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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
03-10-2023, 10:45 AM
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#2641
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
inb4 Tug asks if he should average down on SIVBIs it too early to confirm this was a one day selloff?
03-10-2023, 10:59 AM
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#2642
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Helluva week right here! All this red and just had the biggest income week of the year so far. Another 20% injection feels NICE.
Funds bought - VOO, VUG, VYM, BND.
Funds bought - VOO, VUG, VYM, BND.
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03-10-2023, 11:05 AM
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#2643
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how fast they closed SIVB.
shiit escalated real fast.
I bet you there is more risky idiot banks that were doing dumb things.
Market started dumping again as soon news hit that SIVB got shut down.
market is so spooked now they are begging for fed pause on 22nd
trying to prevent any more hikes.
SIVB idiots are holding $90B of 10+ year mortgages with an average yield of just 1.6% those are phuckedddd now.
shiit escalated real fast.
I bet you there is more risky idiot banks that were doing dumb things.
Market started dumping again as soon news hit that SIVB got shut down.
market is so spooked now they are begging for fed pause on 22nd
trying to prevent any more hikes.
SIVB idiots are holding $90B of 10+ year mortgages with an average yield of just 1.6% those are phuckedddd now.
03-10-2023, 11:16 AM
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#2644
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Someone was asking what the next catalyst to drop the market could possibly be?
How 'bout rising rates combined with bank failures.
How 'bout rising rates combined with bank failures.
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03-10-2023, 11:21 AM
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#2645
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This bank was doing idiotic things.
Does everyone now need to get bailout because some jackass thought rates can't stay at 5% and went max leverage.
If the fed bends over here and gives up starts cutting rates.
Inflation is going to explode.
This is double edged sword.
Does everyone now need to get bailout because some jackass thought rates can't stay at 5% and went max leverage.
If the fed bends over here and gives up starts cutting rates.
Inflation is going to explode.
This is double edged sword.
03-10-2023, 11:26 AM
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#2646
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Fed ain't gonna stop, Silicon Valley in particular is likely staring down the barrel of further rough times ahead as the free money spigot has been closed up. Pain is necessary to get inflation back in check.
But I don't doubt that events like this, and likely whatever else is coming, are why people and the market so desperately hoped rate cuts were coming this year. Rate hikes so far have been relatively easy, but it will become more and more painful as time goes on here and the Fed's job is to stay the course until it's done because inflation out of control will be far worse than what happens as a result of the QT.
But I don't doubt that events like this, and likely whatever else is coming, are why people and the market so desperately hoped rate cuts were coming this year. Rate hikes so far have been relatively easy, but it will become more and more painful as time goes on here and the Fed's job is to stay the course until it's done because inflation out of control will be far worse than what happens as a result of the QT.
03-10-2023, 11:39 AM
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#2647
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I hope Powell drops the hammer, nobody getting any bailouts and 100pt bump while flipping the bird to the smooth brain Elizabeth warren for trying to put the blame on him for the inevitable recession that’s incoming
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03-10-2023, 11:43 AM
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#2648
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Are we still crashing right now?
This thread is sooo quiet now lol.
Most of this thread thought we were crashing and some were even rejoicing in profits just a week ago lol.
How are your calls doing the ProfitAre we still crashing right now?
This thread is sooo quiet now lol.
Most of this thread thought we were crashing and some were even rejoicing in profits just a week ago lol.
03-10-2023, 11:43 AM
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#2649
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those pos spacs / venture capitalist funds like Scamath were fleecing retail left and right
when music stops its omg
stop it no more rate hikes Jerome
save us.
kicker for next is gonna be
how many more of these small banks were doing dumb shiiit
if Fed bails these ****s out than middle class going to take shiit again.
when music stops its omg
stop it no more rate hikes Jerome
save us.
kicker for next is gonna be
how many more of these small banks were doing dumb shiiit
if Fed bails these ****s out than middle class going to take shiit again.
03-10-2023, 12:00 PM
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#2650
03-10-2023, 12:29 PM
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#2651
- GreatReset1
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I remember when CarbonCuck was saying inflation is going to be transitory.. just like his Uncle **** Joe claimed...
YOU ARE A JOKE!!!
YOU ARE A JOKE!!!
03-10-2023, 12:47 PM
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#2652
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Good luck filing your return with the 25% foreign tax withheldZIM earnings are Monday - currently trading at $19.50/share, with an expected dividend ranging from $0.65 to $8.50 or so.
If they give an $8.50 dividend.. that is a hell of a dividend for a $19.50/share price.
If they give an $8.50 dividend.. that is a hell of a dividend for a $19.50/share price.
