**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

09-21-2022, 02:04 PM

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#241

dopamine72
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩

that was one fuk of a close dayum

Haven't been this pissed off in a while

I was happier Dec 2018 when I was down over 30k

Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240

09-21-2022, 02:10 PM

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#242

chickenbroccoli
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That was ugly. Seems pretty dumb to be bullish on anything when everything is trading below their moving averages

09-21-2022, 02:15 PM

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#243

SpeedCheeser
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Went in pretty short today, so that close worked out rather nicely for me. But man, what a ride it was getting there.

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RIP YGST

09-21-2022, 02:17 PM

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#244

heiltrump2024
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SPY 360 is not far off at this point - new all time low before midterms? would be surprised if that happened

09-21-2022, 02:23 PM

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#245

RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By claudio_snchz⏩

So WTF is going to happen tomorrow boyos? The closer today was nasty.

Fed said the plan. Hikes continue until morale is lower. Companies/sectors with poor cash flow and higher borrowing are going to get hit first. It is time to start dunking on companies with high debt, vastly increased expenses (labor or supply chain problems), and/or flat to negative growth. I've picked Ford and WBA thus far. I'm considering getting some apple puts presuming everyone already upgraded to iphone 13 and won't need another for 1-2+ years.

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09-21-2022, 02:50 PM

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#246

Carbonfibre
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close was brutal without doubt.

first close that post FOMC didn't smoke put holders.

trapped those call buyers that always think Jerome is there to save them.

losing major 3800 support.

not good for bulls / dip buyers.

this is going to need continuation tmmrw and Friday.

09-21-2022, 02:51 PM

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#247

SpeedCheeser
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩

anyone been looking at zim lately? i'm thinking of start a position now, it's trading at $27 and has a forward dividend of ~$26.. absolutely bonkers.

is that even legit? can a company pay out it's entire share price in dividends? the last dividend for this year will be in the $3-5 range, while the divident in march next year should be around $15-20

I'm short a $30 put in ZIM. I'll roll as long as credits are good or take shares to wheel it once they're not. The wild dividends are what made it so attractive to me too. I think someone in here mentioned it which is what put it on my radar.

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09-21-2022, 02:55 PM

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#248

heiltrump2024
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Originally Posted By SpeedCheeser⏩

I'm short a $30 put in ZIM. I'll roll as long as credits are good or take shares to wheel it once they're not. The wild dividends are what made it so attractive to me too. I think someone in here mentioned it which is what put it on my radar.

do they adjust their dividend though if share price plummets like this? the last time they paid $17 dividend, share price reached $90 - would they still pay that if share price was say, $20? seems ridiculous right?

09-21-2022, 03:04 PM

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#249

SpeedCheeser
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩

do they adjust their dividend though if share price plummets like this? the last time they paid $17 dividend, share price reached $90 - would they still pay that if share price was say, $20? seems ridiculous right?

I have no idea honestly. Didn't really do much research into the company. I think that was a bonus special dividend, but even regular dividends of ~$3 is a crazy good yield. Good enough that I'm willing to take a random gamble and just kinda see what happens. Dividends aren't really dependent on share price though. If the company is still making buckets of cash, then no reason they can't keep sending it to shareholders.

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09-21-2022, 03:06 PM

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#250

OT2000
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Goodbye stonks

I probably banged your mom.

Eat the whole animal like a real man.

09-21-2022, 03:09 PM

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#251

2020Wellness
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This market is a gift that keeps on giving for us long term guys.

trainingwithryan.substack.com

09-21-2022, 03:47 PM

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#252

chickenbroccoli
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩

This market is a gift that keeps on giving for us long term guys.

It’s only going to get better after we are in a recession

09-21-2022, 04:02 PM

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#253

dankydank
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How far this dumps is dependent on how much Apple and Tesla can drop. Those two are carrying indexes right now. Google, MSFT, Meta and Semiconductors at 52 weeks lows. Apple/Tesla/Amazon still a decent % above.

09-21-2022, 04:04 PM

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#254

GreatReset1
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩

This market is a gift that keeps on giving for us long term guys.

Not until the collapse of the entire US economy.

09-21-2022, 04:14 PM

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#255

e1739
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JFL if you don't think layoffs are happening. Every company currently has a hiring freeze on all new positions AND backfills. It's coming, boyos. Actually, it's already here and it's over.

09-21-2022, 04:22 PM

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#256

Carbonfibre
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since its doom and gloom atm

next time there is bear rally to upside.

why not short to the moon?

oh nvm its cause they are not letting it crash.

this is all stair step down again with chance to squeeze other way at any moment.

bottom will only come when Apple / Tesla come back to reality valuations

09-22-2022, 04:53 AM

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#257

camaleom
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩

Not only are companies not really laying off

zhitty business are laying off people... banks are still hiring (they always are tbh - project open: hire people project close: fire people)
Tech Industry: still struggling to find workers

and yeah salaries keep going up

amazon for example increase the base salary tech employees because they weren't being competitive with the market... the signing bonus, plus quarterly bonus plus shares wasn't cutting it (and in my mind still not cutting it because having all your benefits tight to bonus is just a way to keep u working 24/365 like slave to hit your targets)

"Paper money is going away" - EM

09-22-2022, 07:16 AM

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#258

Carbonfibre
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Its mixed bag atm.

