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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1679348703 03-21-2023, 01:58 PM
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#2881
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Having a hell of a time taking profits and trimming on this rally, fukin love it! Reminds me of 5 years ago lol

Trimmed more MSFT and NVDA today

Gainz through the roof!
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
see how this works
turn on fed printer again and market finds bid on everything
Jerome has no bad bone in his body to talk tough.
25 BPS is what he wanted since January and going into tmmrw is 99.5% lock atm.
inflation is gonna simmer and than jump back again in 4-5 months than history will repeat.
So we gon be red tomorrow cuz powell?

You think if powell buttfuks the market again btc will continue to rally?
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1679348913 03-21-2023, 02:03 PM
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#2882
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
So we gon be red tomorrow cuz powell?

You think if powell buttfuks the market again btc will continue to rally?
Nah everyone is aware 25 bps is on the menu and being served. But the printers flipped back on is equivalent to cutting rates something like 50-75 bps.

Dumped off 2/3 of my CCs on oil. Don’t have much hedging anymore since I closed my CCs on sofi and payo. Still got lots of CSP for sofi.
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post 1679349443 03-21-2023, 02:10 PM
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#2883
  1. Duckliver
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Looks like my 3 dte 25gme calls might pay out
post 1679351073 03-21-2023, 02:39 PM
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#2884
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Nah everyone is aware 25 bps is on the menu and being served. But the printers flipped back on is equivalent to cutting rates something like 50-75 bps.

Dumped off 2/3 of my CCs on oil. Don’t have much hedging anymore since I closed my CCs on sofi and payo. Still got lots of CSP for sofi.
So you think oil gonna go up again since you dumped most of your CC's?

I've been waiting for XOM to break thru its ATH again
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1679351433 03-21-2023, 02:48 PM
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#2885
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
see how this works

turn on fed printer again and market finds bid on everything

Jerome has no bad bone in his body to talk tough.

25 BPS is what he wanted since January and going into tmmrw is 99.5% lock atm.



inflation is gonna simmer and than jump back again in 4-5 months than history will repeat.
You seriously think inflation is going to ramp back up later this year?

Not sure what the Fed could do in such a situation. Would be carnage.
post 1679352203 03-21-2023, 03:05 PM
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#2886
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

sticky inflation will come back if you open the flood gates on markets.

month over month inflation has been holding steady.

they just provided sneaky QE

by injecting liquidity back into banks
post 1679352563 03-21-2023, 03:10 PM
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#2887
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Seems like the only potential saving grace there would be if banks actually substantially tighten up their lending after what has happened
post 1679352703 03-21-2023, 03:13 PM
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#2888
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^^^^

moral hazard 101

screw up and fed comes in to save the day.

yesterday they were even floating the idea how to provide insurance for every single depositor at any us bank.

that would cost like $18 Trillion some stupid crazy number.



even if Jerome tmmrw goes full hawk.

goes scorched earth they buying the dip.
post 1679352893 03-21-2023, 03:17 PM
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#2889
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
^^^^

moral hazard 101

screw up and fed comes in to save the day.

yesterday they were even floating the idea how to provide insurance for every single depositor at any us bank.

that would cost like $18 Trillion some stupid crazy number.



even if Jerome tmmrw goes full hawk.

goes scorched earth they buying the dip.
So in other words USD is fcked going forward?
post 1679353183 03-21-2023, 03:22 PM
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#2890
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
So in other words USD is fcked going forward?
short term maybe.

again ALL DEPENDS tmmrw on Jerome. the next 3 months are on the line tmmrw.

Every other central bank follows Fed to the T.

so ECB could back off hikes too if Fed pauses and starts cutting. usd can't lose that much.

lets assume 4-5 months down the road inflation comes back

fed has to hike again

usd goes up.




again

if you look at price of BTC / price of semi stocks / price of high growth stuff.

they are front running some sort of pivot pause / rate cutting from Fed.

they have been buying tech since Oct 2022.
post 1679353523 03-21-2023, 03:28 PM
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#2891
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Dats it I’m getting paid on the 25 gme calls boyos
post 1679354173 03-21-2023, 03:41 PM
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#2892
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
short term maybe.

again ALL DEPENDS tmmrw on Jerome. the next 3 months are on the line tmmrw.

Every other central bank follows Fed to the T.

so ECB could back off hikes too if Fed pauses and starts cutting. usd can't lose that much.

lets assume 4-5 months down the road inflation comes back

fed has to hike again

usd goes up.




again

if you look at price of BTC / price of semi stocks / price of high growth stuff.

they are front running some sort of pivot pause / rate cutting from Fed.

they have been buying tech since Oct 2022.
Sure but if he does 0.25, as widely expected, everything goes on as normal, no? No big reaction.
post 1679354193 03-21-2023, 03:41 PM
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#2893
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Originally Posted By Duckliver⏩
Dats it I’m getting paid on the 25 gme calls boyos
As opposed to your other calls that went to zero every other earnings before this?

