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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1674239703 01-06-2023, 08:11 AM
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#1801
  1. camaleom
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well every business that I know is hiring and even those firing people are still hiring LOL

that is not going to change anytime soon.
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1674241663 01-06-2023, 08:44 AM
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#1802
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Does anyone have recommendations on funds to pick up for Roth contributions?

A new year means it’s time to load it up, just looking for opinions on how to fill it.
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post 1674243453 01-06-2023, 09:09 AM
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#1803
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good old squeeze on

they were pricing insanity with NFP and here you got it

don't ever sleep on any important data like it doesn't matter. (this market is being driven by this garbage cause dummy fed can't give guidance on anything)


this market is doing chess match

fed vs market

they are trying to call each others bluff
post 1674244303 01-06-2023, 09:25 AM
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#1804
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
good old squeeze on

they were pricing insanity with NFP and here you got it

don't ever sleep on any important data like it doesn't matter. (this market is being driven by this garbage cause dummy fed can't give guidance on anything)


this market is doing chess match

fed vs market

they are trying to call each others bluff
Where do you see the USD going?

Was expecting a rebound, but today has kinda ruined that.
post 1674245323 01-06-2023, 09:41 AM
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#1805
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
Where do you see the USD going?

Was expecting a rebound, but today has kinda ruined that.
DXY is depended on fed rate hikes


Feb FOMC meeting before today job report was 50/50 on 25bps vs 50bps

After today its now dropped to 25 bps for Feb meeting

next week is CPI if the number is low 25 bps will be probably 90% lock.


USD depends on fed rate / higher fed rate = higher dollar


atm as you can see from basic lines nothing good for dxy if it losses 103






just to add something.

btw I don't trade fx but do view cause strong dxy = bad for stocks


Bank of Japan has been intervening hard into Yen

Central bank of Japan holds the most US Tresury bills of anyone in world.

What they do will have impact and it doesn't get much attention. Imo you should research that.

Europe omg the worst is coming via nat gas / crude isn't playing out

Truth is Russia is phucked. Putin play of commodities war not working.



post 1674245913 01-06-2023, 09:52 AM
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#1806
  1. NestBrah
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
DXY is depended on fed rate hikes


Feb FOMC meeting before today job report was 50/50 on 25bps vs 50bps

After today its now dropped to 25 bps for Feb meeting

next week is CPI if the number is low 25 bps will be probably 90% lock.


USD depends on fed rate / higher fed rate = higher dollar


atm as you can see from basic lines nothing good for dxy if it losses 103




just to add something.

btw I don't trade fx but do view cause strong dxy = bad for stocks


Bank of Japan has been intervening hard into Yen

Central bank of Japan holds the most US Tresury bills of anyone in world.

What they do will have impact and it doesn't get much attention. Imo you should research that.

Europe omg the worst is coming via nat gas / crude isn't playing out

Truth is Russia is phucked. Putin play of commodities war not working.
Thanks for your analysis. Interesting stuff.

Do you see any viable way in which the USD takes back its September highs, or at least gets near them?
post 1674246403 01-06-2023, 09:59 AM
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#1807
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
Thanks for your analysis. Interesting stuff.

Do you see any viable way in which the USD takes back its September highs, or at least gets near them?
Only way is at some point inflation report comes in hot.

That will mess up fund rate projections right away and dxy reverses.


Right now inflation is straight lining down.

At some point (not betting man) it will stop diving down problem is where.

Does it stop at 5% or 4% etc.
post 1674246453 01-06-2023, 09:59 AM
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Speaking of currencies, CAD vs USD is rallying hard on the back of massive job gains here increasing the likelihood of further rate hikes in Canada
post 1674246743 01-06-2023, 10:03 AM
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#1809
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Only way is at some point inflation report comes in hot.

That will mess up fund rate projections right away and dxy reverses.


Right now inflation is straight lining down.

At some point (not betting man) it will stop diving down problem is where.

Does it stop at 5% or 4% etc.
Okay thanks. I have a bunch of USD I want to exchange into either GBP or EUR, so trying to time it well. Trying to work out if better to go for it now or wait in the hope of a stronger USD.
post 1674246773 01-06-2023, 10:03 AM
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#1810
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Speaking of currencies, CAD vs USD is rallying hard on the back of massive job gains here increasing the likelihood of further rate hikes in Canada
DXY falling leads to inverse on all other currencies.


Not sure if BoC has the balls to do anything but 25BPS at this point.
post 1674247183 01-06-2023, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
DXY falling leads to inverse on all other currencies.


