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Thread: The Stock Market

post 1543036081 02-06-2018, 05:51 PM
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#211
  1. Ikeman83
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Just checking, but has SillieBazillie made a thread about the DJI opening at 24,085 and closing at 24912.77 today?
Florida Crew as of 3/21

What part of "Shall Not Be Infringed" are you having trouble with?

Misc Firearms Crew
post 1543036291 02-06-2018, 05:52 PM
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#212
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This volatility is unusually abnormal.

Russians did this.
post 1543037181 02-06-2018, 06:00 PM
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#213
  1. Austanian
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
I've been pounding my fist against the "get your index fund and let it do its thing" investing strategy for awhile now. Buffett was right about index funds outperforming actively managed funds - sure. But now everyone has started tossing their money into these vehicles. More and more money is pouring into ETFs and it's becoming insane. More and more ETFs getting created and more assets being dumped into them. Even some of the actively managed funds are nothing more than index fund closet investors. Problem is, this is starting to create an inflated value of the public equities market. It's essentially its own bubble that is inflating the overall market. However, because these funds are diversified the overall "crash" won't be as severe as we usually see. Nevertheless, it's going to create a certain level of problems with newcomers looking at a passive investing strategy.

There are still great opportunities in the stock market - both on the long and short sides. This type of "bubble" has created anomalies that investors can capitalize on if they are looking hard and doing enough substantial research.
There is nothing else the general investing population can do...

If a Finance Professional can just barely beat the index (Before adding the fees) what chance does an uneducated investor have of doing it? VEGAS ODDS BABY
Retirement Pensions are a thing of the past. That money is getting put into the market. This is why I do think the historic P/E average is no longer the real average, but I also don't think 26 is sustainable.

Those "Great Opportunities" are a pipe dream. The market prices every expected future occurrence. You only "win" when the market is wrong. Sure I might be able to pull open a company's financials and do an analysis and intelligently value a stock and do better. However, it is not easy. If it was actively managed funds would do a lot better... They don't. So you are telling me that a non-fiance professional is going to be able to drastically outperform the market when the professionals cant? No you are out of your fuking mind.
post 1543037811 02-06-2018, 06:07 PM
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#214
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Market goes up and down
Man lands on moon
Dow is still higher than ever
post 1543038201 02-06-2018, 06:11 PM
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#215
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Originally Posted By Ikeman83⏩
Just checking, but has SillieBazillie made a thread about the DJI opening at 24,085 and closing at 24912.77 today?
Dead cats bounce bro. Then they stay down.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1543038821 02-06-2018, 06:17 PM
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#216
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
There is nothing else the general investing population can do...

If a Finance Professional can just barely beat the index (Before adding the fees) what chance does an uneducated investor have of doing it? VEGAS ODDS BABY
Retirement Pensions are a thing of the past. That money is getting put into the market. This is why I do think the historic P/E average is no longer the real average, but I also don't think 26 is sustainable.

Those "Great Opportunities" are a pipe dream. The market prices every expected future occurrence. You only "win" when the market is wrong. Sure I might be able to pull open a company's financials and do an analysis and intelligently value a stock and do better. However, it is not easy. If it was actively managed funds would do a lot better... They don't. So you are telling me that a non-fiance professional is going to be able to drastically outperform the market when the professionals cant? No you are out of your fuking mind.
I think you're missing my point. What I am saying is that index funds are beating fund managers because of the constant flow of assets into ETFs and index funds. What this has created is nothing more than a momentum driven market. So yeah, index funds are going to beat active management so long as people keep pouring assets into this unique bubble that they've created. But what happens when this no longer happens? What happens when the momentum slows and the market starts falling? That's when thehedgefunds will start to outperform the S&P.

And of course there are still opportunities out there. Keep in mind, actively managed funds deal with large sums of assets, which limits many of them to mid and large cap stocks. Look at some of the banks in the small/micro cap space - there is plenty of value there, but funds can't open positions because of the liquidity risk. The market is not completely efficient and some parts are more inefficient then others.
YOU ARE NOT A SLAVE
post 1543038931 02-06-2018, 06:17 PM
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#217
  1. Ikeman83
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Dead cats bounce bro. Then they stay down.
LOL


Florida Crew as of 3/21

What part of "Shall Not Be Infringed" are you having trouble with?