Fun will begin tmmrw on GME if they can get it over $30 before it starts halting every few minutes

Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
Sure but if he does 0.25, as widely expected, everything goes on as normal, no? No big reaction.
Market has been front running this big FOMC tmmrw.

Risk of something crazy happening tmmrw is very very low atm.

Like seeing spy go 390 tmmrw atm is less than 1 percent chance.

Would legit require Jerome to say we are going to continue rate hiking till job is done and inflation gets back to 2%.




I will trade whatever comes next.

Market is stupid over priced but bias doesn't get you anything. You trade with whatever direction shiit is going.

or

Just buy and hold long term.







All I can tell you QE was done.

They just called it something else.

They bailed out bank that had ties to crypto.

BTC has been mooning since SIBV deposits were guaranteed for everyone.
post 1679354253 03-21-2023, 03:43 PM
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#2894
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
As opposed to your other calls that went to zero every other earnings before this?

Fun will begin tmmrw on GME if they can get it over $30 before it starts halting every few minutes
Yes !

I’m batting 1/6 if this goes through so that feels better than 0/7 !

Feelsgoodmayne
post 1679355453 03-21-2023, 04:08 PM
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#2895
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Originally Posted By Duckliver⏩
Yes !

I’m batting 1/6 if this goes through so that feels better than 0/7 !

Feelsgoodmayne
all on $30 if they can get it over that tmmrw

shiit could get 2021 again

unless they start halts again.



those calls should be up 3000% if you bought it today.
post 1679355983 03-21-2023, 04:21 PM
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#2896
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
So you think oil gonna go up again since you dumped most of your CC's?

I've been waiting for XOM to break thru its ATH again
I bought to close stuff for <$5/contract for April just didn’t wanna wait. But oil almost always goes up for the summer and $70 is government floor so I feel good about a temporary floor here. I like my OXY $55 CSP still.

Bought 30 Sept $2c for CANO at $10/each which seemed like a bargain if they get a $4 buyout. Got some Jan 24 $2c for $15.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1679357203 03-21-2023, 04:43 PM
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#2897
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
So you think oil gonna go up again since you dumped most of your CC's?

I've been waiting for XOM to break thru its ATH again
We had a discussion earlier about how interesting it is that the strategic petroleum reserve is not getting filled, despite that the biden admin said they would refill once fuel prices hit $70. Have been bullish on oil for last 3 yrs, but now thinking time to turn into a bear (no homo).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier...h=3d44db3a514e
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
You seriously think inflation is going to ramp back up later this year?

Not sure what the Fed could do in such a situation. Would be carnage.
Yeah hard to play catchup. Its like someone deciding to save for retirement when they are 50 yrs old.

Fed needs to stop being reactive. Should have stopped QE in early 2021, started small rate hikes mid 2021 as well as QT.
mo e
post 1679358663 03-21-2023, 05:06 PM
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#2898
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Regardless of what the Fed does, the market desperately hopes rates are coming down and I think that's what's feeding into the market more than anything else

The market only briefly started accepting reality around rate hikes staying higher for longer and then flipped HARD as soon as something happened that it perceived as ammunition for cuts. Relentlessly optimistic, hopeful, rates are coming down and multiples must go up. What happens tomorrow is much less important than the market likely being wrong about what's happening later this year or maybe even next year.
post 1679361973 03-21-2023, 06:13 PM
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#2899
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

sticky inflation will come back if you open the flood gates on markets.

month over month inflation has been holding steady.

they just provided sneaky QE

by injecting liquidity back into banks
What do you mean exactly by sticky inflation? As in grocery store prices won't roll back, and the social security bumps?

A random thought-experiment. Technology is inherently deflationary, but it is the primary source of growth. Implications?
post 1679364363 03-21-2023, 06:55 PM
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#2900
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Sticky as in strong consumer spending will keep prices higher, no need to cut prices when demand is so strong and labor costs are covered.

Grocery prices will never roll back.

The only fight they have is not having inflation move higher and higher MoM.

Job is not done on inflation. Market reacted like its over.


As for stick inflation check here

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-offi...-hot-1.1887970


Check graph here

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORESTICKM159SFRBATL



Tomorrow Fed will also give dot plot.

That is the only guide you will get out of fed that gets updated ever 3 months.

If that drops than mortgage rates drop.

Etc.
post 1679365463 03-21-2023, 07:18 PM
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#2901
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Originally Posted By Arem24⏩
What do you mean exactly by sticky inflation? As in grocery store prices won't roll back, and the social security bumps?

