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Forum ยป Vax-cels: the consequences will never be the same...
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Thread: Vax-cels: the consequences will never be the same...

post 1653169843 12-25-2021, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted By OneLegSquats⏩
lol this killed me
post 1653170253 12-25-2021, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Sometimes it's fun to rustle people who think they are smarter than they really are.
post 1653170443 12-25-2021, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
So do you believe these numbers?



Or can we just throw them away because they are made up?
You think that model is flawed?
post 1653171313 12-25-2021, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
So do you believe these numbers?



Or can we just throw them away because they are made up?
Is your position that those estimates should be disregarded as inaccurate and false?
post 1653171793 12-25-2021, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Why can't you answer the question?

Simple yes or no, do you believe these numbers?



To help you out, here are the two possible answers:

1. Yes.
2. No.

The language games are weird.

"Believe" is an odd word to use in this context.

What does it matter what I "believe"?

That site shares estimates from their model. I don't know for certain, but I imagine it's an SEIR model, which is a common approach in epidemiology.

If you have a critique or criticism of the employed approach, why not share what you think they're doing wrong?
post 1653172893 12-25-2021, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Part 3 of the recap.

Edit : All this effort to facilitate discussion, and all I'm getting is a complete refusal to participate.

I would say I am disappointed, but it's really expected.
I think those are the estimates from their model.

But Fisman did resign over the Table's reluctance to share concerning projections for the fall. So like most of these discussions, there is likely political influence in how the data are presented.

The format seems to be problematic since several people ITT thought the vaccination status estimates should sum to the cases per 1M estimate.
post 1653173203 12-25-2021, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
I don't see "yes" and I don't see "no".

Do you think these numbers are credible?



Simple yes or no.
Your question doesn't make sense, sorry.
post 1653173813 12-25-2021, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Keep playing semantics.

Would you use these numbers in an argument?



Yes or no.
You used them in this argument as being invalid, but won't say why.

I'm not paying close enough attention to identify any potential traps.

Those are the estimates from that group. Consider them or don't.

I guess that means I've taken an L and got rekt.

Merry Christmas
post 1653174423 12-25-2021, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Math.



wait, how can the total cases for 25th December be lower than the breakdown of the same between unvax and vax


strong everything
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post 1653174883 12-25-2021, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Third person in this thread to see it.

But the pseudo intellectual vaxcuck does not - because the rest of the data suits the narrative.
also, doesnt account for an in-betweeners that have not had their second dose

normally, I would say the in-between period of a couple of weeks makes it useless, but the data in question's granularity is DAILY (which is open to many flaws even if it was a legitimate breakdown)
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post 1653174913 12-25-2021, 04:59 PM
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this JLC cat is worse than Farley1234 way back when this whole thing started.

just another autistic wanna-b smart guy
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post 1653174953 12-25-2021, 05:00 PM
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From the OP in case anyone's missed it.



Vaccine effectiveness is negative after 3 months.

This is a preprint, but it's not the only study showing this. The implications here are disturbing. If vaxxed are worried about mutations, this is especially disturbing. Imagine being forced-not by mandates, but by your own weakened immunity to take boosters for life every 3 months. This is the sort of "surprise" I and many other non-vaxxed wanted to avoid and yet were demonized as anti science.
Virtue is its own reward.
post 1653175063 12-25-2021, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted By IronILLinois⏩
this JLC cat is worse than Farley1234 way back when this whole thing started.

just another autistic wanna-b smart guy
Had to neg him for this thread. One of the few negs I've ever handed out (reps don't mean shiit) because of the blatant dishonesty he uses in this thread.
What are you on about mate?
post 1653175213 12-25-2021, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
wait, how can the total cases for 25th December be lower than the breakdown of the same between unvax and vax


strong everything
This got burried
Originally Posted By J.L.C.⏩
My take is that the total is per 1 million people (hence stating that on that line) and there are more than 1 million vaccinated people and more than 1 million unvaccinated people.
The estimates per group should not be expected to sum to the per 1M number.
post 1653175313 12-25-2021, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted By OrdoAbchao⏩
Had to neg him for this thread. One of the few negs I've ever handed out (reps don't mean shiit) because of the blatant dishonesty he uses in this thread.
I get that people need a target and I'm fine playing that role.

I don't see dishonesty in presenting information that counters the narrative, but such judgements are part of life on the Misc.
post 1653175423 12-25-2021, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted By Johnez⏩
From the OP in case anyone's missed it.


This is a preprint, but it's not the only study showing this. The implications here are disturbing. If vaxxed are worried about mutations, this is especially disturbing. Imagine being forced-not by mandates, but by your own weakened immunity to take boosters for life every 3 months. This is the sort of "surprise" I and many other non-vaxxed wanted to avoid and yet were demonized as anti science.
How or why would any of these vaccines weaken immunity?
post 1653175923 12-25-2021, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
So you think it should be out by millions of people?



You didn't own up to mistakenly posting fake numbers - that's on you.

I gave you a lot of opportunities - I believe it was a dozen or so.
lol at trying to pin those estimates on me.

"The estimated number of cases per day, rate and percentage are predicted 7-day midpoint averages based on the latest observed 7-day midpoint average of the number of cases per day and the latest observed 3-day average of R(t). The estimated number of deaths per day is based on the latest 7-day midpoint average."