Misc Firearms Crew
post 1543039461 02-06-2018, 06:23 PM
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#218
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Originally Posted By Ikeman83⏩
LOL


Just so I'm clear, you don't think the market will ever trend down under Trump?
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1543039731 02-06-2018, 06:26 PM
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#219
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Just so I'm clear, you don't think the market will ever trend down under Trump?
DOW 40,000+ crew checking in.

It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray

Mods - my avatar is locked by the admin and can't be changed.
post 1543039791 02-06-2018, 06:27 PM
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#220
  1. gachase21
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Meh - the “Great opportunity” is investing in private business.

Always has been always will be.

And hands on operations at that, not silent.

Low debt, generate revenue- and as much as you can with a good margin.

Brb stock value is net book value/ # of shares

Revenue generating income.

When you have low debt and high revenue you are gold.

And if you are buying sites instead of capital leases you are also in a de facto private reit.


I’ll taken my business management operation knowledge over the bean counter musical chair fund managers speculating guesswork any day.


Playin the open market with discretionary money(entertainment money only) is indeed fun though.

Gaining as much knowledge about the open market does have its value.
post 1543039851 02-06-2018, 06:28 PM
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#221
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Originally Posted By Ikeman83⏩
LOL


looking at the 3 month chart I sure hope that's not a head and shoulders I see.
It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray

Mods - my avatar is locked by the admin and can't be changed.
post 1543039981 02-06-2018, 06:30 PM
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#222
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Just so I'm clear, you don't think the market will ever trend down under Trump?
You do know that line could go up continually a while and it be inflation related.

The actually agi value can be less while the index is at a higher number.

Doesn’t mean it’s really up.

The inverse is true as well.
post 1543040031 02-06-2018, 06:30 PM
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#223
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
looking at the 3 month chart I sure hope that's not a head and shoulders I see.
Unpossible, the market must increase 25% each year for the next 7 or it will all have been some grand liberal conspiracy.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1543040231 02-06-2018, 06:32 PM
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#224
  1. SillieBazzillie
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
You do know that line could go up continually a while and it be inflation related.

The actually agi value can be less while the index is at a higher number.

Doesn’t mean it’s really up.

The inverse is true as well.
So the market really doesn't "have" to go down. Good to know.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1543040551 02-06-2018, 06:35 PM
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#225
  1. gachase21
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
So the market really doesn't "have" to go down. Good to know.
Correct and yes I’ll admit that it could create falsified political hype.


It can also be completely seperate as well.

Markets are weird brah


Our hope is just always find a ways to beat Inflation with our retirement investment, even if just a little, hopefullly more.


Of course just because the market is not great doesn’t mean the economy isnt always great.


Some brahs like me might be ballin while it doesn’t reflect for chit in the Dow. Or vice versa.
post 1543040601 02-06-2018, 06:36 PM
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#226
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
Meh - the “Great opportunity” is investing in private business.

Always has been always will be.

And hands on operations at that, not silent.

Low debt, generate revenue- and as much as you can with a good margin.

Brb stock value is net book value/ # of shares

Revenue generating income.

When you have low debt and high revenue you are gold.

And if you are buying sites instead of capital leases you are also in a de facto private reit.


I’ll taken my business management operation knowledge over the bean counter musical chair fund managers speculating guesswork any day.


Playin the open market with discretionary money(entertainment money only) is indeed fun though.

Gaining as much knowledge about the open market does have its value.
But that style of investing isn't going to work for all of someone's assets because of the liquidity issue. I'm a private equity investor too, but I wouldn't allocate all of my assets to that investment style.
YOU ARE NOT A SLAVE
post 1543041141 02-06-2018, 06:42 PM
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#227
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
But that style of investing isn't going to work for all of someone's assets because of the liquidity issue. I'm a private equity investor too, but I wouldn't allocate all of my assets to that investment style.
You never allocateallof your investments anywhere.

Diversity in types.


I’m in open market as well, and reestablish more longs this morning, itt actually


My IRA’s are index fund never touched.


Then you have Real estate, maybe 5% in precious metals, bonds, etc.
post 1543041661 02-06-2018, 06:49 PM
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#228
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
You never allocateallof your investments anywhere.

Diversity in types.


I’m in open market as well, and reestablish more longs this morning, itt actually


My IRA’s are index fund never touched.