Not sure if BoC has the balls to do anything but 25BPS at this point.
Yeah they had already signaled they were ready to slow down, but I really don't follow the BoC as much as the US Fed

Rarely even look at the exchange rate but decided to glance after seeing the job report
post 1674247273 01-06-2023, 10:10 AM
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#1812
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
Okay thanks. I have a bunch of USD I want to exchange into either GBP or EUR, so trying to time it well. Trying to work out if better to go for it now or wait in the hope of a stronger USD.
You have to determine that via research.

I am not fx trader or expert. Google there is plenty of sites.

I use DXY to determine if stocks are going up/down.



DXY depends a lot of fed rate hikes.
post 1674253653 01-06-2023, 11:56 AM
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#1813
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Does anyone have recommendations on funds to pick up for Roth contributions?

A new year means it’s time to load it up, just looking for opinions on how to fill it.
I'll DCA into S&P 500 and small cap. I'd like to get into the Nasdaq 100, but not right now.
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post 1674255793 01-06-2023, 12:26 PM
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#1814
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nasty


squeeze


market of piss
post 1674256673 01-06-2023, 12:40 PM
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#1815
  1. Abzu
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Dollar movement is dependent on the Fed but it's also weighted against other currencies, if other countries have problems that prevent investment, like lockdowns, then investors will turn to the U.S. dollar.

If China goes off lockdown with no continuing problems from covid then that will increase supply on the American market when we may be entering a recession, this will ultimately lead to a weaker dollar.

I think it's pretty clear what's goin to happen, I'm not going to say what happens to the dollar this year as someone could use that to ride the markets and I don't believe in free lunch.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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post 1674292013 01-07-2023, 01:40 AM
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#1816
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Dollar movement is dependent on the Fed but it's also weighted against other currencies, if other countries have problems that prevent investment, like lockdowns, then investors will turn to the U.S. dollar.

If China goes off lockdown with no continuing problems from covid then that will increase supply on the American market when we may be entering a recession, this will ultimately lead to a weaker dollar.

I think it's pretty clear what's goin to happen, I'm not going to say what happens to the dollar this year as someone could use that to ride the markets and I don't believe in free lunch.
For anyone wanting the answer, I can confirm that it's going to go up or it may go down.

I came up with this conclusion using the sophisticated pull-it-out-my-azz analysis process.
post 1674303763 01-07-2023, 07:22 AM
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#1817
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I'll DCA into S&P 500 and small cap. I'd like to get into the Nasdaq 100, but not right now.
Thanks for the comment. I’m doing VOO, VUG, and VYM in my self-managed brokerage account.

I’m looking for more diversity in my Roth. So far I did $1500 in VFORX, but I don’t want to stick fully to the target date fund approach.

I may just got with a combo of total US market and total international market funds.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1674305883 01-07-2023, 08:17 AM
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#1818
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VYM and IVV is all I do for index funds. Not sure if I should be doing anything else
Ron Paul 2016
post 1674321953 01-07-2023, 02:02 PM
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#1819
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US$ will take off with any war threats too. I still believe the $ will run off to record highs in the coming years
post 1674324213 01-07-2023, 03:00 PM
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#1820
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Originally Posted By lunchbox12⏩
VYM and IVV is all I do for index funds. Not sure if I should be doing anything else
Right now I solely invest long term in index funds. I started hard in May with a self-managed account. Once I get that account to 100k I’ll look into individual stocks.

For now, though, I’m a Boglehead.
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post 1674330303 01-07-2023, 05:03 PM
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#1821
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Thanks for the comment. I’m doing VOO, VUG, and VYM in my self-managed brokerage account.

I’m looking for more diversity in my Roth. So far I did $1500 in VFORX, but I don’t want to stick fully to the target date fund approach.

I may just got with a combo of total US market and total international market funds.
Look into how some got screwed with taxes on the Target Date funds. Might want to avoid or look into it more at least. VOO and VUG should be real good. VUG is similar to MGK and will be a good time in 2023 to buy either imo.
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post 1674343593 01-07-2023, 10:17 PM
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#1822
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so I own some google stock and I was up quite a bit before 2022. I never really thought of a reason of why I owned it but years ago I just heard one of the smarter guys at my job talking about it. I had bought shares for about 1000 before they had their split.

now I'm actually down since i bought more post-split around 120-125 per share.

the more i think about it, apple owns most of the phone market share in the US. and now all these social media companies like twitter, ********, reddit are competing for ads.

