USD is getting steam rolled

BTC Pumping

Meme names pumping

Yields diving

SP 500 over 200 DMA




Suspect stuff atm but don't ever short slow moving market it can grind higher till they decide to take profit.

Momentum is with buyers.

Trying to get in front of it will hurt.

Better to join ride (feels late atm) or wait till it starts to go other way.

Sounds like the Fed has a lot more room to hike tbh

Sounds like the Fed has a lot more room to hike tbh

They've been pretty open about it. Market just refuses to believe it.

JPow seems particularly wary of making the same historical mistake of stepping on the brakes too early only to have inflation pump again. I have every expectation that they'll follow through with going higher and for longer . . . and that they'll almost certainly overdo it.

BBBY lets goooooo


what a time to be alive


feels like 2021 all over again


woooooo




/joking


healthy market of piss

They've been pretty open about it. Market just refuses to believe it.

JPow seems particularly wary of making the same historical mistake of stepping on the brakes too early only to have inflation pump again. I have every expectation that they'll follow through with going higher and for longer . . . and that they'll almost certainly overdo it.

I mean

BBBY and CVNA going into bankruptcy are up 400 percent in week.

This is like screaming just matter of when they crush this nonsense.

Clearly big money squeezing the living life out of everything.

Between this type of stuff and crypto heading a bit upwards, I mean I know what that suggests to me: there is still way too much money floating around.

If they even feather that brake right now, I think we'd see an '80s-style inflation spike to new highs

Between this type of stuff and crypto heading a bit upwards, I mean I know what that suggests to me: there is still way too much money floating around.

If they even feather that brake right now, I think we'd see an '80s-style inflation spike to new highs

True. You think oil will fade though? Looks like supply is very healthy right now and lots of investment has been made since 2020 to keep supply coming. I’m sick of the dog shyt that forced the TGA merger. EGYs non TGA assets are dry holes in the fking ground. I’m hoping oil companies keep jumping tomorrow and I’ll sell a 50/50 mix of $4 and $5 CCs tomorrow against all my shares and hope they get called at $5.

Tesla just cut prices massively in North America, 20% on the Model Y and too many other cuts to detail fully

There could be other implications to consider too, like people who financed at high prices being instantly underwater on their loan from an actual MSRP cut and what that could mean for the financing side of the industry.

Apparently if you plug an almost a brand a 2022-2023 Model Y into Tesla's trade-in estimator, the value offered is legitimately like half of the recent MSRP.

Legacy OEMs are much wiser keeping MSRP constant but adjusting through more "temporary" discounts to MSRP

Let's be srs, those that can afford a Tesla don't have to worry about money very much.

Model S and X at $100k+ yeah, the Model 3 and Y were supposed to be more affordable mass market vehicles and never should have been $60k+

People were out of their minds paying those prices IMO, and these might not be the last cuts depending on interest rate policy going forward

Any thoughts on where market moves next week? Just shorted AFRM for some small gains, hoping we dip

Difficult question to have answer.

At this point it is best to look at from both sides:

Buyer vs Seller.

Buyers after this week have lot of things going for them.

-SP 500 closed above the 200 daily moving average.

-cleared the key trend line resistance going back to market top

-Bank earnings were good (actually too phucking good)

I suggest going over this JPM earnings report in depth and guidance for this year /// look at those provisions they sure aren't preparing for worst scorched earth moment as of yet.
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir

-Rarely is this chart thrown here but 200 weekly moving average is really powerful indicator.

Its extremely rare that it gets violated without some major recession as you can see where it why it went under here.

Buyers make the case here that low of this current market up trend was last October 2022.

[im]https://i.imgur.com/n4hUY4n.png[mg]



Seller Case

-market is fighting fed that never ends well

-market pricing in too many rate cuts already

-commodity turn around / which could bring back inflation again

-trend line resistance that worked all of 2022

[ig]https://i.imgur.com/pcp8i1l.png[ig]





Here is what I think atm again this is irrelevant just my opinion if you're investing at least once week scan market


-too late to chase long as of right now (you have to be crazy to go long here chasing tops / there should be pull back )

-you can go look up most single stock names and not hard to spot they bought the low around October

-this is the most talked about coming recession in our life time / every day articles are flowing.

you can see how this can be problem when everyone is throwing it at you more often than not it doesn't play out that way.


so now comes the question.

what catalyst is going to cause this market to crash?

I can only think of 3 black swan scenarios

1. Russia uses tactical Nuke (20 percent chance)

2. China attacks Taiwan (5 percent chance)

3. some new super variant of covid (I give this 0.1 chance)

Its possible to pin market and trade sideways till earnings that carry the the big weight. (last week of Jan and first week of Feb come out. apple/msft/amzn/goog/berk/xom )

Also FOMC is Feb 2nd and Apple reports next day.

Going back to the banks that reported day the big one JPM only calls for mild recession (they could be lying through their teeth)

However examining their balance sheet for Q4 their provisions increase (money set aside in case customers start to default) went up / however nothing that goes holy shiit what are they preparing for.

They have enough money on the side that they can cover / pretty easily.


Market needs catalyst / not sure what it could be.

IDK, something wrong here. With the "good news" of inflation, we've seen retail stocks pump. Now bitcoin getting pumped bigly.

Yet the yield curve is still deeply inverted. All we hear about on the news are layoffs, yet the "job market is still strong."

Kind of feels like retail is being setup for a rug pull.

IDK, something wrong here. With the "good news" of inflation, we've seen retail stocks pump. Now bitcoin getting pumped bigly.

Yet the yield curve is still deeply inverted. All we hear about on the news are layoffs, yet the "job market is still strong."

Kind of feels like retail is being setup for a rug pull.

IDK, something wrong here. With the "good news" of inflation, we've seen retail stocks pump. Now bitcoin getting pumped bigly.

Yet the yield curve is still deeply inverted. All we hear about on the news are layoffs, yet the "job market is still strong."

Kind of feels like retail is being setup for a rug pull.

I think we do get a rug pull followed by a slingshot move up in Q2. 2022 did a whole lot of nothing.