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MISC Crypto Crew (MCC) Vol: XIII: Money printer goes brrrrrr, But Bitcoin doesnt
12-26-2020, 09:23 PM
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#2161
- Grinners
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Originally Posted By Serenadium⏩
I wouldn't criticise anyone who chose that strategy.highly advise against doing this:
You'll suffer a grinners' decay of 47% after 9 iterations of 30% ATHs.
At $275,000, the grinner's decay is $3.9m compared to someone that just holds (for an initial investment of $1m).
My method is similar to the method someone mentioned earlier, only take out a % for life changing events (sick family member, something that will genuinely help you achieve self actualisation, cancer treatment etc).
My structure is as follows:
- 10% can be sold only for personal desires and ambitions of significance (i.e. exposure to something, filling a hole in life etc). Not bull**** purchases like cars or a wedding.
- 40% only for significant life changing events (i.e. I get prostate cancer or immediate family member gets a terminal illness).
- 50% to be unsold and taken to the grave. This seems irrational but it will be my BTC high score in life.
You'll suffer a grinners' decay of 47% after 9 iterations of 30% ATHs.
At $275,000, the grinner's decay is $3.9m compared to someone that just holds (for an initial investment of $1m).
My method is similar to the method someone mentioned earlier, only take out a % for life changing events (sick family member, something that will genuinely help you achieve self actualisation, cancer treatment etc).
My structure is as follows:
- 10% can be sold only for personal desires and ambitions of significance (i.e. exposure to something, filling a hole in life etc). Not bull**** purchases like cars or a wedding.
- 40% only for significant life changing events (i.e. I get prostate cancer or immediate family member gets a terminal illness).
- 50% to be unsold and taken to the grave. This seems irrational but it will be my BTC high score in life.
Counter-point: My Bitcoin belief is as high as (almost) anyones. Having said that, there are risks to it.
Namely:
1) A Cryptographic break, that renders the UTXO set un-recoverable.
2) Significant damage to it's value if the market mis-allocates capital and dethrones Bitcoin (temporarily or permanently) through sheer ignorance.
3) Significant damage to it's value if large and collaborative government crackdowns are made.
The chance of any of these occurring is low, but it isn't 0.
In your example, a cryptographic break at $125,000 would see the full portfolio be worth $0, whereas the 'Grinners Decay' portfolio would be worth $930,000 (in other assets).
Alternatively, is Bitcoin doesn't break at $125,000, you would have $4.8mil of Bitcoin vs $3.5mil of Bitcoin and $930,000 worth of other assets.
Food for thought.
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12-26-2020, 09:27 PM
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#2162
Exit strategies are very personal. Unless they misalign with the desire/intention of the individual, they aren't "wrong".
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12-26-2020, 09:38 PM
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#2163
- ghostfacedup
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So what happens if/when China creates a crypto tied to their massive gold holdings? They'll be able to track everything.
12-26-2020, 09:43 PM
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#2164
- Serenadium
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Originally Posted By Grinners⏩
My views are those risks are becoming increasingly small:I wouldn't criticise anyone who chose that strategy.
Counter-point: My Bitcoin belief is as high as (almost) anyones. Having said that, there are risks to it.
Namely:
1) A Cryptographic break, that renders the UTXO set un-recoverable.
2) Significant damage to it's value if the market mis-allocates capital and dethrones Bitcoin (temporarily or permanently) through sheer ignorance.
3) Significant damage to it's value if large and collaborative government crackdowns are made.
The chance of any of these occurring is low, but it isn't 0.
In your example, a cryptographic break at $125,000 would see the full portfolio be worth $0, whereas the 'Grinners Decay' portfolio would be worth $930,000 (in other assets).
Alternatively, is Bitcoin doesn't break at $125,000, you would have $4.8mil of Bitcoin vs $3.5mil of Bitcoin and $930,000 worth of other assets.
Food for thought.
Counter-point: My Bitcoin belief is as high as (almost) anyones. Having said that, there are risks to it.
Namely:
1) A Cryptographic break, that renders the UTXO set un-recoverable.