Then you have Real estate, maybe 5% in precious metals, bonds, etc.
That's true. I believe that liquidity = lower returns, which makes it expensive, which is why I invest heavily into illiquid assets. But not everybody has that luxury.
YOU ARE NOT A SLAVE
post 1543042311 02-06-2018, 06:56 PM
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#229
  1. gachase21
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All this use the market to directly measure the economy is silly really.

I mean yea it means allot, amongst other things....

Want to really measure the economy?

Real life anecdotal evidence is king.

Story time

The wife is pissy and moody as fuk, and the kids are home already and hungry , and I’m off today.

Tonight Taco Bell for dinner....

Wife wants a milkshake from the local shack though, it always shuts her up.

So I’m gonna go to Walmart and pick up some pads and midol for the wife, ride by Taco Bell to get dinner, then go by the local shack to get a chocolate milkshake.

As I get ready to leave I check my account- how much discretionary money do I have? How much was my last checks?

I get in the car and head to the store. Driving out of the neighborhoods - how many houses are for sale or rent? How many are under construction? How many abandon developments that never got finished are still there? How many houses look remodeled or up kept well?

How are the streets condition and traffic count?

As I pull into Walmart how full is the parking lot compared to the typical amounts that time of day and year? How many new or decent cars are there compared to dilapidated ones?

As I walk into Walmart what is the condition of the facility? How crowded is it? How well staffed is it? How enthusiastic are the employees? How many cashier lanes are open? How well-stocked are the shelves? How are the prices compared to last time I was there?

As I pull out of Walmart on to the main corridor going to Taco Bell- how much traffic is there? How many stores look open compared to normal that time of day? How many new stores are under construction? How many old ones are closed and unoccupied? How many lots are for sale? How many open leases on the strip plaza? How busy do stores appear?

How many now hiring signs do I see?

Are all the billboards being utilized?

As I pull into to Taco Bell how is the condition of the facilities staff etc?. How much food can I get for $30 compared to last time(buying power) how big are the portions for that amount and how is the food quality compared?(Commodity pricing and food grade used).

As I go to the local shack how is it doing compared to the national competitors? Same questions as above for it?

As I drive home I look and notice what the gas prices are. I look at the street and street lights and signs for up keeping. I look for police presence.

How many UPS and FedEx drivers do I see in the neighborhoods? how many boxes do I see in front doors? Do I see any major freight delivery to houses?

Etc etc etc


Thatis a greater economic indicator compared to any quantitative or empirical data.
post 1543043761 02-06-2018, 07:12 PM
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#230
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
Thatis a greater economic indicator compared to any quantitative or empirical data.
Seems like a distinctively local experience though, I mean you're going to notice the effect of local oil boom kicking off or what a one-company employer closing down will do, but presumably national and international data is required to get a broader picture.
"A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand."
post 1543044411 02-06-2018, 07:18 PM
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#231
  1. gachase21
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Originally Posted By Mr
Seems like a distinctively local experience though, I mean you're going to notice the effect of local oil boom kicking off or what a one-company employer closing down will do, but presumably national and international data is required to get a broader picture.
Maybe

Then I’ll get home and call my brah running some
store on the west coast and ask “how are things going”

Then my cuz up north and ditto.


Way more accurate that market indicators imo.

And much of the things I noted are nationally impacted displayed at local level now as national chains have taken precedence to local, and pricing has become less regional.

Kind of a national form of globalization...


Cited quantitative empirical data is just cool pics for kids without wisdom.
post 1543046231 02-06-2018, 07:42 PM
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#232
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
Not sure how you made that assertion from my post....


I will say however the market had had built in pricing with assumptions of the tax plan for a while now, so I guess you could attribute some of that growth too Trump, not near as much as the hype.

How it stands a year and a half from now will tell.
Well you do dick ride trump pretty hard and have praised him in the past so it's easy to assume that you will find a way to make an excuse when something bad happens.
Love Taylor Swift crew
post 1543046481 02-06-2018, 07:46 PM
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#233
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Originally Posted By JD805⏩
Well you do dick ride trump pretty hard and have praised him in the past so it's easy to assume that you will find a way to make an excuse when something bad happens.
Lutz at unaware
post 1543070271 02-07-2018, 02:53 AM
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#234
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Market goes up = Obama's policies
Market goes down = Trump's policieis
Market goes back up = volatility is bad! Trumps' fault.


