
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#100
Here is what I know-
The boom-bust cycle, or business cycle, works like this; Government interference —> Boom —> Malinvestments (Investing based on artificial market values) —> Bust —> Liquidation.
Housing prices are higher than people can afford right now. Higher Interest rates make the payments even higher. The rate of inflation is still higher than the interest rates, which means, the banks are losing money. The collateral is in the negative as well = Banking/financial crisis and housing crash.
Massive layoffs and spending cuts could also result in the sale of homes.
The housing prices are not the result of natural market phenomena. They are the direct result of government interference, which is why we are getting the unnatural low supply with high price. The only thing that is going to fix this is a correction/recession. If you buy at this time, as stated above, it would be a Malinvestment before the correction. See boom-bust cycle I posted.
The boom-bust cycle, or business cycle, works like this; Government interference —> Boom —> Malinvestments (Investing based on artificial market values) —> Bust —> Liquidation.
Housing prices are higher than people can afford right now. Higher Interest rates make the payments even higher. The rate of inflation is still higher than the interest rates, which means, the banks are losing money. The collateral is in the negative as well = Banking/financial crisis and housing crash.
Massive layoffs and spending cuts could also result in the sale of homes.
The housing prices are not the result of natural market phenomena. They are the direct result of government interference, which is why we are getting the unnatural low supply with high price. The only thing that is going to fix this is a correction/recession. If you buy at this time, as stated above, it would be a Malinvestment before the correction. See boom-bust cycle I posted.
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
"To Call something fair or unfair is a subjective value judgment and not liable to any verification" Ludwig Von Mises
11-19-2023, 02:40 PM
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#101
Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
More competition for the SELLER, not the buyers. This is a contradiction to what you said earlier that now is the time to buy, unless there was a communication problem from the start of what I said.Correct
Less homes to bid on
More competition
Less homes to bid on
More competition
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
"To Call something fair or unfair is a subjective value judgment and not liable to any verification" Ludwig Von Mises
11-19-2023, 02:40 PM
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#102
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She has a vested interest in saying now is a good time. Millions of sellers are sitting on the sidelines right now. If interest rates do drop below 6% in another year or so the number of houses available for sale will triple in a few months time. You can bet that "now is the best time to buy" is her take 99.9% of the time. Fear hasn't even hit the single family home market yet. There's still a way to go before prices go down noticeably though. Probably 9-10 months before they start hitting the skids.
Yeah Buddyyy! Light weight! Light weight baby!!!!
11-19-2023, 02:41 PM
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#103
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
Cry to the government to bail you outwhat if the house goes down 30% along with your other 10 properties you levered up on at market highs?
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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.
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11-19-2023, 02:42 PM
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#104
Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
Agreed. THis is what I was trying to tell Deep. He is a broker, of course he wants to see business. This is the self interest of the business, not economics.She has a vested interest in saying now is a good time. Millions of sellers are sitting on the sidelines right now. If interest rates do drop below 6% in another year or so the number of houses available for sale will triple in a few months time. You can bet that "now is the best time to buy" is her take 99.9% of the time. Fear hasn't even hit the single family home market yet.
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
"To Call something fair or unfair is a subjective value judgment and not liable to any verification" Ludwig Von Mises
11-19-2023, 04:25 PM
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#105
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
Exactly. I’m also a Broker, but I also have a very deep understanding of economics. Honestly, I’m not dependent on my brokerage to live, so really there’s no vested interest in some specific outcome for the markets.Agreed. THis is what I was trying to tell Deep. He is a broker, of course he wants to see business. This is the self interest of the business, not economics.
The good thing about Brokerage though…
You make money when the market increases and decreases. I’m actually expecting 2024 to be my best year ever, and it’s because there’s a lot of weakness in the market combined with a lot of pent up supply.
Commercial Real Estate has potential to enter a nightmare scenario in the next 18 months, and this can easily take down residential values as well.
As an investor/developer with access to about $25M cash who has acted very conservatively during the last few years, I’m very excited about the markets correcting because this is when someone like me builds wealth.
11-19-2023, 04:49 PM
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#106
Originally Posted By Godfrd824⏩
that doesn't have anything to do with 2007/8 being a bad time to buy real estate.My father bought a house in 2003 for $168k, that house sold in 2021 for $489k. We lived in that house, he rented part of that house, he retired off that one house. Had he put up the $6k he had to buy that house with in index funds, he would still be working his $12/h job.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
11-19-2023, 04:53 PM
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#107
Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
you're talking way over these guys head, they dont get economics.Here is what I know-
The boom-bust cycle, or business cycle, works like this; Government interference —> Boom —> Malinvestments (Investing based on artificial market values) —> Bust —> Liquidation.
Housing prices are higher than people can afford right now. Higher Interest rates make the payments even higher. The rate of inflation is still higher than the interest rates, which means, the banks are losing money. The collateral is in the negative as well = Banking/financial crisis and housing crash.