2) Significant damage to it's value if the market mis-allocates capital and dethrones Bitcoin (temporarily or permanently) through sheer ignorance.
3) Significant damage to it's value if large and collaborative government crackdowns are made.
The chance of any of these occurring is low, but it isn't 0.
In your example, a cryptographic break at $125,000 would see the full portfolio be worth $0, whereas the 'Grinners Decay' portfolio would be worth $930,000 (in other assets).
Alternatively, is Bitcoin doesn't break at $125,000, you would have $4.8mil of Bitcoin vs $3.5mil of Bitcoin and $930,000 worth of other assets.
Food for thought.
1. the UTXO set is stored in every full node. If there is a cryptographic break, we can just fork to an iteration prior to the break to a resistant algorithm/consensus mechanism.
2. I am not sure this is possible anymore with institutions hoarding BTC in significant quantities over other cryptocurrency. With each passing day this happens, BTC becomes more lindy. The ETH world-computer narrative is the closest thing that may bring a temporal irrational overtaking of BTC in valuation, however despite:
1. ETH uses cases being at an all time high
2. Gas fees being at an all time high
3. Value locked on-chain being at an all time high
4. Hashrate being at an ATH
5. Staked ETH at an ATH
6. Grayscale ETH trust at an ATH
The price remains a small proportion of its ATH and the ETHBTC chart swan dives like any other alt. This suggests to me ETH has poor value capture and order is being restored (i.e. the emergence of a clear dominant non-sovereign SOV).
3. Perhaps but this seems increasingly unlikely with the mass products and services that have been permitted for so long (CEXs, ETFs, hedge fund purchases, VC purchases). There are also now a significant number of crypto friendly politicians and administrators in positions of significance (senate + sec board etc)
Bitcoin's SOV status is a schelling point and becomes more lindy with each passing day, so much so, that it now represents over 50% of my portfolio and I have no plans to sell (been dcaing at scale from $1800 to $6000).
12-26-2020, 09:52 PM
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#2165
- Grinners
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Originally Posted By Serenadium⏩
I agree almost entirely with everything you've said here.My views are those risks are becoming increasingly small:
1. the UTXO set is stored in every full node. If there is a cryptographic break, we can just fork to an iteration prior to the break to a resistant algorithm/consensus mechanism.
2. I am not sure this is possible anymore with institutions hoarding BTC in significant quantities over other cryptocurrency. With each passing day this happens, BTC becomes more lindy. The ETH world-computer narrative is the closest thing that may bring a temporal irrational overtaking of BTC in valuation, however despite:
1. ETH uses cases being at an all time high
2. Gas fees being at an all time high
3. Value locked on-chain being at an all time high
4. Hashrate being at an ATH
5. Staked ETH at an ATH
6. Grayscale ETH trust at an ATH
The price remains a small proportion of its ATH and the ETHBTC chart swan dives like any other alt. This suggests to me ETH has poor value capture and order is being restored (i.e. the emergence of a clear dominant non-sovereign SOV).
3. Perhaps but this seems increasingly unlikely with the mass products and services that have been permitted for so long (CEXs, ETFs, hedge fund purchases, VC purchases). There are also now a significant number of crypto friendly politicians and administrators in positions of significance (senate + sec board etc)
Bitcoin's SOV status is a schelling point and becomes more lindy with each passing day, so much so, that it now represents over 50% of my portfolio and I have no plans to sell (been dcaing at scale from $1800 to $6000).
1. the UTXO set is stored in every full node. If there is a cryptographic break, we can just fork to an iteration prior to the break to a resistant algorithm/consensus mechanism.
2. I am not sure this is possible anymore with institutions hoarding BTC in significant quantities over other cryptocurrency. With each passing day this happens, BTC becomes more lindy. The ETH world-computer narrative is the closest thing that may bring a temporal irrational overtaking of BTC in valuation, however despite:
1. ETH uses cases being at an all time high
2. Gas fees being at an all time high
3. Value locked on-chain being at an all time high
4. Hashrate being at an ATH
5. Staked ETH at an ATH
6. Grayscale ETH trust at an ATH
The price remains a small proportion of its ATH and the ETHBTC chart swan dives like any other alt. This suggests to me ETH has poor value capture and order is being restored (i.e. the emergence of a clear dominant non-sovereign SOV).