I actually think most people spend more time on places like reddit, fb, twitter than just searching for random websites thru google. so wouldn't businesses funnel more money towards those platforms than google in the future?

now chat gpt comes along. and i hear Microsoft is going to implement chatGPT into bing search that might be better than google search.

should I just sell now and take a small loss? Any other googl holders on here? You guys selling or hanging on?

and google is 3rd place amongst the cloud services I believe.
post 1674362393 01-08-2023, 09:12 AM
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#1823
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Google has reply to chatgpt / they always had it just internal.

They are hesitant to launch for various reasons.

chatgpt is burning money from computing cost and there is talk they are looking to go public.

figure that was thrown around from chatgpt ceo was it costs something like $800K per day to run it.




Google revenue stream is good. Imo. (lol I did get crushed by google averaging down before split and than eating shiit after split)

post 1674378133 01-08-2023, 01:11 PM
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#1824
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Originally Posted By Bingo559⏩
so I own some google stock and I was up quite a bit before 2022. I never really thought of a reason of why I owned it but years ago I just heard one of the smarter guys at my job talking about it. I had bought shares for about 1000 before they had their split.

now I'm actually down since i bought more post-split around 120-125 per share.

the more i think about it, apple owns most of the phone market share in the US. and now all these social media companies like twitter, ********, reddit are competing for ads.

I actually think most people spend more time on places like reddit, fb, twitter than just searching for random websites thru google. so wouldn't businesses funnel more money towards those platforms than google in the future?

now chat gpt comes along. and i hear Microsoft is going to implement chatGPT into bing search that might be better than google search.

should I just sell now and take a small loss? Any other googl holders on here? You guys selling or hanging on?

and google is 3rd place amongst the cloud services I believe.
I've been holding/buying MSFT myself. I still think Google is a company worth investing in, but I do not. When I evaluated that decision, at the time, I thought their ad revenue had peaked and didn't see a good reason to invest compared to other tech companies. I forget where I read this, maybe WSJ? I read that Google went into panic mode when they heard about the Bing changes. IIRC Google search engine keeps losing it's market share, but still clearly dominate. With all their sponsored BS with crap results, I can see them continue to lose market share of the search engine.
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post 1674431763 01-09-2023, 07:09 AM
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#1825
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BABA is up $6 pre-market to $113. I’m going to sell my calls at $117. If I hold until $118 that’d be exactly 100% rise on the underlying since I entered them lol
post 1674436143 01-09-2023, 08:22 AM
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#1826
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another day another

DXY down

Market up


thats all you need to care about atm
post 1674440723 01-09-2023, 09:47 AM
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#1827
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40ish points away from that blue line and 200DMA

this line has been sell all of 2022.

will it be different this time?


This week with Jerome speaking tmmrw and CPI Thursday market should be able to test that level.

post 1674455243 01-09-2023, 01:08 PM
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#1828
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
40ish points away from that blue line and 200DMA

this line has been sell all of 2022.

will it be different this time?


This week with Jerome speaking tmmrw and CPI Thursday market should be able to test that level.

Powell has no interest in feeding the market. He’s going to keep telling everyone off and probably another hike to boot.

Job market is still obscene. I just finished the training for an overnight hospital gig which is strictly “on call” basically every night every other week. They said average weekly number of calls from 2022 was 3(keep in mind this is 3 calls not having to physically go into the hospital 3x a week). and that they took away nighttime “on call” as a benefit to the day time crew to try to improve retention. I don’t even want to say what they are paying because it seems silly they accepted my counter offer. I guess I will see how it turns out if it’s more work than I anticipate lol.
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post 1674463603 01-09-2023, 03:19 PM
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#1829
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I favor the downside move.

Problem is that in this market you can easily get squeezed real quick based off nothing.


Just one event like Jpow tmmrw will cause +/- 100 point move on SP 500.

Same with CPI coming this Thursday.


By Friday this week.

SP 500 will be at 3800 or 4000.

Thats the range here for this week.
post 1674466783 01-09-2023, 04:22 PM
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#1830
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I favor the downside move.

Problem is that in this market you can easily get squeezed real quick based off nothing.


Just one event like Jpow tmmrw will cause +/- 100 point move on SP 500.

Same with CPI coming this Thursday.


By Friday this week.

SP 500 will be at 3800 or 4000.

Thats the range here for this week.
It’s blowing my mind yields are dropping this much from around 4% a week ago
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