Strong everything.
post 1543071301 02-07-2018, 03:33 AM
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#235
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
That's true. I believe that liquidity = lower returns, which makes it expensive, which is why I invest heavily into illiquid assets. But not everybody has that luxury.
I’d say private business investment is more liquid -ifyou aren’t slient, but an active part of running the business.

Nothing is more liquid than a solid a$& revenue stream.

Brb agreed upon dividends, brb income, etc.


And the “great opportunity” as phrased earlier is building the business and reinvesting for growth.
post 1543073351 02-07-2018, 04:41 AM
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#236
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Market goes up = Obama's policies
Market goes down = Trump's policieis
Market goes back up = volatility is bad! Trumps' fault.


Strong everything.
Heh, we'll see you in here the next time Trump takes responsibility for the market.
Deepfat: "I guarantee I beat you by at least 6 strokes. Afterwards, I'll slide my thick conservative cawk in your old lady just to finish the job."

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post 1543073411 02-07-2018, 04:43 AM
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#237
  1. Ikeman83
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Market goes up = Obama's policies
Market goes down = Trump's policieis
Market goes back up = volatility is bad! Trumps' fault.


Strong everything.
Lefties done goofed. Blaming the market correction on Trump means that the market going back up is on Trump as well. They just made it Trump's economy, and it's boomin'.
Florida Crew as of 3/21

What part of "Shall Not Be Infringed" are you having trouble with?

Misc Firearms Crew
post 1543073511 02-07-2018, 04:45 AM
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#238
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
There is nothing else the general investing population can do...

If a Finance Professional can just barely beat the index (Before adding the fees) what chance does an uneducated investor have of doing it? VEGAS ODDS BABY
Retirement Pensions are a thing of the past. That money is getting put into the market. This is why I do think the historic P/E average is no longer the real average, but I also don't think 26 is sustainable.

Those "Great Opportunities" are a pipe dream. The market prices every expected future occurrence. You only "win" when the market is wrong. Sure I might be able to pull open a company's financials and do an analysis and intelligently value a stock and do better. However, it is not easy. If it was actively managed funds would do a lot better... They don't. So you are telling me that a non-fiance professional is going to be able to drastically outperform the market when the professionals cant? No you are out of your fuking mind.
I was thinking about this post a bit last night.

I 99.9% fully agree, and almost always this is the same advice I preach, akin to my post #30 here.


I’m also the biggest hypocrite in doing so.

Time and time again I personally don’t follow that and have done quite well honestly.

I’ve stumbled a few times, especially in 2000-2001, and learned, then got back up and kept driving ahead.

I think for a large chunk of any open market stock portfolio it is absolutely correct, however there is always room for movement.

Now don’t get me wrong, running businesses is my forte, investing is just something else I do on the side as part of many other things. I wouldn’t call myself an active trader really.

I think of one of my core principles I live by


Now you don’t want to create easy avenues for failure either.

But in placing too many failsafes you end up in a giant quest for mediocrity.

Some people are fine with that, and that’s cool. I don’t blame them.

I want greatness.

I overcome failures on the way there and I’m not scared of them.(within reason)

It hurts to fall but you get back up.

All that being said, yes you are still on point.
post 1543073781 02-07-2018, 04:55 AM
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#239
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Originally Posted By seven11⏩
Nice list of books man. I have adudible credits and will get some of those
If you're in your 20's and pretty aimless about saving, investing, budgeting/spending and borrowing, like most at that age, then I Will Teach You To Be Rich is also a good book to check out.
Deepfat: "I guarantee I beat you by at least 6 strokes. Afterwards, I'll slide my thick conservative cawk in your old lady just to finish the job."

z4: "So when are you available in September to play?"

Deep: "On second thought, I don't play golf with broads. You're such a scumbag that I'd be much more inclined to just slap the chit out of you."

z4: "MMA match works, too. So when are you available this month?

Deep: "I won't subject myself to being in the presence of a scumbag."
post 1543073991 02-07-2018, 04:59 AM
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#240
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Originally Posted By z4v4⏩
If you're in your 20's and pretty aimless about saving, investing, budgeting/spending and borrowing, like most at that age, then I Will Teach You To Be Rich is also a good book to check out.
good one indeed sir
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