3. Perhaps but this seems increasingly unlikely with the mass products and services that have been permitted for so long (CEXs, ETFs, hedge fund purchases, VC purchases). There are also now a significant number of crypto friendly politicians and administrators in positions of significance (senate + sec board etc)
Bitcoin's SOV status is a schelling point and becomes more lindy with each passing day, so much so, that it now represents over 50% of my portfolio and I have no plans to sell (been dcaing at scale from $1800 to $6000).
Everyone has to decide on the appropriate allocations for themselves, as Lucifer said, and I'm sure our views are aligned 95%!
"Testosterone levels peak during a man's late 20's but decline soon after, decreasing about 1.5 percent per year after age 30. "
"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense." - Buddha
!!!+052 kcab per lliW
12-26-2020, 10:59 PM
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#2166
Originally Posted By Serenadium⏩
Eth is still in infancy. Remember bitcoin has had a 6/7 year headstart and people are finally wrapping their head around bitcoin, which is incredibly simple compared to ethereum. Half of the people in this thread probably dont wtf ethereum is/does, let alone normies. Right now for ethereum is like what 2011 was for bitcoin.My views are those risks are becoming increasingly small:
1. the UTXO set is stored in every full node. If there is a cryptographic break, we can just fork to an iteration prior to the break to a resistant algorithm/consensus mechanism.
2. I am not sure this is possible anymore with institutions hoarding BTC in significant quantities over other cryptocurrency. With each passing day this happens, BTC becomes more lindy. The ETH world-computer narrative is the closest thing that may bring a temporal irrational overtaking of BTC in valuation, however despite:
1. ETH uses cases being at an all time high
2. Gas fees being at an all time high
3. Value locked on-chain being at an all time high
4. Hashrate being at an ATH
5. Staked ETH at an ATH
6. Grayscale ETH trust at an ATH
The price remains a small proportion of its ATH and the ETHBTC chart swan dives like any other alt.This suggests to me ETH has poor value capture and order is being restored (i.e. the emergence of a clear dominant non-sovereign SOV).
3. Perhaps but this seems increasingly unlikely with the mass products and services that have been permitted for so long (CEXs, ETFs, hedge fund purchases, VC purchases). There are also now a significant number of crypto friendly politicians and administrators in positions of significance (senate + sec board etc)
Bitcoin's SOV status is a schelling point and becomes more lindy with each passing day, so much so, that it now represents over 50% of my portfolio and I have no plans to sell (been dcaing at scale from $1800 to $6000).
1. the UTXO set is stored in every full node. If there is a cryptographic break, we can just fork to an iteration prior to the break to a resistant algorithm/consensus mechanism.
2. I am not sure this is possible anymore with institutions hoarding BTC in significant quantities over other cryptocurrency. With each passing day this happens, BTC becomes more lindy. The ETH world-computer narrative is the closest thing that may bring a temporal irrational overtaking of BTC in valuation, however despite:
1. ETH uses cases being at an all time high
2. Gas fees being at an all time high
3. Value locked on-chain being at an all time high
4. Hashrate being at an ATH
5. Staked ETH at an ATH
6. Grayscale ETH trust at an ATH
The price remains a small proportion of its ATH and the ETHBTC chart swan dives like any other alt.This suggests to me ETH has poor value capture and order is being restored (i.e. the emergence of a clear dominant non-sovereign SOV).
3. Perhaps but this seems increasingly unlikely with the mass products and services that have been permitted for so long (CEXs, ETFs, hedge fund purchases, VC purchases). There are also now a significant number of crypto friendly politicians and administrators in positions of significance (senate + sec board etc)
Bitcoin's SOV status is a schelling point and becomes more lindy with each passing day, so much so, that it now represents over 50% of my portfolio and I have no plans to sell (been dcaing at scale from $1800 to $6000).