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03-10-2023, 12:49 PM
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#2653
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Originally Posted By GreatReset1⏩
Wow the script I applied is working awesome!THIS MESSAGE HAS BEEN FILTERED BY THE POOR PERSON FILTER. TO SEE MESSAGE CONFIRM >$20,000 INCOME
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03-10-2023, 12:56 PM
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#2654
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Don’t you have to file an Israeli tax return ? Oh sounds like you just claimed the tax as an expense?? I already did, got a direct credit on my taxes for that 25%
STEM Wagie Brah
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03-10-2023, 01:07 PM
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#2655
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the fight over rate hikes last 2 days is nuts
this is meme level stuff
look at the flip flopping
1 day ago
1 week ago
1 month ago
25BPS is now back again
you would have to say 25BPS is gonna be lock now.
no way does Jerome do it break market.
25bps is safer bet.
this is meme level stuff
look at the flip flopping
1 day ago
1 week ago
1 month ago
25BPS is now back again
you would have to say 25BPS is gonna be lock now.
no way does Jerome do it break market.
25bps is safer bet.
03-10-2023, 01:22 PM
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#2656
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
IMO it was never gonna be 50. Once we went 25 there wasn’t any going back. Just more hikes for longer.the fight over rate hikes last 2 days is nuts
this is meme level stuff
look at the flip flopping
1 day ago
1 week ago
1 month ago
25BPS is now back again
you would have to say 25BPS is gonna be lock now.
no way does Jerome do it break market.
25bps is safer bet.
this is meme level stuff
look at the flip flopping
1 day ago
1 week ago
1 month ago
25BPS is now back again
you would have to say 25BPS is gonna be lock now.
no way does Jerome do it break market.
25bps is safer bet.
Fitness connoisseur
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03-10-2023, 02:52 PM
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#2657
- monty097
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
The big banks will be fine through all the SVB chit.Banking sector still getting hammered. I might try and catch a bounce. Sold my Sofi CC for next to nothing. Might just buy some calls for them and some other banks.
I bought some more JPM on the initial drop.
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03-10-2023, 04:56 PM
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#2658
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wonder what happens over weekend (tons of data is coming out left and right)....this is like the ftx in making expect with ftx there is nobody to back you up cause you know crypto....
here FDIC only protects up to $250K. all the start ups / vc funds used SIVB...
now companies filing 8K that they have money with SIVB that is now locked up (they are all saying its uninsured)
roku / roblox / blockfi
roku $2B in cash has $500 million locked up
roblox $3B in cash $250 million locked up
block $350 million locked up
will not be shocked if bunch of spacs were using SIVB the names everyone was in love with here. (cough)
so either by Monday someone buys SIVB at bottom of the dollar
JPM just said they have no interest in statement few minutes ago in buying SIVB.
or
Fed takes tax payers money and bails out these losers.
not only is retail holding bags still on roku / rblx / block after rugging
but now they will be paying even more since Fed will need to do something here to help these clowns.
here FDIC only protects up to $250K. all the start ups / vc funds used SIVB...
now companies filing 8K that they have money with SIVB that is now locked up (they are all saying its uninsured)
roku / roblox / blockfi
roku $2B in cash has $500 million locked up
roblox $3B in cash $250 million locked up
block $350 million locked up
will not be shocked if bunch of spacs were using SIVB the names everyone was in love with here. (cough)
so either by Monday someone buys SIVB at bottom of the dollar
JPM just said they have no interest in statement few minutes ago in buying SIVB.
or
Fed takes tax payers money and bails out these losers.
not only is retail holding bags still on roku / rblx / block after rugging
but now they will be paying even more since Fed will need to do something here to help these clowns.
03-10-2023, 05:28 PM
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#2659
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Originally Posted By monty097⏩
That is correct. JPM is too big to fail.The big banks will be fine through all the SVB chit.
I bought some more JPM on the initial drop.
I bought some more JPM on the initial drop.
JPM deposits are $3+ Trillion (SIVB is $200B ish)
Even if JPM was holding bonds that were underwater they have the capital to save off any 'bank run' with ease.
JPM / BAC / Chase all these banks are catered for middle class etc have normal customers.
Meanwhile Silicon Valley Bank was meant for the rich VC fund / startups.
97.3% of deposits at SIVB was over $250K and none of that is insured.
03-10-2023, 06:26 PM
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#2660
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Kinda sounds like exactly the type of wealth that needs to be destroyed to help bring inflation under controlThat is correct. JPM is too big to fail.
JPM deposits are $3+ Trillion (SIVB is $200B ish)
Even if JPM was holding bonds that were underwater they have the capital to save off any 'bank run' with ease.
