Thread: Oldcels, is 2020 as bad as 2008?
09-26-2020, 03:21 PM
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#121
- OliverHeldens
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
In the previous recession, issues in the mortgage market had started in a serious way in 2005. By the time stock markets crashed in 2008 and Lehman went BK, there were plenty of areas of the US where the average homeowner owed 200% of what the house could be sold for. Given that labor markets didn't really start improving until 2011 or so, it exasperated the problem.Maybe.
OCC Reports Decline In Mortgage Performance
https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/n...-2020-126.html
Highest Delinquency Rate In 21 Years
The government did a couple of things to buy time-
https://www.housingwire.com/articles...ears-in-april/
Some speculation by CoreLogic on where home prices are going:
https://www.housingwire.com/articles...perfect-storm/
And this article outlines how the recovery from 2008 was staged.Maybe most relevant to the present situation is the revelation that a lot of mortgages are now serviced by non-bank servicers that do not report to the OCC and may not be subject to the same standards as banks. We (the public) don't actually know what is going on with these mortgages at this time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...old-2020-04-02
OCC Reports Decline In Mortgage Performance
https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/n...-2020-126.html
Highest Delinquency Rate In 21 Years
The government did a couple of things to buy time-
https://www.housingwire.com/articles...ears-in-april/
Some speculation by CoreLogic on where home prices are going:
https://www.housingwire.com/articles...perfect-storm/
And this article outlines how the recovery from 2008 was staged.Maybe most relevant to the present situation is the revelation that a lot of mortgages are now serviced by non-bank servicers that do not report to the OCC and may not be subject to the same standards as banks. We (the public) don't actually know what is going on with these mortgages at this time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...old-2020-04-02
COVID has only been impacting the housing market for 6 months now, and unemployment is already back down to 8.4% which the US didn't reach until the beginning of 2012 in the last recession. There will absolutely be an uptick in foreclosures and some areas will absolutely see a drop in values. But there's absolutely no data whatsoever right now that would indicate we are in for anything like 2008.
09-26-2020, 03:23 PM
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#122
- MediocreGains
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- MediocreGains
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Depends. On a personal level, 2008 was much worse because I was young and broke. I remember it was a treat just to buy a fukin cheeseburger from McDonald's. Had to sell some stocks at a loss just to pay the bills (and the market remained down for years).
Many people also lost their homes. Foreclosures were everywhere.
2020 has the pandemic and lockdowns. If you're a small business owner, you're fuked. But big corporations and the market are doing relatively fine (some even better) due to all the money printing.
Many people also lost their homes. Foreclosures were everywhere.
2020 has the pandemic and lockdowns. If you're a small business owner, you're fuked. But big corporations and the market are doing relatively fine (some even better) due to all the money printing.
09-26-2020, 03:34 PM
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#123
- Peacening
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Many businesses didn't really suffer the effects of the crash until 2009-10 so it's tough to say right now. To some degree permanent business closures have been expedited by the lockdowns but we still have a ways to go before the full extent of damage is known. Talking small business here.... Obviously for big businesses 2020 isn't chit because the stimulus was much bigger and came basically in advance of the downturn whereas it took them a year or so to give out the stimulus in 08/9
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09-26-2020, 03:40 PM
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#124
- GainzMcgee
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Originally Posted By Inger2⏩
Basically alot of these reponses are people just adding their personal ancedotes or how they feel not reality.Can someone educate how bad it was In 2008 compared to today? Was only 12 in 2008
Fact is 2008 never really ended. The fed never rose interest rates and at the slight chance of them going up the market takes a huge chit. Although many here are claiming the "white collar" jobs arent being hit thats just because this is a legit recession and usually when we go through a long recession its the lower level jobs that get hit first then the white collar jobs. Dont worry this chit is just beginning
09-26-2020, 03:45 PM
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#125
this is going to be the biggest economical reset in history probably worse than the great depression I see that most people in this thread are completely clueless.
most manufacturing jobs are gone already once they get rid of all the stores it's goodbye and the economy wasn't doing that good at all even before the "pandemic"
they already started printing trillions in the last quarter of 2019 this is all controlled demolition nothing is going to go back to normal ever again.
most manufacturing jobs are gone already once they get rid of all the stores it's goodbye and the economy wasn't doing that good at all even before the "pandemic"
they already started printing trillions in the last quarter of 2019 this is all controlled demolition nothing is going to go back to normal ever again.