$0 or $1 million crypto crew
Ex-OMG crew
12-26-2020, 11:05 PM
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#2167
12-26-2020, 11:21 PM
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#2168
12-26-2020, 11:22 PM
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#2169
- Gorillajewshead
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No coiners and Xrp moon boys on suicide watch
12-26-2020, 11:31 PM
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#2170
- ghostfacedup
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Fark I should've bought more. Please correct
12-26-2020, 11:31 PM
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#2171
- eternalone423
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- eternalone423
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28k is imminent. This is crazy
โผ "Don't stop. Never quit. No excuses." โผ
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12-26-2020, 11:33 PM
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#2172
Right now I'm 64% BTC, 29% ETH. Which aligns to BTC dominance:
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12-26-2020, 11:34 PM
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#2173
- Serenadium
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Originally Posted By Grinners⏩
Maintaining $930,000 worth of assets is also a big assumption (noting you are scaling in over time remember).In your example, a cryptographic break at $125,000 would see the full portfolio be worth $0, whereas the 'Grinners Decay' portfolio would be worth $930,000 (in other assets).
Alternatively, is Bitcoin doesn't break at $125,000, you would have $4.8mil of Bitcoin vs $3.5mil of Bitcoin and $930,000 worth of other assets.
Food for thought.
Alternatively, is Bitcoin doesn't break at $125,000, you would have $4.8mil of Bitcoin vs $3.5mil of Bitcoin and $930,000 worth of other assets.
Food for thought.
1. How do you know your stocks will maintain their value? there is a good argument to suggest stocks are in a bubble and notwithstanding that quantitative easing may further inflate the bubble, history often suggest there is a deflationary collapse prior to a return to the norm. Many of the companies also operate at very low P/E ratios or at a loss (Tesla), how do you know for certain they will appreciate?
2. If you reside in US or Australia, you need to pay a capital gains tax on your sell. Given you sized in significantly at the start of the year, a portion of the 5% you sold will be need to be declared 100% as income. Even if a CGT discount exists in your country, you are likely looking at a 15-25% tax on your overall gains. Someone that just holds BTC doesn't trigger CGT events and can cash out in a tax-friendly country once a certain NW is obtained (i.e. Singapore, Uruguay etc)
3. The 5% cash allocation will continue to be debased.
12-26-2020, 11:37 PM
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#2174
- Parkerscott
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Originally Posted By Serenadium⏩
You can't cash out in another country unless you want to give up that blue passport.Maintaining $930,000 worth of assets is also a big assumption (noting you are scaling in over time remember).
1. How do you know your stocks will maintain their value? there is a good argument to suggest stocks are in a bubble and notwithstanding that quantitative easing may further inflate the bubble, history often suggest there is a deflationary collapse prior to a return to the norm. Many of the companies also operate at very low P/E ratios or at a loss (Tesla), how do you know for certain they will appreciate?
2. If you reside in US or Australia, you need to pay a capital gains tax on your sell. Given you sized in significantly at the start of the year, a portion of the 5% you sold will be need to be declared 100% as income. Even if a CGT discount exists in your country, you are likely looking at a 15-25% tax on your overall gains. Someone that just holds BTC doesn't trigger CGT events and can cash out in a tax-friendly country once a certain NW is obtained (i.e. Singapore, Uruguay etc)
3. The 5% cash allocation will continue to be debased.
1. How do you know your stocks will maintain their value? there is a good argument to suggest stocks are in a bubble and notwithstanding that quantitative easing may further inflate the bubble, history often suggest there is a deflationary collapse prior to a return to the norm. Many of the companies also operate at very low P/E ratios or at a loss (Tesla), how do you know for certain they will appreciate?