Massive layoffs and spending cuts could also result in the sale of homes.
The housing prices are not the result of natural market phenomena. They are the direct result of government interference, which is why we are getting the unnatural low supply with high price. The only thing that is going to fix this is a correction/recession. If you buy at this time, as stated above, it would be a Malinvestment before the correction. See boom-bust cycle I posted.
The boom-bust cycle, or business cycle, works like this; Government interference —> Boom —> Malinvestments (Investing based on artificial market values) —> Bust —> Liquidation.
Housing prices are higher than people can afford right now. Higher Interest rates make the payments even higher. The rate of inflation is still higher than the interest rates, which means, the banks are losing money. The collateral is in the negative as well = Banking/financial crisis and housing crash.
Massive layoffs and spending cuts could also result in the sale of homes.
The housing prices are not the result of natural market phenomena. They are the direct result of government interference, which is why we are getting the unnatural low supply with high price. The only thing that is going to fix this is a correction/recession. If you buy at this time, as stated above, it would be a Malinvestment before the correction. See boom-bust cycle I posted.
I think this is an important point - "they are the direct result of government interference" - that's part of why i think it's almost impossible to predict what/when happens. A downturn in real (not nominal) terms is inevitable, but being able to predict when is impossible. I can't predict what the government will do when, and that's a key piece.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
11-19-2023, 04:58 PM
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#108
Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
This is a good point. people are saying there's tons of buyers on the sidelines waiting for any drop in rates or price - there's also potential sellers who are staying in a home they may not love because it's very cheap to do so vs giving up their 3% rate mortgage and lower cost basis. If someone bought 5 years ago and went out and bought the same thing now, they monthly payment could double. If that dynamic changes they become sellers (in addition to buyers for a bigger home). demand will go up and so will supply if prices & rates drop. Demand will go up more i think, but it's not like supply stays fixed.She has a vested interest in saying now is a good time. Millions of sellers are sitting on the sidelines right now. If interest rates do drop below 6% in another year or so the number of houses available for sale will triple in a few months time. You can bet that "now is the best time to buy" is her take 99.9% of the time. Fear hasn't even hit the single family home market yet. There's still a way to go before prices go down noticeably though. Probably 9-10 months before they start hitting the skids.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
11-19-2023, 05:03 PM
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#109
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Lmao no you don’tExactly. I’m also a Broker,but I also have a very deep understanding of economics. Honestly, I’m not dependent on my brokerage to live, so really there’s no vested interest in some specific outcome for the markets.
The good thing about Brokerage though…
You make money when the market increases and decreases. I’m actually expecting 2024 to be my best year ever, and it’s because there’s a lot of weakness in the market combined with a lot of pent up supply.
Commercial Real Estate has potential to enter a nightmare scenario in the next 18 months, and this can easily take down residential values as well.
As an investor/developer with access to about $25M cash who has acted very conservatively during the last few years, I’m very excited about the markets correcting because this is when someone like me builds wealth.
The good thing about Brokerage though…
You make money when the market increases and decreases. I’m actually expecting 2024 to be my best year ever, and it’s because there’s a lot of weakness in the market combined with a lot of pent up supply.
Commercial Real Estate has potential to enter a nightmare scenario in the next 18 months, and this can easily take down residential values as well.
As an investor/developer with access to about $25M cash who has acted very conservatively during the last few years, I’m very excited about the markets correcting because this is when someone like me builds wealth.
11-19-2023, 05:08 PM
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#110
11-19-2023, 05:15 PM
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#111
Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
I agree. The market is much easier to predict when the government isn’t interfering. It’s def more stable. Predictions wouldn’t be 100%, but if we look at investments made in the absence of government intervention, investors tend to make better and more reasonable decisions.you're talking way over these guys head, they dont get economics.
I think this is an important point - "they are the direct result of government interference" - that's part of why i think it's almost impossible to predict what/when happens. A downturn in real (not nominal) terms is inevitable, but being able to predict when is impossible. I can't predict what the government will do when, and that's a key piece.
I think this is an important point - "they are the direct result of government interference" - that's part of why i think it's almost impossible to predict what/when happens. A downturn in real (not nominal) terms is inevitable, but being able to predict when is impossible. I can't predict what the government will do when, and that's a key piece.
For anyone that doesn’t understand, this might help.
Peter Schiff gave a good example for a better understanding of the boom-bust cycle; Let’s say you are a restaurant owner. The circus comes to town for a month, and the restaurant gets packed for a month straight as a result. You believe that business has really picked up, so you decide to expand the business. You build an addition, hire more employees, pay them more money etc. Then suddenly, the circus leaves town, and the restaurant is suddenly in debt. Now you have to lay off workers, cut costs, or you might even go out of business.
The circus represents the government. The malinvestments were those made when you were fooled by the government’s injection of artificial market fluctuations. Factors that can do this are inflation, interest rates, subsidies…they influence people to make bad decisions.