09-26-2020, 03:46 PM
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#126
Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
^^^^Basically alot of these reponses are people just adding their personal ancedotes or how they feel not reality.
Fact is 2008 never really ended. The fed never rose interest rates and at the slight chance of them going up the market takes a huge chit. Although many here are claiming the "white collar" jobs arent being hit thats just because this is a legit recession and usually when we go through a long recession its the lower level jobs that get hit first then the white collar jobs. Dont worry this chit is just beginning
Fact is 2008 never really ended. The fed never rose interest rates and at the slight chance of them going up the market takes a huge chit. Although many here are claiming the "white collar" jobs arent being hit thats just because this is a legit recession and usually when we go through a long recession its the lower level jobs that get hit first then the white collar jobs. Dont worry this chit is just beginning
09-26-2020, 03:57 PM
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#127
09-26-2020, 03:59 PM
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#128
- gixxer0.6g
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- gixxer0.6g
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I feel better about keeping my job now than in 2008. Then we ushered in a liberal president that proceeded to kill the middle class.
So ya, the economy was worse in 2008 but the political divide is worse in 2020 and liberals are completely unhinged
So ya, the economy was worse in 2008 but the political divide is worse in 2020 and liberals are completely unhinged
Toxic Masculinity
09-26-2020, 04:05 PM
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#129
- OliverHeldens
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Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
Lol, using this logic we could extend the beginning of this all the way back to the early 1970s when the US eliminated the gold standard.Basically alot of these reponses are people just adding their personal ancedotes or how they feel not reality.
Fact is 2008 never really ended. The fed never rose interest rates and at the slight chance of them going up the market takes a huge chit. Although many here are claiming the "white collar" jobs arent being hit thats just because this is a legit recession and usually when we go through a long recession its the lower level jobs that get hit first then the white collar jobs. Dont worry this chit is just beginning
Fact is 2008 never really ended. The fed never rose interest rates and at the slight chance of them going up the market takes a huge chit. Although many here are claiming the "white collar" jobs arent being hit thats just because this is a legit recession and usually when we go through a long recession its the lower level jobs that get hit first then the white collar jobs. Dont worry this chit is just beginning
Now that we have a fiat currency system, as time goes on money is going to matter less and less. People's needs will generally be taken care of and quality of life will keep improving for everybody as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency. This is why it's so important for the US to decouple from China, because if Chins gains enough power to circumvent the US in international affairs, the dollar stops being the world's reserve currency in favor of the Yuan all of a sudden we become Eastern Europe having to suck the rest of the world's dick.
09-26-2020, 04:15 PM
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#130
- GainzMcgee
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- GainzMcgee
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Well gee I wonder if there is a correlation between the destruction of the middle class and the elimination of the gold standard. No you say...Lol, using this logic we could extend the beginning of this all the way back to the early 1970s when the US eliminated the gold standard.
Now that we have a fiat currency system, as time goes on money is going to matter less and less. People's needs will generally be taken care of and quality of life will keep improving for everybody as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency. This is why it's so important for the US to decouple from China, because if Chins gains enough power to circumvent the US in international affairs, the dollar stops being the world's reserve currency in favor of the Yuan all of a sudden we become Eastern Europe having to suck the rest of the world's dick.
Now that we have a fiat currency system, as time goes on money is going to matter less and less. People's needs will generally be taken care of and quality of life will keep improving for everybody as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency. This is why it's so important for the US to decouple from China, because if Chins gains enough power to circumvent the US in international affairs, the dollar stops being the world's reserve currency in favor of the Yuan all of a sudden we become Eastern Europe having to suck the rest of the world's dick.

09-26-2020, 04:19 PM
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#131
- FrankCostanza
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you can tell its worse by all of the sales and the fact that our gdp will take at least a 5-6t hit. its so bad that now social security and disability will run out before most of us are 40.
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