2. If you reside in US or Australia, you need to pay a capital gains tax on your sell. Given you sized in significantly at the start of the year, a portion of the 5% you sold will be need to be declared 100% as income. Even if a CGT discount exists in your country, you are likely looking at a 15-25% tax on your overall gains. Someone that just holds BTC doesn't trigger CGT events and can cash out in a tax-friendly country once a certain NW is obtained (i.e. Singapore, Uruguay etc)
3. The 5% cash allocation will continue to be debased.
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12-26-2020, 11:47 PM
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#2175
- Serenadium
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Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
I'm willing to give up my (blue) passport if it I can cash out tax free at certain countries.You can't cash out in another country unless you want to give up that blue passport.
12-26-2020, 11:53 PM
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#2176
- Parkerscott
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Originally Posted By Serenadium⏩
That would be the worst investment you ever make srs. Just bite the bullet and pay the LT. Im not a big fan of the trajectory the U.S. is headed, but renouncing citizenship for a couple milly is not worth it.I'm willing to give up my (blue) passport if it I can cash out tax free at certain countries.
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12-27-2020, 12:01 AM
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#2177
- ghostfacedup
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Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
A couple milly??? Lol that's life changing. He could live like a king outside of the USThat would be the worst investment you ever make srs. Just bite the bullet and pay the LT. Im not a big fan of the trajectory the U.S. is headed, but renouncing citizenship for a couple milly is not worth it.
12-27-2020, 12:14 AM
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#2178
- jamalfudge
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Originally Posted By Serenadium⏩
We might be finding out soon that the lead (Pb) might be the most valuable passport of them all...I'm willing to give up my (blue) passport if it I can cash out tax free at certain countries.
Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
heheThat would be the worst investment you ever make srs. Just bite thebullet and pay the LT. Im not a big fan of the trajectory the U.S. is headed, but renouncing citizenship for a couple milly is not worth it.
#
12-27-2020, 12:30 AM
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#2179
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Originally Posted By ghostfacedup⏩
He could live like an alien outside of the US. Once you renounce theres no going back. I get the appeal of wanting to renounce for tax purposes, and I get that having a chit ton of cash can afford you a different life, but I personally don't think its worth it. A U.S passport gives you embassy access, longer foreign visas, access to the U.S. markets like land etc etc. It is an extremely huge decision and should not be made lightly even if you have $15m sitting in the bank.A couple milly??? Lol that's life changing. He could live like a king outside of the US
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12-27-2020, 01:09 AM
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#2180
12-27-2020, 01:18 AM
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#2181
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Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
Where I live, crypto gains are tax free after 1 year of hodling. Main reason I haven't sold any in 2017.You can't cash out in another country unless you want to give up that blue passport.
How to lose fat for Noobs: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=129247741
12-27-2020, 01:20 AM
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#2182
Originally Posted By Parkerscott⏩
Pretty sure youโll be stung by expatriation tax.You can't cash out in another country unless you want to give up that blue passport.
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12-27-2020, 01:29 AM
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#2183
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Originally Posted By Luc1fer⏩
pretty sure thats on taxes owed. So if I had already sold this year and tried to leave without paying my taxes for the 2020 tax year I would get slammed. If you had a crypto stash that had been cooking for 3 years, renounced, and then sold after renouncing then you are in the clear, but have to pay your next countries tax. I don't think its a quick process either, and you would need citizenship in a good country with lax crypto laws.Pretty sure youโll be stung by expatriation tax.
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12-27-2020, 04:04 AM
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#2184
12-27-2020, 04:14 AM
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#2185
- ghostfacedup
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Originally Posted By Gios⏩
Likely no.Would bitcoin cash rise on the back of BTC?
12-27-2020, 04:22 AM
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#2186
12-27-2020, 04:26 AM
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#2187
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Originally Posted By entropy91⏩
28k breached. I'm going to coom.
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12-27-2020, 04:37 AM
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#2188
- Serenadium
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never mind your
- religion
- beliefs
- principles
- values
None of these are important.
This is your god; take the step into infinity and recieve eternal bliss:
- religion
- beliefs
- principles
- values
None of these are important.
This is your god; take the step into infinity and recieve eternal bliss:
12-27-2020, 04:47 AM
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#2189
- Serenadium
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12-27-2020, 05:11 AM
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#2190
- HMFIC_BROWSIN
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Thank god, finally some fuarkin sellers
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