A random thought-experiment. Technology is inherently deflationary, but it is the primary source of growth. Implications?
Prices of a gallon of gas have only started dropping even though barrels of oil have been sub$80 for a loooong time. House prices have hardly budged even though interest rates have doubled. Rents going up only slightly but still up. Bottom end jobs going up slowly pushes everything else up. Lots of union contracts locked in for 3-5 years confirming wages will grow at 5% clip if not more across various industries.

Fed gotta do the economy dirty this summer or inflation isn’t going to go away. This banking thing isn’t the fed’s problem. Banks can and should go under if they are incapable of calculating risk properly and maintaining a reasonable cash cushion. Banks have been doing everything as if rate cuts are coming because they are trying to force the fed to cut due to their poor business decisions.
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post 1679366773 03-21-2023, 07:48 PM
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#2902
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Nah everyone is aware 25 bps is on the menu and being served. But the printers flipped back on is equivalent to cutting rates something like 50-75 bps.

Dumped off 2/3 of my CCs on oil. Don’t have much hedging anymore since I closed my CCs on sofi and payo. Still got lots of CSP for sofi.
Looks like 25 indeed. Who knows what will actually happen. I've been following a mad lad who has been pretty accurate in his predictions reading tea leaves and it's been quite profitable even though TA is astrology. Can't see hikes dropping, it's recession with 6% inflation or later on 9% inflation if the hikes stop and we go full dove mode.

post 1679385803 03-22-2023, 07:27 AM
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#2903
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FOMO by not adding more GME yesterday
post 1679386843 03-22-2023, 07:49 AM
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#2904
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Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust⏩
FOMO by not adding more GME yesterday
Feel like it's another 1 day pump and then we wait another 2 months to get a +50% boost. Not a bad strategy topping up at 15-16 and then waiting for that magical day.
post 1679386953 03-22-2023, 07:52 AM
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#2905
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I really hope nobody is guessing on what you think Fed rate hike or cut is going to be or following some tradingview guru.


Always be using this site.

These calculations are based on what bond guys are betting huge money on. Like $30+ million bets on single event.

Predictions on here are 100% correct every time. Never been wrong.

Fed has never gone against what it says here.

87% today is 25BPS

That is a lock for today.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html


Also whatever happens today.

The trade after is gonna be playing out for weeks and weeks out.


Chances are high that there is good volatility than the real trade will be done tmmrw/next week etc.
post 1679387723 03-22-2023, 08:02 AM
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#2906
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Inflation in the UK jumps back up to 10.4% against an expected drop to 9.9%

man those are crazy numbers. In Alberta specifically the latest February CPI read was at 3.6%, but the provincial government here is subsidizing a bunch of stuff with oil $$$ like removing the gasoline tax, handing out energy rebates, etc
post 1679389883 03-22-2023, 08:33 AM
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#2907
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I really hope nobody is guessing on what you think Fed rate hike or cut is going to be or following some tradingview guru.


Always be using this site.

These calculations are based on what bond guys are betting huge money on. Like $30+ million bets on single event.

Predictions on here are 100% correct every time. Never been wrong.

Fed has never gone against what it says here.

87% today is 25BPS

That is a lock for today.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html


Also whatever happens today.

The trade after is gonna be playing out for weeks and weeks out.


Chances are high that there is good volatility than the real trade will be done tmmrw/next week etc.
Probably aimed at me, didn't really want to go deep into it but he looks at OI, Delta, general macro trends, bonds, opex, hedging yields and other cool words you might know - that's why I've been keeping an eye on him as most of your TA boiz are in the markets since 2021 and know it all. Not saying this to convince you or anyone else, just what I look for as I CBF spending hours a day finding these intricate details.

For whoever cares

Spoiler!
https://www.reddit.com/user/vazdooh/...a1/spy_update/
post 1679391513 03-22-2023, 08:59 AM
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#2908
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In the end the Fed is financial gravity but investing still needs to be about finding great businesses -- that will survive regardless -- and buying them at reasonable prices
post 1679392513 03-22-2023, 09:18 AM
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#2909
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Originally Posted By Schnitzl⏩
Probably aimed at me, didn't really want to go deep into it but he looks at OI, Delta, general macro trends, bonds, opex, hedging yields and other cool words you might know - that's why I've been keeping an eye on him as most of your TA boiz are in the markets since 2021 and know it all. Not saying this to convince you or anyone else, just what I look for as I CBF spending hours a day finding these intricate details.

For whoever cares

Spoiler!
https://www.reddit.com/user/vazdooh/...a1/spy_update/
I wasn't taking dig more trying to remove guess work that most posters here that are trying to guess what fed will do.

The answer is on that link for today.

That link is the real source that hedge funds / big boys everyone uses.


As for using some guy for trading plan no problem on that if it works use it.
post 1679403223 03-22-2023, 12:09 PM
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#2910
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25 points it is.
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