Links provided, not my model, just what we have available.
post 1653176133 12-25-2021, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted By J.L.C.⏩
This got burried



The estimates per group should not be expected to sum to the per 1M number.
huh?


per X people always adjusts by dividing by X


not sure how it is not supposed to add up



when you register a number of cases, you can clearly break them down by groups
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post 1653176143 12-25-2021, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted By J.L.C.⏩
How or why would any of these vaccines weaken immunity?
More likely that Denmark's vaccine passports prevented the unvaccinated from getting exposed to as much omicron. End of message.
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post 1653176343 12-25-2021, 05:27 PM
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Originally Posted By J.L.C.⏩
How or why would any of these vaccines weaken immunity?
I'm assuming negative effectiveness here means worse than natural immunity. Perhaps my interpretation is way off, as of course I'm no expert in interpreting studies. To have to take a booster every 3 months (by this study it looks like it should be every 2 months) to maintain any sort of immunity doesn't suggest to me that we need a massive rollout of boosters, but examining if it's in fact even worthwhile.

Beside all that, the WHO points out the countries most in danger of forming variants are getting hardly any vaccines and here we are already debating on whether to get a fourth shot.

Here I am conflating multiple issues, apologies for that.
Virtue is its own reward.
post 1653176373 12-25-2021, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
huh?


per X people always adjusts by dividing by X


not sure how it is not supposed to add up



when you register a number of cases, you can clearly break them down by groups
These data are projections from their model.
post 1653176593 12-25-2021, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted By Johnez⏩
I'm assuming negative effectiveness here means worse than natural immunity. Perhaps my interpretation is way off, as of course I'm no expert in interpreting studies. To have to take a booster every 3 months (by this study it looks like it should be every 2 months) to maintain any sort of immunity doesn't suggest to me that we need a massive rollout of boosters, but examining if it's in fact even worthwhile.

Beside all that, the WHO points out the countries most in danger of forming variants are getting hardly any vaccines and here we are already debating on whether to get a fourth shot.

Here I am conflating multiple issues, apologies for that.
My question is that exactly... I cant see 1 month difference causing you to be 50-75% more likely to contract the virus than non vaxxed at all?

IMO would it not make sense to hold off on boosters until major mutations happen, ie everyone goes for their booster, say, last week when we realized omnicron is super contagious? Instead of randomly getting boosters every couple months? Seems more reaslitic, depending on practicality.

Im neither anti vaxx or pro mandate
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post 1653176613 12-25-2021, 05:33 PM
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These data are from a report published on December 16, 2021:














https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-c...2021.12.16.pdf
post 1653176893 12-25-2021, 05:39 PM
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ok, based on some research as a 24yo healthy male who barely goes out and doesnt want to travel I am sticking to pureblood status until further notice
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post 1653176903 12-25-2021, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
It's from the same source I just debunked as fake, don't even bother.
Well you said you don't like it, but never said why.
post 1653177123 12-25-2021, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
ok, based on some research as a 24yo healthy male who barely goes out and doesnt want to travel I am sticking to pureblood status until further notice
That's cool as long as you accept the consequences of your decision.
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post 1653177133 12-25-2021, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted By J.L.C.⏩
Well you said you don't like it, but never said why.
btw I have looked at many sources that involve some type of breakdown and it is all matched up (excl minor rounding)


I have no problems with your source being a projection, but I still don't understand why the breakdown is not matched
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post 1653177253 12-25-2021, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
btw I have looked at many sources that involve some type of breakdown and it is all matched up (excl minor rounding)


I have no problems with your source being a projection, but I still don't understand why the breakdown is not matched
I'm not trying to present any of this as "mine". It's just what we have and I agree the format is poor.

This is the site, take a look without screen caps if you want to see it directly.

https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/

It's specific to Ontario, Canada.
post 1653177633 12-25-2021, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
I'm not questioning why it doesn't match up - I'm questioning why it is completely out to lunch.

To make the numbers work, there's either

1. Something like a few million people in Ontario who aren't under either of those groups ( not possible ),
2. Or the vaccine currently has an efficacy in the range of negative 15-18%.

All number are OTOH without doing any actual calculations.

Please note that the website you keep linking has been debunked as a site that has fake data.
Where has it been debunked?
post 1653177693 12-25-2021, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
So you believe these numbers to be correct?



Just LOL at beavercels srs.
Um...
Originally Posted By atgbrahsrs⏩
wait, how can the total cases for 25th December be lower than the breakdown of the same between unvax and vax


strong everything
Yes. And I would expect ALL of the numbers to be "per 1 million" unless notated otherwise.
Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
So those numbers are just projections?

I wonder why you used them to counter actual data then?

And I wonder why they are out by what amounts to millions of people?

Just LOL at the intellectual dishonesty - and the effort being put into trying to hide it.



To make Ontario's "projected numbers" work (as provided by our resident vaxcuck), one would have to assume something along the lines of negative 15-18% efficacy.

Yes, you read that right, negative.
So much for "more vaxxed cases because most people are vaxxed" then, eh?
Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
I'm not questioning why it doesn't match up - I'm questioning why it is completely out to lunch.

To make the numbers work, there's either

1. Something like a few million people in Ontario who aren't under either of those groups ( not possible ),
2. Or the vaccine currently has an efficacy in the range of negative 15-18%.

All number are OTOH without doing any actual calculations.



Or, instead of claiming "it's what we have" we can go to the actual official website:

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

Please note that the website you keep linking has been debunked as a site that has fake data.
I would say you could have started with that, but you seem to be having fun.
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