The lag effect won't be known till next year Q1/Q2.

https://www.businessinsider.com/meta...layoffs-2022-9

09-22-2022, 07:32 AM

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#259

Destor
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩

zhitty business are laying off people... banks are still hiring (they always are tbh - project open: hire people project close: fire people)
Tech Industry: still struggling to find workers

and yeah salaries keep going up

amazon for example increase the base salary tech employees because they weren't being competitive with the market... the signing bonus, plus quarterly bonus plus shares wasn't cutting it (and in my mind still not cutting it because having all your benefits tight to bonus is just a way to keep u working 24/365 like slave to hit your targets)

My industry is also all about the labour shortages, we can't get enough people to execute projects in a timely manner

Currently trying to build a natural gas plant that is designed to power 300,000 homes

09-22-2022, 08:43 AM

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#260

camaleom
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩

Its mixed bag atm.

The lag effect won't be known till next year Q1/Q2.

https://www.businessinsider.com/meta...layoffs-2022-9

FANG employees are the less to worry about getting fired - the name alone make people look at your resume twice lol

"Paper money is going away" - EM

09-22-2022, 10:10 AM

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#261

dankydank
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Last time AMD and indexes had RSI this low they ripped 5+% the next few days. Could see a bounce coming soon but Apple/Tesla still to high. Maybe DCA into longer dated calls to play the bounce or stop sell and rebuy

09-22-2022, 10:21 AM

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#262

thatsnarf
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩

Last time AMD and indexes had RSI this low they ripped 5+% the next few days. Could see a bounce coming soon but Apple/Tesla still to high. Maybe DCA into longer dated calls to play the bounce or stop sell and rebuy

i have a buy order for AMD @ 70

09-22-2022, 10:56 AM

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#263

camaleom
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puts on affirm printing GREAT

"Paper money is going away" - EM

09-22-2022, 11:23 AM

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#264

dopamine72
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Anyone making quick trades with FUBO?

Been doing this multiple times lately in under $3 and out over $5

Its hitting that mark again but things are so fuked now I got a feeling it'll dip a lil more before I should buy

Thoughts?

Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240

09-22-2022, 11:36 AM

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#265

dopamine72
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@ Rob

Yo you called that FDX dip! Did you get in on those puts the other day?

Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240

09-22-2022, 11:46 AM

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#266

heiltrump2024
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if i wanted to buy calls today, dated 1 month out - wouldn't i be exposed to quicker volatility decay and options value decrease since vix is high? if so, do people buy calls like that knowing the risk if things don't work out?

also, is there any way to buy puts on vix? i see VIXM and VIXY on my brokerage but not sure if those are the same thing

09-22-2022, 12:15 PM

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#267

RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩

@ Rob

Yo you called that FDX dip! Did you get in on those puts the other day?

Nononono I was talking about Selling puts. Would not have gone well as you can tell lmao although they were solid for about a week!

I do have wags and ford puts. They doing fine.

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09-22-2022, 12:33 PM

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#268

dankydank
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩

if i wanted to buy calls today, dated 1 month out - wouldn't i be exposed to quicker volatility decay and options value decrease since vix is high? if so, do people buy calls like that knowing the risk if things don't work out?

also, is there any way to buy puts on vix? i see VIXM and VIXY on my brokerage but not sure if those are the same thing

VIX is a broken chithole, don’t touch it ded srs. Also Cathie out at ARK 🤣. Literal worst fund manager still probably has people willing to throw her billions to tell them TSLA 5k soon

09-22-2022, 12:39 PM

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#269

Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩

if i wanted to buy calls today, dated 1 month out - wouldn't i be exposed to quicker volatility decay and options value decrease since vix is high? if so, do people buy calls like that knowing the risk if things don't work out?

also, is there any way to buy puts on vix? i see VIXM and VIXY on my brokerage but not sure if those are the same thing

Use this to price out whatever options you want.

Than move the IV slider up/down to see how vol drop/rise will affect said options.

https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/

After yesterdays event FOMC which is massive market mover.

Market maker blows out spreads on bid ask to reduce their risk exposure. Hence why put and calls OTM were stupid expensive. This will reflect in VIX spike, since vix is just index that measures the volatility of sp 500 over 30 day period.

Right now day after there is lot of digestion in market. Notice no massive selling follow through or dip buying.

You would want to wait for next week to consider entering positions once everything settles.

High VIX levels cannot be sustained for while. You just need to check daily vix chart going back to last year. Everyone rushes in to grab protection after event happened. Dealers/MM just watch you decay to death on those expensive OTM puts or calls you bought when vix was high.

Also just no on trading vix options. Stick to SPY / QQQ / SPX