JPM / BAC / Chase all these banks are catered for middle class etc have normal customers.
Meanwhile Silicon Valley Bank was meant for the rich VC fund / startups.
97.3% of deposits at SIVB was over $250K and none of that is insured.
JPM deposits are $3+ Trillion (SIVB is $200B ish)
Even if JPM was holding bonds that were underwater they have the capital to save off any 'bank run' with ease.
JPM / BAC / Chase all these banks are catered for middle class etc have normal customers.
Meanwhile Silicon Valley Bank was meant for the rich VC fund / startups.
97.3% of deposits at SIVB was over $250K and none of that is insured.
03-10-2023, 07:30 PM
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#2661
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Perfectly targeted net destruction ayyy lmaoKinda sounds like exactly the type of wealth that needs to be destroyed to help bring inflation under control
Fitness connoisseur
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03-10-2023, 07:48 PM
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#2662
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Its not clear yet just how big fall out will be.Kinda sounds like exactly the type of wealth that needs to be destroyed to help bring inflation under control
Long story short.
2021 was the boom of startups
venture capitalist were flushed with cash (fed printer)
startups went to Sillicon Valley Bank to store that money that rich folks were throwing around.
SVB bank holding went from $60B 2019 to $200B by end of 2021.
SVB was getting so much money they didn't know what to do with it that they couldn't loan it out fast enough
Management at bank decided to buy bunch of long term bonds like mortgage backed securities that don't mature in 10 years.
Problem is they thought inflation was transitory and those bonds were never going to lose value (forever low interest rate mentality)
Well end of last year we saw bunch of layoffs most was concentrated in tech sector cause money was thrown around like it was raining money.
AI loan sharks / scooter companies / electric this that etc.
As startup space was bloated companies had to rely on pulling more money out from SVB (most startups don't make profit for long time just rely on venture capitalist to fund them till they turn profit)
Something happened real fast that SVB two days ago decided to do fire sale on their bonds to improve balance sheet.
Once startups got sniff of this.
Most started to panic and run at the bank happened / hence SVIB crashed and now gone.
Regulators came fast and shut it all down.
What happens Monday nobody has clue yet.
Someone bigger buys them out
They get bailed out
No clue.
edit;
there it is
absolute insane $42B run on the bank on single day.
03-10-2023, 07:49 PM
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#2663
- Destor
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I mean really, who better? These are likely the parties who benefitted most from the low rates, money printing, asset inflationPerfectly targeted net destruction ayyy lmao
03-10-2023, 07:54 PM
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#2664
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Imagine being Roblox/Roku and losing 20% of your net worth on your checking account lmaoIts not clear yet just how big fall out will be.
Long story short.
2021 was the boom of startups
venture capitalist were flushed with cash (fed printer)
startups went to Sillicon Valley Bank to store that money that rich folks were throwing around.
SVB bank holding went from $60B 2019 to $200B by end of 2021.
SVB was getting so much money they didn't know what to do with it that they couldn't loan it out fast enough
Management at bank decided to buy bunch of long term bonds like mortgage backed securities that don't mature in 10 years.
Problem is they thought inflation was transitory and those bonds were never going to lose value (forever low interest rate mentality)
Well end of last year we saw bunch of layoffs most was concentrated in tech sector cause money was thrown around like it was raining money.
AI loan sharks / scooter companies / electric this that etc.
As startup space was bloated companies had to rely on pulling more money out from SVB (most startups don't make profit for long time just rely on venture capitalist to fund them till they turn profit)
Something happened real fast that SVB two days ago decided to do fire sale on their bonds to improve balance sheet.
Once startups got sniff of this.
Most started to panic and run at the bank happened / hence SVIB crashed and now gone.
Regulators came fast and shut it all down.
What happens Monday nobody has clue yet.
Someone bigger buys them out
They get bailed out
No clue.
edit;
there it is
absolute insane $42B run on the bank on single day.
Long story short.
2021 was the boom of startups
venture capitalist were flushed with cash (fed printer)
startups went to Sillicon Valley Bank to store that money that rich folks were throwing around.
SVB bank holding went from $60B 2019 to $200B by end of 2021.
SVB was getting so much money they didn't know what to do with it that they couldn't loan it out fast enough
Management at bank decided to buy bunch of long term bonds like mortgage backed securities that don't mature in 10 years.
Problem is they thought inflation was transitory and those bonds were never going to lose value (forever low interest rate mentality)
Well end of last year we saw bunch of layoffs most was concentrated in tech sector cause money was thrown around like it was raining money.
AI loan sharks / scooter companies / electric this that etc.