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
"To Call something fair or unfair is a subjective value judgment and not liable to any verification" Ludwig Von Mises
11-19-2023, 05:16 PM
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#112
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A 70yo guy I golf with bought a townhome in San Diego for his Asian hooker girlfriend. The deal is that she fukks him until he croaks.
Lately, she's been out of state for months (fukking other guys?), and homeboy's place is sitting empty. He knows I'm a rentcel, so when we played yesterday, he made me an offer on it.
$3500/mo to rent it out. He said his current payment on it is $5100/mo, "but I'll be able to refinance it like next year".
Mortgagecels are a MILE underwater right now.
Lately, she's been out of state for months (fukking other guys?), and homeboy's place is sitting empty. He knows I'm a rentcel, so when we played yesterday, he made me an offer on it.
$3500/mo to rent it out. He said his current payment on it is $5100/mo, "but I'll be able to refinance it like next year".
Mortgagecels are a MILE underwater right now.
FA Crew
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11-19-2023, 05:20 PM
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#113
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
It will be more competition for the buyerMore competition for the SELLER, not the buyers. This is a contradiction to what you said earlier that now is the time to buy, unless there was a communication problem from the start of what I said.
The supply of houses is still low
There will be more buyers in the market with more buying power when rates are lower
Hence, more competition for the buyer
I’m not contradicting anything I previously said, you just have no idea how the housing market works ;]
Again, that ban bet I offered earlier is wide open
You won’t take it
11-19-2023, 05:25 PM
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#114
Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
only if bought lately. if bought 5+ years ago they're in great shape.A 70yo guy I golf with bought a townhome in San Diego for his Asian hooker girlfriend. The deal is that she fukks him until he croaks.
Lately, she's been out of state for months (fukking other guys?), and homeboy's place is sitting empty. He knows I'm a rentcel, so when he played yesterday, he made me an offer on it.
$3500/mo to rent it out. He said his current payment on it is $5100/mo, "but I'll be able to refinance it like next year".
Mortgagecels are a MILE underwater right now.
Lately, she's been out of state for months (fukking other guys?), and homeboy's place is sitting empty. He knows I'm a rentcel, so when he played yesterday, he made me an offer on it.
$3500/mo to rent it out. He said his current payment on it is $5100/mo, "but I'll be able to refinance it like next year".
Mortgagecels are a MILE underwater right now.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
11-19-2023, 05:45 PM
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#115
- OliverHeldens
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Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
Lol, paying $60k per year for some pussy that isn’t around always is absurd. Might as well just get a sugar baby.A 70yo guy I golf with bought a townhome in San Diego for his Asian hooker girlfriend. The deal is that she fukks him until he croaks.
Lately, she's been out of state for months (fukking other guys?), and homeboy's place is sitting empty. He knows I'm a rentcel, so when he played yesterday, he made me an offer on it.
$3500/mo to rent it out. He said his current payment on it is $5100/mo, "but I'll be able to refinance it like next year".
Mortgagecels are a MILE underwater right now.
Lately, she's been out of state for months (fukking other guys?), and homeboy's place is sitting empty. He knows I'm a rentcel, so when he played yesterday, he made me an offer on it.
$3500/mo to rent it out. He said his current payment on it is $5100/mo, "but I'll be able to refinance it like next year".
Mortgagecels are a MILE underwater right now.
11-19-2023, 05:46 PM
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#116
- guest89
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
You can't live in an index fund. Furthermore, nobody knows what the market's will do in the short term. You can just as easily take massive losses in the market and be down in your index fund or whatever else you 'invested' into. Even if you are 'up' in profits you'll have to pay taxes on your gains when you pull it out if you do intend on buying a house...what about opportunity cost? You could have put that money to work somewhere else and then bought the same house 10 years later for the same price.
About 11 years ago when I first started looking into buying a house miscers kept talking about how bad the markets were. It was going to crash. Terrible time to buy a house. Etc. I'm knocking on 9 years in my house. Refinanced when rates got super low. Etc. Smartest thing I ever did was buy a house when I did.
11-19-2023, 05:51 PM
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#117
Originally Posted By guest89⏩
this has already been addressed, read the threadYou can't live in an index fund. Furthermore, nobody knows what the market's will do in the short term. You can just as easily take massive losses in the market and be down in your index fund or whatever else you 'invested' into. Even if you are 'up' in profits you'll have to pay taxes on your gains when you pull it out if you do intend on buying a house...
About 11 years ago when I first started looking into buying a house miscers kept talking about how bad the markets were. It was going to crash. Terrible time to buy a house. Etc. I'm knocking on 9 years in my house. Refinanced when rates got super low. Etc. Smartest thing I ever did was buy a house when I did.
About 11 years ago when I first started looking into buying a house miscers kept talking about how bad the markets were. It was going to crash. Terrible time to buy a house. Etc. I'm knocking on 9 years in my house. Refinanced when rates got super low. Etc. Smartest thing I ever did was buy a house when I did.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
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