As startup space was bloated companies had to rely on pulling more money out from SVB (most startups don't make profit for long time just rely on venture capitalist to fund them till they turn profit)
Something happened real fast that SVB two days ago decided to do fire sale on their bonds to improve balance sheet.
Once startups got sniff of this.
Most started to panic and run at the bank happened / hence SVIB crashed and now gone.
Regulators came fast and shut it all down.
What happens Monday nobody has clue yet.
Someone bigger buys them out
They get bailed out
No clue.
edit;
there it is
absolute insane $42B run on the bank on single day.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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03-10-2023, 08:00 PM
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#2665
- Carbonfibre
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My bigger question what in the flying phuck happened to stress tests that Fed said it does on banks.
How was SIVB overlooked.
CEO was sitting on the fed sf board and his own bank did not have risk officer for year.
He just got told to phuck off tonight.
If Fed bails these clowns again this is 08 all over again. Bankers getting free pass.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/c...ed-2023-03-10/
Also just happens this CEO of SIVB sold $4 million of stock few days ago.
Lmao what a corrupt system.
edit:
Just want to add something.
If this turns out to be one off.
Fed/FDIC by Monday will have solution.
As long they make the depositors whole. This crisis could be just blimp, if there is more than SIVB than who really knows what depth of this situation is gonna be.
(one off than KRE ETF should rebound nicely)
One bank being stupid and doing stupid things. They can control one fallout. Systems are in place.
Equity holders of SIVB can go phuck themselves just need to move the depositors to another bank they get their money out than everything solved.
How was SIVB overlooked.
CEO was sitting on the fed sf board and his own bank did not have risk officer for year.
He just got told to phuck off tonight.
If Fed bails these clowns again this is 08 all over again. Bankers getting free pass.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/c...ed-2023-03-10/
Also just happens this CEO of SIVB sold $4 million of stock few days ago.
Lmao what a corrupt system.
edit:
Just want to add something.
If this turns out to be one off.
Fed/FDIC by Monday will have solution.
As long they make the depositors whole. This crisis could be just blimp, if there is more than SIVB than who really knows what depth of this situation is gonna be.
(one off than KRE ETF should rebound nicely)
One bank being stupid and doing stupid things. They can control one fallout. Systems are in place.
Equity holders of SIVB can go phuck themselves just need to move the depositors to another bank they get their money out than everything solved.
03-10-2023, 09:03 PM
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#2666
Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
Lol still emotional I see.How are your calls doing the Profit
I don't have any calls.
So are we crashing?
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03-10-2023, 09:35 PM
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#2667
Originally Posted By taf1968⏩
This year will be about growth and admitting mistakes lol.Someone was asking what the next catalyst to drop the market could possibly be?
How 'bout rising rates combined with bank failures.
How 'bout rising rates combined with bank failures.
Jerome already triggered the recession a few hikes ago and he is STILL going lol.
Inflation is not the story of 2023, it's going to collapse and the Fed will act surprised lol.
We all know with a significant degree of certainty that the fed is going to keep raising rates this year but pause at some point.
We all know with some degree of certainty that it will be in 25bp increments.
Now if you can find the terminal rate, you can predict when the Fed pivots.
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03-11-2023, 09:46 AM
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#2668
- taf1968
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Pretty much. The Fed isn't stopping, much less actually cutting, anytime soon. I didn't think they'd go 50 point this next time around anyway . . . but they definitely aren't after this bank failure & panic. They'll just keep laying on 25 point bumps more times than some thought and hold it there.Fed ain't gonna stop, Silicon Valley in particular is likely staring down the barrel of further rough times ahead as the free money spigot has been closed up. Pain is necessary to get inflation back in check.
But I don't doubt that events like this, and likely whatever else is coming, are why people and the market so desperately hoped rate cuts were coming this year. Rate hikes so far have been relatively easy, but it will become more and more painful as time goes on here and the Fed's job is to stay the course until it's done because inflation out of control will be far worse than what happens as a result of the QT.
But I don't doubt that events like this, and likely whatever else is coming, are why people and the market so desperately hoped rate cuts were coming this year. Rate hikes so far have been relatively easy, but it will become more and more painful as time goes on here and the Fed's job is to stay the course until it's done because inflation out of control will be far worse than what happens as a result of the QT.
Inflation needs to come down a lot further and things will have to get a whole lot worse before a cut comes. As you noted, NOT doing that will be far worse across the board vs the pain of continuing on the path we're on.
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03-11-2023, 10:36 AM
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#2669
03-11-2023, 01:34 PM
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#2670
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
It is projected to decline to the mean. Which shouldn't be much change.How do you guys see the USD performing over the next 1-2 months, especially with all this SVB chaos in mind?
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♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
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